Author Topic: Masianello  (Read 3858 times)

Sputnik

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Masianello
« on: December 24, 2015, 12:58:19 PM »

See attach file:

Thanks to Victor for translation.


 

Reyth

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Re: Masianello
« Reply #1 on: December 24, 2015, 03:02:21 PM »
Thanks! : D
 

Reyth

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Re: Masianello
« Reply #2 on: January 05, 2016, 06:28:26 PM »
I programmed this based on a 20 unit win target and a 100 unit stop loss.
Further checking code for errors...

Code: [Select]
1 ' red=low/1, black=high/2, white=no bet/0
10 DIM bs(11, 11), ld(5)
15 x = 1: y = 1
20 r = INT(RND * 37)
30 IF b = 0 THEN 80 'bet is neutral
40 IF b = 1 THEN 120 'bet is low

50 'process high bet
60 IF r > 18 THEN x = x + 1: GOTO 160 'bet housekeeping
70 y = y + 1: GOTO 160 'bet housekeeping

80 'process neutral bet
90 IF r > 18 THEN x = x + 1: b = 2: GOTO 160 'bet housekeeping
100 IF r = 0 THEN 160 'bet housekeeping
110 y = y + 1: b = 1: GOTO 160 'bet housekeeping

120 'process low bet
130 IF r <> 0 AND r < 19 THEN y = y + 1: GOTO 160 'bet housekeeping
140 IF r = 0 THEN 160 'bet housekeeping
150 x = x + 1: GOTO 160 'bet housekeeping

160 'bet housekeeping for all bets
170 'check for neutral & set b to 0
180 'check for exit and record victory/loss

190 IF x = y THEN b = 0: IF x = 11 THEN l = l + 1: ls = ls + 1: GOTO 210 'output
200 IF x = 12 OR y = 12 THEN w = w + 1: GOSUB 1000: b = 0: x = 1: y = 1: GOTO 210 'output

210 'output
215 IF w < 16000000 THEN 20
220 LOCATE 1, 1: PRINT "Wins:"; w
230 PRINT "Losses:"; l
240 PRINT "Loss Streaks:"; ml
250 IF w >= 16000000 THEN GOSUB 2000: END
260 GOTO 20

1000 'loss streak management
1010 IF ml < ls THEN ml = ls
1020 ld(ls) = ld(ls) + 1: ls = 0: RETURN

2000 FOR i = 1 TO 5
2010 PRINT ld(i);: NEXT i: RETURN


Appears error free now but to be certain an output file needs to be created.  The output file revealed further errors which have now been corrected.  The loss streak is now 9 and when the grid is doubled it drops to 6 and tripling doesn't change it.

« Last Edit: January 06, 2016, 07:06:11 PM by Reyth »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Masianello
« Reply #3 on: January 05, 2016, 07:00:16 PM »
Quote
After 3 losses in a row, a person could throw their entire bank balance against the wheel.  The chances of 3 losses in a row is 100 out of 16,262,036 which is a 99.9994% chance of winning after 2 losses in a row

Why 3 losses in a row have such astronomical odds to happen??
You may encounter much longer losing streaks by betting EC's, am I missing something?! ::)
 

Reyth

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Re: Masianello
« Reply #4 on: January 05, 2016, 07:11:36 PM »
Yes slight error in code, fixing now.  Check again the first post by refreshing etc...
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Masianello
« Reply #5 on: January 05, 2016, 07:16:17 PM »
Yes slight error in code, fixing now.  Check again the first post by refreshing etc...

This is how many misconceptions are being borned, besides it's just a progression afterall.
 

Reyth

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Re: Masianello
« Reply #6 on: January 05, 2016, 07:21:23 PM »
Well I have played it a little bit and it is quite counter-intuitive in its approach, it raises crazily and either forces the wheel to give it substantial profit through a streak and then it starts to lower its bets or it retreats successively until a streak occurs.  Ultimately, all it needs is 1 bet out of balance (10-10) and it will win; only 10 wins balanced by 10 losses, loses but the loss is only 100 units whereas with the Martingale you lose your whole bankroll!
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Masianello
« Reply #7 on: January 05, 2016, 07:43:45 PM »

After many years of gambling I have realized that the factor of risk and reward ratio is the most important, you cannot have one without the other, additionally the more the reward you strive for, the more risk you must afford to accept.
Betting more for plenty smaller wins or betting less for fewer larger wins makes no difference under the house edge perspective, the only difference it could be made by the betting selections, or in other words the betting criteria.
 

Reyth

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Re: Masianello
« Reply #8 on: January 05, 2016, 07:56:20 PM »
What I find amazing is that a 20 unit profit to 100 unit loss is 20% and the win rate is 83.89%, so if you factor in the house edge we see an advantage of 1.19%!  I think they designed it like this deliberately!
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Masianello
« Reply #9 on: January 05, 2016, 08:09:56 PM »
What I find amazing is that a 20 unit profit to 100 unit loss is 20% and the win rate is 83.89%, so if you factor in the house edge we see an advantage of 1.19%!  I think they designed it like this deliberately!

Can you please explain me why the win rate is 83.89% ?
This is just a PROGRESSION, so since it doesn't tell you what to bet how could you arrive to 83.89% ??!
You see theoritically any EC has the same chance to appear 18/37, but every time the wheel spins one of the two sides wins and the other loses, so by selecting black instead of red could make the whole difference.
There is not any progression in the world which can make you winner regardless of the events.
 

Reyth

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Re: Masianello
« Reply #10 on: January 05, 2016, 08:41:31 PM »
Well the progression is not separate from the betting system, I get the feeling that the bet amount is ALWAYS calculated with the number of bets remaining and their structure in mind.  It is very clear that the system will win by doing the following:

A) Initially finding a streak and betting very heavily and successively into it, using the profits to create a favorable betting millieu which increases the odds of success

OR

B) Successively retreating bet after bet until a streak is found and performing A

OR

C) Simply cornering the wheel with a single bet after having failed 9 times in a row with A & B

Basically, A & B is a combined system that takes 9 successive shots at finding a streak.  I heard someone say that the chances of bets lining up in bunches is greater than choppy bets but I have no idea how that even makes any sense, so instead, I think the key here is NINE SUCCESSIVE ATTEMPTS which means the odds must line up with 9 failures in a row which is where the 83.89% comes in. 

Looking at 18 stations and checking the percentage of hitting within the 9th bet is 99.75%.  C appears to be a last ditch effort to save everything in a single shot which is obviously used as a backup when things have gone wrong.

That's the only explanation I have.
« Last Edit: January 05, 2016, 08:46:05 PM by Reyth »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Masianello
« Reply #11 on: January 05, 2016, 09:12:17 PM »
Now that have understood it clearly is not that bad!:-)
 

Reyth

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Re: Masianello
« Reply #12 on: January 05, 2016, 11:28:46 PM »
Ya if you like Paroli based strategies this one is a great one for that!  It takes Paroli to a whole new level betting money it doesn't even have lol.

Here is an interesting idea that has been forwarded by the same guy that invented D'Alembert Avenue.  The concept behind all of his systems is that outside bets pay 1:1 and with the house edge, it makes it impossible to get ahead for a prolonged period. 

Instead of the outside bets he advocates inside bets, DS or better to simulate the same percentage.  So in other words, if you put one unit on a DS and spin 3 times you have the same percentage chance of hitting as if you had bet red/black odd/even etc. but your payout is 5:3 instead of 1:1 which represents a 66% increase in earnings for the same risk.

Now, the reason I bring this up is because the Masianello is designed for EC bets.  Well, what if I played a DS and spun 3 times for each cell and pretended I was always in red or high or low etc. and just followed the progression?  I would get a much higher payout, right?

Well I just wanted to document this strategy so I don't forget. ; )

Here are the stats on the various betting types:

EC: 1 spin 1:1
DS: 4 spins 5:4
Quad: 7 spins 8:7
Street: 9 spins 11:9
Split: 13 spins 17:13
Straight Up: 26 spins 35:26

Its kind of weird because you would expect that a double street is 6 numbers and so you spin it 3 times and you get the equivalent coverage and percentage chance as if you spun an EC once but according to the statistics which are compiled by actual wheel results, a true 50% chance doesn't occur until 4 spins and not 3 and a similar difference exists with each of the various bet types.  I truly don't have an explanation for this but I will follow the proven statistics over my own thoughts and feelings any day. : )
« Last Edit: January 06, 2016, 12:47:12 AM by Reyth »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Masianello
« Reply #13 on: January 06, 2016, 01:08:30 AM »
Ya if you like Paroli based strategies this one is a great one for that!  It takes Paroli to a whole new level betting money it doesn't even have lol.

Here is an interesting idea that has been forwarded by the same guy that invented D'Alembert Avenue.  The concept behind all of his systems is that outside bets pay 1:1 and with the house edge, it makes it impossible to get ahead for a prolonged period. 

Instead of the outside bets he advocates inside bets, DS or better to simulate the same percentage.  So in other words, if you put one unit on a DS and spin 3 times you have the same percentage chance of hitting as if you had bet red/black odd/even etc. but your payout is 5:3 instead of 1:1 which represents a 66% increase in earnings for the same risk.

Now, the reason I bring this up is because the Masianello is designed for EC bets.  Well, what if I played a DS and spun 3 times for each cell and pretended I was always in red or high or low etc. and just followed the progression?  I would get a much higher payout, right?

Well I just wanted to document this strategy so I don't forget. ; )

Here are the stats on the various betting types:

EC: 1 spin 1:1
DS: 4 spins 5:4
Street: 9 spins 11:9
Split: 13 spins 17:13
Straight Up: 26 spins 35:26

Its kind of weird because you would expect that a double street is 6 numbers and so you spin it 3 times and you get the equivalent coverage and percentage chance as if you spun an EC once but according to the statistics which are compiled by actual wheel results, a true 50% chance doesn't occur until 4 spins and not 3 and a similar difference exists with each of the various bet types.  I truly don't have an explanation for this but I will follow the proven statistics over my own thoughts and feelings any day. : )

This guy is right,think it this way:

EC=18 numbers and payout 1 to 1
dozen/column=12 numbers,which is 33.33% less numbers but the payout is 100% more 1 to 2 (100-33.33=66.66% advantage)

Sixline=6 numbers, which is 50% less numbers,but payout is 200% more 1 to 5 (200-50=150% advantage)

Corner=4 numbers, which is 33.33% less numbers but payout is 50% more 1 to 8 (50-33.33= 16.66% advantage)

Street=3 numbers, which is 25% less numbers but payout is 33.33% more 1 to 11 (33.33-25=8.33% advantage)

Split=2 numbers, which is 33.33% less numbers but payout is 50% more 1 to 17 (50-33.33=16.66% advantage)

Single=1 number, which is 50% less numbers but payout is 100% more 1 to 35 (100-50=50% advantage)

Let's calculate the accumulated advantage from EC to single: 66.66 + 150 + 16.66 + 8.33 + 16.66 + 50 = 308.33%
Seems that betting straight up numbers is much better option than betting an EC.
 

Reyth

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Re: Masianello
« Reply #14 on: January 06, 2016, 02:41:53 AM »
Ya its like nobody on the internet seems to be telling people this, lol. 

What you hear over and over again though is how roulette can't be beaten and how the worst bets to make are the inside bets because they have the worst odds and how you should give up but if you are going to play for fun to stay in the game for a long time you should only play red or black or high or low because it will make your money last the longest it can before you lose it all.  And all that drivel along with the GF BS is replicated like across 100's of websites all saying the same thing. LOL.

Its so kewl how you can spin a DS 4 times and get better odds than an EC but it pays 5-1 LOL! : D

Oh wait >.<  What was I thinking!?  You can't get better odds than an EC with any other bet than an EC bc of the GF and your odds will always be fixed in place based on the numbers bet and payout; dang I must of been hallucinating there for awhile.  Glad I have all those websites across the internet to keep me sane.



This dynamic progression system so totally rocks a DS too!  Its like it makes roulette whey more exciting how aggressively it bets! : D
« Last Edit: January 06, 2016, 03:01:58 AM by Reyth »