Author Topic: What is a system/strategy??  (Read 3231 times)

BlueAngel

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What is a system/strategy??
« on: December 16, 2015, 05:32:39 AM »
It has been a while since my last post and I know you've missed me!:-D
Anyway,I would like to share my thoughts with you that's why I've decided to start this topic.

What does it mean I'm using a strategy and/or a system?
Does it mean that I'm following a specific betting pattern under certain conditions?
Does it mean that I'm betting in a certain way?

If yes,then why this way is better than random betting?
For example,let's say that I wait for a dozen/column to repeat 2 times and then I'm going to bet the other 2 dozens/columns, why this way is better than betting randomly 12 numbers which may or may not belong in 2 dozens/columns? WHY?

Does roulette results follow a certain logic?
We,the gamblers acting according logic and emotion, but roulette has neither of these 2 elements.
A strategy/system satisfies a certain condition, but is there any condition which satisfies ALL situations?

I think there is NOT 1 condition fits ALL, because the results are alternating conditions all the time.
No matter what you bet or the way you bet, there is always the opposite side.

I believe for a while everyone could be a winner but when the results are changing against the way we play, then we should change our way too instead of going against the flow.
I believe in gambling timing is everything!
Let's say John went to the casino yesterday and he was betting number 24 for 200 spins till he depleted his entire bankroll, how unfortunate for him,don't you think?!
Let's say Mary played at the same casino today the number 24 and after 5 spins she won.
So what do you think number 24 is?
Is it a good bet or bad??

What benefits one could gain by playing with a strategy/system rather than randomly?
Is it better because it helps us to decide?
Does it offer a false sense of safety?

From the other hand luck is good WHEN it's with us, BUT it's NOT always on our way.
Is there a way to control luck?
Would/could you control the outcomes?
Could you change the payouts?

If your answers are NO to the above questions, then you are on the right way, keep going.
So what do we really control?
When to start and to stop,bet selection and bet amount.
The factor "when" should determine the bet selection and the bet selection should determine the bet amount.

Think it this way, each and every time the wheel and the ball are spinning ONE number comes which belongs to several betting divisions...for example number 3 it belongs to the following divisions:LOW,RED,ODD,1ST DOZEN,3RD COLUMN,1ST LINE,1ST STREET,2ND QUAD,2ND SPLIT.
EVERY number is 100% certainty that it will appear sooner or later, so why not everybody wins?
There is a "distance" between our bet and the desired result,this distance cannot be overcome by some and by the most for the majority of the times.

What a progression does? Isn't that it tries to "bridge" our selection towards the desired result?
Let's say you had a certain way to predict accurately or manipulate outcomes, would a progression be irrelevant for you??
What good is a progression when you know when and what to bet, right?
But how could anyone predict the event which haven't happened yet?
Some prefer the non appeared while others the most appeared,but does it really means anything?

Personally I've seen a number to repeat within short time and after disappeared for long time and another one to repeat within a few spins and from then to hit oftenly,more than its probability.
So does it really (what happened) indicates what's going to happen?
What the f...k do we know?!
An undeniable fact is that the more the repeats,the more the sleepers or fewer with longer naps.
And I think to myself,instead of waiting someone to wake up,why not to play with someone who's already active?
Would you agree?
When wakes up then I could play with it,but why to wait when something is always active,is happening during my play time? There is no reason to wait for something particular, just be flexible and add more options,alternative ways.
There are methods which win when a sector is hot,while others when a sector is cold,why to choose one when the winners can come from both??
It might sound vague or even crazy but win has no name,has no colors,it only knows how to change from one point to the next.
There is a quote: "there are no perfect actions,only perfect intentions..." the same happens with roulette, you see the ball has the intention to meet the needs of every number on the wheel, BUT somewhere on the way satisfies more than once a few,while some others remain with a bitter taste...

No matter what's your bet selection is,check if you were playing the EXACT OPPOSITE how good it would be against your main selection.
Let's say you bet a dozen,try to bet 12 random numbers to see if the results would be better,same or worst.
I wrote many questions,but don't forget 1, what do we really know?!


 

scepticus

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Re: What is a system/strategy??
« Reply #1 on: December 18, 2015, 01:20:36 AM »

You can never accurately predict the outcome of a random event but by using a "system" or " strategy" -which we usually define as a " Method"  means selections are fully automatic  - no judgement is required on behalf of the Bettor  - and is the work  of less than a minute.

" RANDOM  "-- not following any prearranged order   You can never accurately predict the outcome of a random event  so - inevitably - any prediction is a gamble. Most gamblers tend to overestimate their odds of winning and so tend to overbet.
I agree that timing-"WHEN " to start and "STOP" is what we should aim for but we can never know for certain.
I also, agree with "Bet Selection" but I don't understand your point that bet selection should  dictate the Bet amount .
It seems to me that BA that you and I are kindred spirits !
 

BlueAngel

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Re: What is a system/strategy??
« Reply #2 on: December 18, 2015, 02:15:12 AM »

You can never accurately predict the outcome of a random event but by using a "system" or " strategy" -which we usually define as a " Method"  means selections are fully automatic  - no judgement is required on behalf of the Bettor  - and is the work  of less than a minute.

" RANDOM  "-- not following any prearranged order   You can never accurately predict the outcome of a random event  so - inevitably - any prediction is a gamble. Most gamblers tend to overestimate their odds of winning and so tend to overbet.
I agree that timing-"WHEN " to start and "STOP" is what we should aim for but we can never know for certain.
I also, agree with "Bet Selection" but I don't understand your point that bet selection should  dictate the Bet amount .
It seems to me that BA that you and I are kindred spirits !

You and me are the only persons who are not completely fools around here!????
 

scepticus

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Re: What is a system/strategy??
« Reply #3 on: December 18, 2015, 02:37:18 AM »

There are a number of members who are not fools BA
It  is all too easy to identify with a particular idea and give loyalty to it but I think it is dangerous to take it  to the extreme of having a closed mind to other ideas and denigrate others for no other reason that they hold a different view.
You and I win so let others  win also.
 

BlueAngel

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Re: What is a system/strategy??
« Reply #4 on: December 18, 2015, 04:05:36 AM »

There are a number of members who are not fools BA
It  is all too easy to identify with a particular idea and give loyalty to it but I think it is dangerous to take it  to the extreme of having a closed mind to other ideas and denigrate others for no other reason that they hold a different view.
You and I win so let others  win also.

I was kidding but you didn't understand.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: What is a system/strategy??
« Reply #5 on: December 20, 2015, 09:46:23 PM »
Every system has the feature that  the  w/l graphic is a wave. The experience player knows when start and finish an event. In general you have to start after a virtual loss  and stop in time after a real  profit.

systems and stategies are no synomyn!!!
 

BlueAngel

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Re: What is a system/strategy??
« Reply #6 on: December 20, 2015, 11:39:10 PM »
Every system has the feature that  the  w/l graphic is a wave. The experience player knows when start and finish an event. In general you have to start after a virtual loss  and stop in time after a real  profit.

systems and stategies are no synomyn!!!

Of course are NOT synonym, neither I said so.

But could you establish a strategy without any system??
 

scepticus

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Re: What is a system/strategy??
« Reply #7 on: December 21, 2015, 01:26:41 AM »
I agree with BA here Dobbelsteen.
You need a "system" to develop a "strategy".
I think a " system" is  the  idea and the " strategy " is the application of that idea and together these are "The Method ".
Your " idea " is to ride the waves  and your " strategy" is to  wait for the "wave " to finish receding and hope to catch it on the upturn  and bet with a progression - taken  together this  is  your Method.
The important thing is to try to  understand what members are  saying in their posts.
Nor do I agree that  we need to start after a virtual loss. I don't.
I do agree that we should leave at an acceptable profit - though views may differ as to what is an acceptable profit.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2015, 01:28:25 AM by scepticus »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: What is a system/strategy??
« Reply #8 on: December 21, 2015, 02:00:46 AM »
I agree with BA here Dobbelsteen.
You need a "system" to develop a "strategy".
I think a " system" is  the  idea and the " strategy " is the application of that idea and together these are "The Method ".
Your " idea " is to ride the waves  and your " strategy" is to  wait for the "wave " to finish receding and hope to catch it on the upturn  and bet with a progression - taken  together this  is  your Method.
The important thing is to try to  understand what members are  saying in their posts.
Nor do I agree that  we need to start after a virtual loss. I don't.
I do agree that we should leave at an acceptable profit - though views may differ as to what is an acceptable profit.

What's acceptable for you?
I believe in the balance, a good example is the risk of ruin.
No matter how much a bankroll is, the risk of ruin tests equally every method.
If for example you double your initial bankroll and then double it again without ever losing it, then your method is at least interesting.
It doesn't really matter if your bankroll is 100 or 10,000 units, all that matters is the proportion.
I know that many gamblers would disagree by stating that a high capital of say 10,000 could easily do 100 and it has some merit BUT how many times you have to win in order to recover from a loss??
So my opinion is that it's just false sense of safety, the same goes for winning only 1 unit per session...
A bad losing streak could happen from the start, it might be rare but it can and will happen and then gone all of your 1's units.
The key to victory is not solely in the amounts/quantities...
Do yourself a favor and regardless of the method/bankroll you are using, make a risk of ruin test, you could have been lucky but something which can be repeated time and time again it cannot be by accident...
« Last Edit: December 21, 2015, 02:03:01 AM by BlueAngel »
 

scepticus

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Re: What is a system/strategy??
« Reply #9 on: December 21, 2015, 02:48:01 AM »
I have a table bankroll of 80 with a reserve of 10 so I cannot lose more than 90 - fractionally likely actually because  the extra 10 is to top up a bet which may be just over 80.
An acceptable  profit to me is 18 units which is less than 20% of my table bank but I usually win more than that at a table. So far as I am concerned  the only stats that matter are the win/loss stats . In other word, I put my money where my mouth is.
I agree with you that consistency  is needed . More often than not  I  make  a profit - so much so that I  offered to visit another member's casino to prove it. I may have lost but I don't think so. My motive  was to show that HE had not mastered the art of Wheel Watching  and to show that we Method players are not the dumbasses  they claim we are. I accept that I may lose eventually but no one can tell me when that " eventually"  will happen.
   
I don't run a ruin test because  I believe you  must input figures into the necessary equation which gives you the risk of ruin. So far as I am concerned a 37 spin cycle is all that is needed and there is no maths geek that will claim that you cannot win in a 37 spin cycle. It is purely a matter of conjecture .
 We should be honest enough to say that we don't know rather than claim any form of certainty.
We guess - everyone guesses  - because where Random rules we have no other option. The odds against us is a factor but not the main factor or some online casinos would not have offered a "No Zero " table.
All gambling is about guessing  and we on this forum  ARE gamblers so I think it is absolutely stupid for  the  self- styled Advantage Play Enthusiasts to come to this forum and tell us that we are GAMBLING  !!!
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: What is a system/strategy??
« Reply #10 on: December 21, 2015, 10:24:03 AM »
A system is not a method. A system has fixed rules and is mostly very simple to program and simulate .
A strategy is based on statistic knowledge and different signals to start and finissh events.Succes of strategies depends also on talent, experience and skill of the player.

This also the reason you can find a lot of describtions of system but not of strategies. It is more easier to demonstrate a strategy than an explanation.

I use systems to broad my knowledge o f the features of the roulette.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2015, 10:30:07 AM by dobbelsteen »
 

scepticus

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Re: What is a system/strategy??
« Reply #11 on: December 21, 2015, 01:46:14 PM »
Dobbelsteen
WHO claims that a system IS a strategy ?
Apart from Advantage Play Enthusiasts .

 

dobbelsteen

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Re: What is a system/strategy??
« Reply #12 on: December 21, 2015, 09:19:54 PM »
Nobody claims that a system is equal to a strategy but in the discussions there is much misunderstanding.
Especial the AP adherens claim that on the long run systems and strategies has a negative edge.
 The long run result of a system is a 2,7 % loss. The result of a strategy depends on the skill and the experience of the player.
 

Harryj

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Re: What is a system/strategy??
« Reply #13 on: December 23, 2015, 12:25:43 PM »
     I cast my vote with Dobbel on this. A system relies on a powerful progression to "browbeat" the casino into submission. A stategy on the other hand relies on "bet selection" and timeing. The progression used is generally short , to spread the risk over several spins.
         Sometimes it is not easy to tell them apart. Dobbel's SSB might at first seem to rely on that 10 step progression. In fact the bet selection is more important. It makes the 10 step progressionequivilent to 20 steps !.

        Harry
« Last Edit: December 23, 2015, 12:27:18 PM by Harryj »
 

scepticus

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Re: What is a system/strategy??
« Reply #14 on: December 23, 2015, 07:02:30 PM »
     I cast my vote with Dobbel on this. A system relies on a powerful progression to "browbeat" the casino into submission. A stategy on the other hand relies on "bet selection" and timeing. The progression used is generally short , to spread the risk over several spins.
         Sometimes it is not easy to tell them apart. Dobbel's SSB might at first seem to rely on that 10 step progression. In fact the bet selection is more important. It makes the 10 step progressionequivilent to 20 steps !.

        Harry
Harry
I find Dobbelsteen's idea/s unclear. At times he talks about analysing  the last 50 numbers to find an anomaly and at other times -as you think- he bets that the last 10 colours  won't repeat in that order.
Whichever  of his ideas you go with, I think his basic idea is the "system" while his betting is his "strategy" so I don't agree with your opinion that a strategy rests  entirely on "bet selection".
Depending on whichever of my own ideas I choose to use I sometimes "Wait" and sometimes jump in right away so  bet selection advocates do not always rely on "timing".
Anyway, where have you been the last few weeks ? Hopefully  you are  keeping well.