Author Topic: Simple Street  (Read 7202 times)

Reyth

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Simple Street
« on: December 13, 2015, 06:55:07 AM »


I started this yesterday with 7500 units and just cleared 15K at only 250 units per win.  Doubling up is most certainly a tremendous landmark but the risk involved is also important to examine.

After 16M wins, 364308 losses were encountered.  The maximum loss streaks are 2 and the total number of times that 2 loss streaks occurred was 3774.  The following conclusions can be drawn:

1) This system has a 97.7737647 win rate.
2) The maximum expected loss streak is 2.
    2a) The chances of 2 losses in a row is .000230623867504816 which is 1 in 4,329.

I won 7500 units without seeing a single loss and the farthest I went in debt management was level 3 (see below).  Starting with 1750 units, the originator of this system won 18171 units in a month without busting out.

Even though the chances of losing is remote, the consequences are severe; a loss represents 7500 units.  If you play in a penny casino, you can reduce this to only $75 to start and raise the betting units from your profits.

I just watched the computer (using step by step) go from 7500 units to 18K, although I did see it hit the 4th level of debt recovery. 

I just now witnessed an "early" bust out (before the computer could earn a ton of cash) and it was quite the battle royale but once the bust out hit, the computer was gaining profits too slowly and it kept getting peppered by more debt recovery attacks which postponed its earnings and this went on for a LONG time until finally another bust out hit and it went 2k negative.

The bust out is catastrophic once it hits because the "incredibly rapid growth of profits" suddenly appears as if its a crawl compared to the imminent threat of another bust out; I mean going up 1 or 2k is FANTASTIC unless your account is crippled and another bust out will wipe you out -- I mean you need thousands as if they are hundreds. 

This is the backlash of the debt recovery system it has the power to create so much profit so quickly until its walls are broken down and  then it can't even hope to create it fast enough.  The only way to win is to stave off the bust out indefinitely.

Despite the success that I have seen and experienced, I strongly suspect that this system is only a pipe dream as a consistent money winner.  This is because even though the win rate is augmented by almost 40% through the debt management system, that still isn't enough to cover the losses once they hit and eventually repeat.

Check out Bullseye here: http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=648.msg8589#msg8589
« Last Edit: April 13, 2016, 10:07:12 PM by Reyth »


 
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Reyth

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Re: Simple Street
« Reply #1 on: December 13, 2015, 07:05:30 AM »




1) Choose your favorite street and stick to it for all bets
2) Set a session target for 250 units of profit
3) Set a stop loss of 500 units of loss
4) Start betting with one unit
5) When you lose raise the bet 1 unit
6) When you win lower the bet by 10 units (or return to 1 unit)
7) Continue until you either win 250 units (start again with #2) or must make a bet that will bring you below 500 units of loss
8] After your first 500 units of loss, continue betting using the following schedule:

Bet Increments: 2,3,4,5

........Risk......Profit
2)$1000...$500   
3)$1500...$750 
4)$2000...$1000
5)$2500...$1250

9) From your current balance, first establish a new profit target of 500 units and a new stop loss of 1000 units (line #2)
10) Now bet the bet increment amount, raising and lowering (bet increment *10) that amount (instead of 1 unit)
11) If you win return to 1 unit and a new session
12) If you lose move downward one line and increase the bet increment by 1
13) If you win move upward one line and decrease the bet increment by 1

To keep the previously stated statistics in place, it is important to follow these instructions precisely as they have been tested over 16M won sessions.
« Last Edit: December 13, 2015, 07:42:54 AM by Reyth »
 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: Simple Street
« Reply #2 on: December 13, 2015, 12:35:27 PM »
Sorry I do not understand anything. No explanation of the system or the stategy. Hoh do you make your decissions. The time we wager with money is  a very long time ago . We can only wager with jetons chips units or credits . I hav never seen dolars on the table. After a playing session  I change my chips for money.
 SSB promises a profit of about  to units for a 150 spins session.The system does not promises a ptofit of 7000 dollares. Do you understand  this point?
 

scepticus

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Re: Simple Street
« Reply #3 on: December 13, 2015, 04:41:02 PM »




1) Choose your favorite street and stick to it for all bets
2) Set a session target for 250 units of profit
3) Set a stop loss of 500 units of loss
4) Start betting with one unit
5) When you lose raise the bet 1 unit
6) When you win lower the bet by 10 units (or return to 1 unit)
7) Continue until you either win 250 units (start again with #2) or must make a bet that will bring you below 500 units of loss
8] After your first 500 units of loss, continue betting using the following schedule:

Bet Increments: 2,3,4,5

........Risk......Profit
2)$1000...$500   
3)$1500...$750 
4)$2000...$1000
5)$2500...$1250

9) From your current balance, first establish a new profit target of 500 units and a new stop loss of 1000 units (line #2)
10) Now bet the bet increment amount, raising and lowering (bet increment *10) that amount (instead of 1 unit)
11) If you win return to 1 unit and a new session
12) If you lose move downward one line and increase the bet increment by 1
13) If you win move upward one line and decrease the bet increment by 1

To keep the previously stated statistics in place, it is important to follow these instructions precisely as they have been tested over 16M won sessions.
I can understand that you choose your favourite street but I am not clear about the FIRST bet. You say 1 unit then you say stage 2 is 1000 units. Do you mean 1,then 2 then 4 until you reach 1000 ?
Also , I agree with dobbelsteen here .You need to be more realistic in your bankroll. Betting with virtual money is quite different from betting real money.Newcomers ( newbies ) want something that they can actually bet
with some chance of profit.
 

YoLo

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Re: Simple Street
« Reply #4 on: December 13, 2015, 05:55:02 PM »
Hi reyth. I am a new member and I am from Indonesia, I've been following this forum quite some time.. I also find out that this strategy from YouTube , I wonder if we combine it with others strategy like 8 or 5 numbers bet but with each progression, I think it is a very good strategy. Isn't it independent if we use the progression base on each strategy. Sorry if I mispell or grammatically incorrect.
 

Reyth

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Re: Simple Street
« Reply #5 on: December 14, 2015, 07:33:30 AM »

Ok the stages are ONLY for when you have lost your first 500 units (or would go over 500 if you bet).  So you just bet 1 unit, raising 1 unit when you lose and lowering 10 units when you win until you either win 250 units or lose 500 units.

Once you hit the debt management system and begin level 2 stay THERE betting and raising by 2 units on a loss and lowering 20 on a win until you either win 500 units or lose 1000 units.
« Last Edit: March 18, 2017, 12:12:42 AM by kav »
 

Reyth

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Re: Simple Street
« Reply #6 on: December 14, 2015, 07:37:15 AM »
Hi reyth. I am a new member and I am from Indonesia, I've been following this forum quite some time.. I also find out that this strategy from YouTube , I wonder if we combine it with others strategy like 8 or 5 numbers bet but with each progression, I think it is a very good strategy. Isn't it independent if we use the progression base on each strategy. Sorry if I mispell or grammatically incorrect.

Thanks for posting!  Yes you found the guy.  Let's try and work together to salvage this system because as of right now we are successful only because of luck and a crushing defeat looms about waiting to devour us.

COMBINING.  Yes I have thought of this, having multiple stations to increase the odds of winning by covering more numbers.  My favorite strategy is the 5 bet system but the best one statistically is the 3 bet (Simple Streeet). 

However, are you sure that the key is making them INDEPENDENT?  I think that will only double our woes.  I think the key is making them JOINED like with his other systems so we actually get the benefit of the extra numbers?  What do you think?

Also, if we add a 3rd chip it has a negative impact upon the statistics BUT I can see your point about making them INDEPENDENT because they would take care of themselves...  I guess we just need to try different things.

Ok, you have given me heart.  I will try running two streets at once.  Let's not give up! : D



terima kasih!
« Last Edit: December 14, 2015, 08:45:17 AM by Reyth »
 

Reyth

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Re: Simple Street
« Reply #7 on: December 14, 2015, 08:03:12 AM »


I am trying this.  Just had an easy win.

Time to put it in the comp.

Ok, no substantial change in win rate but more severe loss streaks possible.

Lets try this:



This has a lower win rate and higher loss streak possible.

Give more ideas and I will put them in this post and test them.
« Last Edit: December 14, 2015, 10:52:34 AM by Reyth »
 

Reyth

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Re: Simple Street
« Reply #8 on: December 14, 2015, 10:53:04 AM »

The chances of this happening are slim and its a rough battle when it does.  For this system to win safely, something must be done to modify behavior in this event to significantly lessen the odds of this occurring.  We should identify key points; certain areas of weakness that can be corrected/improved upon.

Anatomy of a Bust Out

loss 0  1  499
loss 26  2  497
loss 25  3  494
loss 2  4  490
loss 22  5  485
loss 0  6  479
loss 34  7  472
loss 4  8  464
loss 13  9  455
loss 6  10  445
loss 11  11  434
loss 27  12  422
win 17  13  565  750
loss 4  3  562
loss 0  4  558
loss 7  5  553
loss 29  6  547
loss 15  7  540
win 17  8  628  750
loss 33  1  627
loss 20  2  625
loss 30  3  622
loss 19  4  618
loss 12  5  613
loss 32  6  607
loss 7  7  600
loss 20  8  592
loss 36  9  583
loss 31  10  573
loss 25  11  562
loss 9  12  550
loss 25  13  537
loss 22  14  523
loss 1  15  508
loss 13  16  492
loss 0  17  475
loss 34  18  457
loss 13  19  438
loss 27  20  418
loss 5  21  397
loss 32  22  375
loss 31  23  352
loss 28  24  328
loss 32  25  303
loss 23  26  277
loss 2  27  250
loss 30  28  222
loss 29  29  193
loss 33  30  163
loss 11  31  132
loss 5  32  100
loss 34  33  67
loss 10  34  33

*** LEVEL *** 2

loss 5  2  998
loss 0  4  994
loss 15  6  988
loss 32  8  980

win 16  10  1090  1500
loss 33  2  1088
win 18  4  1132  1500
win 16  2  1154  1500
win 16  2  1176  1500
loss 7  2  1174
loss 35  4  1170
loss 13  6  1164
loss 5  8  1156
loss 35  10  1146
loss 14  12  1134
loss 10  14  1120
loss 36  16  1104
loss 36  18  1086
loss 5  20  1066
loss 27  22  1044
loss 22  24  1020
loss 7  26  994
loss 10  28  966
loss 5  30  936
loss 8  32  904
loss 7  34  870
loss 31  36  834
loss 32  38  796
loss 31  40  756
loss 3  42  714
loss 14  44  670
loss 35  46  624
loss 32  48  576
loss 19  50  526
loss 25  52  474
win 18  54  1068  1500
loss 6  34  1034
loss 3  36  998
loss 31  38  960
loss 30  40  920
loss 3  42  878
loss 31  44  834
win 16  46  1340  1500
loss 24  26  1314
loss 30  28  1286
loss 5  30  1256
loss 7  32  1224
loss 19  34  1190
loss 5  36  1154
loss 30  38  1116
loss 23  40  1076
loss 15  42  1034
loss 9  44  990
loss 10  46  944
loss 1  48  896
loss 33  50  846
loss 33  52  794
loss 13  54  740
loss 34  56  684
loss 5  58  626
loss 30  60  566
loss 36  62  504
loss 12  64  440
win 17  66  1166  1500
loss 11  46  1120
loss 7  48  1072
loss 27  50  1022
loss 3  52  970
loss 6  54  916
loss 27  56  860
loss 0  58  802
loss 34  60  742
loss 31  62  680
loss 11  64  616
loss 26  66  550
loss 35  68  482
loss 30  70  412
loss 22  72  340
loss 19  74  266
loss 20  76  190
loss 5  78  112
loss 14  80  32

*** LEVEL *** 3

loss 4  3  1497
loss 11  6  1491
loss 20  9  1482
loss 24  12  1470
loss 6  15  1455
loss 30  18  1437
loss 13  21  1416
win 16  24  1680  2250

win 18  3  1713  2250
loss 2  3  1710
loss 0  6  1704
win 16  9  1803  2250
loss 28  3  1800
loss 28  6  1794
loss 26  9  1785
loss 8  12  1773
loss 2  15  1758
loss 3  18  1740
loss 7  21  1719
win 18  24  1983  2250
loss 3  3  1980
loss 23  6  1974
loss 2  9  1965
loss 28  12  1953
loss 9  15  1938
loss 23  18  1920
loss 34  21  1899
loss 36  24  1875
loss 12  27  1848
loss 11  30  1818
loss 10  33  1785
loss 31  36  1749
loss 6  39  1710
loss 28  42  1668
loss 10  45  1623
loss 36  48  1575
loss 24  51  1524
loss 29  54  1470
loss 32  57  1413
loss 20  60  1353
loss 5  63  1290
loss 2  66  1224
loss 8  69  1155
loss 4  72  1083
loss 26  75  1008
loss 26  78  930
loss 13  81  849
loss 25  84  765
loss 8  87  678
loss 33  90  588
loss 2  93  495
loss 2  96  399
loss 2  99  300
loss 32  102  198
loss 35  105  93

*** LEVEL *** 4

loss 13  4  1996
loss 22  8  1988
loss 2  12  1976
loss 34  16  1960
loss 34  20  1940
loss 25  24  1916
loss 25  28  1888
loss 29  32  1856
loss 14  36  1820
loss 10  40  1780
loss 10  44  1736
loss 7  48  1688
loss 34  52  1636
loss 22  56  1580
loss 27  60  1520
loss 26  64  1456
loss 33  68  1388
loss 13  72  1316
loss 20  76  1240
loss 8  80  1160
loss 26  84  1076
loss 9  88  988
loss 8  92  896
loss 21  96  800
loss 30  100  700
loss 26  104  596
loss 34  108  488
loss 19  112  376
loss 1  116  260
loss 36  120  140
loss 19  124  16

*** LEVEL *** 5

loss 30  5  2495
loss 9  10  2485
loss 12  15  2470
loss 26  20  2450
loss 21  25  2425
loss 3  30  2395
loss 23  35  2360
loss 21  40  2320
loss 0  45  2275
loss 4  50  2225
loss 0  55  2170
loss 6  60  2110
loss 5  65  2045
loss 4  70  1975
loss 0  75  1900
loss 20  80  1820
loss 7  85  1735
loss 23  90  1645
loss 26  95  1550
loss 35  100  1450
loss 28  105  1345
loss 32  110  1235
loss 13  115  1120
loss 8  120  1000
loss 22  125  875
loss 26  130  745
loss 2  135  610
loss 21  140  470
loss 14  145  325
loss 4  150  175
loss 31  155  20

BUST OUT


This is the problem.  We are facing a maximum consecutive loss of 159 but the recovery system only provides 31 bets for each stage for a total of 155 bets.  This is why it is able to blast through the recovery steps.

Doubling the recovery steps is not enough to solve the problem (attached).

We could have avoided this bust out by sitting out all bets in red.  I will run the stats on this approach to see if it affects the win rate.
« Last Edit: December 14, 2015, 06:48:04 PM by Reyth »
 

Reyth

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Re: Simple Street
« Reply #9 on: December 14, 2015, 01:26:38 PM »
I wonder if we combine it with others strategy like 8 or 5 numbers bet but with each progression, I think it is a very good strategy. Isn't it independent if we use the progression base on each strategy?

Ok, I will try 2 streets each independent and see what happens. ; )

Interesting.  I just got two wins a row with it and went to the 3rd level of debt recovery with the 3rd game.  I notice it allows us to "stay in" longer when a row goes missing while the other row supports this with its wins.  The row that hasn't been hitting almost won the game with the single win that came in (it hit for over 1000 units).

I will program this and let you know what I get. ; )
« Last Edit: December 14, 2015, 05:19:34 PM by Reyth »
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Simple Street
« Reply #10 on: December 14, 2015, 01:57:02 PM »
I do not understand anything of this thread. Why no describtion or explanation of the system or method?
I have the impression that you use software programs, we do not have. Reyth sorry for you but the anatomy of the bust is useless for outsiders like me.
 
 

Reyth

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Re: Simple Street
« Reply #11 on: December 14, 2015, 02:13:11 PM »
I do not understand anything of this thread. Why no describtion or explanation of the system or method?
I have the impression that you use software programs, we do not have. Reyth sorry for you but the anatomy of the bust is useless for outsiders like me.

Quote
1) Choose your favorite street and stick to it for all bets
2) Set a session target for 250 units of profit
3) Set a stop loss of 500 units of loss
4) Start betting with one unit
5) When you lose raise the bet 1 unit
6) When you win lower the bet by 10 units (or return to 1 unit)
7) Continue until you either win 250 units (start again with #2) or must make a bet that will bring you below 500 units of loss
8] After your first 500 units of loss, continue betting using the following schedule:

Bet Increments: 2,3,4,5

........Risk......Profit
2)$1000...$500   
3)$1500...$750 
4)$2000...$1000
5)$2500...$1250

9) From your current balance, first establish a new profit target of 500 units and a new stop loss of 1000 units (line #2)
10) Now bet the bet increment amount, raising and lowering (bet increment *10) that amount (instead of 1 unit)
11) If you win return to 1 unit and a new session
12) If you lose move downward one line and increase the bet increment by 1
13) If you win move upward one line and decrease the bet increment by 1

The reason I started the thread with analysis instead of the method is because this is a DANGEROUS system and I don't want people getting the wrong idea.

The anatomy of a bust is the output from a losing session (one I chose to look at out of 10,000 winning sessions that I generated).  The format is:

RESULT/SPIN/BET/SESSION.BALANCE
loss............0........1...............499
loss...........26......2...............497

etc.
« Last Edit: December 14, 2015, 02:37:39 PM by Reyth »
 

rovait

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Re: Simple Street
« Reply #12 on: December 14, 2015, 03:35:43 PM »
Hi!
I think it's better to start the progression from the very beginning after each win. (while remaining on the same level)
And not reducing the bet amount by 10 or 20 units

Stas
« Last Edit: December 14, 2015, 04:15:56 PM by rovait »
 

scepticus

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Re: Simple Street
« Reply #13 on: December 14, 2015, 03:50:16 PM »
Hi reyth
You say raise one unit on a loss and reduce ten units on a win. If you win the first bet you win 11 units and then bet 1 unit on the second spin ?
I think most progression bettors  are trying to avoid a loss while hoping for a  profit. The problem with this is that you are dependent on WHEN the winning bet occurs unless, like dobbelsteen  you bet a straightforward Marty which we all agree can show a profit .The difference of opinion  occurs because of our different levels of acceptable risk. Dobbel is braver than I  am in accepting a higher level of risk than me but, nevertheless, he is laughing all the way to his bank with his profits despite all the criticism he receives.That said, I am satisfied with my profits using a lower risk strategy . I think we must accept that a " bust" of our bank  is always a possibility and should make that " bust " as little as possible and make it more  easy to  recover it.
With your current idea I agree with dobbelsteen - you should consider two streets or two double streets.
 I remain unconvinced that betting any progression is advisable UNLESS you already have a method which survives level stakes even if it does not show an actual profit.
As for merging TWO  different ideas - I have been regularly advising that is the best approach.  It works for me.
 

Reyth

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Re: Simple Street
« Reply #14 on: December 14, 2015, 04:12:34 PM »
Hi!
I think it's better to start the progression from the very begging after each win. (while remaining on the same level)
And not reducing the bet amount by 10 or 20 units

Stas

Thanks for the input.  I think that is good advice actually.  Not across the board BUT I think a weakness that can be shown in the system is that the chip levels can get very high and with a single hit the demands can be too expensive for the relative odds of a second hit.  So in situations like that, your suggestion makes sense to maybe double the amount that we lower.

The reason I say "not across the board" is because one of the strengths of the D'Alembert system is to reap the the benefits of equal distribution after a period when our numbers do not hit.  So in general, its a good thing to leave the chips at a higher level but at certain times, you are very right, it would make sense to lower them more than the suggested amount because of the expense involved; i.e. high chance of bust out vs. lower chance of scoring the saving hit.

I will be sure to work on implementing your suggestion as part of the solution package that we work up.  Thanks for your excellent suggestion!