Author Topic: The Magical Ether  (Read 26259 times)

Real

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The Magical Ether
« on: October 12, 2015, 10:07:43 PM »

The magical  ether, does it exist?


 
Many of you believe that past spins somehow reach forward and effect the chances of winning on the next spin and the next series of spins.
 
If you believe that past spins influence future spins, then what is it that's reducing the number of pockets on the wheel during the next spin?  (After all if the number of pockets on the wheel remain the same from one spin to the next, why should the odds change?)
 
Is it a magic invisible ether that is preventing and blocking the ball from landing in the numbers that have already hit too frequently?
 
How does the spooky stuff work?
Are the casinos aware it?


-Real

 
« Last Edit: October 12, 2015, 10:59:21 PM by Real »


 

Trilobite

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Re: The Magical Ether
« Reply #1 on: October 13, 2015, 02:39:36 AM »
Nothing magic or mysterious about it.
Take the dozens for example. On a single zero wheel you can expect to win 12 times and lose 25 times every 37 spins. After enough trials, you can take those figures to the bank.
So we collect 24 units and spend 25 units every 37 spins. A loss of 1 unit.
A 1 unit loss is not much to turn around in your favour.
It is very difficult for the wheel to avoid your selected dozen much more than the mathematical expectation and this is where some ingenuity and clever MM can really impact on the end results.
 
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: The Magical Ether
« Reply #2 on: October 13, 2015, 08:19:11 AM »
If you believe in horoscoops then you believe the planets influence your roulette decisions.Some peaple uses a amulet. I believe in my knowledge of the features of random rows.
 

Mike

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Re: The Magical Ether
« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2015, 04:27:12 PM »
and this is where some ingenuity and clever MM can really impact on the end results.

Trilobite,

What kind of ingenuity can outsmart randomness?

@ dobblesteen,

So it's just a matter of believing, then? Poor old reality doesn't seem to get a look in. :-(
 

Real

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Re: The Magical Ether
« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2015, 08:52:07 PM »

Quote
Nothing magic or mysterious about it.Take the dozens for example. On a single zero wheel you can expect to win 12 times and lose 25 times every 37 spins. After enough trials, you can take those figures to the bank. -Trilobite

 
Oh really?  How's that?  If the same number of pockets remain on the wheel at each spin, then why are you more likely to win because of what has hit on the past spins?  Again, is it the "magic ether"?  What mystical force is preventing the ball from landing in just any old pocket?

Quote
So we collect 24 units and spend 25 units every 37 spins. A loss of 1 unit.A 1 unit loss is not much to turn around in your favour.
It is very difficult for the wheel to avoid your selected dozen much more than the mathematical expectation and this is where some ingenuity and clever MM can really impact on the end results.-Trilobite

 
No the progression has no effect on the house edge.  (House edge) x (Amount bet) = Negative expectation over time.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2015, 09:01:42 PM by Real »
 

Trilobite

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Re: The Magical Ether
« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2015, 09:01:36 PM »
You don’t have to outsmart it all the time, just enough to stabilize the outcomes to 12/25.

The pathway to overcome randomness should be mapped out like an obstacle course, with clearly marked signposts at every turn. Any directional changes come and go regardless of what random is going to do. This way you stay much closer to mathematical expectation of the game.

Basically, compile the game to a stable break even situation then introduce MM to glean some profit.
 

Real

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Re: The Magical Ether
« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2015, 09:03:12 PM »
Trilobite,

If there's 37 pockets on the wheel during the last series of spins, then why aren't there 37 pockets on the next series of spins?

If the number of pockets remain the same, then why should the odds change based on what's hit in the past?
« Last Edit: October 13, 2015, 09:07:54 PM by Real »
 

Trilobite

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Re: The Magical Ether
« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2015, 09:12:54 PM »
My example was with the dozens so let’s stick with them.

It has nothing to do with past spins; it has everything to do with future spins. You must remember that one third of those any old pockets have my chips on them, and there is no “magic ether” that randomness can use to avoid those pockets beyond expectation. What mystical force is enabling the ball to avoid landing in my chipped up pockets?
 

Real

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Re: The Magical Ether
« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2015, 09:22:19 PM »
 Over time you will inevitably encounter a losing stretch that will completely wipe out your bankroll.   Try as you might, you can't build a progression to overcome the variance and house edge in a negative expectation game.  Just when you feel that you're really close to it, you will find that you're infinitely far away from your goal.
 
 

Trilobite

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Re: The Magical Ether
« Reply #9 on: October 13, 2015, 09:36:46 PM »
Admittedly, long losing stretches are the Achilles Heel of all players, but these can be curtailed somewhat with ingenuity. Variance is a double edged sword with easy profit along one edge and long losing streaks along the other. Once that sword has been blunted along both edges the game becomes more manageable.  Sensible progressions can then assist the player in overcoming the stabilised outcomes. 
 

Real

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Re: The Magical Ether
« Reply #10 on: October 13, 2015, 09:56:01 PM »
A progression has no effect on the house edge. 
 

kav

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Re: The Magical Ether
« Reply #11 on: October 14, 2015, 12:13:44 AM »
The house edge has minimal effect.
If the house edge was in the players favor, still one could not guarantee 100% that the player will be a winner.
By the same logic, none can guarantee that the player will be a loser now that the house edge is in casinos favor.
 

Reyth

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Re: The Magical Ether
« Reply #12 on: October 14, 2015, 01:59:12 AM »
I believe in the features of random rows.

The house edge has minimal effect. If the house edge was in the players favor, still one could not guarantee 100% that the player will be a winner.By the same logic, none can guarantee that the player will be a loser now that the house edge is in casinos favor.


« Last Edit: October 14, 2015, 02:00:50 AM by Reyth »
 

Trilobite

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Re: The Magical Ether
« Reply #13 on: October 14, 2015, 02:24:47 AM »
Progressions should not be used to overcome unfavourable variance. They should be used to take advantage of favourable variance.
Sometimes an unfavourable variance will create a drawdown and sometimes a favourable variance will evade capture. These things are to be accepted as part of randomness.
The important thing is to limit the drawdown with strategy & MM, and to allow/accept any missed opportunities that result from the strategy & MM.
In combination these two conditions will consume the house edge leaving the remainder of the outcomes in a position of profit.

Anyway, it works for me so...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASw32qKppMw
« Last Edit: October 14, 2015, 02:54:25 AM by Trilobite »
 

Real

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Re: The Magical Ether
« Reply #14 on: October 14, 2015, 04:52:22 AM »
Wow, you know I've explained why and have demonstrated (by showing the math) how the house edge is the largest problem that all of you system players will ever face in the game.  However, you're still living in denial.