### Author Topic: Progression Fact  (Read 7753 times)

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#### Trilobite

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##### Progression Fact
« on: September 07, 2015, 11:53:22 AM »

A mechanical progression that has a cycle peak and a stop loss is equivalent to flat betting.

#### scepticus

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##### Re: Progression Fact
« Reply #1 on: September 07, 2015, 01:49:26 PM »

A mechanical progression that has a cycle peak and a stop loss is equivalent to flat betting.

#### rotaman

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##### Re: Progression Fact
« Reply #2 on: September 07, 2015, 06:46:22 PM »
I would also like an explanation.

#### kav

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##### Re: Progression Fact
« Reply #3 on: September 07, 2015, 08:36:48 PM »
My wisdom is:

"Flat betting offers no benefit, unless you can predict the numbers (decrease randomness of outcomes)"
« Last Edit: September 07, 2015, 08:38:46 PM by kav »

#### scepticus

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##### Re: Progression Fact
« Reply #4 on: September 11, 2015, 01:26:51 AM »
My wisdom is:

"Flat betting offers no benefit, unless you can predict the numbers (decrease randomness of outcomes)"

I think it depends on how you define "Flat Betting " kav.
I consider doubling / parlaying a flat bet because it is a " one unit bet " and therefore " flat" - others wouldn't .
For example , " doubling -up " on a winning dozen by putting all the returns on it repeating is an 8/1 shot and can make a significant difference compared to betting them as two "singles ".

#### Trilobite

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##### Re: Progression Fact
« Reply #5 on: September 11, 2015, 02:31:08 AM »
Flat bet  21.21.21.21.21.21
Progressive bet  2.4.6.8.16.32.64.

One is considered flat betting the other is considered progressive betting but they are both the same.

They are both a flat bet of 126 units spread over 7 attempts.

We don’t even need a comparison because in the long run any progression is just a flat bet of a certain amount that has been broken up over a number of attempts.

1.1.1.2.2.2.3.3.4.4.5.8.15 this is a flat bet of 49 units broken up over 13 attempts.

…and so on.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2015, 02:49:00 AM by Trilobite »

#### rotaman

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##### Re: Progression Fact
« Reply #6 on: September 11, 2015, 10:42:35 AM »
Quote
in the long run any progression is just a flat bet of a certain amount that has been broken up over a number of attempts.

Maybe so, but that doesn't mean that the two are equivalent. With a progression, I can lose more bets than I win and still be in profit, but not when flat betting. If you combine a progression with good bet selection it takes the pressure off having to achieve a win rate above what expectation predicts. Flat betting isn't a viable option in the long term (unless you're using some form of AP).

Judicious use of progressions can make the difference between profit and loss 'in the long run'.

My two cents.

#### scepticus

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##### Re: Progression Fact
« Reply #7 on: September 11, 2015, 12:52:07 PM »
Flat bet  21.21.21.21.21.21
Progressive bet  2.4.6.8.16.32.64.

One is considered flat betting the other is considered progressive betting but they are both the same.

They are both a flat bet of 126 units spread over 7 attempts.

We don’t even need a comparison because in the long run any progression is just a flat bet of a certain amount that has been broken up over a number of attempts.

1.1.1.2.2.2.3.3.4.4.5.8.15 this is a flat bet of 49 units broken up over 13 attempts.

…and so on.

I think your idea of flat betting is not shared by most bettors.
Perhaps kav or reyth could provide a dictionary of  the meaning of terms used in this forum. I think there is often a misunderstanding of expressions used by others .

#### scepticus

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##### Re: Progression Fact
« Reply #8 on: September 11, 2015, 01:13:42 PM »
Quote
in the long run any progression is just a flat bet of a certain amount that has been broken up over a number of attempts.

Maybe so, but that doesn't mean that the two are equivalent. With a progression, I can lose more bets than I win and still be in profit, but not when flat betting. If you combine a progression with good bet selection it takes the pressure off having to achieve a win rate above what expectation predicts. Flat betting isn't a viable option in the long term (unless you're using some form of AP).

Judicious use of progressions can make the difference between profit and loss 'in the long run'.

My two cents.
If I bet an 8/1 shot I can lose more bets than I win and still be in profit  . Isn't this a matter of opinion ? And a question of risk / reward  ?
We all have different risk profiles so prefer different ways of betting. Flat betting allows  betting higher stakes than progressions so MAY be just as profitable. The downside of progressions is that we don't know when the winning bet will occur and so are inclined to "waste" some bets. If you look at the approaches of Palestis and Harry in this forum you will find that they minimise any losses by a form of bet selection by NOT betting some opportunities.
I think  selectivity , of whatever sort , is the key to winning - even for AP .
The important thing to understand is that - however you choose to bet -we are just guessing . That applies to AP too though it's adherents proclaim it as " The Holy Grail ".
Gambling is gambling is gambling !

#### rotaman

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##### Re: Progression Fact
« Reply #9 on: September 11, 2015, 02:54:18 PM »
Perhaps I should have said that we can lose more bets than we're expected to and yet still make a profit. The point is that a progression can help smooth over the 'bumps' incurred from not having a positive expectation. I don't mean any martingale or other suicide staking either; a mild progression is all that's needed.

Quote
The important thing to understand is that - however you choose to bet -we are just guessing . That applies to AP too though it's adherents proclaim it as " The Holy Grail ".
Gambling is gambling is gambling !

Well some guesses are better than others. A guess could be completely random, or informed. If we are all 'just guessing', meaning you might as well put a blindfold on and scatter chips over the table, I for one wouldn't be interested. And neither do I particularly enjoy gambling. There is a big difference between calculated guessing and 'just guessing'.

#### scepticus

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##### Re: Progression Fact
« Reply #10 on: September 11, 2015, 04:10:46 PM »
yes. There is a big difference between a calculated guess and " just a guess ". But they are both just guesses aren't they ? No one should pretend otherwise.
What I warning against is the " certainty" of all too many. There are far too many variables in roulette for anyone to claim certainty of outcome.

#### rotaman

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##### Re: Progression Fact
« Reply #11 on: September 11, 2015, 06:04:03 PM »
What I warning against is the " certainty" of all too many.

I must be reading the wrong forums because I haven't seen anyone claiming certainty, unless they're selling systems. ;-)

#### scepticus

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##### Re: Progression Fact
« Reply #12 on: September 11, 2015, 10:17:19 PM »
What I warning against is the " certainty" of all too many.

I must be reading the wrong forums because I haven't seen anyone claiming certainty, unless they're selling systems. ;-)
When someone tells us that we cannot beat roulette " in the long run " isn't that claiming certainty ?
When someone tells us  " The Only Way " to beat roulette is by AP isn't that claiming certainty ?
Get my drift ?

#### Real

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##### Re: Progression Fact
« Reply #13 on: September 12, 2015, 12:31:09 AM »
The logic.

You can't beat roulette in the long run for the same reason that you can not multiply a negative number times a positive number and produce a positive number.  You must find a way to get the edge over the wheel.
« Last Edit: September 12, 2015, 12:33:12 AM by Real »

#### scepticus

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##### Re: Progression Fact
« Reply #14 on: September 12, 2015, 01:40:47 AM »
The logic.

You can't beat roulette in the long run for the same reason that you can not multiply a negative number times a positive number and produce a positive number.  You must find a way to get the edge over the wheel.

Real.
Gambling is about beating the odds !
We are all dead  IN THE LONG RUN ! So until you, or anyone else, can tell me how long your long run is WHY should I be concerned ? If I win I win. If I lose I lose ! I don't know if I will win or lose - and neither do you or anyone else.Understand  once and for all - an EXPECTATION is an EXPECTATION and nothing more .
You keep  repeating the mantra " You cannot beat the wheel in the long run" without understanding what it means.
You keep telling us that we don't understand Probability Theory and demonstrate that it is you who doesn't understand it ! 20 STd for example . ! Utter nonsense !
I have asked you before- tell me one professor of physics or maths who verifies that your idea  is viable. And I am still waiting !