Author Topic: Entry level use of probability theory at the tables  (Read 1746 times)

Gerrard

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Entry level use of probability theory at the tables
« on: September 06, 2015, 10:46:24 AM »
Hi.
Simple question.
How do I know or calculate which is the first spin of a series in order to Calculate the probability of an event?



 

Harryj

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Re: Entry level use of probability theory at the tables
« Reply #1 on: September 06, 2015, 02:57:25 PM »
    Hi Gerard,
                  Welcome to the forum.

      Your question may seem simple but in fact is highly complex. The short answer is that there is no way to tell until it is too late. If this were not so we would all be millionaires and the casinos would be broke.

     Remember each spin of the wheel is completely independent. It owes nothing to the past and pays nothing to the future. Serious players tend to wait until they spot what seems to be a series unfolding. This is called a "TRIGGER" or 'TRIGGER POINT" They then calculate the probable continuation and bet accordingly. THERE IS NO CERTAINTY ! It is little more than a guess based on experience.

    This may sound a little daunting to the beginner. However there is plenty of help if you trouble to look. There are sites where you can download previous results. Most internet casinos will allow you to play with "fun money" to gain experience. Forums like this have members who are prepared to help.

      What you must not do is buy a system that guarantees you will become a millionaire overnight. Even free systems should be taken with a pinch of salt. Use a little common sense !  IF THEY WORKED THEY WOULDN'T BE OUT THERE.  Gaining experience takes time and effort.

     You could also try our AP (advantage player) freinds. They can teach you how to exploit the PHYSICS of the game, but that also takes time and effort.

        THERE ARE NO FREE RIDES.

    Lots of luck,
                      Harry
 

Gerrard

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Re: Entry level use of probability theory at the tables
« Reply #2 on: September 07, 2015, 05:02:23 AM »
Thanks Harryj,

I guess I'll get at it then.

Regards
Gerhard
 

weird

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Re: Entry level use of probability theory at the tables
« Reply #3 on: September 07, 2015, 06:43:07 AM »
Hi Gerrard,
welcome.

I did not actually understand what your question.
But I guess, since u say probability, of a event...

Let me say..

Since we cant predict,

but we can see a "MOST. or LEAST" of an event based on past real record.

eg.
We can always see say 10spins of BLACK, but never see 100spins of BLACK! never!...

We can see 1black and 20red, but never 10black and 200Black permutation! never!

and we never yet to see less than 69win, in 200spins!
or less than 30win/100spins...[in B&M casino., but RnG had 25/100spins!!!]

That u can bet on..
so now u can search for a way to bet, confident that there will no less than [69win in next 200spins].

Hope that help.
 thanks.

 

Harryj

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Re: Entry level use of probability theory at the tables
« Reply #4 on: September 07, 2015, 11:13:32 AM »
   Hi Gerard,
                Don't let my rather negative post put you off. I have been playing more or less seriously for over 40years and my first casino experience was  ta the age of 16 way back in the '50's. It was an illegal casino so the fact that I was underage was the least of their worries !

                 Harry
 

rotaman

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Re: Entry level use of probability theory at the tables
« Reply #5 on: September 07, 2015, 06:44:29 PM »
Hi Gerrard,

To answer your question, it doesn't matter which spin you choose to be your first. For the purposes of calculating the probability of an event, one spin in a sequence is as good as any other.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Entry level use of probability theory at the tables
« Reply #6 on: September 08, 2015, 07:48:12 AM »
 Weird why do you make a difference between a B&M and RNG roulette. My SSB program gives nearly always a profit of about 70 units for a 140 spins sample. The trigger is an 2^20 event. In spite of this particular event it is not a HG