Author Topic: "Beat the wheel, not the game"  (Read 24645 times)

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kav

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"Beat the wheel, not the game"
« on: August 29, 2015, 09:32:14 PM »
I hear advantage players saying: "Beat the wheel, not the game"

To make an analogy, this approach to roulette is like saying that the only way to make money in the financial system is by robbing a bank. Studying stocks is useless, "beat the bank, not the stock market". This is basically what they are implying with the "beat the wheel, not the game".

This is also what the Efficient-market hypothesis is roughly saying about the stock market. That it is so well balanced and efficient that the only sure way to make money in finance is by robbing a bank. And since Eugene Fama, Robert Shiller and Lars Peter Hansen won a Nobel in economics for stating it, I can't blame the advantage players for believing something similar for roulette. But believe me, there are very valid counterarguments to this theory and there are people getting rich every day in the stock market.
And yes the stock market has its own house edge called transaction fees.

See also:
Roulette vs Stock Market and Gambling vs Trading (a comparison)
« Last Edit: August 30, 2015, 12:15:21 AM by kav »


 

Reyth

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Re: "Beat the wheel, not the game"
« Reply #1 on: August 30, 2015, 12:10:05 AM »
I often think of roulette in terms of stock/commodity trading.  Watching the previous spins is like watching a stock ticker. : D
 

Harryj

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Re: "Beat the wheel, not the game"
« Reply #2 on: August 30, 2015, 12:14:18 PM »
    I agree Kav, it is a pity that they are fixated on this point. They come across as highly intelligent people and it is unlikely that they could do what they claim if it were not so. They could so easily be a great asset to the forum rather thana continual scouce off strife.

         Harry
 

Mike

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Re: "Beat the wheel, not the game"
« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2015, 04:43:48 PM »
The "efficient market hypothesis" is just that: a hypothesis. A significant number of traders (around 10%) do make a consistent profit, and that couldn't be done if the markets were totally random. They might appear to be random over short time intervals, but the price movements are driven by psychology and events in the world.

On the other hand, the GAME of roulette IS totally random. The trend is NOT your friend, and neither is anything else.

So you have to play the WHEEL in order to make a profit.

 

scepticus

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Re: "Beat the wheel, not the game"
« Reply #4 on: October 05, 2015, 05:03:10 PM »
The "efficient market hypothesis" is just that: a hypothesis. A significant number of traders (around 10%) do make a consistent profit, and that couldn't be done if the markets were totally random. They might appear to be random over short time intervals, but the price movements are driven by psychology and events in the world.

On the other hand, the GAME of roulette IS totally random. The trend is NOT your friend, and neither is anything else.

So you have to play the WHEEL in order to make a profit.

Isn't your view, Mike ,  just a " hypothesis " ?
Do YOU make a profit from your hypothesis ? Do you - personally -  know anyone who does ?
You are entitled to your opinion but you are not entitled to claim that we " have to play the wheel " to make a profit.
 

Harryj

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Re: "Beat the wheel, not the game"
« Reply #5 on: October 05, 2015, 08:27:36 PM »
The "efficient market hypothesis" is just that: a hypothesis. A significant number of traders (around 10%) do make a consistent profit, and that couldn't be done if the markets were totally random. They might appear to be random over short time intervals, but the price movements are driven by psychology and events in the world.

On the other hand, the GAME of roulette IS totally random. The trend is NOT your friend, and neither is anything else.

So you have to play the WHEEL in order to make a profit.

  Hi Mike,
         Are you sure that the way you play the wheel is the only way ? I have made no secret of the fact that I bet groups of numbers that are scattered around the wheel, to take advantage of the randomness of the game. In fact I only lose to results that definately look biased.

        Harry
 

sqzbox

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Re: "Beat the wheel, not the game"
« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2015, 03:18:29 AM »
Hey Mike - I tried to PM you but I can't - says "message box is full". Is this a bug that we should raise with Kav? or have you not cleared it recently?

 

kav

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Re: "Beat the wheel, not the game"
« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2015, 05:57:40 AM »
Hi,
I tried to increase the limits for all members. You may be able to send him a message now.
 

sqzbox

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Re: "Beat the wheel, not the game"
« Reply #8 on: October 06, 2015, 06:37:32 AM »
Thanks Kav - that did the trick.
 

Mike

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Re: "Beat the wheel, not the game"
« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2015, 09:28:55 AM »

Isn't your view, Mike ,  just a " hypothesis " ?
Do YOU make a profit from your hypothesis ? Do you - personally -  know anyone who does ?
You are entitled to your opinion but you are not entitled to claim that we " have to play the wheel " to make a profit.

scepticus,

Yes I do make a profit and so do others, but I can't prove it to your satisfaction - too bad. This thread is about the GAME as opposed to the WHEEL. It's not my opinion that the GAME can't be beaten, it's a fact, and a very obvious one at that.

Roulette as a GAME is simply an RNG where all numbers are equally likely to come up. All "events", therefore, are also equally likely. Throw in the unfair payout and the GAME is unbeatable, period. No if's, buts, "virtual losses", probabilities, statistics, patterns, progressions, astrology, numerology or any other nonsense changes that FACT.

On the other hand, the WHEEL is a physical device. Roulette as a "system" consists of the main physical factors ball, wheel, and dealer. The outcome is partially determined by the laws of physics, and so not TOTALLY random.

This really should be blindingly obvious. Roulette AS A GAME is unbeatable, because it's been designed that way. You cannot beat the GAME by manipulating stakes or using statistics because the GAME is totally random, meaning unpredictable.

Harry,

Quote
I have made no secret of the fact that I bet groups of numbers that are scattered around the wheel, to take advantage of the randomness of the game

Sorry, but that's absurd. It's like choosing lotto numbers 7,23,19,34 ... instead of 1,2,3,4... because the former are more "random". Randomness means that ALL patterns are equally likely, so the patterns which you think look more "random" are no more likely than those which have some kind of "regularity" to them.
« Last Edit: October 06, 2015, 03:45:53 PM by Mike »
 

Reyth

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Re: "Beat the wheel, not the game"
« Reply #10 on: October 06, 2015, 01:28:01 PM »
I can see spreading one's bets around the wheel to take advantage of/avoid the potential effects of various forms of bias/imperfections. : )
 

Mike

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Re: "Beat the wheel, not the game"
« Reply #11 on: October 06, 2015, 03:45:22 PM »
Reyth,

It's those bias/imperfections which give you the edge!

Use them, don't try to neutralize them. ;-)

Casinos try to make roulette more like the GAME (that is, random), and you guys are trying to "beat" the GAME. That should tell you something. Think "out of the box", that is, out of the GAME.
« Last Edit: October 06, 2015, 03:47:52 PM by Mike »
 

scepticus

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Re: "Beat the wheel, not the game"
« Reply #12 on: October 06, 2015, 03:46:50 PM »
mike .
Are you stating as a fact that you make money at roulette by your method of playing the wheel ?
If the GAME cannot be beaten because of unfair odds then why do some sites offer roulette with NO zero ? Does that not suggest that it is not the unfair odds but the randomness of the wheel  that is the main problem ?
As I demonstrated in  my  Dozen coupled with Column allied to Red/ Black all things are NOT  equally likely =
unless you can disprove that 20/ 37 x 18/37 is NOT   360/ 1369 . This proves that Red / Black   are not equally likely.  Red / Black are equally likely in one spin but not in a series of spins .
Your view that roulette cannot be beaten by a maths approach is a " hypothesis " and nothing more and you yourself have already disproved that hypothesis when you " proved " that 3% of bettors would win over 10,000 spins.
I think the outcome of each spin is totally determined by the Laws of Physics and not partially as you claim. Not only that but the results are totally random using your own definition  of random as unpredictable.
Your logic is flawed Mike . You are much too concerned with  your own bias .
 So please stop your parroting  about " The ONLY  WAY ".  You do sound like  a religious fundamentalist.
 

Harryj

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Re: "Beat the wheel, not the game"
« Reply #13 on: October 06, 2015, 04:17:13 PM »

Isn't your view, Mike ,  just a " hypothesis " ?
Do YOU make a profit from your hypothesis ? Do you - personally -  know anyone who does ?
You are entitled to your opinion but you are not entitled to claim that we " have to play the wheel " to make a profit.

scepticus,

Yes I do make a profit and so do others, but I can't prove it to your satisfaction - too bad. This thread is about the GAME as opposed to the WHEEL. It's not my opinion that the GAME can't be beaten, it's a fact, and a very obvious one at that.

Roulette as a GAME is simply an RNG where all numbers are equally likely to come up. All "events", therefore, are also equally likely. Throw in the unfair payout and the GAME is unbeatable, period. No if's, buts, "virtual losses", probabilities, statistics, patterns, progressions, astrology, numerology or any other nonsense changes that FACT.

On the other hand, the WHEEL is a physical device. Roulette as a "system" consists of the main physical factors ball, wheel, and dealer. The outcome is partially determined by the laws of physics, and so not TOTALLY random.

This really should be blindingly obvious. Roulette AS A GAME is unbeatable, because it's been designed that way. You cannot beat the GAME by manipulating stakes or using statistics because the GAME is totally random, meaning unpredictable.

Harry,

Quote
I have made no secret of the fact that I bet groups of numbers that are scattered around the wheel, to take advantage of the randomness of the game

Sorry, but that's absurd. It's like choosing lotto numbers 7,23,19,34 ... instead of 1,2,3,4... because the former are more "random". Randomness means that ALL patterns are equally likely, so the patterns which you think look more "random" are no more likely than those which have some kind of "regularity" to them.

     Hi Mike,
          I see no reason to climb back on the roundaboutwe so recently climbed off. I don't dispute that AP can use the physic of the  wheel to arrive at a fairly accurate prediction. What I dispute is that it is the only way to play this game.  None of the AP's have ever offered proof of their statements. other than long term predictions which have little basis in the reality of the game. in so doing you overlook the most important factor of the game. It is played in a closed circuit of 37 numbers. It is within that circuit you must prove your point.

     You ridiculed my statement that spreading the bet evenly around the wheel gives a better chance of a "hit" than cocentrating it in one area. This is a relatively easy statement to prove. In any 37 spin cycle around 23 unique numbers can be seen. The remaining 13 or 14 are repeats. I have probably analysed more 37 spin cycles than you have million spin cycles. I can say with some authority that those uniqe numbers rarely form a solid block in one sector of the wheel. They are fairly evenly spread. It is unusual to see gaps of more 2 or 3 pockets. thus my hypothesis seems reasonably based. Even if you can find a mathematical reason for all the results to cluster in one area, i still have a good chance of scoring a hit.

         Harry
 

Reyth

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Re: "Beat the wheel, not the game"
« Reply #14 on: October 06, 2015, 05:03:46 PM »
This is an interesting concept, a certain "soft AP" method that analyzes "sector cluster/scatter".  Sounds quite intriguing!