Author Topic: Statistical facts that could ignite your thinking  (Read 13769 times)

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kav

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Statistical facts that could ignite your thinking
« on: August 29, 2015, 03:14:32 PM »
I always like very much statistical facts about roulette. These "facts" show the limits of a theoretically unlimited game where "anything is possible", but practically it is not, as we will never see for example a number repeating 37 times although theoretically possible.
So here is an interesting "fact".

Quote
After millions of spin tests it has been shown that there will always be a minimum of 5 repeaters in a 37 spin cycle.
This then implies that 1 dozen, which one we don't know, will always have 2 or more repeaters in it during a 37 spin cycle.
Infact, 1 dozen and 1 column, will always have 2 or more repeaters in it during the same 37 spin cycle.
I wanted to present this observation to see if any good methods can be developed around it?
Any ideas out there : )
[amk]

And some further stats from Teorulte
Quote
I ran about 500 000 cycles of 37 spins and came up with the following:

(Number on left is number of unique numbers and next number is how many times a spin cycle had exactly that many unique numbers in the test)

37 spin cycle:

15   1
16   12
17   202
18   1417
19   6020
20   18309
21   41304
22   73951
23   98780
24   102814
25   80164
26   47276
27   20934
28   6706
29   1685
30   349
31   35
32   5
« Last Edit: August 29, 2015, 04:25:50 PM by kav »

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dobbelsteen

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Re: Statistical facts that could ignite your thinking
« Reply #1 on: August 30, 2015, 10:00:43 AM »
Unique has more meanings. What is meant with "the number of the unique numbers"and what is a spin cycle?

kav

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Re: Statistical facts that could ignite your thinking
« Reply #2 on: August 30, 2015, 12:34:40 PM »
We divide an extremely long roulette spin sequence into 500.000 sets of 37 spins.
37 spins is equal to the number of roulette numbers we call it a cycle.

Then we check how many different numbers have hit in each cycle.  The word "unique" may be misleading since some of the hit numbers hit more than once in a cycle.

The point is to see how many numbers will get hit in 37 spins and consecutively how many numbers will stay unhit.
« Last Edit: August 30, 2015, 10:15:33 PM by kav »

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nickmsi

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Re: Statistical facts that could ignite your thinking
« Reply #3 on: August 30, 2015, 09:42:13 PM »
Hi Kav . . .
Here's one idea for this statistic of having a minimum of 5 repeaters in a 37 spin cycle. . . . .which means one dozen must have 2 or more repeaters.   Track the repeaters until you have 1 repeater in 2 different dozens and 0 repeaters in the 3rd dozen, such as:

DZ 1     DZ2     DZ3
# Repeaters:      1             1         0

Then bet both dozens with the 1 repeater.  We are gambling that one of the 2 dozens with 1 repeaters will get a 2nd repeater before the dozen with 0 repeaters gets 2.

If you start betting as soon as you get 2 Dozens with 1 repeater each, then you will get a lot of bets but a greater chance of getting the RFH (Run From Hell) which will kill your bankroll.  You can generally get 2 Dozens with 1 repeater each in the first 12 spins or so.

If you wait and start betting after spin 24 or 27 you will get far less bets but also less opportunities to get the RFH.

With all the waiting and tracking, systems like this are best handled by a bot, however, Casino's frown upon people who just take Free Spins and don't bet much.

I have attached the tracker that I used in my bot's simulator to test this method.  I found that waiting until spin 21 gives the best early results.  I did 750,000 spins which generated about 1,000 units profit (1,000 placed bets).   Largest drawdown was 796 units.

I could tweak the sheet and cut the spins down to about 400,000 and still generate the 1,000 unit profit but still by itself it has a very low profit per spin ratio.

Any other ideas?

Cheers
NIck

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nickmsi

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Re: Statistical facts that could ignite your thinking
« Reply #4 on: August 31, 2015, 03:10:31 PM »
Hi Kav . . .

Here's another idea, rather it's an extension of my previous one.

Track the repeaters until you have 1 repeater in 2 different dozens and 0 repeaters in the 3rd dozen.
DZ 1     DZ2     DZ3
# Repeaters:      1             1         0

Then bet ALL the STRAIGHT numbers in both dozens with the 1 repeater.  We are gambling that one of the numbers in the 2 dozens with 1 repeaters will  repeat again  before any one number the dozen with 0 hits twice.

Using the same selection of waiting for 21 spins to bet, I did a quick 100,000 spin test and showed a profit of 1,933 units with largest drawdown of 3,745 units.  This is a much better return.

Therefore, with this higher profit, I then dropped the spin count from 21 to 3 to get more bets and got the following results:  Tested for 250,000 spins with a profit of    125,433 units.  This was done with a 20,000 stop loss as we had a maximum drawdown of 140,530 which would not occur with the stop loss.

I have again attached the Excel Sheet Tracker that generated these results.

Enjoy

Nick

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kav

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Re: Statistical facts that could ignite your thinking
« Reply #5 on: August 31, 2015, 04:49:05 PM »
Nice idea.
The problem is:
1. Not all sequences will produce 1 -1 -0 repeaters in dozens. Sometimes the first 2 repeaters are on the same dozen
2. Too many numbers to bet. Needs an expensive progression

nickmsi

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Re: Statistical facts that could ignite your thinking
« Reply #6 on: August 31, 2015, 05:27:55 PM »
Hi Kav . . .

Yes, you will have to wait for a trigger of 1-1-0, however, if you Select Start at Spin #3, which means you start with the first 1-1-0 you encounter, then you will get a bet about 70% of the time.  I can live with that.  It looks like it averages only 12 numbers per bet.

Yes, you will get high progressions level, if you play to win every bet.  My bot does not play that way.

It finds the sweet spot between when to start betting and how many spins to bet for.  The progression or max bet is controlled by the number of spins we bet.

We are continuing to test.

Cheers

Nick

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dobbelsteen

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Re: Statistical facts that could ignite your thinking
« Reply #7 on: September 01, 2015, 07:51:36 AM »
The 1/3 rule is very popular by system players.An analysis of this rule learn that the variance is rather big.
The variance depends on the possibilities of the chance. Take a chance of 90 possibilities. The 1/3 rule says that on average 30 possibilities has not occured. The variance is much smaller than the variance of a 36 sample. This is also a feature of the long run theory.
This is the reason the 1/3 rule has no meaning for the dozens
An analysis of a 200 sample learns us much more about the features of a dozen sequence

Paul

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Re: Statistical facts that could ignite your thinking
« Reply #8 on: November 15, 2015, 08:54:45 PM »
Hi Kav,
I have looked at your information and have come up with an interesting observation.

Total number of sequences of 37 spins 499964
Total number of spins   18498668
Total repeat numbers   6708337

Observation
On average one of the last 37 numbers repeated every 2,757564 spins or 13,417640 per 37 spins so there were on average 23.58235993 unique numbers per 37 spins

Harryj

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Re: Statistical facts that could ignite your thinking
« Reply #9 on: November 18, 2015, 10:11:41 AM »
Hi Paul,
Those figures  confirm the "Rule of Thirds" which gives an average of between 23 and 24 unique numbers and between  13 and 14 unhit per 37 spin cycle.

Unlike Dobbelsteen, I believe that these figures remain fairly accurate for shorter cycles such as for Dozens, DS, streets etc.

That means that the " RoT" becomes extremely important in assessing the averages of EMPIRICAL RESULTS.

Harry

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Janusz

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Re: Statistical facts that could ignite your thinking
« Reply #10 on: November 18, 2015, 10:30:18 AM »

Here is a table of possible Outcomes after 37 spins:

1,040,424 trots with 37 spins means 38,495,688 single spins

F0 no hit
F1 hit once
F2 hit twice and so on

dobbelsteen

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Re: Statistical facts that could ignite your thinking
« Reply #11 on: November 18, 2015, 08:55:27 PM »
A dozen cycle consist of 3 spins.
A double street cycle consist of 6 spins.
A street cycle consist of 12 spins.
The anomalies with the rule of the third are to large

Janusz

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Re: Statistical facts that could ignite your thinking
« Reply #12 on: November 18, 2015, 09:03:26 PM »
A dozen cycle consist of 3 spins.
A double street cycle consist of 6 spins.
A street cycle consist of 12 spins.
The anomalies with the rule of the third are to large

No! its always 37 spins. Otherwise you ignore the Zero and that kills you

Real

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Re: Statistical facts that could ignite your thinking
« Reply #13 on: November 19, 2015, 08:36:05 AM »
It's the house edge that destroys your bankroll.

dobbelsteen

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Re: Statistical facts that could ignite your thinking
« Reply #14 on: November 19, 2015, 09:03:15 AM »
The enlargement of a cycle is the number of possibilities. The roulette has 37 possibilities.
The influence of the zero is negligible for small cycles and small samples. Perhaps you use another definition.

The House Edge is also valid for AP players!!! PLayers have no edge. The mind is the advantage of every player