Author Topic: How to break a loss sequence?  (Read 2989 times)

Constantinvs

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How to break a loss sequence?
« on: August 02, 2015, 11:50:19 PM »
Hey Guys,

I want to discuss with you any strategy to break a loss sequence. How to do this? What do you do when you feel a chill in the spine after lose your 5-6th round in a row?

Thank You,

Daniel Constantino



 

weird

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Re: How to break a loss sequence?
« Reply #1 on: August 03, 2015, 03:12:07 AM »
Hi ,
Simple, just wait for the losing sequence to HAPPENED, then BREAK, then u bet,
U see, horribble sequence seldom back to back.

SAY, YOUR STRATEGY CANT STAND STAND 10LOSSES.
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L LOSE 10Time, will cause huge losses.
HIT=BREAK, prepare to bet.
L
L
L
L
 

kav

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Re: How to break a loss sequence?
« Reply #2 on: August 03, 2015, 09:09:32 AM »
Hey Guys,

I want to discuss with you any strategy to break a loss sequence. How to do this? What do you do when you feel a chill in the spine after lose your 5-6th round in a row?

Thank You,
Daniel Constantino
Hi,
If you feel uncomfortable losing repeatedly, you are probably using an up as you lose progression, like Martingale.
If this is not for you you may have to change your strategy. Maybe try to use an up as you win progression like Paroli.
Just an idea.
Probably 
 

albalaha

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Re: How to break a loss sequence?
« Reply #3 on: August 03, 2015, 02:31:37 PM »
It is the main strength of a random session that it can produce a bad losing sequence any moment and it can keep doing so long enough to lose whatever you have/table limits. You can't protect yourself very efficiently against this. Therefore, have a strategy that can keep you alive even if you get to face the worst. Do not drag a loss too much otherwise eventually, you will a time where you can no longer get your losses back ever.
 

Sputnik

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Re: How to break a loss sequence?
« Reply #4 on: August 03, 2015, 03:27:10 PM »
Here is a march that have won 50.000 placed bets flat betting - even money.
Even such march will face fluctation and variance.
I got the code for this march as excel cheet.

Here you can see 15 contra 2 that is above 3.0 SD.
One loss has the value of 1 and one win has the value of 1.

If you don't know how to measuring fluctation and variance with SD - then i can teach you.
With this picture i test the worst with Holloways Progression.
The worst would be around 5 SD after several million simulations by Bayes.
30 loses and 2 wins.

« Last Edit: August 03, 2015, 03:30:26 PM by Sputnik »
 

weird

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Re: How to break a loss sequence?
« Reply #5 on: August 03, 2015, 03:55:43 PM »
Sputnik,
I cant understand what that image, and the progression.
Please tell more .
Thanks.
 

Sputnik

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Re: How to break a loss sequence?
« Reply #6 on: August 03, 2015, 04:09:39 PM »

 The first line is Red & Black results
 The secound line is the betting with W/L
 The third line is the Holloway Progression

 - - -

Quote from Bayes:

The progression is based on starting from a base of 1 unit and multiplying by around 10% - 12% to get the value of the next stake. Here is a version I just coded which is very similar to the Holloway progression using a percentage of 11.5% which gives approximately the same values and the same number of steps.

The error in the Holloway progression comes from rounding. You can see the same thing here: The middle column is the calculation unrounded and in the right column the numbers have been round DOWN to the nearest whole number. Notice that from step 27 (18u) to step 28 (21u) there is an increase of 3 units, but from step 28 to step 29 (23u) there is an increase of only 2 units!

Depending on how the rounding is done there will usually be some error like this, but it won't make a lot of difference. You could always change the values in the Holloway progression slightly to make the steps between values consistent.

1   1.115       1
2   1.243       1
3   1.386       1
4   1.546       1
5   1.723       1
6   1.922       1
7   2.143       2
8   2.389       2
9   2.664       2
10   2.970       2
11   3.311       3
12   3.692       3
13   4.117       4
14   4.590       4
15   5.118       5
16   5.707       5
17   6.363       6
18   7.095       7
19   7.911       7
20   8.821       8
21   9.835       9
22   10.966      10
23   12.227      12
24   13.633      13
25   15.201      15
26   16.949      16
27   18.898      18
28   21.072      21 << 3 from 18 to 21
29   23.495      23 << 2 from 21 to 23
30   26.197      26
31   29.209      29
32   32.568      32
33   36.314      36
34   40.490      40
35   45.146      45
36   50.338      50
37   56.127      56
38   62.581      62
39   69.778      69
40   77.803      77
41   86.750      86
42   96.726      96
43   107.850     107
44   120.253     120
45   134.082     134
46   149.501     149

The original Holloway Progression:
You have to have a strike ratio above 50%

1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
14
16
18
20
22 Here the last ones have a raise of 2 and now come 25 with a raise of 3 units.
25 <<<
28 But here it continues with a raise of 2 units and should be 3 units.
30
32
35
40
45
50
55
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
135
150
 

 

albalaha

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Re: How to break a loss sequence?
« Reply #7 on: August 03, 2015, 04:22:29 PM »
@Sputnik,
    Can you simulate this set of L/W and let us know the output:
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
W
L
L
L
L
W
L
L
W
L
L
L
L
W
L
W
L
L
W
L
L
W
L
W
L
L
W
W
W
 

december

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Re: How to break a loss sequence?
« Reply #8 on: August 03, 2015, 04:27:22 PM »
Please teach us if you have time and goodwill.

Thank you
 

Harryj

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Re: How to break a loss sequence?
« Reply #9 on: August 03, 2015, 05:34:32 PM »
  Weird,
            See my answer in your dozens thread. In my whole career I never used EC progressions of more than 7 steps. Even then they were heavily "insured". I then realised that I was better off making only two or three bets, then letting the losing streak go on without me. If I wasn't betting I wasn't losing ! most of my wins came in the first few bets.

             Harry
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: How to break a loss sequence?
« Reply #10 on: August 03, 2015, 08:50:41 PM »
The answer on this question is not so easy.A losing streak belongs to a system. Before answering you must know the describing of the system. A losing streak for an EC is not the same as the losing streak of a dozen system. The Kav bet has a mixed bet  and to define a losing streak is very diffficult.

In general you break a losing streak by a stop loss decision in the system.

The table limit is also a  break in a lose streak.
 

Constantinvs

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Re: How to break a loss sequence?
« Reply #11 on: August 04, 2015, 01:27:45 PM »
@albalaha I did the simulation with your sequence and @sputnikĀ“s progression. Here are the results:

#Bet    Progression   L/W   Balance
1   1,115   1   L   -1
2   1,243   1   L   -2
3   1,386   1   L   -3
4   1,546   1   L   -4
5   1,723   1   L   -5
6   1,922   1   L   -6
7   2,143   2   L   -8
8   2,389   2   L   -10
9   2,664   2   L   -12
10   2,970   2   L   -14
11   3,311   3   W   -11
12   3,692   3   L   -14
13   4,117   4   L   -18
14   4,590   4   L   -22
15   5,118   5   L   -27
16   5,707   5   W   -22
17   6,363   6   L   -28
18   7,095   7   L   -35
19   7,911   7   W   -28
20   8,821   8   L   -36
21   9,835   9   L   -45
22   10,966   10   L   -55
23   12,227   12   L   -67
24   13,633   13   W   -54
25   15,201   15   L   -69
26   16,949   16   W   -53
27   18,898   18   L   -71
28   21,072   21   L   -92
29   23,495   23   W   -69
30   26,197   26   L   -95
31   29,209   29   L   -124
32   32,568   32   W   -92
33   36,314   36   L   -128
34   40,490   40   W   -88
35   45,146   45   L   -133
36   50,338   50   L   -183
37   56,127   56   W   -127
38   62,581   62   W   -65
39   69,778   69   W   4

« Last Edit: August 04, 2015, 01:29:32 PM by Constantinvs »
 

Sputnik

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Re: How to break a loss sequence?
« Reply #12 on: August 04, 2015, 02:28:24 PM »

 You made the staking wrong - the highest peak was 10 units bet.

Code: [Select]
L 1
L 1
L 1
L 1
L 1
L 2
L 2
L 2
L 2
L 3
W 3
L 3
L 3
L 3
L 4
W 4
L 4
L 4
W 5
L 4
L 5
L 5
L 6
W 7
L 6
W 7
L 6
L 7
W 8
L 7
L 8
W 9
L 8
W 9
L 8
L 9
W 10 PEAK
W 9
W 8

 

Mike

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Re: How to break a loss sequence?
« Reply #13 on: August 04, 2015, 02:30:45 PM »
Sputnik, I tried sending a reply to your pm but your inbox is full, apparently.
« Last Edit: August 04, 2015, 02:33:02 PM by Mike »