Author Topic: Flaw in all money management regarding handling the randomness and house edge  (Read 16314 times)

albalaha

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                      Whenever I talk of such subjects my only motive is to let people know the realities and forget the fallacies and misconceptions that have been spread since gambling itself was created, willingly or unwillingly.

House Edge: A casino establishment requires millions of money to just start with licence, land, construction, decoration, equipment, machines and manual devices and later for employees, refreshments and entertainment of clients, maintenance and taxes. If casino operates without any house edge, it will be like a servant for free flipping a coin for his two masters and giving winnings of one from the loser one. Further, no house edge will make the gambling as harsh for casino as for gamblers. Hence, every casino game has house edge or house fee, from poker to slots, from roulette to bingo. Period.
   
                 If we talk of roulette in particular, the house edge gradually sucks all the bets, bit by bit and after thousands of trials all bets go beyond break even and give up themselves to the house edge. If you can simulate all 37 numbers in a span of 370K spins, all 37 numbers will be at loss, being played flat or in any manner. You may not find an exception of this ever. This is the magic of house edge.


 

albalaha

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Randomness:
                              Being "random" means being unpredictable and being beyond any order. There are still many genius who preach "trend playing" or playing upon "patterns" in a random game. Trends or patterns only hold good to look at the marquee and have wild ideas and not in real life. Anyways, it is the randomness that can bring weird results in a session and as per the theory of "law of small numbers" some strange outcomes can be seen like a win of Red after 23 successive blacks and a single number being sleeper for over 500 spins. From the best to the worst, from the above average to below average, any bet can behave at any point of time, without giving any hint of that.
                  In a nutshell, randomness makes winning even 1 unit very tough and none can boast to come out winning every session from a casino, howsoever smart he may be.

            Variance: It means scatter of the actual outcome from the expected one. Say, every number should hit once in 37 spins but it doesn't happen and a few numbers hit twice, thrice and even more before all 37 numbers hit atleast once. Variance can be measured by Standard Deviation and Z-score. Variance can be positive for some bets and negative for others. It is the most beloved child of randomness that keeps casinos alive and pampered. Just imagine if there is no variance and all 37 numbers use to appear in 37 spins, what will happen to the casinos even with a house edge.
 

weird

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Hi Albalaha.

After the understanding of random, edge, and variance.

How are we going to win long term?
That the trillion dollars question.
 

kav

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Hi Albalaha.

After the understanding of random, edge, and variance.

How are we going to win long term?
That the trillion dollars question.
Well, this is the question for sure.
However, please stop having unrealistic expectations.
Do you really expect a "free meal"? Someone giving you (us) the solution to roulette in the next post?
People who expect too much are the most vulnerable to the system seller's exorbitant claims.
 

albalaha

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First of all, let's know the flaw in logic while different money managements were created.

1. Martingale:

                      The classic and the oldest of all. It was observed that getting 10 Losses of an EC is almost 1/1024 thing. Someone may think, if I play only 100-200 spins per session, It can be the safest and easiest to play the classical double up progression and win 100-200 chips and run out of the casino.
           Now, most of us know that this could be the worst way to play this way and casino would love to have Marty players. Martingale ensures that you risk upto the limit of table/your bankroll at some point or other just to win 1 unit and 1 loss could take someone forever to recover. This progression ensures win least and lose most.
I would recommend this thought of Edward Thorp on martingale to all: albalaha.no spam.com/topic/19400615/Edward-Thorps-opinion-upon-Martingale#.VbjaqbOqqko

For baccarat players, I would like to recommend reading this topic as to how martingale will kill you even in wins in "Banker" bets: albalaha.no spam.com/topic/19400640/Why-Banker-is-the-wrong-choice-for-progression-play#.VbjbUrOqqko

To be continued later...............
« Last Edit: August 05, 2015, 07:59:20 PM by kav »
 

scepticus

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I have long argued  that variance / randomness is the roulette players' real enemy - NOT the  House Edge ( HE ) .
I don't understand why GAMBLERS should worry about either randomness or the HE or the Long Term .That there are " odds to be beat " is a given but it is the essence of gambling to " beat the odds " so why this breast beating that we cannot win. When someone is stupid enough to put a definite figure on his or her's " Long Run " - and justify it to his peers  - I might then pay attention to it. Until then the Long Run is only hypothetical - it can be proven in theory but NOT in practice .
 

albalaha

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Being random means it can not be won by a conservative approach like martingale. In no manner, being random means unbeatable.

« Last Edit: July 29, 2015, 03:00:32 PM by kav »
 

scepticus

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Being random means it can not be won by a conservative approach like martingale. In no manner, being random means unbeatable.
I certainly do  not think that we can't win in either short run- or the long run whatever the  Long Run means in actual practice.
So you are coining in the money with your " money minting machine " ?
« Last Edit: July 29, 2015, 03:01:06 PM by kav »
 

kav

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I just want to point out that hinting and making unsupported claims is against forum rules.

 

scepticus

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Being random means it can not be won by a conservative approach like martingale. In no manner, being random means unbeatable.
"Random means unbeatable  " ? If that is true then gamblers shouldn't gamble - but we do  believe that Random CAN be beaten ! Why else should we gamble ?
 

albalaha

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Guys,
        Do not distract from the main debate and keep chit chats to minimum. If anybody has questions worth asking go ahead or I stop writing and do as many chit chats here as all of you like.
              I have deleted some posts that are no way related to the topic.
« Last Edit: July 30, 2015, 03:23:00 AM by albalaha »
 

weird

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Gentlemen,
Let say Martingale,
which 1/1024probability.
\
The worst losses streaks of EC, say, 25.losses in row,

Then in one million spins test,
there will be only ONCE happening of 25losses.

Thus if someone want to bet marthy,
then wait for 18losses, and bet the rest with marthy.

If 18 too long, then wait for 15losses, and prepared to faced 10 losses.
but then again, someone will say, it take a lifetime to wait for 15losses-in-row...
 

albalaha

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Weird,
            Your thinking of playing after so many losses is a flaw too. I have answered this thinking and logic behind wrong use of martingale after the happening of certain consecutive losses in this topic: betselection-cc/gambling-philosophy/if-roulette-has-no-memory-why-there-hasn't-been-succesive-36-hits-of-an-ec/
 Playing martingale in any form is bad and failure. Avoid it as much as possible. Virtual limit for consecutive losses of an EC could be 30 spins and it needs a billion chips to use martingale till 30 trials. Further, there is no guarantee of any kind that this limit can not be crossed. If you want to bet after say 20 spins no win and then bet, you will need to wait 1 million spins for one such opportunity.
I do not like to copy-paste a long discussion ever from one board to other and put links for the sake of brevity only. Nothing is promotional so I request the admin to not to delete links unnecessarily. If I ever need to refer the exclusive topic written here, I would put a link of this place to all others.
« Last Edit: December 28, 2016, 09:22:47 PM by kav »
 

weird

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Since waiting for 15losses is to hard,
then why not use this strategy.

Wait for a long losses streaks to BREAK, then bet, hoping that the long streak wont hit twice.
Say,
U see 10losses in row, which happen frequently.
then the 10losses BREAK, bet that 10 losses streaks wont happen again.

eg.
bet black , EC.
R,R,R,R,R,R,R,R,R,R,BLACK, bet here...

or,
U see 15losses in row, which may happen .
then the 15losses BREAK, bet that 15 losses streaks wont happen again.

R,R,R,R,R,R,R,R,R,R,R,R,R,R,R,BLACK, bet here...

OR,
wait for double whammy.
wait for 10losses, then break, then the losses continue to 5more losses, then u bet.

eg.
R,R,R,R,R,R,R,R,R,R,BLACK,R,R,R,R,R, BET HERE MARTHY.
if red hit for 5 more time , that only 1black in 21 spins, which I think a 1/million  spins probability.
 
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weird

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Hi Albalaha,

since 30 losses in row, was the record,
then we have 2 choices,
1]wait for NEAR 30losses, which a lifetime wait.
wait till it BREAK, then we bet hoping that streaks wont hit again.

2]wait for 2 streaks to happen,
say,
20losses,,break, 9losses, break, bet here.
but then again,

As I see it , long streaks of losses do happen,
but back to back, also happen,
then wait for back to back, streaks to happen, then bet,
say.

LLLLLLLLLL,BREAK,LLLLLLLLLLL,break, bet here.
what u think?

Or some gentlemen here could dona million simulation,
to see how many thrice , back to back long streaks happen?