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Author Topic: GUT simple, Winkel may disagree.  (Read 3059 times)

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weird

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GUT simple, Winkel may disagree.
« on: July 18, 2015, 05:53:44 AM »

Gentlemen,

After reading the Gut articles by the respected and learned members, in   forums, I admit I cant understand the techniques.

Nevertheless,
Let me have a few words, what I think, of some simple ideas to bet a different kind of GUT.

Say,
1]law of third, 24numbers hit in 37spins.
2]ONLY 17numbers to, ONLY 31,32,33,34,35,36 numbers hit in 37SPINS, possible, but highly unlikely.

The method:

in 37spin.
1st spin= hit=1 , unhit=0

Wait till=hit=20, unhit=17.

then bet the unhit 17numbers.
This simply mean we hope for 24hit, to materialized in the remaining spins, FLATBET.

17numbers bet=17chip,

 1st attempt,lose=17u,total=-17. win=+19
2nd attempt,lose=17u, total=-34u. Win=+19=+2nett.
3rd attempt,lose=17u,total=-51. win=+19=-15net.
so on.

Thus from the,
hit=20numbers to the 24 intended hit=
24-20=4more hit.

17numbers bet=win=+19.
16numbers bet=win=+20.
15numbers bet=win=+21.
14numbers bet=win=+22..total=+82

Debacle=
approximately...

first loss=-17units.=-17
2nd loss=-17units.=-34
3rd loss=-17units.=-51
4th loss=-17units.=-68
5th loss=-17units=-85

offset by,
aproximately winning=

17numbers bet=win=+19.
16numbers bet=win=+20.
15numbers bet=win=+21.
14numbers bet=win=+22..total=+82

Total spins=9spins.
thus 37spins-9spins=28th spin

This mean, in my shallow opinion.

BEST attempt to bet,
hoping for 24 HITs, in 37 spins=
17 unhit numbers, at the 28th spins.

In simple explaination,

U wait for 17unhit, that happen in the 28th spins,
[or more, say 29th, 30th, so on...]

Then u bet the remaining unhit, in the next 9spins.

The worst losses=
none hit in the next 9spins!
=-17x9=-153unit losses, in none hit, in remaining 9spins!
----------------
only ONE hit,hit in the next 9spins!
approximately..

win=+19,
losses=-16x8=-128u=-109.
--------------------
only 2hit  in the next 9spins!
1st win=+19,
2nd win=+20=+39
next straight losses=-15x7=105=-66
-----------------------------
only 3hit  in the next 9spins!
1st win=+19,
2nd win=+20=+39
3rd win=+21=+60
next straight losses,-14x6=-84=-24u
------------------
only 4hit  in the next 9spins!
1st win=+19,
2nd win=+20=+39
3rd win=+21=+60
4th win=+22=+82
next straight losses,-13x5=-65=+17

and so on.
above just an example of how the risk u face.
OF COURSE , u stop at first win!

Summmary.

Wait for 17unhit to happen at ,
 at least at the 28th spin.

ie.
eg.

at 28th spin,
 hit=20, unhit=-17.

so for law of third,
24number hit in 37 spins,
 there MAY be, 4 hit in next 9spins.

So u take the risk that the
remaining 4hit will happen,
 in the next 9spins...to 24numbers hit in 37spins.

1st spin=lose.=-17,total=-17
2nd=lose.=-17,total=-17
3rd=lose.=-17,total=-34
4th=lose.=-17,total=-51
5th=lose.=-17,total=-68

6th=hit=bet17u=+19,=-49
7th=hit=bet16u=+20,=-29
8th=hit=bet15u=+21,=-8
9th=hit=bet14u=+22,=+14
===============

So u take the risk that if 20numbers hit,
the remaining 4hit will happen,
 in the next 9spins...to 24numbers hit in 37spins

or in other way, if there is less than 20 hit in 28th spins, then the opportunity better.
---------------

IF,
at the 28th spin,
there 20hit, thus risk 4 in remaining 9spins.
there 19 hit, thus risk 5 in remaining 9spins.
there 18 hit, thus risk 6 in remaining 9spins.
there 17 hit, thus risk 7 in remaining 9spins.
there 16 hit, thus risk 8 in remaining 9spins.
there 15 hit, thus risk 9 in remaining 9spins.
===============================

or U may reduce the parameter...

===========================
say,
at the 20th spin.
there ....
.
there 7hit, thus risk=17in remaining 17spins.
there 8hit, thus risk=16in remaining 17spins.
there9 hit, thus risk=15in remaining 17spins.
there10 hit, thus risk=14in remaining 17spins.
there11 hit, thus risk=13in remaining 17spins.

there 12 hit, thus risk=12 in remaining 17spins.
there  13hit, thus risk=11 in remaining  17spins.
there 14 hit, thus risk=10 in remaining  17spins.
there  15hit, thus risk=9in remaining  17spins.
there 16 hit, thus risk=8in remaining  17spins.
there 17 hit, thus risk=7 in remaining  17spins.
there 18 hit, thus risk=6in remaining  17spins.
there 19 hit, thus risk=5in remaining  17spins.
there 20 hit, thus risk=4 in remaining  17spins.
there 21 hit, thus risk=3in remaining  17spins.
there 22 hit, thus risk=2in remaining  17spins.
there 23 hit, thus risk=1in remaining  17spins.
there 24 hit, thus risk=0in remaining  17spins.

What u think?
« Last Edit: July 18, 2015, 08:35:26 AM by weird »


 

kav

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Re: GUT simple, Winkel may disagree.
« Reply #1 on: July 18, 2015, 08:06:05 AM »
Hi,

I have not studied your post yet, but I want to say that it is very useful, someone to write a "simple version" of G.U.T. I never understood the original version described by winkel - it was too complicated.
Thanks!
 

weird

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Re: GUT simple, Winkel may disagree.
« Reply #2 on: July 18, 2015, 09:18:17 AM »
Thanks Kav, for yr reply.
---------------------------------

Gentlemen,

Sorry, if u cant understand my post , because  English, since not my first language.
-----------------------

In simple words.

Only 24numbers hits,
 in 37spins=law of third.

Thus we take the risk by betting that 24numbers will be hit in 37spins.

How?
As instructed by Mr. Winkel,
I assumed he said, "never bet more than 17units."

Thus we start to bet when there 17numbers left remaining , that yet to hit.

WE always risk the assumed,
 that 24 numbers WILL/MUST HIT, in 37spins.

and we MAY or WILL lose, if less than 24numbers hit, or ,if less than 24 numbers hit, the hit come very late.

------------------
We wait for 17numbers that not hit.
That 17 unhit may, happen at..
 at very early, 20th spins, meaning that NO number repeat in the first 20spins.

ie.
@20th spin= 20hit VS 17unhit.

Thus assumed that 24 numbers will hit in 37spins,
this simply mean that 24-20hit=4numbers will hit in next 17spins...
[first 20spins + 17=37spins]

Thus with only 4numbers, in next 17spins, FLATBET will be VERY RISKY! Thus we do not bet.
===============

I assumed that bet at ...
only 20numbers hit at 28th spins will be less risky.
because,
4hit in next 9spins will profit if the winning come early.
-----------------------------

20hit=only 20numbers hit, so far, at 28th spin.

4hit=24-20hit=4hit not yet happen, since we assumed that 24numbers will hit in 37spins.
thus we assumed 4 more hit in next 9spins.
-----------------------------------------

9spins= 37spins-28th spin=9 remaining spins.

IE.
at 28th spin= 20 numbers HIT vs 17unhit.
thus there we assumed 4 more hit , in next remaining 9spins.

so we bet the 17numbers=17unit flatbet, in next spin.

and below we assumed that the 4 remaining hit come late at the last 4spins.

29th=bet=-17u=lose=-17
30th=bet=-17u=lose =-34
31st=bet=-17u=lose =-51
32nd=bet=-17u=lose =-68
33rd=bet=-17u=lose =-85
34th=win=bet 17u, win=+19=-66.
35th=win=bet 16,win=+20=-46
36th=win=bet 15,win=+21=-25
37th=win=bet 14,win=+22=-3.
================================

we bet 17 at 29th to 33rd, because 17 numbers still remaining , not hit.

29th=bet=-17u=lose
30th=bet=-17u=lose
31st=bet=-17u=lose
32nd=bet=-17u=lose
33rd=bet=-17u=lose

the 20numbers keep repeating,
thus the 17 numbers still remaining , not hit.
================================

34th=win=bet 17u, win=+19.

one number hit, thus there still 16numbers not hit, thus we bet 16numbers for next bet.
====================================

35th=win=bet 16,win=+20

one number hit, thus there still 15numbers not hit, thus we bet 15numbers for next bet.
====================================

36th=win=bet 15,win=+21
one number hit, thus there still 14numbers not hit, thus we bet 14numbers for next bet.
====================================

34th=win=bet 17u, win=+19=-66.

win=+19, because 36-17=+19.
===================

35th=win=bet 16,win=+20=-46
win=+20, because 36-16=+20.
===================

this is for, assumed,
24numbers hit in 37spins.

THUS if there only 23numbers hit!!!
We lose huge!
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: GUT simple, Winkel may disagree.
« Reply #3 on: July 20, 2015, 03:48:26 PM »
I can not understand why system designers develop so complicated methods.The theory of the ECs , the dozens and columns and the double streets are  well-known and not difficult. The missing 12 numbers on 36 spins are together a dozen. This particular dozen has not fallen in 36 spins . A dozen has an expected occurence of one on 3 spins. The anomality of the expected valid is very large. With very low risk you can bet on this particular dozen. I predict a hit within 6 spins.
The zero can be part of this dozen.
 

Janusz

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Re: GUT simple, Winkel may disagree.
« Reply #4 on: July 20, 2015, 05:15:04 PM »
Hi,

I have not studied your post yet, but I want to say that it is very useful, someone to write a "simple version" of G.U.T. I never understood the original version described by winkel - it was too complicated.
Thanks!

Try to write a simple version of your own strategy!

This got nothing to do with G.U.T nor it´s near to the basic rules
 

kav

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Re: GUT simple, Winkel may disagree.
« Reply #5 on: July 20, 2015, 05:54:53 PM »
Hi,
I have not studied your post yet, but I want to say that it is very useful, someone to write a "simple version" of G.U.T. I never understood the original version described by winkel - it was too complicated.
Thanks!
Try to write a simple version of your own strategy!
This got nothing to do with G.U.T nor it´s near to the basic rules
I have. I call it "synopsis".
Winkel, I'm very happy that you visit our forum and I didn't want to offend you. I do think it is a valid question to ask:
"Could there be a simpler version of GUT, where the less important details can be omitted, so we can focus on the main points and it is easier to understand?"
I understand that probably by omitting some details the method could be less effective, but I think the first step is to understand the main concept.

PS: I admit that I'm not very familiar with GUT, so I don't know if weird got it all wrong.
« Last Edit: July 20, 2015, 05:57:18 PM by kav »
 

Janusz

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Re: GUT simple, Winkel may disagree.
« Reply #6 on: July 20, 2015, 06:15:51 PM »
Sorry kav,

I stopped explaining the basic rules in forums around the world.
There are so many threads that explain and show how to play. TCS made videos and explained how to use the tracker. There are at min 5 different trackers in the world.

br