### Author Topic: How many spins for something to fail?  (Read 8718 times)

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#### dalex1983

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##### How many spins for something to fail?
« on: July 17, 2015, 04:55:07 PM »
How many consecutive spins does it take to prove that a system works or fails?

I've made 1500 consecuiteve spins(from a list that is here on the site DortmundCasino-Live-1998-180days-Single0-T4.txt) with a profit of 312 units.

And 5 days in a row about 250 consecutive spins recorded around 8-11pm from an online live roulette(with dealers that change every 30min) with an average of 200units profit per day

The system pays 2:1 like the columns

#### kav

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##### Re: How many spins for something to fail?
« Reply #1 on: July 17, 2015, 07:48:49 PM »
Hi dalex,

There can be no proof. Only tests.

The amount of units has no meaning unless you state the amount of bankroll.
For example a system that produces 1 unit profit and needs bank roll of 100 units is better than a system that produces 500 units profit and needs 60000 units bankroll.

In short, instead of counting your profit, try to identify and understand what is the worst spin sequence that can ruin your system. This is much more useful information.

#### Reyth

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##### Re: How many spins for something to fail?
« Reply #2 on: July 17, 2015, 09:02:52 PM »
I have heard people say on this forum that 10,000-20,000 spins is a pretty significant benchmark when testing a system.  I think the reason is that the wheel will turn uncharacteristically bad for a prolonged period; it can be somewhat rare for this to happen but it should happen within 10,000-20,000 spins.  The bad time is so bad its like your system is the opposite of what it should be and this can go on for over 1000 spins.

It is my personal opinion that this bad streak of the wheel WILL occur regularly (even if relatively rarely) and unless your system can accomodate that, it WILL fail.  I also believe that the casinos know this as well.

Dobble has a "short run" theory where he runs 10 tests for 200 spins to get an idea of what a system is likely to do.  In fact, if your system is straight-forward enough and you post the details, I am pretty sure he might have the time to put it in his simulator for you because he enjoys studying roulette systems.

I have a method where I can determine practically expected max loss figures that will hold for quadrillions of spins & I can also output loss distributions that will show percentage chances of getting X# of consecutive losses in a row (from 1 to max).  Like for instance, I can run 2 dozens for 16M spins and it will show 16 max consecutive losses and this figure will hold into the quadrillions of spins; this is practically speaking, how many times we can expect a single dozen to repeat.

No method of testing can be 100% accurate even though it might be so for our entire lifespans.

« Last Edit: July 17, 2015, 09:37:13 PM by Reyth »

#### dalex1983

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##### Re: How many spins for something to fail?
« Reply #3 on: July 18, 2015, 01:39:20 AM »
Thank you for the link @kav......and it's true you don't play 2000 spins consecutive in real, you play every day maybe 250spins, i didn't take that in consideration

My bank roll its 600 units, and i'm playing 12 numbers...and here is one problem.......i play 2 unit on every number that ad's up to 24 or 48 or 72 units or a total loss of 144

It's very complicated to explain, and my english is not that good...but here it goes.

I saw that the "The Sequence Master" strategy is similar to mine but it does not work at all (you can lose about 141 times in a row with that strategy)

So i'm using 12 numbers

1. I wait and record 150 numbers and put them in a software that counts for how long a number never came up

2. I order by the latest and pick the top 12 numbers that never came up toghether, as below

 Number33 Latest122 36 108 5 81 20 67 21 64 12 53 4 52 35 51 14 50 13 48 7 37 28 34 23 33 3 31 16 28 9 27 31 26 15 24 10 23 24 22 30 21 1 20 27 19 26 16 0 15 18 13 2 12 29 10 32 9 11 8 17 7 19 6 25 5 6 4 22 3 34 2 8 1
Let's just say if 14 comes up after one spin you remove it and add the number bellow that's 23

3. The 12 numbers allways changes (lets say this time one of them came up after 1 draw.......you remove the number and add the one below)

4. You wait until those top 12 numbers dont come up for 7 or more spins(the max is 15 only once recorded)

5. After that you play..but you play only after the third( you have your 12 numbers...none come up 1 spin 2 spin 3 spin.....now you play 2x12 numbers 24units on the 4 spin 4x12 on the 5 spin and 6x12 on the 6 spin

6. You win and stop and wait for "4. You wait until those top 12 numbers dont come up for 7 or more spins(the max is 15 only once recorded)"

7. And so on

If you win at 4 spin you get 46units
If you win at 5 spin you get 68units
If you win at 6 spin you get 66units
If you lose -144units

@kav the worst scenario was my bankroll of 600 got to 260units, but only if i started in that exact moment and only on paper, otherwise for the second worse scenario the bank remains the same or lose about 60units at max again only on paper. Playing for 'real' at an online casino with real dealer  6 days and 250 spins form around 9-11pm.....i never lost once and thats why i'm here.....it's not normal to just win

I'll attach an excel file from 2 days ago

EXCEL explanation:
-if you see a 1 or 2 or 3 than one of those numbers came up, that means you change the number according so you have only the 12 numbers that never came up the most
-if you have a 7 or more spins that your numbers never came up than wait until 3 spins comes up.....and bet only on the 4 the 5 and the 6 spin
-start all over
« Last Edit: July 18, 2015, 01:41:12 AM by dalex1983 »

#### dalex1983

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##### Re: How many spins for something to fail?
« Reply #4 on: July 18, 2015, 01:49:23 AM »
And one more thing......you have to be very fast at clicking......betting units on 12 not so random numbers in just 16-17 seconds it's a bit hard, and you need a mouse with double and triple click

#### Reyth

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##### Re: How many spins for something to fail?
« Reply #5 on: July 18, 2015, 02:34:13 AM »
Very interesting.  I notice that 150 is just 2 over 4*37.  Did you choose 150 for some particular reason?

You mean the number below 14 is 13?

I can make a simulation for this.  I think the questions will be "How many times in a row will the wheel go without hitting the top 12 numbers 3 times in a row" & "How often does each successive triple miss occur"?

I think ultimately it will be a bankroll question, "How much of a bankroll do I need to survive the worst the wheel can be expected to bring?"

I think betting numbers 37 spins and older is a reliable way to win but there is a downside that occurs where it can take up to 27 spins to hit.

So maybe we are only looking at 9 sets of successive misses and so (9*144)=1296 bankroll balance required.  That would be just to survive but then there is the issue of profitability due to successive misses occurring close together and thats when my mind starts to fog over...

Hopefully there is a way that your odds can improve from 3-bet to 3-bet so that your winning range of 3 spins will produce better results than a straight progression.  If so, that is the genius of your system where you would successfully beat the casino table limits.
« Last Edit: July 18, 2015, 03:15:44 AM by Reyth »

#### dalex1983

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##### Re: How many spins for something to fail?
« Reply #6 on: July 18, 2015, 03:53:24 AM »
@Reyth

yes you can't get to the casino limits because you bet straight numbers.....even if you double it and triple it etc...... thats not a issue(it s an issue if you dont have a mouse that can make a double click and a triple click)

why i choose 150 spins for start......because in 150 spins you will get a picture of the numbers that came up and the software can make some sense of what happened, 2 times hapened that in those spins one number didn't came up..it was n/a

No "You mean the number below 14 is 13?"

I mean every spin you add the number that came up to calculate which 12 are the most asleep, if after 2 spins one came up.....you add the numbers of those spins to the software and it will tell you the first 12 numbers that are asleep

In anything the RNG system doesnt exist, just in theory

NOOOOOO BETTING ON the last 37 SPINS OR OLDER.....it fails every time i tried.....and online and just testing!

You need a minimum of 150 spins or more to record

ANYTHING I CHANGE TO THE THEORY IT GOSE VERRY WRONG!

#### dalex1983

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##### Re: How many spins for something to fail?
« Reply #7 on: July 18, 2015, 04:21:26 AM »
And may i add..... the RNG does the not apply to anything in this world.........if you flip a real coin for 2000years every day for 100 times a day.....the result will be allmost half/half.......if you flip a coin in a software......the results are unlimited

The software doesn t give a f about gravity or friction or the speed you throw the coin or what position is it on the finger when you through it or on what surface does it lands

Please dont use RNG systems for tryouts....they dont exist in real roulette

#### Reyth

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##### Re: How many spins for something to fail?
« Reply #8 on: July 18, 2015, 04:45:21 AM »
Ok my apologies.  Just trying to help.  I wish you the best with your system! : D

#### dalex1983

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##### Re: How many spins for something to fail?
« Reply #9 on: July 18, 2015, 04:57:27 AM »
@Reyth

Its one way or just go to any casino and record the spins from live dealears, not that air rulette(even if is it filmed from a real casino)

I know it takes time, and if you miss one spin you have to start from the begining

#### kav

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##### Re: How many spins for something to fail?
« Reply #10 on: July 18, 2015, 08:56:42 AM »
Quote

Reyth,
I have no specific testing criteria.
As I explained in Testing a Strategy my main criteria is deeply understanding the strategy and it's weak and strong points. This is the method I use to form an opinion about strategies. For further investigation I may use pen and paper (or excel) to better understand the mechanics of the progression etc.)

I divide the systems into two categiries.
Those that obviously do not offer any advantage and those that might offer an advantage. By "advantage" I don't mean a clearly defined, mathematical advantage, as it is very hard (impossible) to mathematically negate the house edge. I mean a "practical advantage" based on logic and insights of the game.

#### Trilobite

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##### Re: How many spins for something to fail?
« Reply #11 on: July 18, 2015, 10:59:25 AM »
How many consecutive spins does it take to prove that a system works or fails?

If betting on one number, at least 150,000 placed bets (not spins) is needed to make any tests or results statistically significant.

You could then divide 150,000 by the number of pockets covered with each bet to find the minimum amount needed to satisfy any proof of success. Therefore, about 12,500 placed bets on 12 numbers would give you a good indication of your chance for success.

You would also need to restart the entire count every time you changed even the slightest detail of your system.
« Last Edit: July 18, 2015, 11:31:14 AM by Trilobite »

#### palestis

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##### Re: How many spins for something to fail?
« Reply #12 on: July 18, 2015, 11:26:18 AM »
The number of spins doesn't really matter if they are not related to the "betting opportunities" of the system. It is the number of times that would call for betting that counts.
In other words it is the number of triggers that has to be  taken into consideration, rather than pure spins.

#### Trilobite

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##### Re: How many spins for something to fail?
« Reply #13 on: July 18, 2015, 11:35:10 AM »
The number of spins doesn't really matter if they are not related to the "betting opportunities" of the system. It is the number of times that would call for betting that counts.
In other words it is the number of triggers that has to be  taken into consideration, rather than pure spins.

This is true when using any up as you lose progression. This type strategy makes the "betting opportunities" or "triggers" the base count unit.

#### dalex1983

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##### Re: How many spins for something to fail?
« Reply #14 on: July 18, 2015, 09:15:04 PM »
@TRILOBITE

YES!, that s exactly what a friend did today, but had a king of crazy ideea....why not use simple bets on dozens and counting just how many times a dozen never came up.

He test it on 3000spins every dozen

The triggers as you say came up 175 times....and lost were just 7 (-106 units every time)

He counted when a dozen never came up 8 or more times than bet
bet            profit
 1 2 4 2 4 6 3 6 6 4 10 8 5 16 10 6 26 14 7 42 20
Of course the profit was different every trigger but in total was -742units loss and 1956units wins so profit 1214 units........ the worse case scenario end it up with -284 at some point of spins with a bankroll of 300(so it has to be double)

Then we tried to play 15 randomly sets of 250spins like somebody here said(from 1000 to 1250 from 3000 to 3250 6000-6250 and so on)....there was no loss(maybe luck was there)....the profit was around 1844

@trilobite i will try 12500 and change the list of numbers.......maybe the list is the problem and the casino has some kind of pattern

I used every time DortmundCasino-Live-1998-180days-Single0-T4
« Last Edit: July 18, 2015, 09:31:32 PM by dalex1983 »