Author Topic: Error and un-Predictability  (Read 1248 times)

kav

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Error and un-Predictability
« on: July 10, 2015, 12:14:09 PM »


 

Reyth

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Re: Error and un-Predictability
« Reply #1 on: July 10, 2015, 05:48:18 PM »
Dang that is some heady stuff there Kav.

By error does he mean variance?
 

kav

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Re: Error and un-Predictability
« Reply #2 on: July 10, 2015, 06:29:55 PM »
Yes it is very technical.
No, by error he means error in determining probabilities.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a favorite of mine for many reasons.
One of his main "themes" is that we have less knowledge and control than we think we have.
He is a mathematics professor, an expert of risk management and a philosopher at heart. And a heretic.

I consider Fooled by Randomness a required reading for anyone serious about random systems, from roulette to the stock market and beyond. It dispels many common false beliefs.
See here All his books on Amazon
« Last Edit: July 10, 2015, 07:24:42 PM by kav »
 

Reyth

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Re: Error and un-Predictability
« Reply #3 on: July 10, 2015, 07:03:01 PM »
I certainly disagree with the first commenter on his book.  Its not necessary to go outside to find growth and development that is contrary to current norms.  Nor is it necessary to trash the very foundations of statistics which would be the analogous conclusion.  We have many irreverent people in the media in the USA.

One of the things I have learned from your site (and I am glad I read that) is about personal permanency(?).  It is very easy to get led astray with one's feelings regarding random chance.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2015, 07:09:02 PM by Reyth »