### Author Topic: The Carsch Star HOT HOT HOT!!!  (Read 10776 times)

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#### Reyth

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##### The Carsch Star HOT HOT HOT!!!
« on: July 09, 2015, 04:51:17 PM »

NOTE:  The Parlay 31 system was probably the inspiration for the Carsch Star which is detailed by Sputnik below.

The Parlay 31 system is very interesting because it combines the parlay method with a progression:

1 1 1 2 2 4 4 8 8

If you lose you move one step through the progression.  If you win you double your bet (this bet counts as a progression step).  You start over with a positive balance.

The progression here allows for 9 losses which is definitely short of getting a lock on EC bets; e.g.  we see 7 reds/odds/lows in a row, if we do a 9 step progression on red etc. we have approximately a 0.0000005003994438560581 chance to not hit red within the 9 steps (1 in 2 million), where a lock would be 9 additional steps.  So adding any steps would be very effective here.

The question is, can a practical system be constructed since this progression requires multiple wins (at least 2) to create profit?
Code: [Select]
`[1]1=-1[2]1=-2[3]1=-3[4]2=-5[5]2=-7[6]4=-11[7]4=-15[8]8=-23[9]8=-31[10]16=-47[11]16=-63[12]32=-95[13]32=-127[14]64=-191[15]64=-255[16]128=-383[17]128=-511[18]256=-767[19]256=-1023[20]512=-1535[21]512=-2047[22]1024=-3071[23]1024=-4095[24]2048=-6143[25]2048=-8191`
Ya this thing is ugly because it can require many multiple wins to finally get a profit if you get a choppy WLWL type series.  So even with the very impractical 25 steps, it isn't possible to lock EC chances with this progression. :shrug:
« Last Edit: July 10, 2015, 08:34:15 PM by Reyth »

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#### GameNeverOver

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##### Re: Parlay 31 Question
« Reply #1 on: July 09, 2015, 06:05:49 PM »
I've experimented with something similar to this idea of yours few days ago and one longer RBRB chop from 15+ (which is not that rare, I assure you) killed it.

Maybe we should try to find what is the reasonable amount of chops that we should wait for, and then start betting..

Ex, waiting 10 chops and then betting.

Just a thought.
=GNO=

#### Reyth

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##### Re: Parlay 31 Question
« Reply #2 on: July 09, 2015, 06:39:21 PM »
Ya the Fisher system gets killed by chops too and of course the problem is that you can get 10 chops in a row, get 1 WW, 7 more chops in a row, get 1 WW etc.

#### Sputnik

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##### Re: Parlay 31 Question
« Reply #3 on: July 10, 2015, 12:03:05 PM »
Star System Variant

Here is a little progression that was first introduced by Carsch on GG.

It is a variant of the original Star System (one of the better public MM systems available on the web), but is better. It requires only about 55% of the original star systems BR and only busts after 30 straight losses...

Any two wins clear the progression. It allows you to catch streaks, as well as allows you to not go broke with WLWLWL.

The progression

Base level:
1
1
2
2
4
4
8
8
16
16

See how to play below.

1 win & parlay (lose and move on to the next bet)
1 win & parlay (lose and move on to the next bet)
2 win & repeat the same bet (In here, in order to move on to the next step, you must lose this bet the first time, or win it and then lose it twice in a row)
2 win & parlay (lose and move on to the next bet)
4 win & repeat the same bet (In here, in order to move on to the next step, you must lose this bet the first time, or win it and then lose it twice in a row)
4 win & parlay (lose and move on to the next bet)
8 win & repeat the same bet (In here, in order to move on to the next step, you must lose this bet the first time, or win it and then lose it twice in a row)
8 win & parlay (lose and move on to the next bet)
16 win & repeat the same bet (In here, in order to move on to the next step, you must lose this bet the first time, or win it and then lose it twice in a row)
16 win & parlay (lose and move on to Recovery 1)

Recovery 1 (this is played just like above)

2
2
4
4
8
8
16
16
32
32

Recovery 2  (This too is played just like above)

6
6
12
12
24
24
48
48
96
96

As you can see, it requires 558 units to play base level, recovery 1 and recovery 2.

Base level = 62 units
Recovery 1 = 124 units
Recovery 2 = 372 units

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#### dobbelsteen

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##### Re: Parlay 31 Question
« Reply #4 on: July 10, 2015, 04:07:37 PM »
I tried to find who is Carsch on internet. Not found.
Sputnik what do you wager EC,dozen or something else? I suppose an EC. Which method do you use.?

#### Reyth

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##### Re: Parlay 31 Question
« Reply #5 on: July 10, 2015, 05:41:58 PM »
Wow Sputnik thanks!

I will try this out!

Seems to be working pretty well!  It doesn't just pay 1 unit like the Martingale or Fisher!  I am getting dynamic profit! : D
« Last Edit: July 10, 2015, 06:40:34 PM by Reyth »

#### Sputnik

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##### Re: Parlay 31 Question
« Reply #6 on: July 10, 2015, 06:38:12 PM »

@Reyth is really powerfull progression.

@dobbelsteen that is how i won with Kavoras Bet ...
And i also test it with even Money bets.

Cheers

#### Reyth

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##### Re: Parlay 31 Question
« Reply #7 on: July 10, 2015, 06:41:24 PM »
You use this as a loss progression with the Kav??

Ya, your max consecutive loss is 25 there (<==== 25!!!  Same as with EC!!!).  Usually you will see 1-7 and occasionally 10+ but usually not much more than 10.

I am trying it out with a Kav variant I designed.  So far its holding.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2015, 06:50:11 PM by Reyth »

#### Sputnik

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##### Re: Parlay 31 Question
« Reply #8 on: July 10, 2015, 06:52:51 PM »
I not use it - i have test the progression with Kavoras Bet ...
I don't use Kavoras strategy as i have not read the original.
I just reckon that 20 number has to hit more frequent then 17 numbers or more easy to get two in a row.

I have also test this with even Money bets and are at the moment testing this with Brett Mortons 22 number bet ...
But even with 22 number bet you can face 15 numbers being ahead 10 to 14 times in a row Before correction.
When you play every trail you get swings and i look for triggers.
For example seven loses and one virtual win - then you have 14 loses and two wins being 3.0 SD.
So i experiment with does figures.

What i know about this progression is that i will never face 30 loses in a row without being in recovery phase - because the biggest SD is 5.49 during several millions of trails.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2015, 07:12:59 PM by Sputnik »

#### Reyth

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##### Re: Parlay 31 Question
« Reply #9 on: July 10, 2015, 07:45:48 PM »
Wow neato.  I would like to learn how to calculate SD while I am playing.  I can then very easily program the comp to do so automatically and provide trigger alerts/betting suggestions/calculations.

Quote
When you play every trail you get swings

What I am doing now is playing the traditional Kav and using a split randomizer with each new session.  This does help to avoid the streaks that would normally occur DUE TO staying in one place (i.e. The Law of the Third sleeps all 10 of your split numbers, which is more likely to be a process of degradation over many spins rather than an instant event) and improves results above random.

Its kinda funny but your posts have now convinced me that I will always play the Kav this way regardless if I am using the Carsch Star or not. : )

To activate the randomizer just enter the number "-2" and place your splits as suggested with the yellow numbers.  You must choose your own DS & corner (this is WHEY too much of a headache to program without proper motivation).  If you find there is no open DS, just re-randomize.

[BLUSH EDIT - I just put the randomizer into the BAC simulator (not easy) and it came back with only very slight statistical improvement and no bankroll improvement; i.e. its alot of effort to apply with very little benefit.  I think the reason this happens is because the total group of 10 numbers is quite strong against the Law of the Third and they are further supported by the corner/double street.  So why do loss streaks occur?  They are unavoidable whether you move your chips or not, its just that the Kav is so strong it is as if the chips are being moved even though they are not; again very little benefit derived from actually moving them after every coup.

FURTHER EDIT - Moving them after every hit HAS improved the statistics significantly; consecutive losses are reduced by almost 17% (from 12 to 10).  This would significantly lower the bankroll requirement but the problem is that it is quite difficult to implement.  I mean I play daily sessions of up to 1000 spins or more with probably 250 or more splits hitting. re-randomizing for every one of those hits would simply wear me out.  I could only see myself doing this if I was in an emergency pinch with a slightly lower bankroll.]
« Last Edit: July 16, 2015, 10:52:14 PM by Reyth »

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#### Reyth

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##### Re: The Carsch Star HOT HOT HOT!!!
« Reply #10 on: July 11, 2015, 05:19:31 AM »
Now that I have played this for awhile, I have been to the first level of debt recovery twice.  I am so thankful for a debt management system that somebody ELSE thought up and tested!  I am terrible at debt management to the point that I don't want to leave any debt on the books for fear of being dragged into debt heck never to return.

This debt management system works like a charm, doubling your profit and thus halving the time required to recover.

WOW!!  I finally made it to the 2nd loss recovery.  That thing really rocks!  It TRIPLES the 1st level recovery speed and SIX-FOLDS the normal profit speed!!  One thing I did when in the 2nd level is go back down to the 1st level when I was close to full recovery; i.e. I was down maybe 70 units and so when I got within 10 units, I just switched to debt recovery 1.

WOW!! Had the most amazing downward streak!  3 times in a row I got within 10 units of recovery and got slammed back down to the 2nd debt recovery level!!  I even got down to the last bet of the 2nd level (96 units).  So, since I have seen this, it means that a 3rd level of recovery is required.  I have found that surfing between levels is definitely possible and advantageous.  So maybe you hit the 3rd level for 3 winning bets and switch back down to the 2nd level for 5 more and then back down to the 1st level to finish the recovery.  That way the risk is minimized.

18
18
36
36
72
72
144
144
288
288

Recovery 3 = 1116

Bringing the total units for all 3 levels to 1674 units.  Also the final bet on the 3rd level may need to be 576 units (on the parlay) which should surpass many table limits.

One thought I have is that the 2nd level is too steep at 3x the 1st level.  Maybe if we bump it down to 2.5?  Maybe the reason it was so steep is because it was the last shot?

Basically, these recovery steps need to outlast all possible variance, so we need to keep adding them and properly spacing them out as is needed?
« Last Edit: July 11, 2015, 05:19:31 PM by Reyth »

#### Sputnik

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##### Re: The Carsch Star HOT HOT HOT!!!
« Reply #11 on: July 11, 2015, 05:33:45 PM »
Here is one other extanded star progression ...

We can stay at the 1-1-1-2-2-2-5-5-5-13-13-13 for 63 units on the base level.

If we lose we can play 2-2-2-4-4-4-10-10-10-26-26-26 for 126 units in recovery 1 level.

If we lose we can play 6-6-6-12-12-12-30-30-30-78-78-78 for 378 units in recovery 2 level.

That's 567 units if we lose all 3 levels.

I belive that would be following staking...

Repeat
Parlay
Parlay
Repeat
Parlay
Parlay
Repeat
Parlay
Parlay and so on ...

I got this from the progression expert GLC or George
Here is the original star progression:

The original Star system was
1-1-1-2/5-10-15-25-40;
2-2-2-4/10-20-30-50-80;
6-6-6-12/30-60-90-150-240

That represents the base bet, recovery 1 and recovery 2 for a total of 900 units.

I Think i have been playing the extended star progression wrong.
I level bet each stage for example two loses and two wins LLWW 1122 +2 units.
But GLC write that you parlay you last attempt - for example Three loses and one win LLLW 112(2)
Last 2 you parlay or else you would need Three winnings to recoup.

1  Repeat
1  Parlay
2  Repeat
2  Parlay
4  Repeat
4  Parlay
8  Repeat
8  Parlay
16  Repeat
16  Parlay

« Last Edit: July 11, 2015, 05:39:55 PM by Sputnik »

#### Reyth

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##### Re: The Carsch Star HOT HOT HOT!!!
« Reply #12 on: July 11, 2015, 05:46:40 PM »
Hmmm, I see there is a ratio between number of bets vs. number of units required.  I am sure there is a much harder ratio to comprehend which is the speed of recovery vs. the risk of getting slammed again.

The only way to answer the most abstruse statistical questions is by putting these into a simulator and finding out the max loss.  Then design a recovery network that will overcome that max loss.

Basically, its how many times can we get hit with 10-13 losses followed by another 10-13 losses before another 10-13 losses can recover the losses from the previous 10-13 losses.  Eventually they will stop hitting in a row before recovery is achieved.  We just have to hope that the overall framework is sufficient to make the successive series of losses a rare enough of an event to succeed, practically speaking.

Actually I think it might be easy to program a simulator for this...  Ok, not easy, easy.  I will be able to complete this later.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2015, 06:15:56 PM by Reyth »

#### ice789

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##### Re: The Carsch Star HOT HOT HOT!!!
« Reply #13 on: July 11, 2015, 06:39:28 PM »
Using a steak calculator online we receive the following results:

1800/37=   .4864864864864865 = 100%
Number of trials (N):51
Length of streak (K):2
Probability of success on one trial (p):4864864864864865
« Last Edit: July 11, 2015, 07:21:53 PM by Reyth »

#### Reyth

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##### Re: The Carsch Star HOT HOT HOT!!!
« Reply #14 on: July 11, 2015, 07:22:42 PM »
Thanks for that analysis Ice!

What does it mean?

Hmmm.  Apparently the 1800 is 18.00.  So the base chance for success is like 48%+.  Ok so you have calculated the base chance of hitting twice in a row.

For some reason the calculator has assigned the same probability regardless of the number of trials.  This of course makes sense because what we are looking for is SUCCESSIVE losses in a row; this will follow a downward curve of probability which is of course the force of equal distribution.  In fact, eventually no more losses will appear.

We already know that this number is 25 for contiguous losses.  What we need to know is how many strings of losses that exceeds 10 will occur before certain recovery sets can complete.  There is going to be a lower limit of the downward swings that we need to find that is in direct proportion to the number & bet size of the recovery sets.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2015, 07:33:52 PM by Reyth »