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Author Topic: Mr Oops! Finding of single number repeat.  (Read 3406 times)

weird

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Mr Oops! Finding of single number repeat.
« on: July 09, 2015, 05:16:34 AM »
[copied from the Late Mr.Oops! [web, which no more in the net]

Gentlemen,
Below an interesting article, I manage to save, before the web gone.
It may or may not accurate, nevertheless some strategy could derived from it.

==========================
WAIT FOR A REPEAT
The tables in this section will answer the question "How many spins do I have to wait, until the last winning outcome repeats?"
The winning outcome can be any one of the single numbers, single or double streets, dozens, columns or the even chances.

The answer is shown in the form of a "hit table" with the total numbers of found first repeats noted for each spin (also in % and accum values).
Example (bottom of page)

The waitings are 1 to 36 spins (plus accumulated longer) or 1 to 111 (plus accumulated longer) - see below - for the single numbers, 1 to 36 (+ acc l) for the single streets, 1 to 18 (+ a l) for double streets, 1 to 9 (+ a l) for dozens and columns, and 1 to 6 (+ a l) for the even chances.

Top of Page To make these tables, every outcome (0, 17, 5th double street, red etc) got its own counter. The counter was intialized to zero when the first occurrence of the outcome was found and then incremented by one for each spin after that, until the next occurrence when the counter (after the counting has been taken into the table) was again initialized to zero.

This means, that no counting was made until after the first occurrence of the outcome. Example for single numbers - start of a day's sequence:

11, 23, 15, 1, 12, 10, 23, 10, 10

At this moment, between spins nine and ten, only 11, 23, 15, 1, 12 and 10 have counters that are initialized. The counter for 11 is at 8, 15 at 6, 1 at 5, 12 at 4, 23 at 2 and the counter for 10 is at 0.

Countings that have been taken into the table at or before this moment are 5 (for 23), 2 (for first 10) and 1 (second 10).

At end-of-day (or after 50th spin where only 50 were available) or end-of-file, no active counters were taken into the tables. This means, that the absence of a repeat until day's end was not counted for. Example for single numbers - end of a day's sequence:

. . . 14, 32, 0, 17, 32, 12

At this moment, after the last spin of the day or file, the counter for 14 is at 5, 0 at 3, 17 at 2, 32 at 1 and the counter for 12 is at 0. None of these countings are taken into the table.

A new day, or a completely new file, resets all counters to the un-initialized state.

This is why the tables do not add upp to the total number of spins.

repeat:

This is why the tables do not add upp to the total number of spins.

LEGEND:
Rpt at: 1st repeat found at this spin after prev occurrence
N o R: Total number of 1st repeats found, at this spin
% o T: % of total 1st repeats found (in 362021 spins)
AN o R: Accumulated number of 1st repeats found
A% o T: Accumulated % of total 1st repeats found (in 362021 spins)

SINGLE NUMBERS (full days)

This table is Copyright © 1999 by XerxX
Rpt at N o R % o T AN o R A% o T
----------------------------------------
1st 9673 3.054 9673 3.054
2nd 9539 3.012 19212 6.066
3rd 9097 2.872 28309 8.938
4th 8901 2.810 37210 11.748
5th 8667 2.736 45877 14.484
6th 8415 2.657 54292 17.141
7th 8204 2.590 62496 19.731
8th 7905 2.496 70401 22.227
9th 7712 2.435 78113 24.661
10th 7331 2.315 85444 26.976
11th 7170 2.264 92614 29.240
12th 6880 2.172 99494 31.412
13th 6778 2.140 106272 33.552
14th 6619 2.090 112891 35.641
15th 6322 1.996 119213 37.637
16th 6107 1.928 125320 39.565
17th 6022 1.901 131342 41.467
18th 5828 1.840 137170 43.307
19th 5552 1.753 142722 45.060
20th 5417 1.710 148139 46.770
21st 5288 1.670 153427 48.439
22nd 5086 1.606 158513 50.045
23rd 4866 1.536 163379 51.581
24th 4755 1.501 168134 53.082
25th 4635 1.463 172769 54.546
26th 4349 1.373 177118 55.919
27th 4344 1.371 181462 57.290
28th 4100 1.294 185562 58.585
29th 4018 1.269 189580 59.853
30th 4027 1.271 193607 61.125
31st 3890 1.228 197497 62.353
32nd 3751 1.184 201248 63.537
33rd 3585 1.132 204833 64.669
34th 3609 1.139 208442 65.808
35th 3424 1.081 211866 66.889
36th 3312 1.046 215178 67.935
37th 3177 1.003 218355 68.938 Top of Page
38th 3141 0.992 221496 69.930
39th 2961 0.935 224457 70.865
40th 2950 0.931 227407 71.796
41st 2803 0.885 230210 72.681
42nd 2829 0.893 233039 73.574
43rd 2539 0.802 235578 74.376
44th 2459 0.776 238037 75.152
45th 2467 0.779 240504 75.931
46th 2430 0.767 242934 76.698
47th 2344 0.740 245278 77.438
48th 2237 0.706 247515 78.144
49th 2247 0.709 249762 78.854
50th 2136 0.674 251898 79.528
51st 2145 0.677 254043 80.205
52nd 2025 0.639 256068 80.845
53rd 1957 0.618 258025 81.462
54th 1838 0.580 259863 82.043
55th 1822 0.575 261685 82.618
56th 1732 0.547 263417 83.165
57th 1670 0.527 265087 83.692
58th 1641 0.518 266728 84.210
59th 1531 0.483 268259 84.693
60th 1589 0.502 269848 85.195
61st 1468 0.463 271316 85.659
62nd 1480 0.467 272796 86.126
63rd 1411 0.445 274207 86.571
64th 1347 0.425 275554 86.997
65th 1278 0.403 276832 87.400
66th 1307 0.413 278139 87.813
67th 1206 0.381 279345 88.194
68th 1221 0.385 280566 88.579
69th 1097 0.346 281663 88.925
70th 1115 0.352 282778 89.277
71st 1108 0.350 283886 89.627
72nd 1023 0.323 284909 89.950
73rd 1043 0.329 285952 90.279
74th 973 0.307 286925 90.587
75th 981 0.310 287906 90.896 Top of Page
76th 899 0.284 288805 91.180
77th 900 0.284 289705 91.464
78th 881 0.278 290586 91.742
79th 803 0.254 291389 91.996
80th 798 0.252 292187 92.248
81st 784 0.248 292971 92.495
82nd 785 0.248 293756 92.743
83rd 718 0.227 294474 92.970
84th 741 0.234 295215 93.204
85th 645 0.204 295860 93.408
86th 672 0.212 296532 93.620
87th 661 0.209 297193 93.828
88th 662 0.209 297855 94.037
89th 602 0.190 298457 94.227
90th 615 0.194 299072 94.422
91st 586 0.185 299658 94.607
92nd 541 0.171 300199 94.777
93rd 574 0.181 300773 94.959
94th 527 0.166 301300 95.125
95th 495 0.156 301795 95.281
96th 474 0.150 302269 95.431
97th 499 0.158 302768 95.589
98th 459 0.145 303227 95.733
99th 456 0.144 303683 95.877
100th 452 0.143 304135 96.020
101st 423 0.134 304558 96.154
102nd 399 0.126 304957 96.280
103rd 394 0.124 305351 96.404
104th 402 0.127 305753 96.531
105th 371 0.117 306124 96.648
106th 312 0.099 306436 96.747
107th 338 0.107 306774 96.853
108th 353 0.111 307127 96.965
109th 299 0.094 307426 97.059
110th 339 0.107 307765 97.166
111th 314 0.099 308079 97.265
>111th 8662 2.735 316741 100.000

316741 = 87.492% of 362021

=================================================     
========================

below my ideas.

----------------------------

    Below a table to see how profit vs losses, till the &th spin.

    ========================

    1st 3.054% x35=106.89u,[-96.946%]x1=-96.946
    2nd 6.066% x34=206.244u,[-93.934% ]x2=-187.868
    3rd 8.938% x33=294.954u,[-91.062% ]x3=-273.186
    4th 11.748% x32=375.936u,[-88.252%]x4=-353.008
    5th 14.484% x31=449.004u,[-85.516% ]x5=-427.58
    6th 17.141% x30=514.23u,[-82.859% ]x6=-497.154
    7th 19.731% x29=572.199u,[-80.269%]x7=-561.883
    -----------------------------------------
    produce losses
    8th 22.227% x28=622.356u,[-77.773%]x8=-622.184
    9th 24.661% x27=665.847,[-75.339 ]x9=-678.051
    10th 26.976% x26=701.376,[-73.024 ]x10=-730.24
    11th 29.240% x25=731, [-70.76 ]x11=-778.36

    =================================
    --------------------
    It is very interesting to note that , if the finding is accurate, or near accurate,
    Then the first to seventh bet will be positive.
    Or am I wrong somewhere?

    ---------------------
    How to read.
    1st 3.054% x35=106.89u,[-96.946%]x1=-96.946

    1st=bet the last spin result for the next FIRST spin.
    ------------
    3.054%=The percentage of winning hit.
    ----------------------

    x35=Multilpy 35unit, since first win=36-1=1unit flatbet.
    ------------------
    =106.89u,= 3.054% winning times 35unit=106.89

    --------------------

    [-96.946%]=losing percentage
    ------------------

    x1=bet flat=1unit losses.

    --------------------
    -96.946=losing unit.

    ---------------------
    Thus we see the winning more than the losses, till the 7th spin.
    From, the 8th spin, upward, produce LOSSES.

    What U THINK?
    ========================
     
   

    Sorry, this should being posted earlier.

    How to bet?
    Say, U bet till 7th spin.

    Last spin result=X.

    Bet X for next 7spins.

    Win probability.

    19.731% x29=572.199u,
    ---------
    losing probability=

    [-80.269%]x-7=-561.883

    POSITIVE?
    -----------------------------------------

    If hit at 7th spin,
    then 36-7=+29unit.

    If lose all 7 spin=-7unit, since flatbet.

    NOW the onus is at the accuracy of the finding.
    If U, gentlemen has capability to test a million spins,
    please post the result here .

    thanks in advance.
     
« Last Edit: July 09, 2015, 01:10:26 PM by weird »


 
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GameNeverOver

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Re: Mr Oops! Finding of single number repeat.
« Reply #1 on: July 09, 2015, 08:00:50 AM »
@Weird
you've done great job here.

I feel the obligation to tell you that here on this site, there are only few guys who are actually testing or thinking about the posts and methods written on the forum and the majority are just bystanders who are not here to participate but to steel someone's ideas or eventually come across the HG and then use it for achieving easy profits. That's the reason why many great contributors across the web decide to stop writing on forums and delete their websites and all the data from the research of the roulette wheel.

About the data you've shared, it can be exploited but we have to determine the limits of variance and then construct a progression which will cover these limits and thus we acquire profits.

Additionally there are already few strategies based on this "sleep for x spins" then wake up approach.
(note: these are not my creations, these are systems that can be found across the web)

1) Wait for 16 unique numbers to appear in 16 consecutive spins and then bet on them till repeat. In the original strategy, the guy mentioned special progression (I forgot it but we can easily make it up) which with just one hit managed to recoup all the previous losses + acquire profit. I, personally think that the stepped progression 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-etc with stop on profit and staying on the same step from the progression on a hit till profit on our numbers would work great.
The only problem with this strategy is that we need to wait for very, very long time before the conditions are met.

2) Wait for 8 unique numbers in 8 cons. spins then bet on these 8 numbers for 4 spins. We bet flat bet (1 unit per number). If there is no hit on our numbers in these 4 spins, it means we have new 4 numbers and we erase 4 numbers from our previous 8 and we add the new 4 numbers then bet 2 units per number for 4 additional spins.
I have never used this strategy but I bet it can be funny situation when you (for example) get your unique numbers: 1,3,29,36,30,6,7,15 and then, in the next 4 spins you get:
31,2,5,5. If something like this happen you are down for 32 units and all you can do is wait for another 8 unique numbers and pray that situation like this won't happen again before you recoup and win.

3) Wait for number to appear two times, then start betting on it to appear once again. Every time another number appears two times, you start betting on that number too. Eventually there will be three or four appearances of one or more numbers in any 100 spins sample, but can we predict when are these appearances going to happen?
Downside of this approach is that we can get our 2X number early in the game and then bet 10 spins (that means 10 units) and then we get another 2X number and bet additional 10 spins (that means 10 + 20 = 30 units wagered and we have only 2 spins remaining till we hit one of our 2 2X numbers and make profits). In the next 10 spins, instead hit on our numbers, we get 6 new 2X numbers and now we must bet on 8 numbers. If we want to recoup the lost + make profits on a single hit we need to raise our bet amounts quite a lot. Or if we take the softer approach, we might keep using softer negative progression, but there is always the risk that variance will eat our bankroll slowly but surely in the process.

Good luck on your journey,
=GNO=
 

weird

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Re: Mr Oops! Finding of single number repeat.
« Reply #2 on: July 09, 2015, 01:08:58 PM »
Dear GameNeverOver,
Thanks for your reply.

U are right when u say VARIANCE.
Only if someone understand the variance, then only one win for long term.
But fortunately, for the casino,
or unfortunately, for the gamblers,
people seems lack of initiative, or ability,
 to understand the variance.

==================
Below a sample of how variance kills this strategy.

Bet a decision, for next seven spins, hoping to hit withinn seven spins.
Abandon bet after seven bet that fail to hit.
Stop bet, after hit, do not bet the rest spins.
----------------------------
Example
   9 first decision, bet 9 for next seven spins.
   1  Number 9, failed to hit,
  12  Number 9, failed to hit,
  27  Number 9, failed to hit,
31    Number 9, failed to hit,
  30  Number 9, failed to hit,
   7  Number 9, failed to hit,
 4  [-7] Number 9, failed to hit, losses=-7.
13   [-7]Number 1, failed to hit, losses=-7.
10   [-7]Number 12, failed to hit, losses=-7.
 8   [-7]Number 27, failed to hit, losses=-7.
33   [-7]Number 31, failed to hit, losses=-7.
 8   [-7]+34 number 8 hit, at second attempt.
16 [-7] stop  the number 8 bet.
28   [-7]
  14 [-7]
  12 [-7]Number10, failed to hit, losses=-7.

==========================
Spielbank Hamburg
Tisch 0001
02.01.2001
Gewinnzahlen:
   9
   1
  12
  27
31 
  30
   7
 4  [-7]
13   [-7]
10   [-7]
 8   [-7]
33   [-7]
 8   [-7]+34
  16 [-7]
28   [-7]
  14 [-7]
  12 [-7]
15 
  16 [-7]+31
   7 [-7]
  21
10   [-7]
31   [-7]
  25 [-7]
20   [-7]
28   [-7]
   9 [-7]
35   [-7]
  34 [-7]
29   [-7]
35   [-7]+33
  32 [-7]
 6   [-7]
  19 [-7]
   7
   9 [-7]
29      +20
28   [-7]
  36 [-7]
26   [-7]
  23 [-7]
  32 [-7]
15   [-7]
33   [-7]
  25 [-7]
10   [-7]
   1 [-7]
35   [-7]
31   [-7]
 6   [-7]
   9 [-7]
  32 [-7]
   1 [-7]+30
  21
24   [-7]
 8   [-7]
24   [-7]+34
  30 [-7]
  34 [-7]
10   [-7]
  32 [-7]
29 
17   [-7]
   7 [-7]
  23 [-7]
  23 [-7]+35
20   [-7]
10   [-7]
   3 [-7]
28   [-7]
11   [-7]
  12
24   [-7]
  25 [-7]
  14 [-7]
 2   [-7]
28       +29
  21 [-7]
   5 [-7]
33   [-7]
26   [-7]
  34 [-7]
22   [-7]
35   [-7]
   9 [-7]
   9 [-7]+35
  14 [-7]
 2   [-7]
28   [-7]
 6   [-7]
28   [-7]+34
15 
  14 [-7]+30
 00 
  25 [-7]
15       +32
13   [-7]
  16 [-7]
13   [-7]+34
33   [-7]
  34 [-7]
24   [-7]
17   [-7]
  34    +33
  16    +29
26   [-7]
29   [-7]
   1
10   [-7]
31   [-7]
   7 [-7]
   3 [-7]
  21 [-7]
13   [-7]
22   [-7]
   9 [-7]
26   [-7]
  23 [-7]
  34 [-7]
  30 [-7]
20   [-7]
26   [-7]+31
28   [-7]
 00
  16 [-7]
  36 [-7]
   3 [-7]
15   [-7]
  19 [-7]
  36 [-7]
  18 [-7]
  36 [-7]+30
20 
   3     +29
  18 [-7]+32
22   [-7]
24   [-7]
  32
28   [-7]
22   [-7]+32
  32 [-7]+33
11   [-7]
33 
24      +29
24      +35
35   [-7]
13   [-7]
   5 [-7]
31   [-7]
 6   [-7]
26 
  18 [-7]
 8   [-7]
 8   [-7]+5
  34 [-7]
   3 [-7]
  23 [-7]
  27 [-7]
29   [-7]
22 
  19 [-7]
  14 [-7]
   1 [-7]
35   [-7]
  16 [-7]
 6   [-7]
 2   [-7]
  12 [-7]
15   [-7]
   9 [-7]
17   [-7]
13   [-7]
 2   [-7]+30
15       +31
  16 [-7]
  34
  25 [-7]
   5 [-7]
35   [-7]
 2      +29
 00  [-7]
  19 [-7]
10   [-7]
 4   [-7]
   7 [-7]
13   [-7]
  18 [-7]
15   [-7]
 8   [-7]
  18 [-7]+33
 8   [-7]+34
  21 [-7]
   1 [-7]
 8      +33
  21 [-7]+33
  23
31   [-7]
33 
 4   
   3  [-7]
17    [-7]
35    [-7]
  27  [-7]
  14  [-7]
  18  [-7]
24    [-7]
   7  [-7]
 4    [-7]
22    [-7]
  14  [-7]+30
   1
   9  [-7]
   7  [-7]+30
28 
  21  [-7]
  30  [-7]
 6    [-7]
17    [-7]
24    [-7]
   1  [-7]
  32  [-7]
 2    [-7]
 2    [-7]+35
   7  [-7]
26    [-7]
35    [-7]
15    [-7]
28    [-7]
17 
   1  [-7]
  30  [-7]
   9  [-7]
  23  [-7]
  19  [-7]
   7  [-7]
33    [-7]
  21  [-7]
  23     +29
  34  [-7]
   7      +31
   7  [-7]+35
20 
  23  [-7]+31
 4    [-7]
11 
33    [-7]
13 
20    [-7]+30
  19
 00   [-7]
  23  [-7]
   1  [-7]
22    [-7]
 4    [-7]
 4    [-7]+35
24    [-7]
  19  [-7]
31    [-7]
  25  [-7]
   1  [-7]
   3
35    [-7]
  19  [-7]+30
  21
  12  [-7]
  19  [-7]
   7  [-7]
  12  [-7]
  23  [-7]
  32  [-7]
31    [-7]
24    [-7]
   7  [-7]+30
  32
20    [-7]
31    [-7]+31
29    [-7]
  16 
  16  [-7]
  19  [-7]
17    [-7]
24    [-7]
  23  [-7]
13    [-7]
13    [-7]+35
20    [-7]
  21  [-7]
   5  [-7]
   7  [-7]
 4    [-7]
31 
15    [-7]
  12  [-7]
   9  [-7]
 00   [-7]
 4nb    [-7]+30
20 nb
  36nb  [-7]
20nb    [-7]
10 nb   [-7]
   3nb  [-7]
15 nb   [-7]
====
Anzahl Spiele:  302
H?figkeiten:

302-1st decision-7last decision,not-bet=294 decision being bet.
only 45decision bet=hit within next seven spins.

250x-7=-1750losses

45hit/294betx100=15.3% hit.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2015, 01:10:58 PM by weird »
 

GameNeverOver

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Re: Mr Oops! Finding of single number repeat.
« Reply #3 on: July 09, 2015, 01:51:08 PM »
people seems lack of initiative, or ability,
 to understand the variance.

People lack patience. :)
 

GameNeverOver

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Re: Mr Oops! Finding of single number repeat.
« Reply #4 on: July 09, 2015, 02:36:06 PM »

I don't quite understand your example, so I'll try to make a testing using the same numbers you've used.

Strategy:
a) No triggers - no waiting - just playing every new number for 7 consecutive spins then stop betting on that number.
b) If the number's hit on the way, we stop betting on that number.

c) We stop and leave the casino after reaching 20 units profit.

Tisch 0001
02.01.2001
Gewinnzahlen:
   9 start betting on #9
   1 (-1) start betting on #1
  12 2X(-1) (-3) start betting on #12
  27 3X(-1) (-6) start betting on #27
31 4X(-1) (-10) start betting on #31
  30 5X(-1) (-15) start betting on #30
   7 6X (-1) (-21) start betting #7
 4  7X(-1) (-28) start betting on #4 and stop betting on #9
13   7X(-1) (-35) start betting on #13 and stop betting on #1
10   7X(-1) (-42) start betting on #10 and stop betting on #12
 8   7X(-1) (-49) start betting on #8 and stop betting on #27
33   7X(-1) (-56) start betting on #33 and stop betting on #31
 8   7X(-1) (-63) (+36) (-27) we remain betting the same 7 numbers
  16 7X(-1) (-34) start betting on #16 and stop betting on #30
28   7X(-1) (-41) start betting on #28 and stop betting on #7
  14 7X(-1) (-48) start betting on #14 and stop betting on #4
  12 7x(-1) (-55) start betting on #12 and stop betting on #13 (see that this number hit on the third spin from the testing?)
15  7X(-1) (-62) start betting on #15 and stop betting on #13
  16 7X(-1) (-69) (+36) (-33) we remain betting the last 7 numbers
   7 7X(-1) (-40) start betting on #7 and stop betting on #10 (this motherf***er hit on 7th spin!)
  21 7X(-1) (-47) start betting on #21 and stop betting on #8
10  7X(-1) (-54) start betting on #10 and stop betting on #16
31   7X(-1) (-61) start betting on #31 and stop betting on #28
...

After giving a little thought on the numbers that followed it was pointless to keep writing when it was more then obvious that this will end like one giant disaster.

But what if, instead playing without waiting for qualifications and VLes, we wait for a little and instead waiting for unique group of 8 or 16, we bet on every number which didn't appear for 15 consecutive spins, betting flat bet for additional 20 spins?
 

scepticus

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Re: Mr Oops! Finding of single number repeat.
« Reply #5 on: July 09, 2015, 04:35:00 PM »
The calculations for the last number to repeat is the probability of one  multiplied by the other . So,
1/37 x 1/37 = 1 chance in 1369 spins.
Streets is 3/37 x 3/37 = 9 chances in 1369 spins - and so on.
You should double - check this with a mathematician, though, because the APES in this forum say I don't understand probability theory !
« Last Edit: July 09, 2015, 04:37:07 PM by scepticus »
 

GameNeverOver

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Re: Mr Oops! Finding of single number repeat.
« Reply #6 on: July 09, 2015, 05:59:35 PM »
The calculations for the last number to repeat is the probability of one  multiplied by the other . So,
1/37 x 1/37 = 1 chance in 1369 spins.
Streets is 3/37 x 3/37 = 9 chances in 1369 spins - and so on.
You should double - check this with a mathematician, though, because the APES in this forum say I don't understand probability theory !

They are APes not apes..
Be nice with them Scepticus. :D

About the probability for a number to appear on the next spin they hold two quite opposite beliefs:
1) "each spin is totally independent from the previous or next spins" but when someone puts down the question: If every spin was independent, then why don't we see 10 repeats on a single number, or 100 reds in a row? then they answer with
2) "because the other numbers have the same chance for appearing" wtf?

I know that beneath that ignorant stand they hold, there is nice but afraid man hiding and waiting to be saved..
 

scepticus

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Re: Mr Oops! Finding of single number repeat.
« Reply #7 on: July 09, 2015, 08:15:06 PM »
When they are nice to me, GNO, I'll be nice to them . They are not here to be nice to anyone  - just to give us the benefit of their - their - their - well their ignorance posing as wisdom.
I suppose it was unfair to call them Apes - unfair to Apes ! Perhaps I should have called them parrots as it seems a better description. !
btw I know what a tongue - in - cheek post is !
also . Sorry Weird for interrupting your thread .
« Last Edit: July 09, 2015, 08:17:38 PM by scepticus »
 

sqzbox

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Re: Mr Oops! Finding of single number repeat.
« Reply #8 on: July 10, 2015, 03:14:11 AM »
Ah - Mr Oops!  I remember him well. A nice guy, a true gentleman, sorely missed. In fact when he called for contributions I wrote an article for him. If you have the website archived you will find it entitled "A Discussion of Certain Common Strategies". Anyway - that's beside the point.

The problem here is that it would appear that the data is flawed and so the numbers are just plain wrong - or perhaps the data is OK but the calculations are bad. I'm not sure how it was derived or calculated but I did some research on this type of approach a while ago.

In the next post I will copy in a table I created using a Monte Carlo simulation off random data (I have to separate the posts because the forum is telling me "too much data"). I ran 10 simulations of 10,000 spins each and averaged the results. You could look at it as a 100,000 spin database I suppose but even so it is amazing how variance can affect the results over such a long sample. You would expect that each subsequent spin would be slightly less than the previous one, and this is true most of the time, but variance has caused the occasional long-term glitch to show up - look at rows 1 and 2 for example, and 10 and 11. Anyway, the below is what I believe to be the truth of the matter. 

You will notice that these results are significantly different from the ones published by Mr Oops! In fact, they have to be! If you take the first row of Mr Oops! data for example you will see that you should be able to profit by simply continually just betting the last number out. I don't think so!

Now, it has to be stated, in the interests of full disclosure, that these numbers are an approximation only - albeit a very good approximation - because I didn't take into account in the calculations the effect of the initial wait before the number shows up at the start. But I don't believe that this would affect the end results in any significant way - that is, it probably wouldn't even show up in the numbers at all since they are rounded to 3 decimal places anyway.
 

sqzbox

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Re: Mr Oops! Finding of single number repeat.
« Reply #9 on: July 10, 2015, 03:15:43 AM »
1
2.677
2
2.755
3
2.630
4
2.436
5
2.436
6
2.423
7
2.232
8
2.284
9
2.203
10
2.139
11
2.157
12
2.050
13
1.928
14
1.865
15
1.879
16
1.789
17
1.695
18
1.695
19
1.586
20
1.663
21
1.472
22
1.461
23
1.435
24
1.516
25
1.358
26
1.313
27
1.359
28
1.376
29
1.196
30
1.253
31
1.186
32
1.177
33
1.091
34
1.096
35
1.099
36
1.006
37
0.972
38
0.957
39
1.023
40
0.893
41
0.895
42
0.904
43
0.796
44
0.807
45
0.785
46
0.812
47
0.793
48
0.723
49
0.760
50
0.659
51
0.601
52
0.663
53
0.631
54
0.651
55
0.589
56
0.569
57
0.604
58
0.582
59
0.477
60
0.547
61
0.523
62
0.598
63
0.514
64
0.434
65
0.458
66
0.449
67
0.440
68
0.398
69
0.463
70
0.409
71
0.398
72
0.418
73
0.389
74
0.333
75
0.403
76
0.314
77
0.332
78
0.348
79
0.304
80
0.292
81
0.292
82
0.296
83
0.303
84
0.262
85
0.302
86
0.273
87
0.276
88
0.226
89
0.257
90
0.279
91
0.228
92
0.223
93
0.177
94
0.213
95
0.206
96
0.172
97
0.181
98
0.188
99
0.184
100
0.170
101
0.156
102
0.177
103
0.179
104
0.143
105
0.160
106
0.140
107
0.177
108
0.125
109
0.130
110
0.129
>=111
4.960
 

weird

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Re: Mr Oops! Finding of single number repeat.
« Reply #10 on: July 10, 2015, 06:14:45 AM »
Gentlemen,
Thanks for your ideas/opinions.

Thanks GNO,
I see that your quote, interesting.

"But what if, instead playing without waiting for qualifications and VLes, we wait for a little and instead waiting for unique group of 8 or 16, we bet on every number which didn't appear for 15 consecutive spins, betting flat bet for additional 20 spins?"
================

Regarding the VARIANCE,

If the bet selection = bet last decision, to hit in NEXT SEVEN SPINS, then, the probability=
==================
szbox­­­­­­­­­­­ say =17.5% .

Mr.Oops! finding=19.731% .

my inacurate calculation=15.3% hit.
===============================
Thus if we , as GNO suggest,
if we wait for 8 miss, or 16 miss,
then
========================
sqzbox­­­­­­­­­­­ say =17.5%
100attempt may have 17.5 hit.

Thus after 8 unhit.
The RISK=
100-8=92, there may be 17.5hit/92 remaining attempt.

after 16 unhit.
The RISK=
100-16=84, there may be 17.5hit/84attempt.
======================
Mr.Oops! finding=19.731%
or 19.7/100 attempts.

Thus after 8 unhit.
The RISK=
100-8=92, there may be 19.7hit/92attempt.

after 16 unhit.
The RISK=
100-16=84, there may be 19.7hit/84attempt.
================

and my inacurate finding
=15.3% hit.
=15.3/100attempts

Thus after 8 unhit.
The RISK=
100-8=92,
 there may be
 15.3 hit/92attempt.

after 16 unhit.
The RISK=
100-16=84, there may be 15.3hit/84attempt.
================

Or in other style of calculation.

If after say 20attempts,
there is only 1 hit,
Then ,
100-20=80remaining attempts,

then...
sqzbox­­­­­­­­­­­ say =17.5% .
thus , after 1hit in 20attempts

16.6hit/80attempts
=====================
Mr.Oops! finding=19.731% .
thus , after 1 hit in 20attempts,

 18.7hit/80attempts
================
my inaccurate calculation=15.3% hit.
thus , after 1 hit in 20attempts,
14.3hit/80attempts

============
Since we cant predict future, but bet accordingly to the law of probability, and take risk accordingly, we may bet so that the profit will greater than the losses, in the long run.

That my opinion,
 on how to bet variance.
===========
Since I am programing illiterate,
it will be helpful, if someone could do a very long test, preferably, 1millions spins, to get the ,

"bet last decision, single number, to see, how many will hit in first seven spins, in percentage"

 Thanks for reading.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2015, 06:17:46 AM by weird »
 

Mike

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Re: Mr Oops! Finding of single number repeat.
« Reply #11 on: July 10, 2015, 09:14:45 AM »

About the probability for a number to appear on the next spin they hold two quite opposite beliefs:
1) "each spin is totally independent from the previous or next spins" but when someone puts down the question: If every spin was independent, then why don't we see 10 repeats on a single number, or 100 reds in a row? then they answer with
2) "because the other numbers have the same chance for appearing" wtf?

I don't know why you think there's a contradiction. I've already addressed this more than once. Apparently you didn't understand.

BTW, it's ok for scepticus to say I'm "full of SH*T" call me an APE and generally throw insults around, but when I say that the forum reminds me of Alice in Wonderland I get a warning?
« Last Edit: July 10, 2015, 09:18:05 AM by Mike »
 

GameNeverOver

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Re: Mr Oops! Finding of single number repeat.
« Reply #12 on: July 10, 2015, 09:24:43 AM »
@Wierd

First you need to rethink your undestanding of the probability. Ex. 16% probability that we will hit our number in next 100 spins doesn't equals 16 hits in 100 spins/attempts. If this was the case then by betting on few numbers and using simple stepped progression we will make profits on any session. It means that there is 16% probability that in the next 100 spins/attempts we will have at least 1 hit on our number. Anyway, we need to get a little back to explain few things when probability is concerned.

1) The probability for 1 number to hit in 1 spin is 1/37 or around 2.7%, multiply this with 100 (spins/attempts) and we get the number of hits on that single number IF the wheel followed normal distribution which leads us to 2.7 expected hits in 100 consecutive spins. We know that because of variance we will never encounter perfect distribution, not even in sample bigger then 100.000 spins. There will always be +/- balance of hits on different numbers. Anyway, following the 1/37 probability, we can expect 2.7 appearances per 100 spins/attempts.
2) Following the same logic, if we get a hit on our number on 25th spin we can expect 2.7-1=1,7 hit(s) in the next 75 spins/attempts, translated into percentage it equals 2.27% per spin. I know that it looks illogical because all of us have seen that after number has been hit it get additional hits in the following spins, but we must respect the VARIANCE (she acts like rich, frustrated bitch) and according to Her Frustrated Majesty, every number has the equal potential to become and remain red hot or turn dead cold, without any kind of warning.

What I can tell you for sure Weird is that it is always smarter to wait for a sleeping beauty to wake up then to try to do it with a beauty that spent whole night f***ing around the neighborhood: first one is resting and sooner or later will wake up and be rested and ready to put smile on your face, and the second one is probably wasted so she couldn't care less for you and must lay down and sleep to rest.

Like I've already said in one post in "Roulette Wheel Is Beatable" thread, roulette and women have lots of common so you must treat the roulette wheel like woman if you want to become successful in this game. :)

=GNO=
 

GameNeverOver

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Re: Mr Oops! Finding of single number repeat.
« Reply #13 on: July 10, 2015, 09:41:06 AM »
BTW, it's ok for scepticus to say I'm "full of SH*T" call me an APE and generally throw insults around, but when I say that the forum reminds me of Alice in Wonderland I get a warning?

I'm totally against insulting Mike, but I think that he said that not to insult you but because you didn't accept his challenge to show your VB skill in front of his eyes. So this is somehow softer version to the "pussy", "wussy", "coward" and "puta" titles which are given to every man who is not ready to take a stand and defend his dignity and manhood - and because you openly refused to accept the challenge I don't see any reason for you to complain about someone saying that you are "full of s***".

Can you give me just one reasonable reason why you didn't accept the challenge?
If you was a system player, I would understand: the reason would be keeping your system secret, but you are advantage player and that means that you possess skills to determine the sector where the ball will land based on  the number of rotations, speed of ball etc.. So accepting the challenge and presenting your skills in front of Scepticus's eyes will just clear the things out for every member on this forum and slowly but surely every system player (including me) will start learning VB and "upgrading" our primitive profitable ways into more sophisticated and extra profitable ways..

Come on Mike accept the challenge!