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Author Topic: G.U.T my opinion.  (Read 4083 times)

weird

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G.U.T my opinion.
« on: July 05, 2015, 06:18:04 AM »
Gentlemen,
I try very hard to understand Winkel's G.U.T,
but seem unable to really grasp the idea.
Maybe some gentlemen here could help.

I think that...

The law of third,
says most of the time,

 ONLY "24numbers/37spins"

thus...

at the 37th spin.

if only 24hit/37spins.

13sleep vs 24hit .

this mean, most of the time,
if we take 24/37 as a parameter,
in 37spins,
hit will be more than sleep,
by 24-13=11time.

the tilt point, is when...
18unhit vs 18hit

thus from 18hit to 24hit=6more hit.

1]if there no repeat in the first of 18hit/18spins,
which possible but, quite low probability,
then 6more hit will likely to occur in next 17spins.
if we assume there will 24hit/37spins

this mean, the risk=6hit/17spins,
which will cause huge losses, if we flatbet all 17spins...and the winning come late!

Where The Risk?

if the
18unhit vs 18 hit,
[with presume 24hit/37spins],
24-18=6 ,there will 6 more hit, at 37th spin.

then to win at least a single hit,
=6hit minus 5 losses=1.
6hit + 5losses=11spins.

meaning we must win 6spin in next 11spins bet!

thus 37-11=26th spins.
this mean if at 26th spin,
the result is 18 unhit vs 18hit,
and we presume that 24hit/37spin, will materialised, then, if flatbet all
remaining spins=11spins, and the 24/37.
then u will win 1spin...presume the winning come late.

Of course if the winning come early, then why bet the remaining bet!?

18hit will normaly materialized after more than 20spins, meaning there will be at least two repeat.
If at 20th spin,
there is 18unhit vs 18hit,
then take 24/37 as parameter.
the risk= 6hit in next 17spins.

below a table of what I think, if we take the average=24hit in 37spins.
With the 18 vs 18 , as the tilt point.

if ..
if 24hit/37 as parameter.
18 vs 18 happend at 18th spin.
then at 37th spin, the risk, will be=6hit in next 19 spins!

EXAMPLE= if 18vs18,
happened at 18th spins=
then37-18=19remaining spin,
the risk will be 6hit in 19spins.

=====================
=====================
if 18unhit vs 18hit happen at....
1]18th spin=then the risk=6hit in next 19spins.

1]18th spin=6hit/19spins.
2]19th=6/18
3]20th=6/17
4]21st=6/16
5]22nd=6/15
6]23rd=6/14
7]24th=6/13
8]25th=6/12 equilibrium
9]26th=6/11 sure win.
10]27th=6/10
11]28th=6/9
12]29th=6/8
13]30th=6/7
14]31st=6/6

above table assume that the wins come late and flatbet.

of course,
1] the win will come early.

2]the above just a risk table if u set the parameter to 24hit in 37spins, which may not happen!

3]u may adjust the parameter to 23,22,20 etc.

What U think?


 

weird

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Re: G.U.T my opinion.
« Reply #1 on: July 05, 2015, 09:18:58 AM »
Here another TABLE of what I think of Winkel's GUT.

Assume that we will have 24hit/37spins as dictate by the Law of third, as a MAJOR occurence.

Thus at 26th spin.
with 11spins to go,

thus if we have at 26th spin,

1] 11 unhit vs 26hit ,
then the risk, is over the 24/37 !

2] 12 unhit vs 25 hit.
then the risk, is over the 24/37 !

3] 13 unhit vs 24hit.
then the risk is within the 24/37 !

4] 14 unhit vs 23hit,
 then the risk=1hit in next 11spins!

5] 15 unhit vs 22hit,
 then the risk=2 hit in next 11spins!

6] 16 unhit vs 21hit,
 then the risk=3 hit in next 11spins!

7] 17  unhit vs 20hit,
 then the risk=4 hit in next 11spins!

8] 18 unhit vs 19hit,
 then the risk=5hit in next 11spins!

9]19 unhit vs 18hit,
 then the risk=6 hit in next 11spins!

10]20 unhit vs 17 hit,
 then the risk=7 hit in next 11spins!

11]21unhit vs 16hit,
 then the risk=8 hit in next 11spins!

of course, the 19unhit vs 18hit, will occur at the
18th spin. 19th spin, 20th spins, 21st spin,or even at the 37th spin!.

Thus Gentlemen,
we could see how the risk/reward,
in a presumed 24hit/37spins, in a scope of the 26th spin.

Of course u may make a table of 24/37, in the scope of 20th spin, 21st,22nd,23rd,24th,25th etc...

Above is just my opinion on how to bet the GUT.
and of course , if the 24hit, fail to materialized in 37 spin, and winner come late , then flatbet will cause huge losses.

Say how about,
19unhit vs 18hit
occured, in how many spin?
==================

19unhit vs 18hit
occured in the 18th spin,
thus the risk, if 24hit/37 spins,
=6hit in next 19spin

19unhit vs 18hit=
19th spin=6/18

19unhit vs 18hit
20th spin=6/17

19unhit vs 18hit
 21st  spin=6/16

19unhit vs 18hit
 22nd spin=6/15

19unhit vs 18hit
23rd   spin=6/14

19unhit vs 18hit
 24th spin=6/13

19unhit vs 18hit
 25th spin=6/12

19unhit vs 18hit
 26th spin=6/11

19unhit vs 18hit
 27th spin=6/10
and so on...
========================

Why 24hit in 37 spins,
because law of third says so!

In a test of million spins, 24hit/37  is the majority,
thus a huge win may offset the losses.

May someone please post  the most number of single hit in 37spins, after a million spins test, by the late Mr. Oops?

Any opinion.?

Thanks.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: G.U.T my opinion.
« Reply #2 on: July 05, 2015, 10:00:18 AM »
Weird your approach of the 2/3 rule is very interest and new on the forum.
The dificulty is to discover the sleeping 12 numbers. It should be much easier when the tabble display shows the stats of the last 37 numbers. Without such a display you must note every spin. At the table it is hardly impossible.

An excel note program should be a sollution. You can try out your idea in the fun mode of a RNG roulette.

There are easier methods to use with success the 2/3 rule.
 

BlueAngel

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Re: G.U.T my opinion.
« Reply #3 on: July 05, 2015, 11:03:37 AM »
The GUT simply bets the 19 numbers which have not appeared VS the 18 numbers which have already appeared.
Then bets the 19 numbers with 1 appearance VS the 18 which have 2 hits,
bets 19 numbers with 2 appearances vs the 18 with 3 hits each and so on...
The principle is to wait when there is almost even amount of numbers on each side and back the side which has 19 numbers against the side which has 18, after a successful bet, the 2 sides would have reversed the 18 to 19 ratio,thus the side which you always bet has always 19 numbers with less appearances which are going to be 18 when the bets succeeds.
Like Weird accurately pointed, the weakness is that we don't know when exactly is going to happen.
Only an approximation could be predetermined, personally I've seen 30 different numbers within 37 spins.
This kind of bet is not getting hurt by many different numbers,but from a lot of repeats,I have seen 18 different numbers with 19 repeats within a cycle of 37 spins,this would be a loss for GUT.
The German author suggest to bet only once per case,then wait for the next opportunity and always he recommended to bet flat without progression.
Let's make 2 steps further, if we expect the minimum we could not be too wrong,for example if we want to bet that at least 7 repeats are going to occur within 37 spins, then we could wait for 6 repeats and the bet all the appeared numbers till a 7th repeat happens.
The 2nd way is to expect at least 18 different numbers within 37 spins.therefore we wait for 17 different numbers and then we bet the other 20 which have not appeared in order for one of them to come.
Which of the 2 ways I've just described could be better and why?
Let's assume that we have 17 different numbers by 24th spin, we should bet 20 numbers for the remaining 13 spins.
If we could Martingale the 20 numbers all the way to the 37th spin we would be 100% winners.
This happens because we don't know when exactly in the remaining 13 spins,our win,is going to occur.
At least with this way you can be sure that you will never exceed a martingale progression of 13 steps, in the contrary,when you bet an EC,you could encounter losing streaks of 14,15,16...or more!
Let's take a closer look on the other way,we expect at least 7 repeats within 37 spins,thus we wait for 6 repeats to occur first and then we bet all the numbers which have appeared that far,let's assume the 6 repeats happen on the 24th spin and the total of the appeared numbers is 18,so we should bet these 18 numbers for only 1 win within the next 13 spins.
This case is similar with the previous but here you have to add each number which makes you lose because we bet all appeared numbers, no matter how many times have already appeared.
24th spin in my examples comes from my empirical observation,so if we could say that the average of unique/different numbers is 24 per 37 spins,then the average spin in order to activate the trigger of the 2 mentioned ways is 24th.
For someone who likes the idea of aggressive progression like Martingale,with such criteria is much better because you are working within certain limits/frames and with very high degree of certainty.
If we look this under the perspective that we have limited the 25 losing streak record of the EC's to 13,this is a very serious improvement!
The next question is: "can we afford such progression?"
The second question is: "Does the table's maximum collaborate with such progression?"
If the answer to one or both of the above questions is no, then we should elaborate a trigger progression which makes once or mostly twice a step per cycle and then continues where it stopped on the next cycle of 37 spins.
In other words,to determine a winning margin like Harry Joel described elsewhere.
I'd appreciate you comments and suggestions.
« Last Edit: July 05, 2015, 11:09:30 AM by BlueAngel »
 

Janusz

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Re: G.U.T my opinion.
« Reply #4 on: July 05, 2015, 11:39:02 AM »
Quote
The GUT simply bets the 19 numbers which have not appeared VS the 18 numbers which have already appeared.
Then bets the 19 numbers with 1 appearance VS the 18 which have 2 hits,
bets 19 numbers with 2 appearances vs the 18 with 3 hits each and so on...
The principle is to wait when there is almost even amount of numbers on each side and back the side which has 19 numbers against the side which has 18, after a successful bet, the 2 sides would have reversed the 18 to 19 ratio,thus the side which you always bet has always 19 numbers with less appearances which are going to be 18 when the bets succeeds.

Thats not gut. This statement is absolutely wrong.
 

weird

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Re: G.U.T my opinion.
« Reply #5 on: July 05, 2015, 03:17:07 PM »
Gentlemen,
Thanks for your replies.

Dear BA,
With due respect.

May u please show us how to bet,
 with these real numbers?

Your teaching will be greatly appreciated.
Thanks in advance.

==================

Euro wheel.

Spielbank Hamburg
Tisch 0001
01.01.2001
Gewinnzahlen:

17 
   3
  18
35 
24 
  30
31 
  25
  30
  16
  27
31
  32
15 
  18
   3
11 
  19
  19
31 
20 
20 
   5
20 
26 
   3
31 
11 
13 
17 
  30
  30
  34
----
  14
   7
  19
24 
10 
  30
  18
  27
  36
  36
17 
33
   7
24 
29 
  19
26 
 0
26 
  32
   3
35 
13 
----
29 
   3
  25
 6 
31 
   9
  16
 4 
13 
20 
   5
26 
13 
33 
  16
24 
  12
  34
  12
20 
----
   1
10 
10 
  30
   3
 0
22
24 
35 
  25
13 
17 
   9
 2 
17 
35 
35 
26 
   7
----
  12
35 
   1
  12
   1
  16
31 
10 
29 
   3
17 
  27
28 
35 
----
  36
  14
22 
  34
20 
  32
11 
22 
  25
 

BlueAngel

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Re: G.U.T my opinion.
« Reply #6 on: July 05, 2015, 03:26:18 PM »
Quote
The GUT simply bets the 19 numbers which have not appeared VS the 18 numbers which have already appeared.
Then bets the 19 numbers with 1 appearance VS the 18 which have 2 hits,
bets 19 numbers with 2 appearances vs the 18 with 3 hits each and so on...
The principle is to wait when there is almost even amount of numbers on each side and back the side which has 19 numbers against the side which has 18, after a successful bet, the 2 sides would have reversed the 18 to 19 ratio,thus the side which you always bet has always 19 numbers with less appearances which are going to be 18 when the bets succeeds.

Thats not gut. This statement is absolutely wrong.

If what you said is true, then you should back up what you claim.
Perhaps I've described it incorrectly,but since you are not explaining where I was wrong,your comment is useless.
So are you going to explain what is not correct from what I've described or you just want to make comments like: "this is not true", "this is wrong", "you are mistaken"...etc??
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: G.U.T my opinion.
« Reply #7 on: July 05, 2015, 04:14:13 PM »
18 Random numbers have the same valid as an EC. The features of a 19/18 system   are the same as the features of an EC system with the zero.
The weakness of a 19/18 system is, you must bet 18 or 19 units per spin. The chance on a loss is likely. The risk of a large loss is very big.
Why  shall we play ingenious systems while very simple systems are avalable with lower risk?

The 19/18 system is unsuitable for negative progression.
 

BlueAngel

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Re: G.U.T my opinion.
« Reply #8 on: July 05, 2015, 05:00:52 PM »

EXAMPLE

(Euro wheel)
FROM:
Spielbank Hamburg
Tisch 0001
01.01.2001
Gewinnzahlen:
                             
               UNIQUE NUMBERS COUNT    /   REPEATERS COUNT
17                                            1
 3                                            2
18                                            3
35                                            4
24                                            5
30                                            6
31                                             7
25                                            8
30                                                                                           1
16                                             9
27                                            10
31                                                                                            2
32                                            11
15                                             12
18                                                                                           3
 3                                                                                            4
11                                              13
19                                             14
19                                                                                           5
31                                                                                           6  START BETTING 14 APPEARED NUMBERS
20                                           15                                                -14 UNITS,NOW 15 UNITS BET
20                                                                                          7  36-(14+15)= +7 UNITS,STOP
 5                                            16
20                                                                                          8
26                                           17 START BETTING 20 NOT APPEARED NUMBERS
 3                        - 20 UNITS,NOW BET 40 UNITS           9
31                        - 60 UNITS,NOW BET 80 UNITS          10
11                        - 140 UNITS,NOW BET 180 UNITS         11
13                                     18 (9 X 36)-(140 + 180)= 324 - 320 = + 4 UNITS STOP & WAIT NEXT 37 SPINS
17                                                                                            12
30                                                                                           13
30                                                                                           14
34                                           19
14                                           20
 7                                            21
19                                                                                            15
24                                                                                            16
END OF 37 CYCLE - RESTART CHARTING                               
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

10                                           1
30                                           2
18                                           3
27                                           4
36                                           5
36                                                                                             1
17                                           6
33                                           7
 7                                            8
24                                           9
29                                          10
19                                          11
26                                          12
 0                                           13
26                                                                                              2
32                                          14
 3                                           15
35                                          16
13                                          17 START BET 20 UNITS
29                                 - 20 UNITS, NOW BET 40               3                                       
 3                                  - 60 UNITS, NOW BET 80               4
25                                          18  (4 X 36)-(60 + 80) = 144 - 140 = + 4 UNITS STOP
 6                                           19
31                                          20
 9                                           21
16                                          22
 4                                           23
13                                                                                              5
20                                          24
 5                                           25
26                                                                                           6 START BETTING 25 APPEARED NUMBERS
13                                                                                             7 +11 UNITS, STOP & WAIT NEXT 37 SPINS
33                                                                                            8
16                                                                                             9
24                                                                                            10
12                                         26
34                                         27

END OF 37 CYCLE - RESTART CHARTING                               
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
12                                          1
20                                          2
 1                                           3
10                                          4
10                                                                                                       1
30                                          5
 3                                           6
 0                                           7
22                                          8
24                                          9
35                                         10
25                                         11
13                                         12
17                                         13
 9                                          14
 2                                          15
17                                                                                            2
35                                                                                           3
35                                                                                           4
26                                     16
 7                                      17  START BET 20 UNITS
12                                 - 20 UNITS, NOW BET 40             5
35                                 - 60 NOW BET 80 UNITS             6  START BETTING 17 APPEARED NUMBERS
 1                                   - 140 NOW BET 180                       7  +19 UNITS,STOP
12                                - 320 NOW BET 420 (20 X 21)        8
 1                                  - 740 NOW BET 940 (20 X 47)       9
16                          18 (47 X 36)-(740 + 940) = 1692 - 1680 = +12 UNITS STOP & WAIT NEXT 37 SPINS 31                                      19
10                                                                                                      10
29                                      20
 3                                                                                                       11
17                                                                                                      12
27                                      21
28                                      22
35                                                                                                      13
36                                      23
14                                      24

END OF 37 CYCLE - RESTART CHARTING                               
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
« Last Edit: July 05, 2015, 05:23:03 PM by BlueAngel »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: G.U.T my opinion.
« Reply #9 on: July 05, 2015, 05:31:35 PM »
18 Random numbers have the same valid as an EC. The features of a 19/18 system   are the same as the features of an EC system with the zero.
The weakness of a 19/18 system is, you must bet 18 or 19 units per spin. The chance on a loss is likely. The risk of a large loss is very big.
Why  shall we play ingenious systems while very simple systems are avalable with lower risk?

The 19/18 system is unsuitable for negative progression.

I'm afraid you are missing the most important element which is NOT the amount of numbers!
If you cannot understand plain English why don't you stick with your Excel sheet and stop repeating the same in every post on this forum?!!  >:( [size=78%] [/size]
 

Janusz

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Re: G.U.T my opinion.
« Reply #10 on: July 05, 2015, 08:33:42 PM »
If what you said is true, then you should back up what you claim.
Perhaps I've described it incorrectly,but since you are not explaining where I was wrong,your comment is useless.
So are you going to explain what is not correct from what I've described or you just want to make comments like: "this is not true", "this is wrong", "you are mistaken"...etc??

You should read the basics. You didn´t describe it incorrectly, you didn´t understand how to count and to detect crossings.

If I´d say: Bet Red. And you go and claim betting Black is not working. What can I tell except: Read again.

btw: I´m winkel
 

BlueAngel

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Re: G.U.T my opinion.
« Reply #11 on: July 05, 2015, 08:39:34 PM »
If what you said is true, then you should back up what you claim.
Perhaps I've described it incorrectly,but since you are not explaining where I was wrong,your comment is useless.
So are you going to explain what is not correct from what I've described or you just want to make comments like: "this is not true", "this is wrong", "you are mistaken"...etc??

You should read the basics. You didn´t describe it incorrectly, you didn´t understand how to count and to detect crossings.

If I´d say: Bet Red. And you go and claim betting Black is not working. What can I tell except: Read again.

btw: I´m winkel

Aha, I see.
So you bet the 18 numbers, not the 19, correct?

 

Janusz

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Re: G.U.T my opinion.
« Reply #12 on: July 05, 2015, 09:05:39 PM »
G.U.T is in this world since 2008

First Rule is: Don´t bet more than 17 numbers.

You didn´t get the counting. Pls read the basics.
I don´t explain basics anymore

br
winkel
 

BlueAngel

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Re: G.U.T my opinion.
« Reply #13 on: July 05, 2015, 09:44:15 PM »
G.U.T is in this world since 2008

First Rule is: Don´t bet more than 17 numbers.

You didn´t get the counting. Pls read the basics.
I don´t explain basics anymore

br
winkel

But you have removed the instructions from the other forum
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: G.U.T my opinion.
« Reply #14 on: July 06, 2015, 01:18:38 PM »
BA do you have the courage to play the G.U.T method in a BM casino. I doubt. I try to give a fair judgment of the different systems.