Author Topic: Trend Following The Wheel, Bet Flatbet.  (Read 3281 times)

weird

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Trend Following The Wheel, Bet Flatbet.
« on: July 03, 2015, 04:05:00 AM »


Gentlemen,

If U ever read any articles,or study the "TREND FOLLOWING" strategies of betting the futures market, u will understand what I try to tell here.

I THINK, we may profit by following the trend , the trend of the roulette wheel behavior.

Say, u   bet the EC, BLACK, for 1000spins, flatbet 1 dollar, or 1 unit.
And then make a CHART of the win and loss result, u will see...

1]The line zig-zagging to higher and higher into the positive side, mean that the BLACK making huge profit.

2]The line zig-zagging to lower and lower into the negative side, mean that the BLACK making huge losses.

3]The line keep zig zag the zero value line, into the negative , then positive and then negative, and then positive and the negative again, caused by the House-Edge, pesky green of 2.7%...and rtm.

4]Move very high to positive, then,
very low to negative side, or vice versa.

So how are we going to make profit, by 'follow the trend' of the FLATBET EVEN CHANCE CHART?

example of OVER SIMPLIFIED method.

Make a simple chart of Bet BLACK flatbet, 1unit.

1]when the line move into positive side, bet BLACK, 1 unit, keep betting BLACK, as long as the line in the positive line.

2]If the line move to negative side, change bet to RED, keep betting RED, as long as the line of "bet BLACK" in the negative side.

Thus we hope the line will move HIGHER, or lower,[ALBEIT PESKY ZERO, -2.7 losses]

Of course, we need to set the parameter to cut losses, and take profit!

1]Profit could  only materialized, if HUGE DEVIATION occurred!

2] Huge losses, will be materialized, if the line keep zig zag along the zero value line, where cut losses, keep accumulating.

Gentlemen,

Since I am computer illiterate,
Could anyone , post a few charts, of flatbet EC,
say, bet  BLACK only. for a few hundred spins.

1]That show line moving high into positive side.

2]That show line moving low into negative side.

3]That show line zig zag along ZERO value.

Thus we could see the behavior of the wheel, flatbet.

And make some lively debate and discussion, of how,[if we could],
 take advantage of so called TREND following.

Thanks in advance.


 

kav

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Re: Trend Following The Wheel, Bet Flatbet.
« Reply #1 on: July 03, 2015, 05:53:51 AM »
This is a very interesting issue.

I believe there are 3 types of "trends:
1. Same color long streaks
2. Chops (alternating colors
3. 2-3 same color followed by 2-3 of the different color etc.

The hard part is to decide what kind of trend (id any) we are witnessing.
 

weird

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Re: Trend Following The Wheel, Bet Flatbet.
« Reply #2 on: July 03, 2015, 06:51:41 AM »
Thanks Kav, for your reply.

Since we cannot PREDICT future deviation and RTM, and the pesky GREEN.

I see there three short term trend.
when we bet FLATBET for tens of spins.

 for example, if we flatbet 1unit BLACK only, on Euro roulette.
On the line chart of 1u flatbet...

1] The line will move up higher and higher, before changing trend.

2] The line will move down lower and lower, before changing trend.

3] The line will move up and down, zig zag along the zero value , before changing trend.

Thus we may profit, or lose if we just bet according to where the line move.

for example,
follow the trend, of line, of flatbet BLACK only CHART.

1]If the line move upward, keep betting BLACK, till the line move down, over a predetermined value.

2]If the line move downward,  lower to the negative side, Bet RED, till the line move up over a predetermined value.

3]If the line keep moving up and below zero value, then ...

a)keep cut losses and bet accordingly, Red, or Black.

or...

b) stop bet, till the line move clearly toward a positive or negative side.

thus the cut-losses will keep accumulating till a huge movement occurred.

Say, if u have a strategy, when bet flat, that always have those two result,

1]Win huge... half of the time.
2]Lose huge...half of the time.
seldom win or lose little, albeit the pesky green.

Then 'follow the trend' with your strategy will profit. imho.
Thanks.

 

weird

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Re: Trend Following The Wheel, Bet Flatbet.
« Reply #3 on: July 03, 2015, 07:10:59 AM »
If we look at the chart [by Sputnik],

If we regarded the chart as any typical flatbet even-chance chart,
which RTM after a long term spins.

 If we bet , by following the line, flatbet, and cut loss , when the line move to over or below ZERO value, and take profit when the line move over a predetermined value, we may profit. imho.

Thanks.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Trend Following The Wheel, Bet Flatbet.
« Reply #4 on: July 03, 2015, 07:45:33 AM »
Weird I have made a long study of the random rows.In the different topics you can find my diagrams. The EC random row is most suitable to understand the features of such a sequence.By study these trends and features I have developed the long run and short run theory.
Long and short run are different for the chances.
With the knowledge of the sequence features it is possible to design several beautiful and practical methods.

Systems. strategies and betting patterns are not the same.

My analyse excel program is for every member free.
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Trend Following The Wheel, Bet Flatbet.
« Reply #5 on: July 03, 2015, 08:27:46 AM »
I define trends in two categories: the first is the one which has smaller difference but greater duration (choppy) and the second category is more intense deviation in shorter time (long streaks/series).
It's very important to understand that the sequence doesn't matter but only the total amount of positive and negative results since we flat bet on the whole duration.
The most important is to establish start and finish points.

By the way, one day before I have post my topic about flat bets, strangely I notice on this topic which arrived with just 1 day difference more activity than mine.
 

december

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Re: Trend Following The Wheel, Bet Flatbet.
« Reply #6 on: July 03, 2015, 08:41:20 AM »
It's weird...
 

Harryj

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Re: Trend Following The Wheel, Bet Flatbet.
« Reply #7 on: July 03, 2015, 07:23:55 PM »
   Very good December!
   
     I am not at all sure whether trends and flow are the same. Some time ago I used a strategy in which I decided at EACH bet whether the wheel was repeating or chopping. The progression I used only won on the first bet. The balance of 7 steps either broke even or lost(overinsured). It showed a profit so I couldn't have been far wrong. My only assistance was the 3 or 4 bets previous.

    Chew on that if you think past numbers can be of no help.

       Harry
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Trend Following The Wheel, Bet Flatbet.
« Reply #8 on: July 03, 2015, 07:48:10 PM »
Quote
Chew on that if you think past numbers can be of no help. 

That was a good one!:-D HAHAHA
 

scepticus

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Re: Trend Following The Wheel, Bet Flatbet.
« Reply #9 on: July 04, 2015, 05:01:54 AM »
Thanks for introducing " Trends " ,  Weird .
It should generate some discussion without the usual negativity. Well, hopefully anyway
It seems that I think a bit differently from most on the forum. ( LOL )
So here is my view of short term trending.
Note last three spins.
If three the same - do not bet the next three but NOTE those three.

If Two and Three are both different from the first -or three is different from the first two then, on the next three spins

Don't bet the FIRST but bet the SECOND to be DIFFERENT  from the first and the THIRD to be the SAME as the FIRST.    PARLAY second and third .

Also bet the reverse.
An illustration:

If RRB or RBB -then don't bet the first of the next three.
If Black then parlay the next two as RB and if Red - BR.

If RBR or BRB - don't bet the first of the next three
If Black then parlay the next two as RR and if red - BB.

Keep changing as the threesomes change.If the next three are the same -bet as last time .
( note. I think all  1 / 1 chances  should be parlayed.  )
 and No. I haven't tested it yet !
« Last Edit: July 04, 2015, 05:05:28 AM by scepticus »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Trend Following The Wheel, Bet Flatbet.
« Reply #10 on: July 04, 2015, 12:32:40 PM »
Thanks for introducing " Trends " ,  Weird .
It should generate some discussion without the usual negativity. Well, hopefully anyway
It seems that I think a bit differently from most on the forum. ( LOL )
So here is my view of short term trending.
Note last three spins.
If three the same - do not bet the next three but NOTE those three.

If Two and Three are both different from the first -or three is different from the first two then, on the next three spins

Don't bet the FIRST but bet the SECOND to be DIFFERENT  from the first and the THIRD to be the SAME as the FIRST.    PARLAY second and third .

Also bet the reverse.
An illustration:

If RRB or RBB -then don't bet the first of the next three.
If Black then parlay the next two as RB and if Red - BR.

If RBR or BRB - don't bet the first of the next three
If Black then parlay the next two as RR and if red - BB.

Keep changing as the threesomes change.If the next three are the same -bet as last time .
( note. I think all  1 / 1 chances  should be parlayed.  )
 and No. I haven't tested it yet !

This way you care about in what turn the results are going to occur, not about what is happening the most (their quantity).
So if a specific sequence of an EC has 1 out of 8 probability, its respective payout is always proportionally, you could never gain edge by betting this way, either with positive and/or negative progressions.

 

scepticus

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Re: Trend Following The Wheel, Bet Flatbet.
« Reply #11 on: July 04, 2015, 03:51:39 PM »
No it doesn't Blue Angel. I did not claim that it did. What I do claim is that  ,ignoring the zero,  it breaks even so depends on randomness to beat the zero. And the zero doesn't affect the virtual bet does it ?
I think there is too much  weight given to the zero - it is only one of 37 numbers. The only time it matters is when we are betting the even chances . The uncertainty of future spins  is the real problem and NO ONE can foretell that. We only guess what to bet and what I have given is that .No collating long lists of numbers  - no messing about tracking a wheel  just a guess -based on the arithmetic and the FACT that threesomes seldom  follow each other. 
 Incidentally, regarding the zeros. On my last visit to the casino there were 8 zeros in 74 spins . I lost only 4 of them and finished  breaking - even . I was £ 10 ahead AFTER the 8 zeros but continued  and lost the £10.
I took a £ 50 bank for that evening . Next time I shall take a £100  and EXPECT to win.
Have you understood my Double Dozen idea yet  ?
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Trend Following The Wheel, Bet Flatbet.
« Reply #12 on: July 04, 2015, 04:24:53 PM »
No it doesn't Blue Angel. I did not claim that it did. What I do claim is that  ,ignoring the zero,  it breaks even so depends on randomness to beat the zero. And the zero doesn't affect the virtual bet does it ?
I think there is too much  weight given to the zero - it is only one of 37 numbers. The only time it matters is when we are betting the even chances . The uncertainty of future spins  is the real problem and NO ONE can foretell that. We only guess what to bet and what I have given is that .No collating long lists of numbers  - no messing about tracking a wheel  just a guess -based on the arithmetic and the FACT that threesomes seldom  follow each other. 
 Incidentally, regarding the zeros. On my last visit to the casino there were 8 zeros in 74 spins . I lost only 4 of them and finished  breaking - even . I was £ 10 ahead AFTER the 8 zeros but continued  and lost the £10.
I took a £ 50 bank for that evening . Next time I shall take a £100  and EXPECT to win.
Have you understood my Double Dozen idea yet  ?

Well that's how you prefer to play, it doesn't mean that this should be a guide for everyone, right?
No, I haven't, nor I do care to understand it.
 

scepticus

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Re: Trend Following The Wheel, Bet Flatbet.
« Reply #13 on: July 04, 2015, 09:25:10 PM »
You misunderstand BA. I do not bet that way. I was merely responding to Weirds' post. i am not surprised that you have no interest in my  nine - block. As I said before most of us are quite happy with our own method . So long as we win why should we change ?
 

random

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Re: Trend Following The Wheel, Bet Flatbet.
« Reply #14 on: July 05, 2015, 09:47:44 AM »
...

Since we cannot PREDICT future deviation and RTM...

\
I believe we can predict RTM.
I already showed algorithm to do it in this forum, with examples.