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Author Topic: Burn the House to the ground by betting flat stakes!  (Read 2239 times)

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BlueAngel

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Burn the House to the ground by betting flat stakes!
« on: July 02, 2015, 04:29:47 PM »


ECs,Dozens,Lines,Columns...etc
All of them are subject to HE, if what probability indicates would happen every time,then we would lose exactly the amount which equals the HE for ER (2.7%) Or not...because if we would know that after ever RED for example is the turn for BLACK,we would bet accordingly.
Of course this is far from the truth, that's why variance is a coin with 2 sides, could make you win if you go with the flow, or could make you lose if you naively believe that the outcomes must balance during your playtime!
There are always smaller or bigger deviations from what probability indicates, but there are always!
The only practical value of probability is to determine the degree of deviation.
If you think a strategy which applies regression towards the mean as the best you can do,then better go flip burgers at MacDonalds!
Who knows how long one could wait in order for an extreme deviation to occur and after this to bet very few bets while expecting the deviation to be decreased in the following spins.
Till a rare event happens (great deviation), a lot of smaller ones take place and if you back them, then the big one would be the cherry top!
Many bet against the deviation (futile), while some others bet with the deviation but use progressions which are making them lose in the end.
When you go with the flow,you don't have to raise your bets at all because you are backing the side which is appearing most any given moment.
By applying a positive progression would make the loses cost more money than the wins, we don't have to care about the sequence of the outcomes, but only for the total amount,their quantity.
Why are you trying to tame the waves when you can ride them?!


 

BlueAngel

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Re: Burn the House to the ground by betting flat stakes!
« Reply #1 on: July 02, 2015, 05:11:58 PM »
There are ways to expose accurately this phenomenon and I'm not talking about guesswork!
Do you expect me to tell you every single detail about how you could do it?
Don't tell me that such unbalances (smaller or greater) are not on daily schedule!
Every single time you are playing roulette you should have noticed such unequal distributions.
But what is the source which generates such phenomenon?
You will be surprise by how simple is the explanation!
Just try to imagine that you should carry one by one 37 eggs inside a small storage room.
The first eggs laid down without any difficulty, but the more eggs you are laying down, the less space you have to step and place the new eggs on the floor.
Eventually you are going to step a few eggs on the process and you will find that you left with 2/3 of what you had.
It doesn't have to do with flawed wheels, the universal bias is called LAW OF THE THIRD!
This is the beating heart of the game!
 

weird

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Re: Burn the House to the ground by betting flat stakes!
« Reply #2 on: July 03, 2015, 02:46:52 AM »
Hi Gentlemen,

BlueAngel,
If we flatbet one dollar, bet EC , or whatever,
and then the win loss result make into a chart,
we may see the dollar line moving ..

1] zig-zag along the 'zero' chart line.

2]zigzag higher, and higher, to the north positive territory.

3]zigzag lower, and lower, to the south negative territory.

4]moving in huge zig zag, from south to north, and back to south, and alternating...

Thus using the LINE as a "Follow the trend", we could risk the deviation, by following the advantage side, hoping the initial losses will be offset by "huge deviation", that we hope to happen.
It just like betting the futures market, where we long and short the price , by following the trend.

When the line move into northern side , we bet the northern side will higher,
cut loss when it move lower into southern side, and bet the line will move lower and lower into the southern side.

We lose HUGE when the line keep zig zagging up and down the zero line, where the accumulated "cut losses", become too large, and unable to offset by any winning of deviation, that may followed.
Thanks.

 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Burn the House to the ground by betting flat stakes!
« Reply #3 on: July 03, 2015, 07:54:52 AM »
You can only make a consecutive profit with the hit and run method

The result of any system is not predictable. Small samples will always result in a winn or a lost. The long run samples will result in a lost of about 2.%. See what BA writes.
 

Harryj

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Re: Burn the House to the ground by betting flat stakes!
« Reply #4 on: July 03, 2015, 06:40:14 PM »
  The important point is that when we see a deviation we have no idea whether it is atrue deviation or a regression from a previous deviation.
       Deviations alone are not a good betting indicator. As BA said the important factors in the short term game are the rule of thirds and the flow. Which is the most important at that moment is a matter of experience based on empirical research. THAT DOES NOT MAN THAT WE ARE USING PREVIOUS NUMBERS IN THE WAY INDICATED BY THOSE WHO CONDEMN SYSTEM PLAY.

       Harry
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Burn the House to the ground by betting flat stakes!
« Reply #5 on: July 03, 2015, 07:11:06 PM »
Quote
The important point is that when we see a deviation we have no idea whether it is a true deviation or a regression from a previous deviation. 

In order to separate the degree of deviation and furthermore determine if it is regression you have to establish some fixed spin intervals.
Within those you compare the decrease and/or increase of any given bet selection.
It's chaotic to see an endless list of results, but if you divide the same list in fragments you would understand clearer what's going on.
Like I said on another post, I divide deviations in 2 categories, the first is the one which is less intense but last longer, therefore more stable, this kind of deviations is what we call "choppy table".
The second category is the more intense deviations in shorter time, which being expressed by long series/streaks.
An example of the first category is when I've seen a certain EC being ahead for more than 250 spins, stable ahead through the whole duration.
The second case is when you see a streak of 8 black for example and then gradually being decreased towards the opposite side.
Before such streaks there ARE indicators for showing that it is going to happen, I've observed too many times that before a streak occurs there are in general more decisions for the side which will have the winning streak and after the end of the streak there are approximately the same amount of decisions for the ahead side till gradually this lead fades away and turns to the other side.
Try to recreate a chart in your mind with the situation I've just described, it's like a wave, a curve which is top point is on its middle.
The start and end points within certain amount of spins is essential for such trend strategy.
One last thing, who said that this applies only on EC's...?!
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Burn the House to the ground by betting flat stakes!
« Reply #6 on: July 04, 2015, 09:37:10 AM »
In general the features of all random rows of the differenchances are equal.
The random row of the EC is most suitable to study small and large samples.