Author Topic: Sixgun .44  (Read 3227 times)

Harryj

  • Veteran Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 359
  • Thanked: 164 times
  • Gender: Male
Sixgun .44
« on: June 29, 2015, 05:31:34 PM »
    This system was born out of an earlier idea, and was the result of correspondence between myself, Palestis and chris333m.

    The basic plan is to track 4 unique DS in a row. eg. DS 1(1-6), DS 3(13-18), DS 5(25-30), DS 2(7-12).
    Tis is the trigger now bet The first of the 4, DS 1 and the two missing DS 4 and 6. For 2 spins. If both fail a third bet can be made on the last 3 of the 4 origional DS. ie. DS 3,5,2.
    As this is an EC bet you can use any progression that you would normally use but only make a maximum of 3 steps. If one of the three bets wins the series is ended and a new  target sought. If all 3 lose the series is ended and a new target sought,which is attacked at a higher level.  EG.......

  Number. DS. Bet Result.

  36         6   NB   
  22         4   NB
  13         3   NB
   7          2  We now have a trigger 4 Unique DS
  Bet DS 6, 1, 5.
   8          2  loss
  19         4  L  we have now lost twice switch to last 3
  Bet DS 4, 3, 2.
  21       4 W track a new set of 4 unique DS
  29       5  NB
  12       2  NB
  17       3  NB
   5        1 NB trigger
  12       2 L
  27       5 W EOS
 18        3 NB
  4         1 NB
 13        3 NB
  7         2 NB
 32        6  Trigger
  Bet DS 1, 4, 5,
 26        5 W

  With this basic format we each played a slightly different way. Chris played as shown.
 I backcounted from the win But only made 2 bets on each series.
 Palestis Made virtual bets on the first 2 numbers after the trigger and then bet twice on the last 3.

  While the basic idea follows the rule of thirds, empirical research showed that flow was slightly more powerful. Having produced 4 unique DS that trend tended to continue. The first bet is strongly in favour of flow. The second is pretty much 50/50, you could bet last 3. The third bet definately favours the last 3

    The return is good on this bet and the bankroll need not be large.

       Harry   


 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3318
  • Thanked: 979 times
Re: Sixgun .44
« Reply #1 on: June 29, 2015, 05:56:07 PM »


I can program this and output actual odds for each of the 3 bets.  We are obviously looking for as much improvement over 3:6 as we can get.
« Last Edit: June 29, 2015, 06:04:50 PM by Reyth »
 

BlueAngel

  • I always express my opinion
  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1491
  • Thanked: 207 times
  • Gender: Male
  • Do you want truth? You cannot handle the truth!
Re: Sixgun .44
« Reply #2 on: June 29, 2015, 06:29:39 PM »
Very interesting Harry,have you tried the variation to bet once or twice or thrice the last unique/different lines?
For example,let's the last 3 lines are: second (7/12), fourth (19/24),sixth (31/36) you could bet the last 3 when they are different,in other words you are expecting a repeat from one of these three different.
Optionally you might add up to 2 bets,let's say you have bet the last three different and a fourth different came,now you could bet the last 4 different lines with 2 units on each one of them.
If you win on the first bet,you would win 3 units,if you win on the second bet,you would win 1 unit.
If you lose both of your bets,you may want to make one step further by betting 12 units on each of the last five different lines for a total of 60 units bet.
If you win on the third bet,you would recoup the previous 2 lost bets and add 1 unit to your bankroll.
If you take all 3 steps,you would risk 71 units and you could win 3 (first bet) or 1 unit (second or third bet)
Another way to play this is not to bet 3 consecutive bets but to bet only when 3 different and if you lose,next time with three different you could double from 3 units to 6 units in order to recover the previous trigger.
I have experiment enough with and without money about these variations and I have found that three different lines (18 numbers) are NOT repeating as much as they should,but if you place your trigger to the last 4 different lines you should expect much more wins.
The problem is that by betting 4 lines instead of 3,you are risking 4 in order to win 2,better probability but worst payout.
If you place the trigger on last 3 different lines it's perhaps a bit early,if you place the trigger on the last 5 different it would probably a bit late,thus I strongly believe the trigger should be placed on the last 4 different lines without a repeat.
If we look on this under the law of the third perspective,the average number of repeats within 6 spins on the lines is 2, 2 repeats multiplied by 2 lines of six numbers = 12 numbers (one third) as repeaters and 4 different lines of six numbers = 24 numbers (two thirds)
This is the average,but small deviations might happen from time to time,for example to see 3 repeats and 3 different or 1 repeat and 5 different lines within the last 6 spins.
What do you think Harry?
Which variation do you like more from those I've described?
 

BlueAngel

  • I always express my opinion
  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1491
  • Thanked: 207 times
  • Gender: Male
  • Do you want truth? You cannot handle the truth!
Re: Sixgun .44
« Reply #3 on: June 29, 2015, 06:42:50 PM »
I have tried to bet the 3 consecutive bets for 3 different,then 4 different and 5 different lines and I've won more than 71 units before I fall in 5 different lines and a zero.
Therefore my profits were dramatically depleted but I've remained ahead nontheless.
However,such drawbacks could be also harmful for our psychology,I think a trigger on the last 4 different lines with something like a grand martingale would be the best,what do you think?
Jim told me also a very interesting variation,he said to track down approximately 24 spins and bet the top 3 lines,he said that perhaps 1 or 2 may turn to cold eventually,but NEVER all together!
Therefore a progression could be applied on constant basis for the top 3 lines,no recharting needed,only to keep your data up to date for every 6 line.
My variations and Palestis (top 3) are much more preferable for me rather than backing cold lines.
 

Harryj

  • Veteran Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 359
  • Thanked: 164 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Sixgun .44
« Reply #4 on: June 30, 2015, 02:44:42 PM »
   Hi Reyth,
             It would be great if you coulld program this. My testing has all been done with paper and pen the old way. As you can see from BA's post this leads to a number of possible variations. all of which seem to give a positive result.

   Hi BA,
          I have tested and played all those variations. Like you I found trying to carry the bet to 5 was positive but a bit frightening when you lost a couple of times close together.

       I personally like to bet on 3 UDS twice.It seems to give a slightly better payback than switching to .44 after the first spin produces the 4th UDS. I do not like betting more than 18 numbers at a time. Admitted the hit rate is good, but it tends to take too long to recover after a series of losses. I have played the 3 to 4 repeat variation. it can rack up some nice wins, but a bad session can be costly. Betting furthest back and missing twois safer and in the long run more profitable

      Betting 3 times for a repeat after 3 UDS works well, but I prefer to use the chips in a 'trigger' progression( sequential ). It is a much safer way to go. My basic philosophy is safety first. I like to work from small daily bankrolls And am always ready to run if the table doesn't co-operate. I don't believe in giving the casino the chance to  take a big bite out of my capital.  All the strategies I use are based on a small bankroll and very short progressions, depending on the odds.

      I never bet a grand martingale. If I must use a longer progression I use I use insurance bets to reduce the stake rise. For some years I used a 7 step over-insured martingale based on the Fibonnacci sequence. Only the first bet won the other 6 broke even or lost. Surprisingly it was profitable. I played a 3 DS that had slept for 3 or 4 spins. It required all three to sleep for 11 spins or more to defeat me. Even when things went bad I got most of my stake back.

     I don't know if anyone else has noticed this, but the modern game seems to favour repeats and 'hot' lines. Jim's idea with your variation sounds like a good idea. Certainly worth some testing.

           Harry
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3318
  • Thanked: 979 times
Re: Sixgun .44
« Reply #5 on: June 30, 2015, 02:53:28 PM »
   Hi Reyth,
             It would be great if you coulld program this. My testing has all been done with paper and pen the old way. As you can see from BA's post this leads to a number of possible variations. all of which seem to give a positive result.

Ok, this is queued.  Have at least one other project I am working on atm. ; )
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3318
  • Thanked: 979 times
Re: Sixgun .44
« Reply #6 on: July 08, 2015, 02:02:09 AM »
DS1 = 1-6
DS2 = 7-12
DS3 =13-18
DS4 =19-24
DS5 =25-30
DS6 =31-36

1) Track the last 4 spins until there are no duplicates.
2) Bet the oldest appearing DS & the two non-appearing DS for 2 spins
   a) Track each of these bets for % chance to hit
3) Bet the last 3 of the original appearing DS
   b) Track this bet for % chance to hit

The first two bets is obviously targeting the 2 double streets that have slept for 4 turns in a row along with a double street that has slept for 3 turns and is hoping one of them hits on spin 5 or spin 6.  This obviously makes sense as the LotT won't likely be sleeping all 18 numbers.

The 3rd bet I am having trouble understanding:

1 2 3 4 ====> BET 1,5,6

MISS (234)
MISS (234)

And so after these 3 have hit anywhere from 2-5 times in a row, the 3rd bet targets them?? 

I would hands down prefer a bet on DS 156 again to that bet.

In fact, I would prefer the Palestis method of only betting that 3rd bet except I will start progressing on DS 156 as they are quite hot having slept now for at least 6 spins; Harry's 11 spins is easily surpassable from this point.

 
« Last Edit: July 08, 2015, 02:41:50 AM by Reyth »
 

Harryj

  • Veteran Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 359
  • Thanked: 164 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Sixgun .44
« Reply #7 on: July 09, 2015, 04:43:33 PM »
DS1 = 1-6
DS2 = 7-12
DS3 =13-18
DS4 =19-24
DS5 =25-30
DS6 =31-36

1) Track the last 4 spins until there are no duplicates.
2) Bet the oldest appearing DS & the two non-appearing DS for 2 spins
   a) Track each of these bets for % chance to hit
3) Bet the last 3 of the original appearing DS
   b) Track this bet for % chance to hit

The first two bets is obviously targeting the 2 double streets that have slept for 4 turns in a row along with a double street that has slept for 3 turns and is hoping one of them hits on spin 5 or spin 6.  This obviously makes sense as the LotT won't likely be sleeping all 18 numbers.

The 3rd bet I am having trouble understanding:

1 2 3 4 ====> BET 1,5,6

MISS (234)
MISS (234)

And so after these 3 have hit anywhere from 2-5 times in a row, the 3rd bet targets them?? 

I would hands down prefer a bet on DS 156 again to that bet.

In fact, I would prefer the Palestis method of only betting that 3rd bet except I will start progressing on DS 156 as they are quite hot having slept now for at least 6 spins; Harry's 11 spins is easily surpassable from this point.

      My thoughts on this were very much the same as yours. Empirical research showed that the 1st bet was very strong. the 2nd bet was slightly better than even. Giving a total success rate for the 2 bets of around 90 % for 1.5.6. My choice was again 1.5.6 for the 3rd bet, but Jim and Chris both felt 2.3.4. was better. Empirically there wasn't much in it. So I decided to drop the 3rd bet and just bet the 1st two.1.5.6  each time.
       I then used a "trigger' (sequential ) progression on the next target. Stringing a series of 90% chances together. Similar to the trick that Belgian used with the Johnson Labby.

                  Regards,
                              Harry
« Last Edit: July 09, 2015, 04:54:54 PM by Reyth »
 

scepticus

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1805
  • Thanked: 379 times
Re: Sixgun .44
« Reply #8 on: July 11, 2015, 03:27:29 PM »
Decisions - Decisions - Decisions ! What to do  ?
A suggestion - just a suggestion !  Why not use my Dice Theory  -  a 5 /1 shot. ? It does NOT compare Craps with Roulette it only compares Maths  with Maths   and Maths is promiscuous . The only difference is the zero.
Whatever the last number was deduct it from 7 and bet that DS.
e.g. Should 8  be the last number . This is in DS 2- Deduct 2 from 7 and 5 is the indicated DS to bet on the next spin .The DS changes as the last number changes.
 Take Palestis ' idea -  wait for 5 losses in a row and start betting . If one of your first five bets win  at level stakes you win . If not bet your  ( beliefs  ! ) progressions.
I haven't tested it as I don't do progressions.  Food for thought  ?
 

palestis

  • Veteran Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 606
  • Thanked: 401 times
Re: Sixgun .44
« Reply #9 on: July 11, 2015, 05:00:17 PM »
This system hasn't lost yet every time I played it.
I wait for 4 unique DS's and then bet on the oldest (furthest back) of the four, plus the 2 missing. If that bet fails then I just stick with the most recent three, one of them to repeat.
However since I play the first 2 bets as virtual (in fact to lose), in effect I bet  the most recent 3.
It might take some but so far it hasn't lost.
'But the biggest problem is not the time I wait. It is the fact that while waiting for my trigger, and the 2 virtual losses, some other player enters the game with CASH CHIPS, and therefore I am not allowed to bet with cash chips inside. (DS's are inside bets). So my efforts are gone wasted. And that scenario repeats very frequently. Getting color chips is not an option, because again you are not allowed to hold color chips and skip too  many spins without betting. Then return them for exchange and go to another roulette.
This system is best to be  played with cash chips (hit and run).
So math and probability is not my problem. Casino rules is my problem.
And  the next cash chip denomination from $5 jumps to $25. There are no $10's
You can use 2 $5's but it still interferes with the other players using $5's.
But playing with $25 chips is not for the average player. You need at least $10,000 for bank roll to execute this system stress free. No matter how successful a system is, you always have to think of the worst. And a weak bank roll can prevent you from playing a system the way is designed to be played.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2015, 05:02:03 PM by palestis »
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3318
  • Thanked: 979 times
Re: Sixgun .44
« Reply #10 on: July 11, 2015, 05:31:37 PM »
So if you don't have this B&M problem, you are saying the bankroll required is 10000/25=400 units?
 

palestis

  • Veteran Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 606
  • Thanked: 401 times
Re: Sixgun .44
« Reply #11 on: July 12, 2015, 02:41:51 AM »
So if you don't have this B&M problem, you are saying the bankroll required is 10000/25=400 units?
Yes $10,000 sounds like a very strong bank roll for this system. Considering 3 DS's are EC bets, for 3 bets you will bet $75, $150, $300. Total risk $525.
If your bankroll is $1000, and you run into a bad moment on your first trigger, over half the bank roll is gone.
How do you proceed from there? Not a nice feeling knowing that you only have one more chance.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2015, 01:58:27 AM by palestis »
 

Harryj

  • Veteran Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 359
  • Thanked: 164 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Sixgun .44
« Reply #12 on: July 12, 2015, 03:45:49 PM »
  It is important to remember that when you use double streets as dozens or ECs the bet has to be split into 2 or 3. If the minimum bet is the minimum chip allowed you are automatically forced toincrease the basic bet in your progression.

     On the plus side using DS gives you much more choice. With  normal ECs you have 6 possibilities and only 3 pairs. Using DS you have 20 possibilities and 10 pairs.

   When casino action against the outside numbers forced me to move my bets inside, I discovered how versitile  betting DS as ECs or dozens is. I will never go back to betting outside even if there was no penalty.

                Harry