Author Topic: My Dream Chaser  (Read 6301 times)

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3346
  • Thanked: 1000 times
My Dream Chaser
« on: June 29, 2015, 04:42:48 PM »



This is my personal modification of a strategy called "Chasing The Dream".

Place 1 unit on a straight up number <=== YOUR DREAM
Place 3 units on either high or low (the one not occupied)
Place 1 unit on an unoccupied double street

Win: +1,+31
Lose: -5

Chance to win: .6756756756756757

Chances for only 2 losses in a row: .7808531214965319

The goal is to win while waiting for your "dream" to hit. 

The raising schedule is a 2 loss in a row trigger followed by a single bet to par (see formula below), raising only the outside bets.  If it misses go back to the base bet and await another trigger.

ADDITIONAL TRIGGER:  A loss immediately following a trigger miss.  The odds here are significantly improved.

When your dream hits, reconfigure your bets based on a new one. : D

The weakness to this trigger system is "chop"; i.e. WLWLWL etc.  A new trigger needs to be created that will count the number of chops; i.e. a chop trigger.  It should be quite liberal attempting to gain the highest chance of success possible. 

Initial testing indicates that a second chop in a row is a good trigger; i.e. WLWL <===  the odds are significantly in favor of W here (as is LLWL)

What I am enjoying about this system is how I am so focused on triggers and raise amounts, I totally forget about my dream and when it hits its like a surprise gift! : D

In general, I have found systems that employ "misdirection" to be very powerful, especially if the misdirection is a reliable way to generate profit and the long-term profit target is substantial.

Betting Formula

1) Place (debt/2)+1 units on DS
2) Place (debt*1.5)+3 units on H/L

^^^ This removes quite the headache in trying to figure out what to raise.

Debt Management Formula

Let's say you want to limit your bets to a maximum of 10% of your bankroll.  Do the following:

D/S: (Bankroll*.025)
H/L: (D/S)*3

You can make the green-bolded any amount you want but .25 of that amount must go to the DS; in this case 1/10 of the bankroll is the base amount.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHRNSeuvzlM

"You've got to lose to know how to win."

"Dream until your dreams come true."
« Last Edit: July 02, 2015, 11:55:11 PM by Reyth »


 

kav

  • www.Roulette30.com
  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1718
  • Thanked: 724 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: My Dream Chaser
« Reply #1 on: June 29, 2015, 06:52:51 PM »
Nice title and image
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3346
  • Thanked: 1000 times
Re: My Dream Chaser
« Reply #2 on: June 29, 2015, 06:58:51 PM »
Thanks!  The image is from NASA and I think maybe that's the name of their ship; Dream Chaser. : D

http://www.space.com/21324-nasa-administrator-flies-dream-chaser-simulator-video.html

I was inspired and encouraged to explore this based on the work Jesper has done in this thread:

http://rouletteforum.roulette30.com/index.php/topic,397.msg4327.html#msg4327
« Last Edit: July 02, 2015, 07:12:31 PM by Reyth »
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3346
  • Thanked: 1000 times
Re: My Dream Chaser
« Reply #3 on: June 30, 2015, 02:26:30 AM »
Here is a video demonstrating this system:

http://youtu.be/xdZRieIFi4Y

LOL.  I figured out where the extra money was coming from.  I am putting a 1:1 ratio of my debt on the DS but the DS pays 5:1.  So when the DS hits I get paid 5x the amount I was aiming for.

This is so complicated I actually have to use algebra to solve it (math is not my strong suit).  The debt is 1.20 and is D.  H/L = X, DS=Y.  Y must equal 1/3rd X.  X must equal D+Y.

D=1.20
X=(D+Y)
Y=(X*1/3)

Code: [Select]
x=y+1.2;y=(
13)(x)
Step: Solve x=y+1.2 for x:
Step: Substitute (y+1.2) for x in y=13x:
y=13x
y=13(y+1.2)
y=13y+0.4(Simplify both sides of the equation)
y+?13y=13y+0.4+?13y(Add (-1)/3y to both sides)
23y=0.4
23y23=0.423(Divide both sides by 2/3)
y=0.6
Step: Substitute (0.6) for y in x=y+1.2:
x=y+1.2
x=0.6+1.2
x=1.8(Simplify both sides of the equation)

Answer:
x=1.8 and y=0.6

I mean WTHECK am I a math professor!?

Let's see if I can disentangle this...

Ok I think (2/3)Y=(1/3)D is the solver part.

In this case DS=debt/2, H/L=debt*1.5

Here is hoping this works across the board. oh please please.... : ' (

Ok let's try another common amount, .90

DS=.45
H/L=1.35
 
IT WORKS!


« Last Edit: June 30, 2015, 08:57:28 PM by Reyth »
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3346
  • Thanked: 1000 times
Re: My Dream Chaser
« Reply #4 on: June 30, 2015, 03:54:43 PM »
This system appears to be working.  So far 2000 units is holding for the bankroll (I think 1000 will hold).  I am in the process of putting this into a simulator.

Question:  Is there a way to also raise with the inside bet that would create a larger profit ratio than the minimal method that is currently in place?  Or am I just spinning my wheels trying?

UPDATE: 1000 units has held up but ONLY because of skillful reduction of the bet amount to 10% of the bankroll at the proper times.  This is only rarely necessary but the word "necessary" does apply.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2015, 08:00:14 PM by Reyth »
 

BlueAngel

  • I always express my opinion
  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1539
  • Thanked: 214 times
  • Gender: Male
  • Do you want truth? You cannot handle the truth!
Re: My Dream Chaser
« Reply #5 on: June 30, 2015, 04:01:15 PM »
My suggestion is to calculate the progression individually and as a group of bets.
For example you start betting and you consider those 3 bets as 1,if at a certain point you haven't reached an overall profit,from that point and forth, you start counting each bet independently and you continue to do so (every bet a separate progression) till you reach an overall profit.
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3346
  • Thanked: 1000 times
Re: My Dream Chaser
« Reply #6 on: June 30, 2015, 04:08:48 PM »
Ok thanks for this.

One problem is that this isn't a rigid progression but a progression based on loss at the time of the raise.  Also raises are never made back to back (this might be a moot point though).

My thoughts are that I might be losing money (or at least significantly increasing my risk/bankroll req) trying to create more of a profit from the inside bet because all other bets must be raised to accomodate this and will have a cumulative effect over every spin.

I think the potential definitely exists to increase the profit ratio but this doesn't seem at all easy for me to figure out.
« Last Edit: June 30, 2015, 04:10:56 PM by Reyth »
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3346
  • Thanked: 1000 times
Re: My Dream Chaser
« Reply #7 on: June 30, 2015, 10:04:36 PM »
Here is a very instructive video series that I made to force play at 1000 units.  It allows me to practice my debt management skills which are essential for survival in roulette.

http://youtu.be/6jvztnE0REU
http://youtu.be/A3pUIrlc83s

This two part series demonstrates the power of the bank balance; the more you have the less you are affected by variance because of your ability to quickly recover losses.
« Last Edit: June 30, 2015, 10:53:07 PM by Reyth »
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3346
  • Thanked: 1000 times
Re: My Dream Chaser
« Reply #8 on: July 02, 2015, 09:18:17 PM »
Question: What is the maximum number of loss spins that can be expected to occur using this system?

I will need to answer this question by putting this into a simulator and counting the max loss.  The reason why this question is relevant is because there are 24 other numbers that are covered with each spin which should significantly reduce the number from the normally expected 455 spins. 

This is very useful information that can provide insight into raising strategies for the "dream", such as this:

http://rouletteforum.roulette30.com/index.php/topic,422.msg4694.html#msg4694



The normal loss distribution (max loss) for 1 station is 455 spins.  Here we see that the dream system buffers that down to only 172.

Code: [Select]
(1)0.07681400499032998
(2)0.1473174471155291
(3)0.2139253254236269
(4)0.273866904492299
(5)0.3297350515567224
(6)0.381487178459411
(7)0.4293387311735292
[8]0.4728813644243584

(9)0.5133300932931167
(10)0.5507149800086178
(11)0.5852339342438848

(12)0.6172226508873368
(13)0.646826430711573
(14)0.674160512260379
(15)0.699044522160873

(16)0.7221673864900344
(17)0.7434238874470154
(18)0.7630946058340766
(19)0.7814551120820098
(20)0.7983951780184983

(21)0.8138471636287114
(22)0.8282945697594019
(23)0.8415845800807671
(24)0.8534992434339081
(25)0.864742517010211
(26)0.8751691000370766
(27)0.8846061346988264

Code: [Select]
1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1,
2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4,
4, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 8, 8, 8, 8, 9, 9, 9, 9, 10, 10, 10, 10, 11, 11,
11, 12, 12, 12, 13, 13, 13, 14, 14, 15, 15, 15, 16, 16, 17, 17, 18, 18, 19, 19, 20, 20, 21, 22, 22,
23, 24, 24, 25, 26, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 43, 44, 45,
46, 48, 49, 50, 52, 53, 55, 56, 58, 60, 61, 63, 65, 67, 69, 71

Bet 1 on 1 spots for 35 spins. Minimum Profit: 1
Bet 2 on 1 spots for 18 spins. Minimum Profit: 1
Bet 3 on 1 spots for 12 spins. Minimum Profit: 1
Bet 4 on 1 spots for 9 spins. Minimum Profit: 1
Bet 5 on 1 spots for 7 spins. Minimum Profit: 2
Bet 6 on 1 spots for 6 spins. Minimum Profit: 2
Bet 7 on 1 spots for 5 spins. Minimum Profit: 3
Bet 8 on 1 spots for 4 spins. Minimum Profit: 7
Bet 9 on 1 spots for 4 spins. Minimum Profit: 7
Bet 10 on 1 spots for 4 spins. Minimum Profit: 3
Bet 11 on 1 spots for 3 spins. Minimum Profit: 6
Bet 12 on 1 spots for 3 spins. Minimum Profit: 6
Bet 13 on 1 spots for 3 spins. Minimum Profit: 3
Bet 14 on 1 spots for 2 spins. Minimum Profit: 11
Follow the rest spin for spin.

Man this is so close to being worked out here.  Ok I need to fix the .xls progression so that it is 1:1 against the actual progression instead of just the progression amounts...

Ewww.  The progression pretty much maxed out at 37 spins because it would require just over 6000 units. 172-37 is 135 which is ridiculous.

Just a note that covering 31 numbers has a max VSL of 82.  Of course the progression will be parallel in expense. :s



However, THIS IS interesting!  This covers 34 numbers and either pays out 13/1 or loses 23.  The interesting part is that the max loss is only 44!



There are 12 units on H/L, 4 units on each DS & 2 units on the street.  Of course there is a unit on 0.

So:

DS: 1:3 H/L each
S: 1:6 H/L
HL: 12:1 vs. target dollar amount

Unfortunately the progression is just as ugly, barely making it out to 15 elements on 6000 units. 

However, with a 0.9189189189189189 chance to win on each spin I am trying out the following strategy:



Now this is the actual successive losses covering 34 numbers.  A 7 step progression will own this but unfortunately that is easier said than done with just the 2nd step requiring almost 7300 units.
« Last Edit: July 05, 2015, 01:13:21 AM by Reyth »
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3346
  • Thanked: 1000 times
Re: My Dream Chaser
« Reply #9 on: July 03, 2015, 05:11:01 AM »
Possible Improvement

1) Place 1 unit on a straight up number
2) Place 6 units on H/L (unoccupied)
3) Place 2 units on TWO DS each (unoccupied)

Total units: 11

Win: +1, +25
Loss: -11

Chance to win: 0.8378378378378378

1) Bet until a loss
2) Raise H/L to 39 units, DS 13 units each.  Repeat #1 when it hits.
3) Create a bank and place 77 units into it.  Go back to base units & subtract all wins from this bank until a miss.
4) Raise H/L 239 units, DS 80 units each.  Repeat #1 when it hits.
5) Create a bank and place 400 units into it.  Go back to base units & subtract all wins from this bank until a miss.
6) Raise H/L 1026 units, DS 402 units each.  Repeat #1 when it hits.

7) Create a bank and place 1830 units into it.  Go back to base units & subtract all wins from this bank until a miss.

You can break the bank up into small banks at any time to keep the bets lower.

« Last Edit: July 03, 2015, 05:40:44 AM by Reyth »
 

BlueAngel

  • I always express my opinion
  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1539
  • Thanked: 214 times
  • Gender: Male
  • Do you want truth? You cannot handle the truth!
Re: My Dream Chaser
« Reply #10 on: July 03, 2015, 09:00:37 AM »
Possible Improvement

1) Place 1 unit on a straight up number
2) Place 6 units on H/L (unoccupied)
3) Place 2 units on TWO DS each (unoccupied)

Total units: 11

Win: +1, +25
Loss: -11

Chance to win: 0.8378378378378378

1) Bet until a loss
2) Raise H/L to 39 units, DS 13 units each.  Repeat #1 when it hits.
3) Create a bank and place 77 units into it.  Go back to base units & subtract all wins from this bank until a miss.
4) Raise H/L 239 units, DS 80 units each.  Repeat #1 when it hits.
5) Create a bank and place 400 units into it.  Go back to base units & subtract all wins from this bank until a miss.
6) Raise H/L 1026 units, DS 402 units each.  Repeat #1 when it hits.

7) Create a bank and place 1830 units into it.  Go back to base units & subtract all wins from this bank until a miss.

You can break the bank up into small banks at any time to keep the bets lower.



If the probability is 83.7 % then you should expect a maximum of 16 to 17 losing bets in a row.
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3346
  • Thanked: 1000 times
Re: My Dream Chaser
« Reply #11 on: July 03, 2015, 03:19:49 PM »
This is the loss distribution for 16M spins.  It is based on the total board coverage, i.e. 31 numbers.  31 numbers has a max consecutive loss of 9, after that no losses appear.

24 numbers (2 dozen) has a max loss of 16.

I suspect you are applying a formula to estimate the max loss.  If I am unable to produce anything more than 9 consecutive losses in 3 quadrillion spins, I find that more practical.
« Last Edit: July 03, 2015, 03:24:06 PM by Reyth »
 

BlueAngel

  • I always express my opinion
  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1539
  • Thanked: 214 times
  • Gender: Male
  • Do you want truth? You cannot handle the truth!
Re: My Dream Chaser
« Reply #12 on: July 03, 2015, 05:01:53 PM »
This is the loss distribution for 16M spins.  It is based on the total board coverage, i.e. 31 numbers.  31 numbers has a max consecutive loss of 9, after that no losses appear.

24 numbers (2 dozen) has a max loss of 16.

I suspect you are applying a formula to estimate the max loss.  If I am unable to produce anything more than 9 consecutive losses in 3 quadrillion spins, I find that more practical.

For 2 dozens is 19 in a row
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3346
  • Thanked: 1000 times
Re: My Dream Chaser
« Reply #13 on: July 03, 2015, 05:28:20 PM »


Once again 16M spins on 24 numbers.  I can only expect this number to hold into the quadrillions.

Even though I prefer my practical method, no matter what method we use, it is still vulnerable to a Monte Carlo Momenttm.
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3346
  • Thanked: 1000 times
Re: My Dream Chaser
« Reply #14 on: July 04, 2015, 04:13:35 AM »
Noting an alternative method of 3 inside numbers:

1) Place 1 unit on 3 numbers (all must be in High or Low)
2) Place 6 units on H/L (unoccupied)
3) Place 2 units on an unoccupied DS

Total units: 11

Win: +2, +25

This will make the betting more expensive but it is an interesting idea.

WOW!  Initial tests with this system are showing there is no raising required!?

Ok, this was overly optimistic.  Here is the raise method I am testing:

Raise the 3 stations 1 unit after every 2nd loss.  Raise H/L 6 units, DS 3 units.

This is not consecutive loss, just every 2nd loss.

Fat betting fails after about 3 rounds and the subsequent progression fails after 13 steps with 3000 units.



These Dream Flowers are interesting.  11 units are placed on H/L and the flowers cover all remaining numbers except the 0.
« Last Edit: July 04, 2015, 07:07:18 PM by Reyth »