Author Topic: Single Number Progression By Turbo Genius  (Read 12272 times)

Reyth

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Single Number Progression By Turbo Genius
« on: June 26, 2015, 12:09:34 AM »
Is it possible to play a number - it begins at 0.00 std deviation (well, there is no history because you just started charting it at the start of the session).. and thousands of spins later it ends at 0.00 std deviation - AND you are in profit. How is that possible ?

Well - obviously it takes a progression. Now... Let's look at the past 35 spins at all times. There are 37 or 38 numbers but the payoff is 35 to 1. It doesn't make sense to form a progression based on 37 or 38 spins if the payout is 35 to 1.

Next - let's not "over-use" a progression. If we get a win within the 35 spins, why increase ? There's no need to.

So.. what will happen during the 35 spin sets ?

Your number will hit -
0 times (almost 1/3 of the time)
1 time (almost 2/3 of the time)
2 times (somewhat common)
3 times (not as common)
4 times (somewhat rare)
5 times (very rare)
6,7,8 times (prob never see it... but when you do !)

Now the progression right ? Well, we know not to increase after a "1" show. We know that we need to decrease after a 2+ showing in order to offset the increases from the "0" showings. And guess what ? If you do it right - the number will show above or below expected (or eventually end up back at 0.00 std dev) and you'll be in profit.

Here's some spins I just ran off and the result -  Played #1 only - nothing special about it. It's only slightly above std dev 0.00 and anytime it was actually at 0.00 we were in profit anyway.  No big deal with the progression either. Max it went was 7 units. Average was 3.2 units per spin (nothing special there either). 

So here's how I played it anyway... test it yourself and have fun with various increase and decrease (progression) points. Maybe you'll come across something interesting.

# of shows (past 35 spins) / what I did
0 / add 1 unit to the bet amount
1 / do nothing
2 or more / decrease bet by 1/2*

* I rounded up after decreasing by 1/2 So for example, the bet was 5 and there was 2 shows - I decrease to 3 (5/2 = 2.5, rounded up to 3)

Simple and effective to keep you in the game for a long time without the progression going out of control (it can't) and without losing your shirt in the process.

If you want to get into the math of it - Log how many 0 shows there are, how many 1 shows there are, etc (shows per 35 spin cycles) and then you will see that the 0 shows and the 2+ shows off-set one another. The "1" shows make a small profit and keep it alive.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2015, 12:13:02 AM by Reyth »


 
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Reyth

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Re: Single Number Progression By Turbo Genius
« Reply #1 on: June 26, 2015, 12:18:36 AM »
My initial play with this has resulted in 530 units of profit in about 30 minutes of spins and maybe 10 sessions (350 spins).

I made the following modification:

If my number hits and my bankroll shows a profit, generate a number from 0-36 and play it from 0 spins.

I dunno, there is something that just rubs me the wrong way about playing a single number for an entire session of hundreds of spins.  Statistically, I have shown that randomly changing your numbers after a win will increase your win rate over leaving your selections in the same place.

What I have noticed is that your profit tends to increase the more the number has slept.  When it finally wakes up there is a 33% chance of it being a repeater & another 33% chance of it showing up in the next 37 spins; that's a 66% chance of getting paid twice in close proximity with your chips in a raised position. 

If your number doesn't sleep, then its just easy profit.

The maximum number of sessions we should see without our number hitting is 13:

1x35=35
2x35=70
3x35=105
4x35=140
5x35=175
6x35=210
7x35=245
8x35=280
9x35=315
10x35=350
11x35=385
12x35=420
13x35=455

Total Units: 3,185

I don't think its likely you will ever need that many units but that's the worst it should ever get.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2015, 12:40:47 AM by Reyth »
 

scepticus

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Re: Single Number Progression By Turbo Genius
« Reply #2 on: June 26, 2015, 12:49:08 AM »
Reyth
Do you mean Risk 3,185 chips to win 1 chip  ? OR risk 3185 to win 13 chips  ?
 

Reyth

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Re: Single Number Progression By Turbo Genius
« Reply #3 on: June 26, 2015, 01:17:39 AM »
Reyth
Do you mean Risk 3,185 chips to win 1 chip  ? OR risk 3185 to win 13 chips  ?

In the case you are specifying, it would be risking 3185 chips to win 455 chips.
 

Reyth

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Re: Single Number Progression By Turbo Genius
« Reply #4 on: June 26, 2015, 01:22:22 AM »
An interesting idea has surfaced.  Since we know that we can expect no more than 13 sessions, why not use a fibbonacci or other similar progression that extends out to 13 elements?  Why stick with the simple +1 after every session of 0?

2 3 5 8 13 21 34 55 89 144 233 377 610

Shouldn't this sequence foster faster recovery?
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Single Number Progression By Turbo Genius
« Reply #5 on: June 26, 2015, 04:56:50 AM »
An interesting idea has surfaced.  Since we know that we can expect no more than 13 sessions, why not use a fibbonacci or other similar progression that extends out to 13 elements?  Why stick with the simple +1 after every session of 0?

2 3 5 8 13 21 34 55 89 144 233 377 610

Shouldn't this sequence foster faster recovery?

Or faster loss
 

kav

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Re: Single Number Progression By Turbo Genius
« Reply #6 on: June 26, 2015, 11:39:24 AM »
Or faster loss
True. Everything is a trade off.
 

Jesper

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Re: Single Number Progression By Turbo Genius
« Reply #7 on: June 26, 2015, 02:32:04 PM »
Trade off, take it reasonable, hit it not scary, and not insane!
 

Reyth

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Re: Single Number Progression By Turbo Genius
« Reply #8 on: June 26, 2015, 02:34:10 PM »
Ya even though this system seems to work, its too much of a grind for my tastes.  I guess raising just raises the necessary bankroll too much as well. :shrug:
 

Jesper

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Re: Single Number Progression By Turbo Genius
« Reply #9 on: June 26, 2015, 02:41:38 PM »
We can win for awhile, and get sudden blow!

Try to avoid negative progression.

If you do not care, for future, neg is right. If not try other
 

Jake007

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Re: Single Number Progression By Turbo Genius
« Reply #10 on: January 11, 2016, 05:32:26 AM »
Been playing this the last couple hours off and on. im using random.org to generate my random number after a win.

1000 unit bankroll, up +700, down -500, now back up +200 putting me at +400. Lots of fun and crazy times. Will be interesting to see how far I can take it. I started with 3 unit bets.
 

Reyth

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Re: Single Number Progression By Turbo Genius
« Reply #11 on: January 11, 2016, 11:14:31 AM »
Interesting to start with 3 units!
 

Vitalij_D

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Re: Single Number Progression By Turbo Genius
« Reply #12 on: January 11, 2016, 02:18:12 PM »
The maximum number of sessions we should see without our number hitting is 13:

1x35=35
2x35=70
3x35=105
4x35=140
5x35=175
6x35=210
7x35=245
8x35=280
9x35=315
10x35=350
11x35=385
12x35=420
13x35=455

Total Units: 3,185

I don't think its likely you will ever need that many units but that's the worst it should ever get.

I did a test to EXCEL on a large number of spins. You can play for a long time and successfully for a profit , but the probability of losing is 5.55 % .
 

Reyth

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Re: Single Number Progression By Turbo Genius
« Reply #13 on: January 11, 2016, 04:32:56 PM »
Very interesting!  Can you isolate that 5% of output sequences so we can examine them? 

I am sure the progression which is very basic and simple can be modified to improve that win rate significantly.  We would be looking to identify flags that are universal to these sequences and then employ a progression modification to improve the results.

If you guys like, I can generate a text file of like 1000 such loss sequences and also confirm your results with my own simulation. : )
« Last Edit: January 11, 2016, 04:38:46 PM by Reyth »
 

Jake007

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Re: Single Number Progression By Turbo Genius
« Reply #14 on: January 11, 2016, 05:19:12 PM »
Looks like I owe Reyth a beer. After those couple hours last night, I decided to play for real money (bitcoin). 0.1 BTC is equivalent to 1000 units on one of the websites I use. That is approx $44 USD. Up +500 units last night, up another +400 this morning. Thats $40 profit... thanks!