Author Topic: 4 year math degree person vs. 15 years of roulette experience  (Read 9399 times)

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mr j

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So, which person is the better roulette player? Ken


 

kav

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Re: 4 year math degree person vs. 15 years of roulette experience
« Reply #1 on: July 30, 2010, 09:33:59 AM »
Neither.
It takes much more than pure math or experience to become a better than average player.
 

mr j

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Re: 4 year math degree person vs. 15 years of roulette experience
« Reply #2 on: June 14, 2016, 11:51:38 PM »
This is still in my top 10 most "interesting" topics I have started. I think the question is fascinating.

Granted, I could of worded it a little better (laughing at myself) but its still fun to talk about.

I am huge with the whole trial & error, tweaks, learn from your mistakes etc., kinda guy.

Ken
 

Avalon

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Re: 4 year math degree person vs. 15 years of roulette experience
« Reply #3 on: June 15, 2016, 03:22:21 AM »
Are you the 4 year math degree?
 

mr j

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Re: 4 year math degree person vs. 15 years of roulette experience
« Reply #4 on: June 15, 2016, 10:47:35 PM »
No, I am not the guy with the degree (which is good I think). I am the guy that learned strictly through tough times and losing quite a bit. Trial & error, no better way to learn.  8)

Ken
 
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scepticus

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Re: 4 year math degree person vs. 15 years of roulette experience
« Reply #5 on: June 16, 2016, 01:04:35 AM »
No, I am not the guy with the degree (which is good I think). I am the guy that learned strictly through tough times and losing quite a bit. Trial & error, no better way to learn.  8)

Ken

I never make the same mistake twice  -I make it 5 or 6 times just to make sure !
 
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mr j

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Re: 4 year math degree person vs. 15 years of roulette experience
« Reply #6 on: June 16, 2016, 01:20:35 AM »
Thats the OTHER issue regarding my past progression use. Lets say a person has been playing for 15+ years.

If anyone claims they play EXACTLY the same way TODAY as they did 15 years ago, they are lying. 100% lying.

IT ALL COMES DOWN TO *LEARNING* !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Knowing what does NOT work is just as, if not more important than knowing what DOES WORK (imo).

Ken
 
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UK-21

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Re: 4 year math degree person vs. 15 years of roulette experience
« Reply #7 on: June 16, 2016, 06:08:29 AM »
So, which person is the better roulette player? Ken

It depends . . . . if the discussion is around taking advantage of wheel bias, dealer sigs etc etc then I would think if someone's been doing this for many years that experience would give them the edge over someone who hasn't. If it's a case of simply applying a "system" or other betting methodology I think the answer is neither - as neither the education or the experience will have any bearing on the randomness or house edge of the game.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: 4 year math degree person vs. 15 years of roulette experience
« Reply #8 on: June 16, 2016, 07:44:31 AM »
The trial and error method to become a  successful player is a very long way.
Before you can devellop a new engine , you have to study and research a lot.
A world champion chess has a  long way behind him.

I play nearly 40 years roulette in the B&M casino and I am rather successful.
From the beginning, I have studied the random sequences and develloped the long and short run theory.
I have the benefit that I can program systems and strategies.
« Last Edit: June 16, 2016, 07:46:15 AM by dobbelsteen »
 
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scepticus

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Re: 4 year math degree person vs. 15 years of roulette experience
« Reply #9 on: June 16, 2016, 10:00:42 PM »
So, which person is the better roulette player? Ken

It depends . . . . if the discussion is around taking advantage of wheel bias, dealer sigs etc etc then I would think if someone's been doing this for many years that experience would give them the edge over someone who hasn't. If it's a case of simply applying a "system" or other betting methodology I think the answer is neither - as neither the education or the experience will have any bearing on the randomness or house edge of the game.

AP  ,without the use of a computer , has no merit .Except in theory. They face the same Variance as Method players.
A Biased Wheel in a casino operated by  a Corporation ? Seriously UK  ?
Dealer's Signature ?  Variannce at play.
If this good idea worked in practice Physics Students would be visting casinos on a regular basis.
How many spins are neede to verify a Biased Wheel ? More than one person could note so, as Real has previously admitted, a team of at least two would be needed.
 

Real

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Re: 4 year math degree person vs. 15 years of roulette experience
« Reply #10 on: June 16, 2016, 11:37:06 PM »
Scepticus,

Can you explain to us why a computer is needed for:

1. Visual ballistics?
2. Wheel bias?

What is the difference between the two listed above?

How many spins do you believe are required to find a biased wheel and why?

What do you believe dealer's signature is, and why or how could it work?

How do you believe a player can differentiate between variance and a real edge?
« Last Edit: June 16, 2016, 11:45:45 PM by Real »
 

Sheridan44

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Re: 4 year math degree person vs. 15 years of roulette experience
« Reply #11 on: June 17, 2016, 12:01:51 AM »


Wazzup Real !

I'm guessing they didn't notice your post of a couple of day's ago. You pretty much laid it all out...

"For a sector, four standard deviations isn't all that significant unless you've pre selected the area as being the best area and have found it to be that strong in an "out of sample test".  If you've just tracked the sample and have found that the best area is running at four standard deviations in the initial sample, then the true standard deviation of the section is actually a little closer to 2.5 ish or 2.8.  If the section is indeed biased, then the standard deviation will move a little up and down, but the general trend will be for the standard deviation to grow larger and larger as the spin sample grows."

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scepticus

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Re: 4 year math degree person vs. 15 years of roulette experience
« Reply #12 on: June 17, 2016, 12:38:53 AM »
Scepticus,

Can you explain to us why a computer is needed for:

1. Visual ballistics?
2. Wheel bias?

What is the difference between the two listed above?

How many spins do you believe are required to find a biased wheel and why?

What do you believe dealer's signature is, and why or how could it work?

How do you believe a player can differentiate between variance and a real edge?
I did not say that you needed a computer for Visual Ballistics, Real.
I clearly implied that Visual Ballistics is a load of balls ! It exists in your fertile imagination.
There are too many factors in assessing Wheel Bias to be done without a computer. As for the number needed to accurately account for Wheel Bias they are no less than is needed for non AP .As I think that variance accounts for what you think is wheel bias I don't need any figure,  particularly as I think that ProbabilityTheory  is a tool to be used but is not the determining factor you think it is.
Dealer's Signature is the belief that the Dealer- for whatever reason- lands in a particular area of the wheel  more than it's probability.
I say that is a false interpretation and is more than likely to be due to variance.I don't think a dealer can do that consistently enough .
Ed Thorpe and the Wizard of  Odds take the same view as me here.
There is noREAL EDGE only a mathematical  edge and that is an Expectation not a certainty.
According  to your post quoted by Sheridan you don't actually do Visual Ballistics  but “ Track Samples “.
So tell me, Real, which method do you actually use- tracking or VB ?
I note that you don't  deny telling me that you  had the assistance of a colleague.
 

Sheridan44

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Re: 4 year math degree person vs. 15 years of roulette experience
« Reply #13 on: June 17, 2016, 12:44:54 AM »
I believe that wheel bias and dealer human frailties exist. Roulette may be perfect in a mathematical sense, but just like us - it exists in the real world.
« Last Edit: June 17, 2016, 04:18:05 AM by Sheridan44 »
 

Real

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Re: 4 year math degree person vs. 15 years of roulette experience
« Reply #14 on: June 17, 2016, 12:51:43 AM »
Quote
There are too many factors in assessing Wheel Bias to be done without a computer.

What factors?
How many of them are there?
  Can you explain them? 

Quote
As for the number needed to accurately account for Wheel Bias they are no less than is needed for non AP


How many are required?
Isn't playing a biased wheel a form of AP play?
Isn't visual ballistics a form of AP play as well?
What do you believe the difference is between biased wheel play and visual ballistics?

Quote
.As I think that variance accounts for what you think is wheel bias I don't need any figure,  particularly as I think that ProbabilityTheory  is a tool to be used but is not the determining factor you think it is.

How large do you believe the variance is?
Can you please explain what you believe to be probability theory and how it applies to biased wheels?

Quote
Dealer's Signature is the belief that the Dealer- for whatever reason- lands in a particular area of the wheel  more than it's probability.

Can you explain what you believe dealer's signature is?

Quote
I say that is a false interpretation and is more than likely to be due to variance.I don't think a dealer can do that consistently enough .

Can you explain how you'd be able to tell the difference between variance and no variance?

Quote
Ed Thorpe and the Wizard of  Odds take the same view as me here.

They do?  Can you provide some quotes as to what they think about biased wheels?

Quote
There is noREAL EDGE only a mathematical  edge and that is an Expectation not a certainty.

What do you mean by the quote above?
Quote
According  to your post quoted by Sheridan you don't actually do Visual Ballistics  but “ Track Samples “.

Can you please provide the quote?

-Real

« Last Edit: June 17, 2016, 12:53:29 AM by Real »