LOSING THE FIRST 2 OR 3 OR 4 SPINS SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY EFFECT IN THE ALREADY ESTABLISHED PROBABILITY OF SERIES.
It still remains in effect for the entire duration of the series. Palestis[size=78%] [/size]
You are partly right and wrong Jim.
Let me explain why,perhaps the probability for hitting 1 out of 5 instead of hitting 1 in 1 it's not the same as you rightfully claimed.This fact can be confirmed by everyone and it's been called binomial probability,there are plenty of binomial calculators on the internet free to calculate any possibility within any amount of trials,whether you call it Black/Red or Heads/Tails or Pass/Don't Pass...etc.
BUT you are mistaken non the less, by avoiding to bet the 2 first bets of the series of,let's say, 5 consecutive bets,you are not avoiding only lost bets but also bets that you could have won,this is what you are missing.
This is crucial when you calculate the totality of the possibilities,for example:
If your success rate to win only once within 5 trials is 96%,this means that you are going to 96 times out of 100,thus you would lose 4 x (5+10+20) = 4 x 35 = -140 BUT your profit won't be 96 x 5 because some wins from the total of 96 would be during the first and second trial which you are observing rather than betting.
To be exact,roughly 74 times out of the 96 winning bets would be wasted opportunities because you pass them as virtual bets,therefore 96 - 74 = 22 x 5 = 110 and 140 - 110 = -30
Because of the variance you could do better or worse than the figures above,what I showed is the average expected values.
The aftermath is that you cannot sidestep probability.
Just the facts.
When we say we will play 100 times, we don't count the times where you win in the first 2 bets. When that happens the system is abandoned. With no loss or gain. It only means lost time.
When we say 100 times we mean the 100 times where the first 2 bets were lost virtually. That means it might take 500 situations to become 100 playable situations
. It takes patience for that to happen.Betting all 5 times to take advantage of any winning opportunities
here is what will happen.
We have to place 5 bets (5+10+20+40+80)= 155 to risk.
At 96% winning rate we expect to win 5x96=480 units.
But the very small 4% losing rate will result in 4x155=620 units lost.
Playing all spins will always result in a loss. A big loss even with an impressive 96% win rate.
We are only concerned with the situation where the bets will be 0+0+5+10+20. If that's not happening we wait till it happens. Y the pressure to bet?
The risk now is 35 units while all probabilities remain the same.
The probability doesn't change in getting 1 win out of 5 trials, if we see it as (A) 5,10,20,40,80 or we see it as (B) 0,0,5,10,20. Probability has to do with number of trials. Not money amounts. The difference is that we are only looking to find a situation (B). And we abandon a situation where a win occurs in the first 2 bets. That's how being patient affects the results. We always wait for the roulette to come to OUR TERMS. We shouldn't follow her terms. That's the secret of success.
Don't forget when you were here, we never lost at Mohegan or Twin River betting the opposite after seeing 6 or more of the same EC. Remember?
Those 6 black on the board and playing red 3 times meant this: 0+0+0+0+0+0+5+10+20.
A 9 bet series where the first 6 were cost free. And I thought you liked this method very much.
And if you have unlimited bank roll you may never lose. Ever.
How many times do you think you will lose in a row, betting 3 red after seeing 6 black?
That means in order to lose, every time you see 6 black, they must become 10 black in a row.
I still haven't seen that happening 3 times in a row, never mind indefinitely.
So with a large bank roll you can never lose.
There is nothing wrong to have $15,000 bank roll and aim to win $300.
Most business have to invest a lot more than $15,000 to make less than $300. Y not in roulette?