Author Topic: Static betting 5 DS.  (Read 4933 times)

Jesper

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Static betting 5 DS.
« on: June 13, 2015, 06:55:06 AM »
I will try to gain 100 chips, using 0.1 value on a NOZERO WHEEL.
Play one chip untill a loss, add one chip on every DS if not new high after a miss.

Done this so far;

Bet 5 DS, 01 value chip.
1 chip, 2-5.
29 fall, balance 100.10
Same bet.
7 fall, balance 100.20.
Same bet
26 fall, balance 100.30.
Same bet.
1 fall, balance 99.80.
Bet 2 chips.
10 fall, balance 100.
Same bet.
31 fall balance 100.20.
Same bet
29 fall, balance 100.40
Bet 1 chip.
25 fall, balance 100.50.
Bet same.
21 fall, balance 100.60.
Bet same.
6 fall, balance 100.10.
Bet 2 chips.
28 fall, balance 100.30.
Bet same.
35 fall, balance 100.50.
Bet same.
18 fall, balance 100.70.
New high balance return to
1 chip.



 

Jesper

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Re: Static betting 5 DS.
« Reply #1 on: June 13, 2015, 07:18:56 AM »
Bet 5 DS, 01 value chip.
1 chip, 2-5.
18 fall, balance 100.80
27 fall, balance 100.90
17 fall, balance 101.00
30 fall, balabce,101.10
23 fall, balance 101.20
35 fall, balance 101.30
16 fall, balance 101.40
33 fall, balance 101.50
25 fall, balance 101.60
32 fall, balance 101.70
12 fall, balance 101.80
08 fall, balance 101.90
23 fall, balance 102.00
No miss continue the same.
 

Jesper

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Re: Static betting 5 DS.
« Reply #2 on: June 13, 2015, 07:34:54 AM »
Bet 5 DS, 01 value chip.
1 chip, 2-5.
3 fall, balance 101.50
Bet 2 chips.
3 fall, balance 100.50
Bet 3 chips.
19 fall,balance 100.80.
4 fall, balance 99.30
Bet 4 chips.
24 fall, balance 99.70.
36 fall, balance 100.10.
6 fall, balance 98.10
Bet 5 chips.
28 fall, balance 98.60.
30 fall, balance 99.10
22 fall, balance 99.60
6 fall, balance 97.10.
Bet 6 chips.
14 fall, balance 97.70.
31 fall, balance 98.30
30 fall, balance 98.90
3 fall balance 95.90.
Bet 7 chips.
19 fall, balance 96.60.
11 fall, balance 97.30
22 fall, balance 98.00
6 fall balance 94.50.
bet 8 chips.
36 fall, balance 95.30

Many misses, some may say it is
because the bet is static, it is
not a good bet selection, no trigger, other will
think it does not matter.
I say wait and see, I do not know yet.
 

Jesper

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Re: Static betting 5 DS.
« Reply #3 on: June 13, 2015, 07:50:02 AM »
Bet 5 DS, 01 value chip.
8 chips, 2-5.

23 fall, balance 96.10.
3 fall, balance 92.10.
Bet 9 chips.
28 fall, balance 93.00.
10 fall, balance 93.90.
23 fall, balance 94.80.
30 fall, balance 95.70.
12 fall, balance 96,60.
10 fall, balance 97.50.
34 fall, balance 98.40.
24 fall, balance 99.30.
36 fall, balance 100.20.
10 fall, balance 101.10.
24 fall, balance 102.00.
Revert to 1 chip bet.
10 fall, balance 102.10.
4 fall, balance 101.60.
Bet 2 chips.
14 fall, balance 101.80.
9 fall, balance  102.00.
28 fall, balance 102.20.
Revert to 1 chip bet.

 

Jesper

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Re: Static betting 5 DS.
« Reply #4 on: June 13, 2015, 08:07:52 AM »
Bet 5 DS, 01 value chip.
1 chip, 2-5.

35 fall, balance 102.30.
30 fall, balance 102.40.
01 fall, balance 101.90.
Bet 2 chips.
33 fall, balance 102.10
33 fall, balance 102.30.
Revert ti 1 chip.
7 fall, balance 102.40.
26 fall, balance 102.50.
22 fall, balance 102.60.
28 fall, balance 102.70.
20 fall, balance 102.80.
4 fall, balance 102.30.
Bet 2 chips.
6 fall, balance 101.30.
Bet 3 chips.
18 fall, balance 101.60.
19 fall, balance 101.90.
14 fall, balance 102.20.
21 fall, balance 102.50.
3 fall, balance 101.00.
Bet 4 chips.
2 fall, balance 99.00.
Bet 5 chips.
3 fall, balance 96.50.
bet 6 chips.
24 fall, balance 97.10.
35 fall, balance 90.70.
15 fall, balance 98.30.
18 fall, balance 98.90.
35 fall, balance 99.50.
02 fall, balance 96.50.
Bet 7 chips.
24 fall balance 97.20.
19 fall, balance 97.90.
10 fall, balance 98.60

A cluster of losing spins!
 

Jesper

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Re: Static betting 5 DS.
« Reply #5 on: June 13, 2015, 08:15:53 AM »
Bet 5 DS, 01 value chip.
7 chip, 2-5.

8 fall, balance 99.30.
03 fall, balance 95.80.
Bet 8 chips.
19 fall, balance 96.60.
15 fall, balance 97.40.
32 fall, balance 98.20.
08 fall, balance 99.00.
17 fall, balance 99.80.
21 fall, balance 100.60.
18 fall, balance 101.40.
30 fall, balance 102.20.
23 fall, balance 103.00.
Revert to 1 chip.

 

Jesper

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Re: Static betting 5 DS.
« Reply #6 on: June 13, 2015, 08:34:48 AM »

Bet 5 DS, 01 value chip.
1 chip, 2-5.

22 fall, balance 102.10
30 fall, balance 103.20
14 fall, balance 103.30
21 fall, balance 103.40
33 fall, balance 103.50
33 fall, balance 103.60
02 fall, balance 103.10.
Bet 2 chips.
33 fall, balance 103.30.
32 fall, balance 103.50.
25 fall, balance 103.70.
revert to 1 chip.
7 fall, balance 103.80.
2 fall, balance 103.30.
bet 2 chips.
4 fall, balance 102.30.
bet 3 chips.
18 fall, balance 102.60.
21 fall, balance 102.90.
22 fall, balance 103.20.
30 fall, balance 103.50.
04 fall, balance 102.00
Bet 4 chips.
29 fall, balance 102.40.
32 fall, balance 102.80.
28 fall, balance 103.20.
18 fall, balance 103.60
10 fall, balance 104.00.
Revert to 1 chip.
 

Jesper

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Re: Static betting 5 DS.
« Reply #7 on: June 13, 2015, 08:46:24 AM »
Bet 5 DS, 01 value chip.
1 chip, 2-5.

06 fall balance 103.50
Bet 2 chips.
32 fall, balance 103.70
25 fall, balance 103.90.
25 fall, balance 104.10.
revert to 1 chip.
22 fall, balance 104.20.
26 fall, balance 104.30.
36 fall, balance 104.40.
31 fall, balance 104.50.
09 fall, balance 104.60.
25 fall, balance 104.70.
28 fall, balance 104.80.
11 fall balance 104.00.
20 fall balance 105.00.

On NOZ there is time limit
and the bank fee is
recalculated (10% of win).
I  end this now as it is
half the way, and start
an other session for
the other half target.
« Last Edit: June 13, 2015, 06:58:56 PM by Jesper »
 

Jesper

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Re: Static betting 5 DS.
« Reply #8 on: June 13, 2015, 05:51:14 PM »
Start over with 100 Euro, 5 Euro plus before.

bet 1 chip, DS 1-5.
6 fall, balance 100.10.
14 fall, balance 100.20.
16 fall, balance 100.30.
19 fall, balance 100.40.
17 fall, balance 100.50.
28 fall, balance 100.60.
28 fall, balance 100.70.
32 fall, balance 100.20.
bet 2 chips.
29 fall, balance 100.40.
15 fall, balance 100.60.
19 fall, balance 100.80.
Bet 1 chip.
19 fall, balance 100.90.
32 fall, balance 100.40.
bet 2 chips.
12 fall, balance 100.60.
13 fall, balance 100.80.
22 fall, balance 101.00.
bet 1 chip.
19 fall, balance 101.10.
26 fall, balance 101.20
 

december

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Re: Static betting 5 DS.
« Reply #9 on: June 13, 2015, 06:07:00 PM »
It looks pretty safe.
 

Jesper

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Re: Static betting 5 DS.
« Reply #10 on: June 13, 2015, 06:19:35 PM »
bet 1 chip, DS 1-5.
balance 101.20.
13 fall, balance 101.30.
30 fall, balance 101.40.
25 fall, balance 101.50.
26 fall, balance 101.60.
32 fall, balance 101.10.
Bet 2 chips.
28 fall, balance 100.30.
22 fall, balance 100.50.
10 fall, balance 101.70.
Bet 1 chip.
14 fall, balance 101.80.
19 fall, balance 101.90.
16 fall, balance 102.00.
06 fall, balance 102.10.
12 fall, balance 102.20.
25 fall, balance 102.30.
22 fall, balance 102.40.
12 fall, balance 102.50.
 

Jesper

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Re: Static betting 5 DS.
« Reply #11 on: June 13, 2015, 06:35:37 PM »
bet 1 chip, DS 1-5.
balance 102.50.
7 fall, balance 102.60.
35 fall, balance 102.10.
Bet 2 chips.
26 balance 102.30.
08 fall balance 102.50.
03 fall balance 102.70.
bet  1 chip.
14 fall, balance 102.80.
08 fall, balance 102.90.
21 fall, balance 103.00.
15 fall, balance 103.10.
18 fall, balance 103.20.
17 fall, balance 103.30.
22 fall, balance 103.40.
08 fall, balance 103.50.
15 fall, balance 103.60.
11 fall, balance 103.70.
04 fall, balance 103.80.
11 fall, balance 103.90.
01 fall, balance 104.00.
 

Jesper

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Re: Static betting 5 DS.
« Reply #12 on: June 13, 2015, 06:50:58 PM »
bet 1 chip, DS 1-5.
balance 104.00.

29 fall, balance 104.10.
35 fall, balance 103.60.
Bet 2 chips.
7 fall, balance 103.80.
18 fall, balance 104.00.
28 fall, balance 104.20.
Bet 1 chip.
17 fall, balance 104.30.
22 fall, balance 104.40.
16 fall, balance 104.50.
18 fall, balance 104.60.
36 fall, balance 104.10.
Bet 2 chips.
30 fall, balance 104.30.
34 fall, balance 103.30.
bet 3 chips.
19 fall, balance 103.60.
05 fall, balance 103.90.
16 fall, balance 104.20
15 fall, balance 104.50.
19 fall, balance 104.80.
Bet 1 chip.
11 fall, balance 104.90.
16 fall, balance 105.00.

Target of 100 chips reached!
If played on FR wheel, we use
HIGH or LOW  and 2 DS, which
return some if Zero fall.
 

Reyth

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Re: Static betting 5 DS.
« Reply #13 on: July 21, 2015, 07:51:55 AM »
Wondering about scaling the raises to maintain the same recovery chances as with the first miss which is 3 spins in a row. 

So like on the first spin you lose so you are at -5.  To go into profit you need to earn +6 and you raise to 2 units.

Lets say you miss twice.  Now the debt is -15.  To go into profit you need to earn +16 and you raise to 3 units.

I think the formula is ((debt+1)/3) units.  So the second raise should be 17/3=5.67 units (rounding up).  This way the odds don't slip the further we go.

I only play European so the max loss to be expected in a row is 9.  Put into a simulator it remains continuously profitable. 

One way of approaching it is "How many spins will it go without hitting 3 times in a row?"  The answer is 18.  So assuming the worst possible sequence where only 1 win occurs before the coup:

5   5
10   15
26.66666667   41.66666667
71.11111111   112.7777778
189.6296296   302.4074074
505.6790123   808.0864198
1348.477366   2156.563786
3595.939643   5,033.50
8390.839   13424.3424
22375.57067   35799.91307
59668.18844   95468.10151
159115.1692   254583.2707
424307.1178   678890.3885
1131485.648   1810376.036
3017295.06   4827671.096
8046120.16   12873791.26
17 W
18 W

19     ===> PROFIT

Since the last 3 must be wins, the maximum loss sequence is 16 but with one win within that 16.

Another question is, "What is the maximum expected raise amount required to be profitable?"

The maximum "gap" is 82 which represents accrued losses being worth -3 and wins being worth +1.  It is expected to dip as low as -82 but no lower.  This would indicate 410 units of raw loss but the missing part is all of the raising going on in the meantime.  So without simulating an actual bankroll, its kind of difficult to make any concrete use out of it.

Ok!  I just realized something!!  Since it remains constantly profitable with the 3-1 ratio, why not try to lower the ratio to 4-1 or even lower until it starts to lose!?  The lowest possible ratio where it still wins is .71 to 3.  So therefore for actual play we could make it .75 so its an even 4-1.

I will simulate with .01 as the base unit and the raise being a constant ((debt+1)/4.23) units.

5   5
7.092198582   12.09219858
15.47541203   27.56761062
33.76786125   61.33547187
73.68259086   135.0180627
160.7778519   295.7959146
350.8225941   646.6185088
765.5065116   1412.12502
1670.360544   1,078.05        <=== WIN
1275.476254   2353.529166
2783.131401   5136.660567
6072.884831   11209.5454
13251.23569   24460.78109
28914.63486   53375.41595
63092.69025   116468.1062
137670.3383   254138.4445

17 3004 (W)
18 (W)

19  (W)   ===> PROFIT

On a penny table the max loss would be $2,541 before the win streak hits.  The final betting amount would be $3,004 (roughly 601 units per DS).  The chances of seeing this sequence are probably close to once in a lifetime; I could output the loss distribution with actual odds.

At the moment I can't think of any way to lower those betting amounts as anything below a 3-.71 ratio just simply loses.

I hope you will let me keep this post here as this method of analysis is new to me how I was able to determine the exact borderline between a losing and winning raising ratio.

I also like how its not a standard "win in one spin" progression but one that wins in 4+ spins.
« Last Edit: July 21, 2015, 09:39:48 AM by Reyth »
 

Reyth

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Re: Static betting 5 DS.
« Reply #14 on: July 23, 2015, 01:57:47 AM »
Actually this is HG if you have the bankroll and no limit table.  Of course I see your point to somehow create an advantageous trigger system and also how: 1) The bets are rigid, 2) The raise amounts are rigid.

Thanks!