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Real

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Past spins question
« on: June 12, 2015, 03:41:22 AM »
Why on earth do people naively believe that past spins have an effect on future spins???

1. The dealer doesn't block a number from hitting once it's hit.
2. The same number of numbers remain on the wheel from one spin to the next.
3. The wheel and ball have no memory.
4. Therefore the probability of winning remains the same from one spin to the next.

So what is it that you think is reaching back and forth in time... that some how magically enables "triggers" and "virtual" bets to work???

Magic?
Fairy dust?

Can anyone put forth a logical reason as to why?
« Last Edit: June 12, 2015, 06:55:34 AM by kav »


 

BlueAngel

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Why
« Reply #1 on: June 12, 2015, 04:25:12 AM »
Quote
@ Real,You have disgraced Steve Martin's image in our eyes!:-)


LOL

Seriously though, why on earth do people naively believe that past spins have an effect on future spins???


1. The dealer doesn't block a number from hitting once it's hit.
2. The same number of numbers remain on the wheel from one spin to the next.
3. The wheel and ball have no memory.
4. Therefore the probability of winning remains the same from one spin to the next.

I want to act as Devil's advocate for a while,so if you what you say is true,why we never saw five times the same number.Three times in a row is rare and four times is the extreme,thus variance and random have their limits.
This fact leads to the conclusion that after certain events,some other specific might follow.
Really,do you believe statistics,which is branch of mathematics,is useless??
If we analyze the word Devil,actually are two words in one de evil, de on some languages is an article,like 'the' on English.But Devil is more like a title rather than name.
The real name of D'evil is Lucifer.
Lucifer on Greek (Eosforos) means the one who brings the light,but don't take it literally.
Such a person is user Real,or the being with many names,if you don't believe me just take a closer look at his profile picture.The Devil is in the details...
He wants to enlighten us all,we should be forever in his debt!
 

Real

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Re: Why
« Reply #2 on: June 12, 2015, 04:30:58 AM »
Quote
I want to act as Devil's advocate for a while,so if you what you say is true,why we never saw five times the same number.-Blue Angel

Blue Angel,

I have seen a number hit five times in a row, on two separate occasions.

The probability of seeing any number hit back to back is 1 in 37
If you wait for a number to hit two times in a row, then the probabiltiy that it will hit a third time is 1 in 37. 
If you wait for a number to hit three times in a row, then the probability that it will hit a forth time is 1 in 37.
If you wait for a number to hit four times in a row, then the probability that it will hit a fifth time is 1 in 37.
If you were to wait around for a really long long time for a number to hit five times in a row, then the probability that it will hit for a sixth time is.......again 1 in 37.

The reason that you don't often see five in a row is because there are more ways for the number NOT to hit five times in a row. 
Understand?

There are many great sources that will teach you basic probability as it applies to roulette.  The wizardofodds.com is a great place to begin learning.


Best of luck,

Real
« Last Edit: June 12, 2015, 04:36:59 AM by Real »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Why
« Reply #3 on: June 12, 2015, 05:50:50 AM »
I know some folk who would disagree with you.
Some support that if there is a 48.65% chance for 1 red in one spin,then for 2 spins the chance becomes 73%.(odds changing regarding the number of trials)
Is it false according to your expertise?
 

Jesper

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Re: Past spins question
« Reply #4 on: June 12, 2015, 07:56:31 AM »
Every spins have the same expectation.  It is not wrong to say (NOZ) EC has 50% to fall every spin,
the probability of two in a a row is 25%. If we use a method we will win IF some conditions apply.

A martingale player do not care if 100 spins have 90 losing spins and 10 winnings, something he near never seen. The Point is the player do not want 11 opposite in a row.
Waiting for the opposite to run long, will mathematical not help, the player relay on the fact
such event he  near never seen.  If  the player find he win, he will have more confidence in his
method or theory. It is no use to try to change the mind of a player, has had good experience.
The very same method will be regarded bad if he lose too often.
The player can not know the next spin, he can speculate

How often have we not seen diffrent options of a system, some say it is a loser an other it is a Winner.
It is a Winner until it lose.  If it fit the outcome it wins. It is the IF.
If it were different, such as all players Winn, or all players lose, it would not be gambling.

Some Think, and even some academic professionals, as there is a bellcurve, it must be a force making it. It can not forever be a growing unbalance. 
Even if it were true I do not Think it is of much use in practical play.

 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Past spins question
« Reply #5 on: June 12, 2015, 04:03:51 PM »
Opponents of probability always look at the next event.
Blaise Pascal gives us the famous triangel to learn all the possible sequences of a sample. The chance of a single spin  is never a point of discussion by intelectual persons.
 

Real

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Re: Past spins question
« Reply #6 on: June 12, 2015, 04:13:10 PM »
Quote
I know some folk who would disagree with you.Some support that if there is a 48.65% chance for 1 red in one spin,then for 2 spins the chance becomes 73%.(odds changing regarding the number of trials)Is it false according to your expertise?

After red has hit, the probability on the next spin does not change.  Why should it?

Why do you feel that past spins affect future spins?  Where's the logic?
« Last Edit: June 12, 2015, 04:17:24 PM by Real »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Past spins question
« Reply #7 on: June 12, 2015, 09:34:16 PM »
Quote
I know some folk who would disagree with you.Some support that if there is a 48.65% chance for 1 red in one spin,then for 2 spins the chance becomes 73%.(odds changing regarding the number of trials)Is it false according to your expertise?

After red has hit, the probability on the next spin does not change.  Why should it?

Why do you feel that past spins affect future spins?  Where's the logic?

Simply it comes down to perception and interpretation of the same facts/events,what you claim is true as long as someone considers a storm as raindrops,which is true but partly,many "raindrops" are making what we call "rainstorm" and that's the way I consider things.
In other words,you are missing the "big picture" Real.
Just the facts
 

Real

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Re: Past spins question
« Reply #8 on: June 12, 2015, 10:31:42 PM »
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Simply it comes down to perception and interpretation of the same facts/events,what you claim is true as long as someone considers a storm as raindrops,which is true but partly,many "raindrops" are making what we call "rainstorm" and that's the way I consider things.In other words,you are missing the "big picture" Real.Just the facts-Real

Rainstorm?  Seriously?

Again, where's the logic?

Why do people naively believe that past spins have any effect on future spins?
(Perhaps someone could provide some kind of lucid reasoning this time.)
 

Reyth

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Re: Past spins question
« Reply #9 on: June 13, 2015, 07:16:47 AM »
The chance of a single spin  is never a point of discussion by intellectual persons.



NICE ONE! : D
 

Reyth

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Re: Past spins question
« Reply #10 on: June 13, 2015, 01:13:23 PM »


We're discussed this before but to review, there is a reason why there is no occurrence of a miss on 20 stations after 20 spins in a row and this was repeated 16000000 times with the same result.

HINT: Its not because your everlasting 20/37 calculation got REALLY unlucky.

The casinos know this, why you don't is beyond me.

Your previous response regarding this was:

Quote from: Real
Now regarding your "maximum of 20 loses".  If you wait for a "zillion" spins to see your 19 numbers lose 20 times in a row, then you will find that it still loses 20 times in a row every "zillion" times you try it.
Understand?

Which translates to: I tacitly agree with the concept of equal distribution as you have shown it but it is impractical and therefore useless.

But then you make this post?  What is the purpose of this post unless you can do better this time?
« Last Edit: June 13, 2015, 01:43:06 PM by Reyth »
 

Real

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Re: Past spins question
« Reply #11 on: June 13, 2015, 03:49:04 PM »
Quote
We're discussed this before but to review, there is a reason why there is no occurrence of a miss on 20 stations after 20 spins in a row and this was repeated 16000000 times with the same result.

Reyth,

You clearly have it all figured out.  You should immediately post on the wizardofvegas, and some math forums that you have found a flaw in basic probability.

The question remains, Why people feel that past spins affect future spins?  Where's the logic?
« Last Edit: June 13, 2015, 03:50:41 PM by Real »
 

kav

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Re: Past spins question
« Reply #12 on: June 13, 2015, 04:24:30 PM »
The question remains, Why people feel that past spins affect future spins?  Where's the logic?
I don't think this is a genuine question. Because if someone answers you you're gonna say this is irrational. Then you have to give your own explanation for this phenomenon. Give your own explanation for the popularity of what you describe as "gambler's fallacy".
 

Real

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Re: Past spins question
« Reply #13 on: June 13, 2015, 04:27:33 PM »
The question is very real.

Why do people feel that past spins affect future spins?  What do you believe causes spins from the past to reach into the future and change the outcome?

Failing to realize that each spin is an independent trial has many people building foolish systems.
« Last Edit: June 13, 2015, 04:30:27 PM by Real »
 

kav

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Re: Past spins question
« Reply #14 on: June 13, 2015, 04:33:06 PM »
The question is very real.
Why do people feel that past spins affect future spins?  What do you believe causes spins from the past to reach into the future and change the outcome?
I'm telling you that you are gonna dismiss any answer as illogical. However then you'd have to give your own answer.