Play roulette at Royal Panda

Author Topic: The flawed Advantage Play System (by scepticus)  (Read 7674 times)

kav

  • www.Roulette30.com
  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1685
  • Thanked: 714 times
  • Gender: Male
The flawed Advantage Play System (by scepticus)
« on: June 04, 2015, 08:54:31 PM »
Method players are  often derided as delusionists by the AP players . But what about the self - proclaimed Roulette Professionals belief that their AP system is foolproof  ? Is it ?

Consider:
1 ) The claim that they use past numbers to determine a “biased “ wheel  .
Isn’t it illogical to argue that we Method players cannot use past numbers to help determine our bets while THEY can ?
Isn’t it illogical to then go on to calculate Wheel and Rotor  Speed AFTER they have found a biased wheel  ? Don’t they understand that a biased wheel ALREADY shows the favoured numbers ?
Don’t they understand that they  need  as many past numbers to determine the  “fitness of the Wheel “ as they claim Method players  do to determine our bets ? Of the SAME wheel - continuously ?  ( though I think “ continuously “ is debateable )

2 ) The claim that THEY don’t need computers for calculating.
Are we really to believe that Physicists and Mathematicians , such as Thorp and Samuelson were so dumb that they needed computers while the AP fantasists don’t ?
There have been  cases where Casinos have taken people to Court accusing them of fraud by using computers which allowed them to make big wins . I know of no case where a self-styled AP has been taken to Court .

3 ) They claim that no mathematician accepts that a player can win at roulette when even The Wizard of  Odds admits that some can when using a strategy. ( though when he wrote that I suspect he said - under his breath - “ but not in the Long Run “ )

4 ) They claim that the casinos use sharp practices to thwart AP players ( and ONLY AP players  ! ) And yet also claim that those nasty casinos have biased wheels for the AP players to exploit !
Isn’t it clear that what  they do  - and ALL they do - is clock the speed of the  wheel , the ball and the rotor   to determine where the ball is likely to land ?And bet that area ? All the rest of their “expertise “ is nonsense !

5 ) As for the Long Run argument. In the Long Run we are all dead . Why should we worry about losing after we are dead ? No one dare say how long their Long Run is because it would be derided by other mathematicians. It is unknowable . A guess .

Our critics  should understand that , like us , they GUESS  and that, in essence , is what gambling is about . Risking money on an event the result of which is uncertain.
It is high time that our AP critics stopped their silly, repetitive putdowns and realise that , while they may know about roulette wheel manufacture ,they don’t know as much about roulette as they pretend to know. 

[scepticus had technical difficulties, so I posted his text]


 

sqzbox

  • New
  • **
  • Posts: 60
  • Thanked: 5 times
Re: The flawed Advantage Play System (by scepticus)
« Reply #1 on: June 04, 2015, 10:21:13 PM »
In my opinion, the days of AP in terms of visual ballistics, computer use, even biased wheel play are over. Why do I believe this? Several reasons really.

1. With the advent of the "information superhighway" (the internet) now anyone who chooses to investigate how to beat the game will discover the AP techniques. This raises its profile and puts it into the public arena in such a way that even the casinos can find out all they need to know about it.  Therefore - counter-measures!

2. I recently studied some wheels at my local casino. I measured the distance from the point at which the ball drops off the rim to where it finally lands on the wheel. The current combination of modern engineered wheel, fret size and shape, and ball properties provides a scatter zone that encompasses the entire 360 degrees, almost evenly.  Therefore, no matter how accurate your VB or hidden computer, the scatter is such that the ball can literally go anywhere. 

So - these techniques can no longer beat the wheel.

 

Mike

  • Veteran Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 557
  • Thanked: 23 times
Re: The flawed Advantage Play System (by scepticus)
« Reply #2 on: June 05, 2015, 11:21:38 AM »
Scepticus,

1. I don't think any biased wheel player today would rely solely on numbers hit to detect a biased wheel. You might collect some numbers to verify and correlate a bias detected by other means (visually). And the way the numbers are used is quite different in the two cases.

2. Thorpe built his computer a long time ago, at the time it seemed like a good idea, but you really don't need a computer to win these days.

3. I don't believe the Wizard of odds ever said (or would say) such a thing. What he HAS said, in response to people claiming that they are winning is that it's due to "luck and progressions". And progressions can of course keep you going for a while, maybe a long while if you're lucky.

4. Your description of AP is very simplistic, there is quite a bit more to it than that. You need to take into account other factors like ball type, number of dominant diamonds, and so on.

5. I'm not sure what the long run argument has to do with AP.

Of course AP is guessing, but it's EDUCATED guessing, based on various physical factors. Systems, on the other hand, if they try to predict at all the outcome of the next spin (and not just use progressions) are PURE guessing, that is, guesses based on NOTHING.

@ sqzbox,

I refer you to point 4 above. Or check out the rouletteplace forum (myrulet.com) for detailed explanations and discussions of VB.
 

scepticus

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1805
  • Thanked: 379 times
Re: The flawed Advantage Play System (by scepticus)
« Reply #3 on: June 05, 2015, 02:49:21 PM »
Mike
 1 )The point  I was making is that APs castigate Method players for using previous winning numbers claiming that these are valueless because " the wheel has no memory ".It is contradictory to then claim that THEY can use them.Furthermore , if the previous  numbers show that a section of the wheel is favoured then there is no need for wheel tracking because you already KNOW the favoured section.
2 )A computer may not be necessary for AP but it has provenance as witness the Court Cases of those useing them.Even at that they are not the Holy Grail .If they were we would all be using them. Have you read Thorp's account of his - and Samelson's - attempts ? And his use of " old fashioned " computers enabled him to beat Blackjack didn't they ?
3 ) He did.I read it on the Question and Answer section on his website a few years ago.
4 ) My description of AP is, in essence, what you do. I am aware that other factors are taken into account.I could  not fail to do so ,having read numerous posts about them over the years.One was posted in this very site recently - and approved by REAL /MOM U. Some of them consider almost everything except farting. Extra factors mean extra time to calculate which means less time to place bats before NMB.
5 ) I inserted the Long Run argument in anticipation of  the usual boring criticism that we cannot win in the Long run.If you had read as many negative posts by APs as I have you would understand.
Thanks for agreeing with my main point. We are all guessing . I agree that "educated " guesses are more likely to win than "uneducated " guesses. But then I would, wouldn't I, because I use "educated " guesses.
But this is a forum, Mike, and a forum is a place where people express and discuss viewpoints.People should be allowed to express their views free from the sneering of others.Particularly, as we agree that we are only guessing.
 

Real

  • Fighting the war on absurdity one foolish idea at a time.
  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1220
  • Thanked: 136 times
  • Gender: Female
Re: The flawed Advantage Play System (by scepticus)
« Reply #4 on: June 05, 2015, 03:32:11 PM »
(1)Using past numbers to measure the fitness of the gaming device/wheel is not the same thing as using them to determine when red or black is " due" to hit.

I'm shocked that everyone doesn't readily understand why.  Perhaps I assume that most players are smarter than they really are.  This has me worried.  Consequently, since some people can't comprehend why there is a difference, I suppose I need to explain some of the other things that some of us just assume everyone already knows.

Scepticus, ...read carefully. 
1.  You shouldn't bet red and black at the same time.

2. The roulette chips aren't edible.

3. Tipping doesn't mean tilting the table.

4. "Hot numbers" won't burn your fingers

5. "Cold numbers" won't cool your drink

6. You can't park your car on a "roulette street".

7. If you bet every number, then you'll "hit" every spin, but you will still lose.

8. "Hot streaks" do not leave burn marks on the table.

9. The wheel is where the ball is spun. 

10. The table layout doesn't spin.

There's more, but you'll have to wait until later.

-Real
« Last Edit: June 05, 2015, 07:23:21 PM by Real »
 

scepticus

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1805
  • Thanked: 379 times
Re: The flawed Advantage Play System (by scepticus)
« Reply #5 on: June 05, 2015, 08:47:11 PM »
Right on cue, REAL / Man Of Many Usernames. Thanks for that.
Now, perhaps, Mike will understand why I put the Long run in. If not, you would have used your stock "biblical" quotations about understanding Probability Theory.He will, no doubt, also see why people complain about your sneering attitude to others. Right on cue you obliged.
I am aware that " in days of old when knights were bold " there were people who tracked roulette wheels for THOUSANDS of spins to establish the " fitness of the wheel ". But these days are long gone .Finding a wheel  sufficiently biased for exploitation ARE few and far between.Anyway you fail -  again -  to explain why you still track the wheel when you have already found   the favoured section.There is no need .Nor do you say how many thousands of prior spins are needed to justify your conclusion that the wheel IS biased.Theory is one thing - doing is quite another .
When I bet  a colour I make it using formula /formulae made by REAL mathematicians .So it is NOT a blind guess.

[Edited by mod. Let's try to avoid getting personal. This is about sharing ideas not about our egos. Btw, I will keep actively removing or editing offensive posts and remarks. Long live Gamblers Glenn :-)]
« Last Edit: June 05, 2015, 08:54:32 PM by kav »
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3318
  • Thanked: 979 times
Re: The flawed Advantage Play System (by scepticus)
« Reply #6 on: June 05, 2015, 11:53:53 PM »
Well now.  This is a true thread of intellectual warfare.



I personally know nothing about AP & so I hope Real will be up to the task of a proper defense.  So far:

Scep: 1 Real: 0
« Last Edit: June 05, 2015, 11:56:50 PM by Reyth »
 

BlueAngel

  • I always express my opinion
  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1491
  • Thanked: 207 times
  • Gender: Male
  • Do you want truth? You cannot handle the truth!
Re: The flawed Advantage Play System (by scepticus)
« Reply #7 on: June 06, 2015, 12:03:59 AM »
(1)Using past numbers to measure the fitness of the gaming device/wheel is not the same thing as using them to determine when red or black is " due" to hit.

I'm shocked that everyone doesn't readily understand why.  Perhaps I assume that most players are smarter than they really are.  This has me worried.  Consequently, since some people can't comprehend why there is a difference, I suppose I need to explain some of the other things that some of us just assume everyone already knows.

Scepticus, ...read carefully. 
1.  You shouldn't bet red and black at the same time.

2. The roulette chips aren't edible.

3. Tipping doesn't mean tilting the table.

4. "Hot numbers" won't burn your fingers

5. "Cold numbers" won't cool your drink

6. You can't park your car on a "roulette street".

7. If you bet every number, then you'll "hit" every spin, but you will still lose.

8. "Hot streaks" do not leave burn marks on the table.

9. The wheel is where the ball is spun. 

10. The table layout doesn't spin.

There's more, but you'll have to wait until later.

-Real

JUST THE FACTS!

To your success, cheers!
 

scepticus

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1805
  • Thanked: 379 times
Re: The flawed Advantage Play System (by scepticus)
« Reply #8 on: June 06, 2015, 02:40:13 AM »
You are right, kav.we shouldn't indulge in " the personal ". So I shall make a strenuous to avoid answering REAL's posts .
« Last Edit: June 06, 2015, 03:16:17 AM by kav »
 

Jesper

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1141
  • Thanked: 549 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: The flawed Advantage Play System (by scepticus)
« Reply #9 on: June 06, 2015, 06:00:45 AM »
Why not play with a both way a system which has some AP-properties?
A system favor repeating numbers use "The law of third" and if we do not believe in that, we can say "the biased Wheel will explain it self".  Now waiting just play, crossing fingers secret.

 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3318
  • Thanked: 979 times
Re: The flawed Advantage Play System (by scepticus)
« Reply #10 on: June 06, 2015, 06:13:16 AM »
I actually have done this but with cold numbers.  Play a black/red system until proper cold numbers are identified.  This of course is the system version but obviously can be applied to AP instead.
 

Mike

  • Veteran Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 557
  • Thanked: 23 times
Re: The flawed Advantage Play System (by scepticus)
« Reply #11 on: June 06, 2015, 06:43:53 AM »

 1 )The point  I was making is that APs castigate Method players for using previous winning numbers claiming that these are valueless because " the wheel has no memory ".It is contradictory to then claim that THEY can use them.Furthermore , if the previous  numbers show that a section of the wheel is favoured then there is no need for wheel tracking because you already KNOW the favoured section.

I understand the point you were making, but it's not valid. It's not contradictory because the numbers are used for different purposes. Surely you can see this? it's one thing to track numbers to determine bias and quite another to use them to "predict" which even chance or dozen will come up next, based on the "law of averages"  (the gambler's fallacy). Of course, there is a sense in which the AP can use past spins to "predict"  future spins, but the underlying logic is quite different, and anyway this is only a very minor part of the procedure;  it is NOT the main means by which bias is detected.

And regarding your second point, as I said, no serious AP who specializes in biased wheels will rely solely on collecting numbers to determine the bias. Most people think that bias just means a tilted wheel, so the ball ends up in one sector more often than another, but there are many other kinds of bias which are NOT detectable by the casino. The kind of bias used by VB players, for example, can not be detected merely by looking at the winning numbers, and therefore will not be picked up by the casino's monitoring technology.

If you have detected a bias, not merely by looking at the numbers, but by other means, then in some cases it's appropriate to verify that the numbers coming out are consistent with the hypothesis of bias. For example, if you have visually detected that a pocket or number of pockets tend to deflect the ball, due to a defect, then an examination of a suitable sized sample of the winning numbers will either confirm or refute this hypothesis.

Most have a very simplistic idea of bias, that the ball ends up in a sector which will be revealed just by looking at the winning numbers. But if it's that easy, obviously the casino can take steps to eliminate it, which they have. This is why most think that AP may have worked in the past, but not any more. The truth though, is that modern wheels present just as much opportunity for AP as they did in the past, but the biases are more subtle, and NOT revealed just by looking at winning numbers.

There are MANY factors which can result in a bias, which is sometimes only temporary.
 

Jesper

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1141
  • Thanked: 549 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: The flawed Advantage Play System (by scepticus)
« Reply #12 on: June 06, 2015, 08:18:35 AM »
Which playable bias Wheel, do not show up it in theire history?  Bias means there are not random outcome, and some numbers has +EV.
 

scepticus

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1805
  • Thanked: 379 times
Re: The flawed Advantage Play System (by scepticus)
« Reply #13 on: June 06, 2015, 09:44:22 AM »
Mike
Twist and turn how you may you cannot argue, at one and the same time, that the wheel has no memory but also has a memory.No memory when Method players use them but has a memory when APs use them.And you guys have still to tell me HOW MANY past spins are needed to verify your bias. The fact is you need as many as you say Method players need - multi thousands. And you guys can find them in ONE night ? If you identify  a particular favoured area  there is then no need to use wheel tracking because you have already found what you are looking for.
Why  snigger at triggers when you guys use triggers when you WAIT until you have found a biased wheel ?
I too use "educated " guesses. Look up my Nine Blocks and 4 gives three and you will find that these have
been mathematically calculated to do" what it says on the tin ".
Frankly, I don't care what you, or anyone else bets. But , like many in the forum , I object to the sneering by some  ( many ?) AP guys. As kav says, there is no need for it. Sometimes, though, it  needs rebutting.
You AP guys stick to what you do but ,please, don't imply that we are idiots  because we don't agree that AP is the ONLY way to go.As you and I agree - we really are only guessing.   
 

Mike

  • Veteran Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 557
  • Thanked: 23 times
Re: The flawed Advantage Play System (by scepticus)
« Reply #14 on: June 06, 2015, 12:57:12 PM »
scepticus,

I honestly don't think I'm sneering at system players. Real may be (in fact, is!) but as I said in another post, you don't have to be retarded to believe that systems are a valid way to play. Many intelligent people are taken in by them. D'Alembert, who came up with the D'Alembert progression, was a philosopher and mathematician who made many important contributions to mathematics and science, but he also believed that the probability of an event changed the longer it failed to materialize.

I don't have time right now, and I'm going to be away for a few days (back next wednesday) but when I return I'll start a new thread on the difference between system play and AP, and explain in detail why the latter is valid and the former is not.

When I said AP is a form of "guessing", I only meant that we do not KNOW, in the sense of being able to predict exactly in which sector the ball will land, every time. But the methods certainly do tip the odds in the player's favor, so you have a true advantage, which cannot be claimed by systems.

Quote
Which playable bias Wheel, do not show up it in theire history?  Bias means there are not random outcome, and some numbers has +EV.

For example, in the case of VB, the speed at which the ball is released, plus other factors, will determine roughly where it will fall from the track, so if you know this, and also know that the cone is slightly distorted, this gives you better "guess" at where the ball is likely to end up. There is a bias, but it is not discernible from just looking at the winning numbers. There is no definite sector which is hitting more often than others, but the bias, together with visual ballistics, can give you an edge.