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Author Topic: The long shot 1296X  (Read 2567 times)

Jesper

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The long shot 1296X
« on: May 29, 2015, 11:58:35 AM »
I use  sometimes play  parlay straight up. It is a real long shot, but have a reasonable chanse to work, if there is a lot of bullits.

I do not endorse trying it, expect you can lose a few hundred £,$ or € without problem.

This time I used two numbers, starting with 1 cent on each. When I got a hit, I parlay. Most of the cases of course it will miss. Then a chip is added on each number after a parlay miss.
After about 500 spins  increase some the adding after a missing parlay.

The downdrown was about 320 Euro, which is about the profit the session of  871 spins gave.

The ground bet was 0.6 on each number on the double hit, which makes 20.16 in the parlay and
a payout of  725.76.

I use to work better, the profits may have been the same if I kept the single  winnings.



 

Reyth

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Re: The long shot 1296X
« Reply #1 on: May 29, 2015, 07:24:29 PM »
I wonder if a progression table can be made to refine the "after about 500 spins increase the betting" and somehow improve the statistics.

I suspect the table limits will eventually interfere...
 

Jesper

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Re: The long shot 1296X
« Reply #2 on: May 30, 2015, 05:06:27 AM »
In the casino there I am playing, the table limit is 200 Euro, which means the max bet is 200/36, a few cents more than 5.50 Euro.  The rise of the bets is allways not high, as the payout is 1296 times.
When reaching 5.50 Euro it has to be 2000 + spins, and  up to 2000 Euro back. If the table limit is a problem, the player would be able to risk a large bankroll.  A parlay of  a bit over 5.5 Euro will
gain 200 for the last bet, and 7200 pay out.

The chance we really take is a double hit rather early. Even with a start bet of just one cent, the bankroll need to be a few hundred Euro.

I have sporadic bet 5.50 in a trial for a parlay, and in the last two years  managed it twice, once on the 67 th spins. This to start with 5.50 is like a lottery, with better odds.

A parlay can be don on any bet, like streets, and get a payout of 144x.
 

Reyth

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Re: The long shot 1296X
« Reply #3 on: May 30, 2015, 05:51:37 AM »
Well this sounds pretty freaking powerful.  Any chance you can lay out betting examples like:

0) Bet 1 and 2
1) Bet 1 unit for 17 spins
2) Raise 1 unit for 8 spins

And then give an example of how a parlay would work?
 

Jesper

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Re: The long shot 1296X
« Reply #4 on: May 30, 2015, 09:16:23 AM »
I could, but I think it is Chance if we get an early hit.  What I have seen is too many number do not help, it eats hard on the bankroll and it looks like we hit many times once. A hit parlay around 300-400 spins pay out best.

Double hit happens 1/37, but WHICH the chance is as three in a row any or two particular. Test it you will see it will over 50% of the sessions be a double with 100000 units bank ( 1 cent). If you win the Three first sessions it is money for a try longer. I would say stop at 300 Euro loss, if you do not have won some before.
But this issues depends on the player, some can effort higher risks.

I Think most 4 numbers.  If you have any betselection you think work, use it and remember it is a parlay, which means two hits and the winnings from the first as bet on the other, and it do not need to be the same number, or even in a row.

Instead of buy a lotto ticket (6 dollars) I use about once a week bet 5  Euro, and if it hit, next time maxbet 200. The chance is far better than the lotto ticket. Horse race is often many parlays.

Some can not understand I got a big  win using pennies. It is possible if you succeed a bold parlay.

Grinding gives a lot of winnings, but the bank use to win at the end. The only good grinder is reverse grand martingale, near sure winnings but very slow, and needs NOZ Wheel.

If we have -EV a bold positive progression is better, we use to see we hit twice.

Even with 10 Euro we can use bold parlay, flat bet for 300 spins one cent and the rest two cent, one parlay make profit, and it last several 100 spins.

I prefere to lose what I can effort many times and sometimes get a big win. The times we are not lucky small bets, and when it change parlays make the larger winnings.
 

Jesper

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Re: The long shot 1296X
« Reply #5 on: May 30, 2015, 09:24:11 AM »
Well this sounds pretty freaking powerful.  Any chance you can lay out betting examples like:

0) Bet 1 and 2
1) Bet 1 unit for 17 spins
2) Raise 1 unit for 8 spins

And then give an example of how a parlay would work?

Did not see your numbers. It is over 1200X, which means bet one cent until you miss a parlay. Then add one chip.  You need to be 1000 back Before you have to raise it. 

I increase the bet adding two after a miss if I am very back, 500-1200 spins.
 

Reyth

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Re: The long shot 1296X
« Reply #6 on: May 30, 2015, 11:46:49 AM »
You know, a single number MUST hit on the 456th spin.



Can you do anything with that information?
 

Jesper

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Re: The long shot 1296X
« Reply #7 on: May 30, 2015, 01:16:04 PM »
You know, a single number MUST hit on the 456th spin.



Can you do anything with that information?
[/quote

Please explain more!  A single number can be absent 1006 times.  I know it from my own play. This is terrible rare, but it will in a larger sample be longer. A double hit can be from 1 attempt to never, but in the real World it can be between(1) 49 to 3488 spins. The 34888 spins can be handled by a bankroll few can have.
 

Jesper

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Re: The long shot 1296X
« Reply #8 on: May 30, 2015, 02:48:29 PM »
It looks like a  system windows from a Computer, which I used before 1984, and the switch to a Mac using more readable interface. You have to explain what it is and what you want me to answer.

Every time it is a spin a number fall (easy) , we want to hit twice (not so easy) .

The statistic will not help, due to the variance is huge, you can win a lot if lucky in a day, and it may take a terrible time, I do not have belief in knowing the future, and do not own a crystal globe, do not employ future tellers, I play and see. I do get some studies in statistic, but know it is just of minor help, it tells the odds. The odds is near the payout, be lucky to get an early hit make the win.
 

Reyth

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Re: The long shot 1296X
« Reply #9 on: May 30, 2015, 06:45:01 PM »
Well on the worst possible day, you will bet 1 number and it will take 456 times for it to hit once and ANOTHER 456 times for it to hit the second time.

This output shows how many times out of 15.56 million a number will hit on each spin number from 1 to 455.  There are no misses after 455; e.g. on 1 spin 11,337 numbers out of 15.56 million will hit -- that's a 0.0007282409355297685% chance but notice on the 455th spin only 1 number hadn't hit yet out of 15.56 million spins and there is no number that takes 456 spins to hit.
« Last Edit: May 31, 2015, 07:29:48 AM by Reyth »
 

Jesper

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Re: The long shot 1296X
« Reply #10 on: May 31, 2015, 06:32:33 AM »
I have in real play once got 1001 spins before a hit on a number. That time I bet a cent 1001 times, and add one  chip on a hit without a parlay. It was possible to catch up after a lot of more spins. They use not to sleep so long many times in a row.

We can test a million spins, but still we do not know which of the large numbers of possible streams will show in the play. It is possible to calculate the probability for all kinds of  permutations using a calculator.

Doubles are rater common, but as there are 37 numbers it can that we see all expect those we bet.
 

Reyth

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Re: The long shot 1296X
« Reply #11 on: May 31, 2015, 07:30:39 AM »
That one time it happened, do you remember which casino you were in and which table?
 

Reyth

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Re: The long shot 1296X
« Reply #12 on: May 31, 2015, 07:34:34 AM »
We can test a million spins, but still we do not know which of the large numbers of possible streams will show in the play. It is possible to calculate the probability for all kinds of  permutations using a calculator.

Well my thoughts are:

1) Its pretty incredible that you can survive as long as 456 spins without going broke or hitting the table limits and yet be profitable!?

2) Because we know the percentages, a strategy can be devised by spin # to optimize your results into a workable system for generating profits.
« Last Edit: May 31, 2015, 07:36:33 AM by Reyth »
 

Jesper

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Re: The long shot 1296X
« Reply #13 on: May 31, 2015, 01:29:50 PM »
500 sleeper is possible to overcome, and I would not rise the bet until a hit.  It may take time.
I do not use a bot nowdays, when I did I bet one number and progress on a hit. It could take several  1000:s spins to get it right. No risk for table limit (1 to 20000). It could go down very much, but I never busted. 

You can test, running one number and martingale it (just every hit a progression)

The NOZ allow a session for  max 24 hours now, at that time I could run for days.
I do not regard it more risky than most of methods.  The variance even out in the longer run.
If the wheel has not fair odds, it would make a large difference.
It is of course not 100% sure.