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Author Topic: a little help  (Read 2532 times)

Trilobite

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a little help
« on: May 26, 2015, 09:04:26 AM »
Anyone hear willing to help with some maths?
I would appreciate some help with the following scenario,
Playing a single zero wheel and betting on 1 dozen over a 15 step up as you lose progression, mathematically how often can I expect to bust, or lose 15 times in a row?


 

Dane

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Re: a little help
« Reply #1 on: May 26, 2015, 11:50:04 AM »
Anyone hear willing to help with some maths?
I would appreciate some help with the following scenario,
Playing a single zero wheel and betting on 1 dozen over a 15 step up as you lose progression, mathematically how often can I expect to bust, or lose 15 times in a row?

Math Open Reference helped me: (25/37)^15 = 0.0027777.
This is rather close to 1/359,
So if you made one attempt every day,
you should expect to go bust  once within a year.
UP as you lose would bring you DOWN in the long run!
                                       
 

kav

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Re: a little help
« Reply #2 on: May 26, 2015, 01:02:25 PM »
Thanks for the answer Dane.
Just to point out, in case it isn't obvious, that 0.00277 = 0.28% So one has 99,72% rate of success.
 

scepticus

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Re: a little help
« Reply #3 on: May 26, 2015, 02:51:18 PM »
True, Kav, True. He will , in all probability, win very often but I think he should think very carefully before betting real money on it. The Reward to Risk ratio  is  too great particularly if he is thinking of using a Martingale. Frankly, I suspect that many who have started on it never stay the full course .
I think there are better ways to bet on roulette.
Like you, though, I think there is too much emphasis on the Maths of roulette. It is only a guide- a tool to be used.
A much greater problem is the uncertainty of outcome  of each spin . Bluff and bluster or theorise how they may
NO ONE can predict with certainty  the outcome of an uncertain  future event.  We can only speculate and speculation IS gambling.
 

kav

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Re: a little help
« Reply #4 on: May 26, 2015, 03:37:15 PM »
yes.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: a little help
« Reply #5 on: May 27, 2015, 07:31:48 AM »
It is just what scepticus wrote, the maths of the roulette is a tool. 15 Bets in a row is a system. Every short run sample has about 50% chance on a loss or profit. 15 Spins are to less in this case. Has a dozen not appear for more than 10 spins, I expext a profit in the next 15 spins.
A strategy can beat the roulette.
The roulette must spin. aplayer may play!!!
 

Dane

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Re: a little help
« Reply #6 on: May 27, 2015, 08:53:06 AM »
It is just what scepticus wrote, the maths of the roulette is a tool. 15 Bets in a row is a system. Every short run sample has about 50% chance on a loss or profit. 15 Spins are to less in this case. Has a dozen not appear for more than 10 spins, I expext a profit in the next 15 spins.
A strategy can beat the roulette.
The roulette must spin. aplayer may play!!!


The tool (in this case: Math Open Reference) tells me that (25/37)^10 = 0.02.
This is just the probability that ONE particular chosen dozen does not appear in just ten spins.
What happens in the following 15 spins is completely independent of these ten spins  or ten million spins in the past. The Wheel has no memory. The ball has no memory.  Mathematicians claim that many gamblers are victims of "GAMBLERS FALLACY".  You may not believe them.  But a negative progression might hit you in the end.

 

Trilobite

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Re: a little help
« Reply #7 on: May 29, 2015, 08:42:25 AM »
Thank you gents for your helpful and interesting replies.
If the chance then of a bust is around 1 in 360, a 15 step negative progression could see you lose your bankroll before enough chips have been won. With a little luck on your side the variance on a 360/1 shot could mean you don’t lose well beyond the 360/1 chance, but the risk is unacceptable.

After considering your replies and the records I have in front of me, I concede that a 15 step progression is a sink hole potentially ready to swallow you up.
« Last Edit: May 29, 2015, 08:48:11 AM by Trilobite »
 

scepticus

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Re: a little help
« Reply #8 on: May 30, 2015, 05:05:38 AM »
I think you are thinking along the right lines Trilo- in choosing a 2 /1 shot rather than an even- money shot.I found even - money shots a bit of a grind except when parlaying them. I think many ( most ?  ) people prefer even- money shots because  they produce more "wins " so feel them as a comfort zone. I think we should concentrate on profit and I think higher odds bets lead to better profits. No matter which way we choose to bet I think
we need to focus primarily on bet selection.
That said we all have our own opinions on betting and you will find many different ways in this forum .The only advice I can give you here is -THINK for yourself but use free versions
to try out your ideas before betting real money . Patience ,allied to confidence, is needed for successful gambling - in any sphere !