Author Topic: What if...  (Read 9537 times)

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dobbelsteen

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Re: What if...
« Reply #30 on: May 22, 2015, 12:53:05 PM »
A strategy has no HE. The roulette has an EV.
Gamblers lose due to the HE, players can be succesfully.

There are no differences between a sequenc of a true roulette wheel , a true RNG or a pseudo RNG.
The distibution of the numbers on the wheel or the table has no influence on the random sequence.
These features I have also empiric ascertained
 

BlueAngel

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Re: What if...
« Reply #31 on: May 23, 2015, 02:21:57 PM »

Quote
But for now just theoretically imagine this. You play EC-s and you have betselection which somehow gives you perfectly balanced results like LWLWLWLW0LWLW0LWL... all the time. Now you would still face zero from time to time of course and you are nothing but the looser who doesn't have an edge (for some). But would you care for that when you just need to apply mild progression and win every session? NO.

After enough trials, the house edge is the main reason that players lose.  Furthermore, the house edge isn't just present on the zeros.  It exists on all of the numbers.  This is easily demonstrated mathematically as well.

Quote
Could you...?


Yes. 



So what are you waiting for?!
You know where to find me,don't you?!
 

Real

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Re: What if...
« Reply #32 on: May 24, 2015, 06:52:34 PM »
BlueAngel,

Expected effect of variance on an even money game  (simplified) = ( + or -) x (three standard deviations) x (square root of the number of spins)
 
Expected effect of the house edge on a double zero wheel = ( -5.26%) x (number of spins)
 
Now after, 5000 spins on the double zero wheel which has the bigger effect on your bankroll?
 
  Expected effect of variance  = (+ or -) 3 x (Square root of 5000) = winning or losing around 212.13 units
  Expected effect of the house edge = -5.26% x 5000 = losing around 263 units.
 
As you can see, the house edge is the main reason players lose after they've played enough spins.
It does not matter whether you play all of the spins in one setting, or whether you play them off and on over several days or weeks.
The house edge eats away at your bankroll, until you reach the point where even a three standard deviation fluctuation is not enough to climb back up to even.
 
   -Real
« Last Edit: May 24, 2015, 06:55:01 PM by Real »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: What if...
« Reply #33 on: May 24, 2015, 09:39:57 PM »
BlueAngel,

Expected effect of variance on an even money game  (simplified) = ( + or -) x (three standard deviations) x (square root of the number of spins)
 
Expected effect of the house edge on a double zero wheel = ( -5.26%) x (number of spins)
 
Now after, 5000 spins on the double zero wheel which has the bigger effect on your bankroll?
 
  Expected effect of variance  = (+ or -) 3 x (Square root of 5000) = winning or losing around 212.13 units
  Expected effect of the house edge = -5.26% x 5000 = losing around 263 units.
 
As you can see, the house edge is the main reason players lose after they've played enough spins.
It does not matter whether you play all of the spins in one setting, or whether you play them off and on over several days or weeks.
The house edge eats away at your bankroll, until you reach the point where even a three standard deviation fluctuation is not enough to climb back up to even.
 
   -Real

My sessions are never 5000 outcomes,thus making your observation obsolete.
What I know is that EVERY time I start and finish a casino session there will be an unbalance,EVERY time!
I've never experienced a session of 100 or so outcomes to conclude in 50 for one EC and 50 for the other,NEVER!
 

Real

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Re: What if...
« Reply #34 on: May 24, 2015, 11:20:31 PM »
Quote
My sessions are never 5000 outcomes,thus making your observation obsolete.What I know is that EVERY time I start and finish a casino session there will be an unbalance,EVERY time!I've never experienced a session of 100 or so outcomes to conclude in 50 for one EC and 50 for the other,NEVER!

You only play for 50 spins at a time?

So in short, what you're stating above is that you don't gamble much?  This would explain a great deal, as to why you think the way you do...  you have very little actual experience.

The real truth is that it doesn't matter whether or not you play for 50 spins at a time, off and on over several sessions, or 5000 spins in one setting.  Once you've accumulated a total of 5000 spins, on the double zero wheel, the house edge usually becomes the dominant factor as to why you will be a loser, and will remain a net loser.  Up until that point, variance is a slightly bigger player. 

Sorry, just the facts.

-Real
« Last Edit: May 24, 2015, 11:28:39 PM by Real »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: What if...
« Reply #35 on: May 24, 2015, 11:42:32 PM »
Quote
My sessions are never 5000 outcomes,thus making your observation obsolete.What I know is that EVERY time I start and finish a casino session there will be an unbalance,EVERY time!I've never experienced a session of 100 or so outcomes to conclude in 50 for one EC and 50 for the other,NEVER!

You only play for 50 spins at a time?

So in short, what you're stating above is that you don't gamble much?  This would explain a great deal, as to why you think the way you do...  you have very little actual experience.

The real truth is that it doesn't matter whether or not you play for 50 spins at a time, off and on over several sessions, or 5000 spins in one setting.  Once you've accumulated a total of 5000 spins, on the double zero wheel, the house edge usually becomes the dominant factor as to why you will be a loser, and will remain a net loser.  Up until that point, variance is a slightly bigger player. 

Sorry, just the facts.

-Real

This is the "truth" you want to see,but not the WHOLE truth.
From the other hand,I don't want and don't have to explain you why I'm winning consistently.
You may think whatever you want,this cannot affect my reality.
 

Real

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Re: What if...
« Reply #36 on: May 25, 2015, 12:10:14 AM »
Trying to gamble off and on in the short term over several years is about as effective as trying to only live in the short term.  In the end,  death is inevitable.
 

BlueAngel

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Re: What if...
« Reply #37 on: May 25, 2015, 12:46:35 AM »
Trying to gamble off and on in the short term over several years is about as effective as trying to only live in the short term.  In the end,  death is inevitable.

All death is certain but on the meantime we try to forget it.