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Author Topic: The Kavouras Challenge  (Read 3909 times)

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Bayes

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The Kavouras Challenge
« on: May 11, 2015, 09:44:25 AM »
http://www.roulette30.com/2013/10/roulette-house-edge-strategy.html#6

Quote
THE KAVOURAS CHALLENGE

Show me a system that would win if there was no house edge. I dare anyone to show me a system that could beat roulette if there was an edge in favor of the player!
Say you didn't lose your money when 0 comes, and you gain a chip bonus for every 100 spins played. Now show me a system that will win with these favorable conditions!

I did this some time ago and posted the results in fhe form of a graph. No house edge and 1 chip bonus every 100 spins represents an advantage of 1% in your favor. You don't need any "system" under these conditions, just bet any even chance mindlessly.

Can it guarantee a profit after 1000 spins?  almost certainly, but what is absolutely certain is that the longer you play, the more you'll make.

My post and graph were completely ignored, for some reason. But I think Kav should remove the challenge, or at least acknowledge that it is easily met.


 

kav

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Re: The Kavouras Challenge
« Reply #1 on: May 11, 2015, 10:47:47 AM »
Hello Slacker,

Thanks for bringing this up, because I stay firmly on my challenge. And thanks for taking the time to read it because I consider it one of the most important and original pages of the whole Roulette30
The challenge however includes this most important rule:
Quote
[...]Hey, not a  system that will win after 5 millions spins, but a system that I could  play say for 10 days, 100 spins per day and be 100% sure that in total I will come ahead after the last day. This means a system that will generate  profit in real life. [...]

Please tell me your specific system and I will show you that even with these favorable conditions there is a probable spin sequence that will make it produce a loss after 10x100=1000 spins.

By probable I mean a relatively "normal" spins sequence, not an extreme sequence like 35 Blacks in a row or 8 repetitions of the same number.

Furthermore, in case I can not show you a probable spin sequence that makes your system fail in the favorable conditions, then I will transform it into a winning system under the unfavorable normal conditions (zero etc.)

These are the conditions or the Kavouras challenge; "almost certainly" does not qualify for an answer to this challenge. Because this is exactly my point. No matter the little advantage in favor or against the player we can not have 100% certainty in the realistic span of 1000 spins.

So the main conditions for this challenge are:
  • not "millions" of spins but 1000 spins (even less would be better)
  • 100% certainty of profit
  • IF such a system exists under the described favorable conditions (1%), it can be transformed to produce profit under unfavorable conditions (-2,7%).
PS: "Systems" like betting in both Red and Black and just wait for the bonus chip are not valid answers. This is the same as not playing at all.
PS2: The reason why I feel confident to pose this challenge is that the (negative) variance can greatly exceed the 1% player advantage.
« Last Edit: May 11, 2015, 11:17:46 AM by kav »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: The Kavouras Challenge
« Reply #2 on: May 11, 2015, 03:04:19 PM »

I accept this challenge under some specific conditions:

1) The total of the spins should be 1128 instead of 1000
2) I will only flat bet for the 1110 spins
3) I will bet 1110 spins from the total of 1128 spins
4) I want the 0,not even le partage or en prison,just the standard rules

What would be my reward for doing so??
« Last Edit: May 11, 2015, 03:16:42 PM by BlueAngel »
 

kav

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Re: The Kavouras Challenge
« Reply #3 on: May 11, 2015, 03:45:10 PM »

I accept this challenge under some specific conditions:
1) The total of the spins should be 1128 instead of 1000
2) I will only flat bet for the 1110 spins
3) I will bet 1110 spins from the total of 1128 spins
4) I want the 0,not even le partage or en prison,just the standard rules
What would be my reward for doing so??
If you have a 100% certainty winning system you reward is obviously becoming filthy rich. You are very welcome to post it in a new topic. It deserves its own topic. But this topic is about something totally different. Thanks
 

Bayes

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Re: The Kavouras Challenge
« Reply #4 on: May 11, 2015, 04:03:08 PM »
BlueAngel,

I don't think you've understood the terms of the challenge. 100% guarantee of profit means that you should look at the worst case scenario, in terms of variance, in the 1000 spins (no house edge, with one chip added per 100 spins - 10 chips bonus in all).

Flat betting won't cut it, but some kind of progression might. I have a few ideas for this, but in the meantime here are my results for flat betting on singles, splits, streets, quads, sixlines, dozens, and ECs (bonus chips added).

I've assumed a negative variance of -3 standard deviations over the 1000 spins and calculated the returns and losses for each of the bets. Even though -3 SD covers 99.7% of scenarios, it can get worse than that, so in a sense I'm being a little generous here.

The formula for variance is:

W = NP ± Z × sqrt(NPQ)

N = number of bets (1000 in this case)
W = number of wins
Z = z-score (in this case -3)
P = probability of a win
Q = probability of a loss

Having found the number of wins for each group of numbers, you can then multiply by the payouts to get the return. I wrote a little program to do all this and here are the results:

BET        RETURN     LOSSES

single     442.000      -558
split         604.000      -396
street      694.000      -306
quad       739.000      -261
sixline    796.000      -204
dozen     874.000      -126
even       914.000      -86
 

Bayes

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Re: The Kavouras Challenge
« Reply #5 on: May 11, 2015, 04:14:56 PM »
The challenge is a bit pointless, really, because if you did have an edge, no matter how small, then eventually it will overcome any variance, and the condition that it should win in 1000 spins is completely arbitrary. But it does raise the question of just how many bets are needed in order to guarantee a profit, given the other conditions remain the same. I'll look into it.
 

Real

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Re: The Kavouras Challenge
« Reply #6 on: May 11, 2015, 04:21:46 PM »
Kav,

I claim an edge OVER the casino, and not just a little one.

Perhaps it's time I show people how to beat the wheel, since so many people are wasting there lives trapped in the gambler's fallacy... while foolishly trying to beat the game.

I will create a thread.

-Real

« Last Edit: May 11, 2015, 05:19:08 PM by Real »
 

Bayes

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Re: The Kavouras Challenge
« Reply #7 on: May 11, 2015, 05:33:07 PM »
Great! Looking forward to it.
 

kav

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Re: The Kavouras Challenge
« Reply #8 on: May 11, 2015, 05:46:39 PM »
The challenge is a bit pointless, really, because if you did have an edge, no matter how small, then eventually it will overcome any variance, and the condition that it should win in 1000 spins is completely arbitrary. But it does raise the question of just how many bets are needed in order to guarantee a profit, given the other conditions remain the same. I'll look into it.
You make some good points. Unfortunately, it seems you are one of the few who have understood the point of my challenge. Sure the 1000 spins may seem arbitrary; but hey! it is MY challenge :-)

Btw, I deleted some posts that were distracting from the core of the discussion. If one feels he has something of value to say in general about beating roulette, one can start a new topic. Each topic has a specific focus. Please let's stay focused.
« Last Edit: May 11, 2015, 05:56:27 PM by kav »
 

kav

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Re: The Kavouras Challenge
« Reply #9 on: May 11, 2015, 05:50:46 PM »
Kav,

I claim an edge OVER the casino, and not just a little one.

Perhaps it's time I show people how to beat the wheel, since so many people are wasting there lives trapped in the gambler's fallacy... while foolishly trying to beat the game.

I will create a thread.
-Real
At last! We are all looking forward to it. I understand you have great knowledge and experience about the game. Time to open some eyes!