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Author Topic: 30 out of 100  (Read 10858 times)

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BlueAngel

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30 out of 100
« on: April 18, 2015, 09:38:16 PM »


Perhaps a better question would be: "HOW I could win more times than what I'm losing?" rather than how much I should bet in order to win.
By increasing and/or decreasing bets,you are NOT changing the odds.
By saying that I expect to win 30 bets out of 100,this does NOT determine in which turn I'm going to have my wins and loses.

Those 2 major facts are the reasons why most of the progressions fail in the long term,just because they aim to win in a very certain way,a specific turn,sequence.
Besides, any kind of progression is secondary element,the fundamental always must be HOW I could win more times than my losing ones,in other words a method of bet selection.

An example about the turn of expected wins:
Let's say I have the very modest expectation to win 30 bets out of 100 in total.
Would this be the same for our progression to experience 70 loses during the first 70 spins and 30 wins on the remaining in comparison with 10 wins during the first 30 spins,then 10 more till the 60th spin and another 10 winning bets from 91st till 100th spin??

It's a question everyone has to answer,who's considering applying any kind of progression!


 

scepticus

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Re: 30 out of 100
« Reply #1 on: April 18, 2015, 11:23:07 PM »
I am in your camp, Blue Angel. We should focus more on WHAT to bet before considering a staking plan.I am not wholly against progressions but they do depend - ultimately - on your win rate . Some time ago, on another forum , HG strategies was flogging a progression strategy which guaranteed profit over 57 ( or 59 ? ) spins IF you could win 19 times ANYWHERE in those 57 spins - on a 2/1 shot. Fine if you  COULD guarantee 19 wins in 57 spins but otherwise a ruined table betting  bank ! I much prefer small sessions using level stakes.Losses may be more frequent than when betting progressions but ,since the losses are less, the recovery is swifter. And less stress on the heart !
 

kav

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Re: 30 out of 100
« Reply #2 on: April 19, 2015, 05:44:29 AM »
What you do not get is the thinking process.
These questions you ask have been asked a million times.

In order to approach a problem from a new perspective you have to change the questions. Even if they seem strange or unrelated.

Then you try to compose a new answer based on the answers to the "new questions".

It is a great evidence of narrow-mindness that every thread would turn into the same old discussion. It is because of the difficulty we have to approach the game from a new angle. We are fixated in the same questions which are mostly dead ends.

If you have a big problem try to slit it up into little ones. Yes, they may seem unimportant or out of topic, but they will help you go further in the long run.
 
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scepticus

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Re: 30 out of 100
« Reply #3 on: April 19, 2015, 12:48:41 PM »
What you do not get is the thinking process.
These questions you ask have been asked a million times.

In order to approach a problem from a new perspective you have to change the questions. Even if they seem strange or unrelated.

Then you try to compose a new answer based on the answers to the "new questions".

It is a great evidence of narrow-mindness that every thread would turn into the same old discussion. It is because of the difficulty we have to approach the game from a new angle. We are fixated in the same questions which are mostly dead ends.

If you have a big problem try to slit it up into little ones. Yes, they may seem unimportant or out of topic, but they will help you go further in the long run.

But  if our " thinking" kav, gives us the answer we are looking for.If our regurgitating old ideas leads us to a winning strategy- and mine's does - why not ? Maths exists independently of roulette but roulette does not exist independently of maths. Roulette is, if nothing else, a game of numbers .
Why is it " narrow- mindedness " to discuss the maths relating to roulette when this forum's ethos is that everyone is entitled to express his/her opinion ? So far as I can see there are many posts that do not discuss maths so there is a mixture of ideas - and that is all to the good so far as I am concerned .
 

kav

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Re: 30 out of 100
« Reply #4 on: April 19, 2015, 02:21:26 PM »
Hi Scepticus,

Of course everyone is entitled to his opinion. But the first post in this thread was originally a reply to my question about how to limit your winnings. In this context, turning a "new" question into an "old" subject, it shows narrowness.

So far, whoever mentions maths too often, has never related it to a specific, clearly described method. That's why, now, when I hear "maths" and "probability" too often, I know that more often than not, it serves to elevate the posters profile to a "scientific" level, than offer any new insights or clear methods.

Belgian's thread, is the best I ever saw in a forum to relate to a step by step, rational discussion and search for a practical method. That's why I like this thread and its sister thread so much.
 
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scepticus

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Re: 30 out of 100
« Reply #5 on: April 19, 2015, 03:40:54 PM »


I wasn't aware that this thread was an answer to your original question so was replying to THIS thread. I thought that my 9 column block "Double Dozen" ( parlay ) idea was clear enough but only if you think about it. I claim that it is a 1 in 4 bet which when won pays 7/2 so clearly contradicts the usual perception of mathematicians that we cannot beat the odds .If you think I need to give an actual illustration then I will.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2017, 02:28:37 AM by kav »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: 30 out of 100
« Reply #6 on: April 26, 2015, 03:50:18 AM »
I have just returned from one of my local casinos.
The session today was a DISASTER!
I was trying a new progression which I've developed with minor bets on airball roulette.
Only this kind of roulette has a minimum 1 Euro bet,so after testing with results from live tables for a few days (without money),I've decided to give it a go with as lower bets as possible.
Today was the second day of testing the particular progression and there won't be any more testing regarding this progression and probably for any kind of "outside bets" and progressions on EC's.
The first day at the casino I've won but was not an easy one...
The bet selection during the first day was to check the last 12 results (this is how far back the screen shows) and select the EC with the less appearances,regardless of their sequence.
So I've seen HIGH numbers were only 4 out of the 12 last results and that's where I've started my betting session.
I had 25 wins out of 63 bets,a 25/38 win/loss ratio,the highest bet reached 27 Euros while I was -89 Euros down in the hole.
Non the less I've managed to survive and win a unit at the end for that session,during any visit at the casinos I play several sessions,how many depends from the duration of each session.
So my principle of the bet selection was to pick the Even Chance with the less appearances and follow it till the end.
Have you noticed the irony?? The name is EC (even chances) they should rename it to UNEVEN Chances!
During the 38 loses out of 63 results,there was also a losing streak of 12 Low numbers,if we count all together,4 out of 12 which I've noticed before I start betting plus 25 out of 63,we have a total of 29 High Versus 46 Low,which means 38.66 % appearances for something which in theory should occur approximately 48.65 % of all time.
I've reached the edge but didn't fall off the cliff,I've played with fire but I didn't get burned and I thought I've seen it all till today...!!!
So today I had the incredible luck to encounter a session with 8 wins versus 26 loses, 8 out of 34 times I won an EC bet,what an IRONY to call it EVEN Chance,don't you think?
So eventually I lost 97 Euros for testing my newly developed progression,BUT today,which was the second day of testing,I've learned my lesson from the previous day and I didn't select the EC with the less appearances but to follow the last decision in order to get advantage of the UNEVEN Chances and guess what happened! :o
It's NOT about the money and/or the time I've invested,BUT there IS a VERY IMPORTANT aftermath here!
What is it?
I think you can figure out for yourselves.
The betting progression doesn't really matters after all and if you think: "what if you had 500 instead of 100?",
then ask yourselves this question: DOES IT WORTH TO TRY WIN A UNIT BY RISKING 500 UNITS??!!
If your question is YES,then I have NOTHING to speak with you because we have COMPLETELY different mentality!
« Last Edit: April 26, 2015, 11:40:48 AM by kav »
 

petespin

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Re: 30 out of 100
« Reply #7 on: April 26, 2015, 05:55:25 AM »
if understood well u play at airball roulette and u used progression as well , airball plus progression =fatal combination BA ! ok i understand because the table limits do our lives hard , believe me i never like progressions well something smooth its acceptable [progress] but when u lose ,its,  hard to have self-control,and this the basic problem for the most of gamblers. cheers pete
« Last Edit: April 26, 2015, 11:41:05 AM by kav »
 

kav

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Re: 30 out of 100
« Reply #8 on: April 26, 2015, 11:53:25 AM »
I have just returned from one of my local casinos.
The session today was a DISASTER!
[...]

So my principle of the bet selection was to pick the Even Chance with the less appearances and follow it till the end.
Have you noticed the irony?? The name is EC (even chances) they should rename it to UNEVEN Chances!
[...]
The betting progression doesn't really matters after all and if you think: "what if you had 500 instead of 100?",
then ask yourselves this question: DOES IT WORTH TO TRY WIN A UNIT BY RISKING 500 UNITS??!!
If your question is YES,then I have NOTHING to speak with you because we have COMPLETELY different mentality!

BA,
What a great post!
  • You describe an actual visit to the casino
  • You describe how you played
  • You tell it like it is, without boasting winning
  • You complete your post with a conclusion
These are the kinds of posts I love.

Now my view:
I don't believe (as you say) that the problem is the progression
However later you contradict yourself by saying that [with this progression] it is not worth risking much to win 1 unit.
But if you bet much on Simple Chances you win much. That you only win 1 unit is an illusion. You just win the amount you bet.

I have my doubts about the fairness of airball or electronic or rapid roulette.
In fact I have my doubts about the fairness of any type of roulette including physical wheels. See this topic here about the fairness of physical roulette. This guy played in casino Rio in Greece.

Best,
Kav
 
 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: 30 out of 100
« Reply #9 on: April 26, 2015, 01:19:28 PM »
I was inquisitive what was the question of the Belgian threat. The question was “Can I make daily a profit of one credit with 200 spins”.
The answer is nobody can guarantee you a profit.

The question is not complete. Before you can  answer the question, you have to know the start bankroll, the system or the strategy. Do you have to wager every spin etc.?
With a strategy based on the short run theory and the equilibrium of the chances I guarantee a profit WITHIN 200 spins.
 

Bayes

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Re: 30 out of 100
« Reply #10 on: April 26, 2015, 02:08:11 PM »
The answer is nobody can guarantee you a profit.

I guarantee a profit WITHIN 200 spins.

Am I missing something, or is this a contradiction?

Or are you "nobody"? :-)

Unless of course your "guarantee" is qualified by the constraint that the outcomes conform to your theory, but if that's the case, you might as well say that "I guarantee you a profit provided you win more than you lose"!
 

kav

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Re: 30 out of 100
« Reply #11 on: April 26, 2015, 02:46:36 PM »
Have you noticed the irony?? The name is EC (even chances) they should rename it to UNEVEN Chances!

I like very much the point you make here! :-)
 

BlueAngel

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Re: 30 out of 100
« Reply #12 on: April 26, 2015, 07:07:16 PM »
In case you have not read carefully,I've won 8 out of 34 results,or 23.5% prediction accuracy which means 26 lost bets and from those 26 two losing streaks of eight.
Another session was 9 wins out of 32 results, 9 to 23  win/loss ratio or 28 % accuracy!
Also I've tried 3 different betting selections,to bet on the least shown EC constantly,to bet on the same as last EC and to bet one time for the sequence and one time for the intermittence,1 time for the repeat (same as last) and 1 for the opposite (break of streak)
The progression is to bet 1 unit on the first bet,if lost,the second is 2,if lose twice,the next bet becomes 4 units,that's a 3-step martingale,if lose 3 times in a row,each bet becomes one third of the negative balance,round up to the nearest whole number (not decimal)
Still you think it's possible to win with any kind of progression and betting selection?!
« Last Edit: April 26, 2015, 07:14:05 PM by BlueAngel »
 

kav

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Re: 30 out of 100
« Reply #13 on: April 26, 2015, 08:22:28 PM »

I think you raise two different questions:

1) Is roulette beatable when (for whatever reason) you are often presented with losing sequences? 28% accuracy in EC is LOW. so much so that it raises the question if the game is fair.

2) Can a progression help your game?
« Last Edit: March 10, 2017, 02:28:56 AM by kav »
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: 30 out of 100
« Reply #14 on: April 26, 2015, 08:41:28 PM »
This afternoon I visited my casino. I played about 5 quarters of an hour and won 130 credits. It was a Lucky day!!  My hit percentages was about 95% I used two tables and I think , I wagered about 80 spins.

The past week I met also the bad guy or devil.28 Consecutive no hits in the first dozen and 36 numbers in the secon and third dozen. This was a diaster and I lost alot of credits.

My statement is not a contra diction. With 200 credits I can garantee a profit within 200 spins. I can not predict how many spins a profitable sample takes