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scepticus

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scepticus

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Re: Scep' s roulette strategies .
« Reply #346 on: June 11, 2017, 05:53:51 PM »
As I have said before I play a form of Hit and Run.
During my last 3 visits I have played 23 tables. Won 190 chips but lost 178 for a profit of 12 chips .( well I did say that my profits were marginal  but my savings earn 0.75% ! )
Had planned for two tables each with a  40 chips bankroll   but had a bad start . Won 2 chips on first table but lost 40 on the second , took fright and decided on a 32 chip table bank. 
Average spins per table was just under 18 and there were 11 zeros which is about the right expectation .
 
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Sheridan44

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Re: Scep' s roulette strategies .
« Reply #347 on: June 11, 2017, 08:16:34 PM »
Scep....

Your general philosophy is something I have come to embrace. I worry more about the bottom end than the top. Sure, big rapid wins are nice, but I know the fall is coming (sometimes sooner than later).

I believe that one key element is the velocity of betting. Bot testers such as RX, RNG, Random Org, etc...tend to distort time to a more accelerated rate versus the real conditions within a casino or similar venues. One might be able to make thousands of mouse clicks (or program runs) within a few minutes, which when compared to actual wheel casino conditions that could take as long as 20 or more hours to replicate.

In such a wild and fast maelstrom , one could easily get caught up in emotion, making judgments they wouldn't ordinarily make at a more realistic pace. Opportunities to terminate with modest profits or smaller losses can easily be missed.
« Last Edit: June 12, 2017, 02:53:48 PM by Sheridan44 »
 
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scepticus

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Re: Scep' s roulette strategies .
« Reply #348 on: June 12, 2017, 12:04:12 AM »
Thanks Sheridan
I started this as a Test Run for my visit to Rhodes in September.  Minimums there are 2.5 Euros . As a Low Stakes recreational player I wanted a Dummy Run to see if I could bet with 2.5 unit chips on the Inside of the table - and if I would be prepared to risk the required amount for survival.
I agree with you that the main aim - as with professional gamblers everywhere - is to survive . I think it reasonable to think that if we can survive then  it is possible to profit.
The main obstacle to winning is not the unfair odds on offer but the randomness of the winning   numbers and NO ONE can foretell what these will be . The Long Run Theory does not take cognisance of variability so is clearly false as regards roulette . In addition Roulette is a multinomial problem and not a binomial problem as is generally considered and I have  yet to see it being considered as such.
Putting  money at Risk is a form of gambling and anyone who thinks otherwise is foolish  .
If we are to enjoy playing we need to think more carefully about what and when to bet .Boasting has no place in the casino - or this forum IMO . Reality can give   a painful bite  !
 
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scepticus

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Re: Scep' s roulette strategies .
« Reply #349 on: June 14, 2017, 11:22:10 PM »

                                              REASONABLE  EXPECTATIONS.
I can accept that gambling may  not  be a wise thing to do  but if I choose to gamble then that is MY choice and  I  don’t allow myself to be influenced by those who claim that I will lose my bankroll in some Airy - Fairy  Long Term . So far as roulette is concerned no one knows what future  numbers will be so no one can claim that my choice - or anyone’s choice - is doomed to failure . It is speculation only .
What I do is make bets which  I consider to  have reasonable  expectations of profit  but  I am aware that the randomness of the winning numbers will determine if I win - or lose.
An example of a bet with reasonable expectations is the one I used when winning £150 online .Using  £1 units and a £10 table bank.
I bet one of  the  3 dozens and , if that won , bet the resulting three units  on  the next  spin . When  that  also won   I collected  9 units .Odds of 8 / 1 .
I bet 1 unit  on the first 8 “ bets “ and 2 units on the 9th  “bet “  so one win in 9 “bets “ meant that I profited  -  and moved tables whenever I won .
( by a “bet” here I mean that BOTH dozens I put money on will win - the first being half of the 2 stage bet  )
Hit and Run  using the Nine Blocks to  choose which 2 dozens to  bet  . How ? By betting that the first block that won would win  again within the next 9 bets .
An Example .
If the  numbers in eight spins were
21 -31 -12 - 13 -22 -33 -1-14
then you mark down the number of the dozens they are in . So we have
(2--3 )- (1-2 )- (2-3 )- ( -1- 2  )
The first 4 are 2-3-1-2 so we look for the block with these 4 numbers in a downward line .
         
    1                              2                                     3
1 1 1  2 2 2 3 3 3     1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3        1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 
1 2 3 1  2 3 1 2 3     1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3        1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3
2 3 1 3 1 2 1  2  3    3 1 2 1 2 3 2 3 1        1 2 3 2 3 1 3 1 2
2 3 1 1 2 3 3 1  2     2 3 1 1 2 3 3 1 2        2 3 1 1 2 3 3 1 2
               4                            5                                    6       
 1 1 1 2 2 2  3 3 3  1 1 1 2 2 2  3 3 3           1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3
 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3   1 2 3 1 2 3  1 2 3           1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3
 2 3 1 3 1 2 1 2 3   3 1 2 1 2 3 2 3 1            1 2 3 2 3 1 3 1 2
 1 2 3 3 1 2 2 3 1   1 2 3 3 1 2 2 3 1            1 2 3 3 1 2 2 3 1
               7                             8                                   9   
1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3     1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3         1 1 1 2 2  2 3 3 3
1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3     1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2  3        1 2 3 1 2  3 1 2 3
2 3 1 3 1 2 1 2 3     3 1 2 1 2 3 2 3 1         1 2 3 2 3  1 3 1 2
3 1 2 2  3 1 1 2 3    3 1 2 2 3 1 1 2 3         3 1 2 2 3 1 1 2 3
This is Block 6  - Line 6 = 2-3-1-2-
 (The best way to understand this is to split the 4 into 2 x 2  -1 and 2 then 3 and 4 )
Having established block 6 as the block to follow in this instance we can see that the next “pair “ is 1 and 2.
Looking at the block we can see that 1and 2 are  followed by 2 and 2 so  are the indicated dozens to bet on the next 2 spins. As the winning dozens  are 2 followed by 3 we lose our bet .
( Remember if the first wins we  bet ALL the proceeds of the first on the second ).
Now the first 2 numbers are 2 and 3 . Looking at block 6 we find that the first 2 numbers 2 and 3 are followed by 1 and 2 so  these are the dozens we choose to bet and we win our bet.
In this instance we lost  1 bet  and won 1 bet so 2 units bet with a return of 9 units giving   a profit of 7 units. Does this happen all the time ? No, it doesn’t . Sometimes we win and sometimes we lose . That is the reality of gambling but we have need to have confidence that , over a long spell , our profits will exceed our losses .
« Last Edit: June 14, 2017, 11:26:01 PM by scepticus »
 

scepticus

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Re: Scep' s roulette strategies .
« Reply #350 on: July 17, 2017, 11:32:24 PM »

                  Dissecting the 9 block.
Using Block Number 1 as the example  .
111222333
123123123
231312123
231123312
It might help if we divided them into two groups of two
111222333
123123123
and
231312123
231123312
To illustrate that they actually do give a guarantee that there will be one line with at least 3 wins we  consider the sets of three contained in EACH line.
As there are 4 groups of 3 in  each line there are 9 x 4 = 36 possibilities.
The first line, for example, is 1122 so the 4 possibilities here are
1 with  2 and 3 = 112-
1 with 2 and 4 = 11-2
1 with 3 and 4 = 1-22
2 with 3 and 4 = -122
And you do the same with the other 8 lines to give a total of  36 possibilities . That is the bare bones of the 9 block .
The guarantee  is in the absence of the zero which can be allowed for  as one loss in an average 37 spins.
« Last Edit: July 18, 2017, 09:53:51 AM by scepticus »
 

scepticus

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Re: Scep' s roulette strategies .
« Reply #351 on: July 19, 2017, 06:22:22 PM »
                  Dissecting the 9 block.
In the absence  of zero then,
Using Block Number 1 as the example  .
111222333
123123123
231312123
231123312
It might help if we divided them into two groups of two
111222333
123123123
and
231312123
231123312
To illustrate that they actually do give a guarantee that there will be one line with at least 3 wins we  consider the sets of three contained in EACH line.
As there are 4 groups of 3 in  each line there are 9 x 4 = 36 sets of 36 possibilities.
The first line, for example, is 1122 so the 4 possibilities here are
1 with  2 and 3 = 112-
1 with 2 and 4 = 11-2
1 with 3 and 4 = 1-22
2 with 3 and 4 = -122
And you do the same with the other 8 lines to give a total of  36 possibilities . That is the bare bones of the 9 block .

                                   HOW TO BET ?
If there are 4 possibilities each with an equal chance then it can be argued that 2 versus  2  is an even- money bet for which we get  paid 5 /4 . But which to choose ?
I suggest that you choose  1 with 3 and 4, and 2 with 3 and 4 .
How to bet them is simplicity itself.
After the first 2 numbers are known then simply bet against the 2 numbers below the first 2 , and bet as 4 doubles 2x2 .
Thus,
1  ) If the first 2 numbers are in the dozens 1 and 1 then bet 2 units on dozens 1 and 3 . If one of those wins then put 3 units  again on  dozens  1 and 3.

2 ) If the first 2 numbers are in the dozens  1 and 2  then bet 2 units on dozens 1 and 2 . If one of those wins then put 3 units  again on  dozens  1 and 2.
3) If the first 2 numbers are in the dozens 1 and 3 then bet 2 units on dozens 2 and 3 . If one of those wins then put 3 units  again on  dozens  2 and 3.
4 ) If the first 2 numbers are in the dozens 2 and 1 then bet 2 units on dozens 1 and 2 . If one of those wins then put 3 units  n on  dozens  2 and 3.
5 ) If the first 2 numbers are in the dozens 2 and 2 then bet 2 units on dozens 2 and 3 . If one of those wins then put 3 units  n on  dozens  1 and 3.
6 ) If the first 2 numbers are in the dozens 2 and 3 then bet 2 units on dozens 1 and 3 . If one of those wins then put 3 units   on  dozens  1 and 2
7 ) If the first 2 numbers are in the dozens 3 and 1 then bet 2 units on dozens 2 and 3 . If one of those wins then put 3 units   on  dozens  1 and 2
8 ) If the first 2 numbers are in the dozens 3 and 2 then bet 2 units on dozens 1 and 3 . If one of those wins then put 3 units    on  dozens  2 and 3.
9 ) If the first 2 numbers are in the dozens 3 and 3 then bet 2 units on dozens 1 and 2 . If one of those wins then put 3 units  again on  dozens  1 and 3.
 SESSION BANK.
60 units x £5
Table Bank 20 units ( 5 x 4 units )
I suggest maximum loss of 3 Tables. Do not chase losses.
If using 25p chips .  Put 2  x25 chips on the 2 Sixlines in each dozen, e.g. dozen 1  2 chips on sixline 1-6 and 2 chips on sixline 7 - 12 . Total per table £10
50p chips then bet same as 25p Total per table £20
£1 chips then bet same as 25p Total per table £40

.

 

Horsewill

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Re: Scep' s roulette strategies .
« Reply #352 on: July 22, 2017, 05:02:44 AM »
                                              REASONABLE  EXPECTATIONS.
An example of a bet with reasonable expectations is the one I used when winning £150 online .Using  £1 units and a £10 table bank.
I bet one of  the  3 dozens and , if that won , bet the resulting three units  on  the next  spin . When  that  also won   I collected  9 units .Odds of 8 / 1 .
I bet 1 unit  on the first 8 “ bets “ and 2 units on the 9th  “bet “  so one win in 9 “bets “ meant that I profited  -  and moved tables whenever I won .
( by a “bet” here I mean that BOTH dozens I put money on will win - the first being half of the 2 stage bet  )

Scepticus,
I am curious if you have ever used or tested your above strategy betting with 2 dozens at once.
My strategy is to  use the last 2 dozens that hit as the two dozens bet, leaving the sleeping dozen. Disregard the zero, continue to bet the last 2 numbers hit after a zero. You track and parlay each dozen separately as they win or lose. Upon every win of the 9 units, I reset my bet to one unit.  I live in a rural area, most casinos have only one wheel so I play 10 continuous spins, skipping a spin and reset my bet based on the last 2 spins.

I did a short test on my last visit to a local casino, 150 spins, won 57 units. I realize that is a short test, but it appears it may have some promise. Thanks.
 

scepticus

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Re: Scep' s roulette strategies .
« Reply #353 on: July 22, 2017, 04:01:31 PM »
 Hi HorsewilI
I have often used this method AND strategy and found it marginally profitable . So confident am I  that this is the method and strategy  that I would have used if two AP had taken up my challenge that this is as effective as their claimed  AP ! Yes it does lose but the profits exceed the losses because, I think , of my low loss limit . We need to accept that losing is part of the gambling experience so must learn to expect  it .
As for betting 2 dozens, leaving out the sleeper ,  on  the same spin.Many , including myself, have tried this . I think any odds- on bet is suspect . You might consider betting your 2 dozens WITH either 1 or 2 columns to give you odds-in-favour  and bet them as splits.
I have tried 2 dozens and  columns leaving out the sleeper with mixed results.
My small profits might be due merely to my limiting my losses - or even changing my methods . Who cares ? I don't . So long as I can enjoy my hobby without loss I am fine, Too many look for too much. There are no easy profits in any form of gambling so we need to be cautious . 
 
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scepticus

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Re: Scep' s roulette strategies .
« Reply #354 on: August 04, 2017, 11:54:33 AM »

                                           Betting 2 Dozens as a  double / parlay.
From  time to time we get the annoying experience of our chosen strategy being trashed. Dobbelsteens’s idea for using 2 dozens in a progression reminded me of  a Long- Ago method  I had  for betting 2 Dozens at the same time. It trashed . My Sleeper kept appearing all too often .
What I did to counter this was to .
1 ) Bet D2 and D3 if D1 was the last to appear.
2) Bet D1 and D3 if D2 was the last to appear.
3 ) Bet D1 and D2 if D3 was the last to appear.
As always in this type of bet I think it best to bet ALL the return of the first win on to the second bet. In this situation the one - time bet odds of  1 / 2 becomes 5 /4 when Doubled / Parlayed.
You start betting after the first number to appear . Or the last number on the Number Board. 
NO progresssion needed .A 4 units bet  ( 2 + 2 )- lose 4  win 5 . 
NO analysis needed .
WHEN to Stop is  up to the individual Bettor.

 

scepticus

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Re: Scep' s roulette strategies .
« Reply #355 on: August 18, 2017, 01:26:12 PM »

Continuing interest in this thread.
Hopefully this means that some find merit in my approach.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Scep' s roulette strategies .
« Reply #356 on: August 18, 2017, 01:57:27 PM »
In my blog ,I have published this system in a Excel sheet. The particular feature is that every repeater in a dozen give a loss. The short run events can all finish in a loss or a win. The result is not better than betting on two dozens. Without the computer simulation it is impossible to prove this.
 

scepticus

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Re: Scep' s roulette strategies .
« Reply #357 on: August 18, 2017, 05:03:07 PM »

Nope .
Please show where there is not a guarantee that there will be three wins in 4 using ANY of my nine Blocks.
I think you have misunderstood the Nine Block. And you are not alone  !
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Scep' s roulette strategies .
« Reply #358 on: August 18, 2017, 07:39:26 PM »
I was forgotten to upload the picture. Now you can study the record. Tell me where I am wrong.
I have no idea, how I can use the 9 block theory or system. I am glad ,I am not alone. On internet I have only about 15 seconds to make my decisions.
 

scepticus

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Re: Scep' s roulette strategies .
« Reply #359 on: August 19, 2017, 03:13:08 AM »

your reply lacks logic Dobbelsteen.
You  say you don't understand  the Nine Block and yet claim  to have proved it wrong?
If you , or anyone else ,wish I could walk you through it . Just give me ANY 4 numbers and choose ANY of the Nine Blocks and we can start.
I am shocked that so many in the forum do not know how to calculate any 3 from 4.