Author Topic: FULL STREETS  (Read 12320 times)

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Dane

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FULL STREETS
« on: April 12, 2015, 08:08:41 AM »
In area 1-36 there are 12 streets (1-3, 4-6 etc.)
Some years ago I won much money by betting that a number of streets would come with all three numbers. When two of the three had come, I simply bet the missing one.
Later I found out that such a procedure can be dangerous.  Right after3 x 37 spins TWO NUMBERS ARE STILL MISSING (in avarage that is).
But think about this:
If exactly 2 numbers are missing, at least 10 streets must have been completed.
 -      -       3        -          -       -          ,  -     -      9     -            -        -        -              -           
 -      -       4        -          -       -          ,  -     -      8     -            -        -        -              -
 -      -       5        -          -       -          ,  -     -      7     -             -       -         -             -          .

And so forth and so on.

IN AVERAGE two streets should be filled all in within approx. 29 spins.


 

dobbelsteen

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Re: FULL STREETS
« Reply #1 on: April 12, 2015, 08:38:18 AM »
For the maths there is no difference between 3 random numbers and a street. I look very often at the stats of the last 50 spins. Regular I see a cold 3 number neighbour. This is the same as a cold street. Your conclusions are very dangerous and not suitable for a strategy.
 

Dane

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Re: FULL STREETS
« Reply #2 on: April 12, 2015, 02:37:17 PM »
For the maths there is no difference between 3 random numbers and a street. I look very often at the stats of the last 50 spins. Regular I see a cold 3 number neighbour. This is the same as a cold street. Your conclusions are very dangerous and not suitable for a strategy.

There is nothing like stating the obvious. There is no difference between 3 random numbers and a street. I am  perfectly aware of that. Surely you can choose any combinations you like.
But that is not the point. I simply find it easy to register the numbers within the 12 streets. That is why I have chosen the streets. 
If exactly 2 numbers are missing in area 1-36, at least 10 streets must have been completed.
-       -       3      -           -       -           -     -    1-36, -     -     9       -           -          -        -           -       

And so forth and so on. 
THIS IS BEYOND ANY DOUBT
Please don´t jump to conclusions that might be very dangerous and not suitable for a strategy.

 

dobbelsteen

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Re: FULL STREETS
« Reply #3 on: April 13, 2015, 10:44:31 AM »
for missing 2 numbers from 1-36, you need a sample of hundreds spins. It is quite normal that 4 cold numbers has not fallen in more than 100 spins.
Try to devellop a strategy for your ideas.
 

Dane

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Re: FULL STREETS
« Reply #4 on: April 13, 2015, 12:07:17 PM »
for missing 2 numbers from 1-36, you need a sample of hundreds spins. It is quite normal that 4 cold numbers has not fallen in more than 100 spins.
Try to devellop a strategy for your ideas.

Thanks for your kind suggestion. in my opinion a BASIC understanding of probabilities is good when it comes to developing a strategy. What is quite normal? I tried to give you a hint in my first post here by stating that TWO numbers IN AVERAGE would still be missing right after 3 X 37 spins.

If you are convinced that only FOUR numbers from area 1-36 are still sleeping or cold right after
100 spins - then you can bet that  at least eight streets are full up in this period.
Similarly  5 missing numbers would mean that  at least     7 streets would come with all numbers.
    -           6     -              -             -            -         -       -    -     6     -            -          -         -      -        -
    -           7      -             -             -             -         -      -     -     5      -           -          -         -      -        -         
   
And so forth and so on.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2015, 12:09:51 PM by Dane »
 

scepticus

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Re: FULL STREETS
« Reply #5 on: April 23, 2015, 12:44:20 AM »
Do you mean that you bet .say.the number 3 after the numbers 1 and 2 have won ?
And 18 after 16 and 17 have won ? And so on ?
 

Dane

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Re: FULL STREETS
« Reply #6 on: April 23, 2015, 06:45:16 AM »
Do you mean that you bet .say.the number 3 after the numbers 1 and 2 have won ?
And 18 after 16 and 17 have won ? And so on ?

Yes, that´s exactly what I mean.  What I also tried to explain was this: If you subtract the number of missing numbers from 12 (twelve streets), it is a FACT that at least so many streets have come with all three numbers. I might not have explained it good enough.
12-8 = 4. SO IF eight numbers are sleeping all night,   you can be sure that at least four streets have been filled in.   In this example at least four hits on straight up would be guaranteed beyond any reasonable doubt and any scepticism
Developing a strategy based upon this reasoning  of course would mean that we chose a decent number of straight up hits (or streets to be completed)  per session.
 
« Last Edit: April 23, 2015, 06:47:45 AM by Dane »
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: FULL STREETS
« Reply #7 on: April 23, 2015, 08:52:08 AM »
Dane did you play thise strategy on the roulette. It is to complex for an excel program. I advise you to practise your idea on a RNG roulette on internet but in the fun mode. Note your results and publish it on the forum.We will learn from your experience.
 

Dane

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Re: FULL STREETS
« Reply #8 on: April 23, 2015, 02:12:46 PM »
Dane did you play thise strategy on the roulette. It is to complex for an excel program. I advise you to practise your idea on a RNG roulette on internet but in the fun mode. Note your results and publish it on the forum.We will learn from your experience.

If you reread my first post you´ll see  that I have made experiments in this area in the past.
The problem was exactly when to stop!
Instead of following your suggestion I stick to actuals (Permanenzen) from  www.spielbank-wiesbaden.de
I choose Tisch 3.  Table 3 there. And I choose the 1st of April this year (and this is not April´s fool).
I start measuring from the first coup or spin of the day.  No tips. No progression. My deadline is right after the 111th spin.
I plan to note my results and publish them on the forum tomorrow. So tomorrow we should be a little bit wiser.
 

scepticus

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Re: FULL STREETS
« Reply #9 on: April 23, 2015, 07:28:02 PM »
Your point about Dane's idea being too complex for an excel programme, dobbelsteen ,  raises the question " If a system is incapable of programming why do maths geeks claim that they can PROVE that ALL systems MUST lose after any amount of trials ? " 
 

Dane

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Re: FULL STREETS
« Reply #10 on: April 24, 2015, 06:46:49 AM »
In the long run we might lose after any amount of full streets! The question is, however, if it is a good idea to end each session after a certain number of full streets.  It takes much time to test, and  I have only chosen the first list of numbers (from the 1st of April, table 3, Spielbank Wiesbaden)

Each straight up hit here means that the corresponding street has come with all three numbers

1. hit in spin 21.  Hitting # 21      7 chips.
2. hit in spin 26.     -       # 30     33 chips
3. hit in spin 27.     -       #   5      68    -

Extremely Lucky!
To be continued.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2015, 06:49:49 AM by Dane »
 

Dane

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Re: FULL STREETS
« Reply #11 on: April 24, 2015, 09:56:55 AM »
1st SESSION CONTINUED

4. hit in spin 41.   Hitting # 26.              63 chips.
5. hit in spin 50.  Hitting # 16.               51 chips.
6. hit in spin 51.   Hitting # 31.               82 chips.

So six of the twelve streets have come with all of their numbers now.
As many of us know, six numbers can sleep very long. The cautious player might stop now.
To fill in the other six streets might take a long time.
Anyway, in my NEXT post I´ll see what happens.
As you might remember, I have placed a deadline right after spin 111
(111 = 37X3).
 

Dane

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Re: FULL STREETS
« Reply #12 on: April 24, 2015, 10:39:30 AM »
THE END OF 1st SESSION

7.  hit in spin 53.   Hitting # 1.         110 chips.
8.  hit in spin 63.  Hitting #23.        116 chips.
9.  hit in spin 66.  Hitting # 12         146 chips.

10.  hit in spin 106.  Hitting # 34       83 chips.

# 8  &  #14. Five spins and no hit.     73 chips.        End of session.

In my initial post I stated: "Right after 3X37 spins TWO NUMBERS ARE STILL MISSING
                                                                                          (in average that is)".

So in this respect this session was typical!

« Last Edit: April 24, 2015, 10:41:01 AM by Dane »
 

Bayes

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Re: FULL STREETS
« Reply #13 on: April 24, 2015, 02:27:44 PM »
Your point about Dane's idea being too complex for an excel programme, dobbelsteen ,  raises the question " If a system is incapable of programming why do maths geeks claim that they can PROVE that ALL systems MUST lose after any amount of trials ? "

Good question. It's because the standard mathematical expectation formula doesn't care about the details of system X or Y, only the fact that the payoff is less than it should be if the bet were a fair one. Expectation abstracts from all the details like bet selection and money management, and gets to the essence of the matter.

It's about the relation between the payoff and the chance of a win, not either of these taken alone.

All systems, no matter how complex, are capable of being programmed. Maybe excel isn't the best tool for the job, but any general purpose programming language like Python, Java, or BASIC can do it.

 

scepticus

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Re: FULL STREETS
« Reply #14 on: April 24, 2015, 02:50:41 PM »
Your point about Dane's idea being too complex for an excel programme, dobbelsteen ,  raises the question " If a system is incapable of programming why do maths geeks claim that they can PROVE that ALL systems MUST lose after any amount of trials ? "

Good question. It's because the standard mathematical expectation formula doesn't care about the details of system X or Y, only the fact that the payoff is less than it should be if the bet were a fair one. Expectation abstracts from all the details like bet selection and money management, and gets to the essence of the matter.

It's about the relation between the payoff and the chance of a win, not either of these taken alone.

All systems, no matter how complex, are capable of being programmed. Maybe excel isn't the best tool for the job, but any general purpose programming language like Python, Java, or BASIC can do it.

"  Elementary my dear Watson " as Sherlock Holmes would say. Factor in a negative and you get a negative out.Which goes to show that you don't understand that all gambling is about " beating the odds ".If there are no odds to beat thern it is not gambling ! This is a gambling forum so isn't it rather foolish to tell gamblers that they are -er -gambling ? Incidentally, since you seem to be a programmer would you care to programme my Double Dozen Strategy .Thanks