Author Topic: Why would this ever fail?  (Read 6376 times)

Sputnik

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Why would this ever fail?
« on: February 28, 2015, 12:44:50 PM »
 I don't take a No for a answer - i want one explanation toward why would this fail.

 For example, let me make a hypothesis and tell me why it would fail with 99% certainty

 Lets say that if a dozen has slept for 21 times in a row, then i bet with a 11 step progression to cover 32 times in a row
 The reason to this is that one dozen has slept 32 times during 1 million trails and now i cover that situation with 33

 Now assume i run one more test - 1 million and the dozen slept less then 32 times in a row
 This means i made two test and 32 times in a row seams to be the extreme event

 Now during my life time i will never face 1 million trails
 And i know this is gamblers fallacy that past results not matter and same goes for statistics and each event is a new random event and nothing is due to happen

 But would you say that i have 99% probability to succeed during my life time?

 Now lets be conservative and say that i play minimum bet using 11 step progression
 Then medium and last maximum bets using 11 step progression
 This means i have to face 32 sleeping events three times in a row during my life time gambling if i would lose it all back to the casino during my life time

 Would you then say i have 99% probability to succeed

 Now you will say that the house edge will effect the result being negative, but how can that be, i run 1 million trails playing a 12 step Fibonacci and the method tank, but i was still in profit and could not see the effect of the house edge

Would i succeed during one life time playing like i mention above, explain why it would not work or is it impossible because it involves the factor luck
« Last Edit: February 28, 2015, 01:06:38 PM by kav »


 

kav

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Re: Why would this ever fail?
« Reply #1 on: February 28, 2015, 01:09:10 PM »
That is a very good example.
My only objection would be that it is impractical, since it takes too many hours just watching in order to find a dozen sleeping for 21 spins. This also means that you have not many opportunities to bet and win money.
Otherwise I believe you make a good point.
 

Real

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Re: Why would this ever fail?
« Reply #2 on: February 28, 2015, 07:18:51 PM »
Quote
Let's say that if a dozen has slept for 21 times in a row, then i bet with a 11 step progression to cover 32 times in a row The reason to this is that one dozen has slept 32 times during 1 million trails and now i cover that situation with 33

Why wait to bet? 
So you wait, and wait, and wait... The probability of the dozen sleeping for another 11 times is the same as it was for the first 11 times that it slept.  After the dozens have slept for your preselected length of time, the probability of that part of the event moves to 100%, so all that matters is the probability of the next 11 spins.  If you chose to stand around you'll find that your progression loses just as frequently as the person that just jumps right in to bet.  Once you both have placed the same number of bets, your expectation will be the exact same.

By the way, a dozen sleeping for more than 32 spins happens more frequently than you might think.

To fully grasp the reasons why, please read the following link.. http://vegasclick.com/gambling/fallacy.html

Your not alone with your believe in sleepers.  It represents a type of problem that many gamblers simply can't get past because they don't fully grasp basic probability, time, and randomness.  Some people will never get past and will forever remained trapped at the event horizon of the gambler's fallacy, others will.

Here's another question for you to ponder.  Think about 100 consecutive numbers that have just hit on a roulette wheel.  Can you fathom the probability of those specific hundred spins having hit in the exact pattern in which they hit?  Perhaps somewhere there's a players having a cow as he calculates the probability of having seen the exact pattern that he was looking for.  1/38^100.   Every spin of the wheel is part of an extremely rare event.    Within just 20 spins there exists a pattern that is far less likely to occur than a dozen having slept for only 32 spins.
Just the facts,

-Real
« Last Edit: February 28, 2015, 08:36:55 PM by kav »
 

Sputnik

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Re: Why would this ever fail?
« Reply #3 on: February 28, 2015, 07:33:06 PM »
Quote
So you wait, and wait, and wait... The probability of the dozen sleeping for another 11 times is the same as it was for the first 11 times that it slept.

Yes i know that, same if i have 21 reds in a row, it still is 50/50 situtaion, but i have never seen any report for the last 300 years any case with 300 reds
 

Real

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Re: Why would this ever fail?
« Reply #4 on: February 28, 2015, 07:40:28 PM »
Quote
Yes i know that, same if i have 21 reds in a row, it still is 50/50 situtaion, but i have never seen any report for the last 300 years any case with 300 reds

That's because 300 reds is only one of the multitude of possible patterns that can and will hit.  However, what you're over looking is that fact that one extremely and equally rare pattern did emerge that was 300 spins in length!  It likely just wasn't the pattern that you were looking for.

For example.
Which pattern is less likely to hit? 

RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
RBRBRBBBBRBRRRBRBRBBBBBBBBBBBRRRRRRBRBRBRBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBRRRRBRBRBBBR
BBBBBRRRRRRRRRBBBBBBBBBBBBBBRRRRRRRRRRRBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBRBRBRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
RBRBBBBRRRRRRRBRBRBRBRBBBBBBBBBBBBBRBRBRBRBRBRBRBRBRRRRRRRRRRRRBBBBBBBBBB,...

The answer is that they all have the same chance of hitting!  And by the way, there are a gazillion of different patterns, of which one will emerge!

What should really blow your mind is if you think about what the probability was for those 300 numbers to have hit in the exact order in which they hit!  1/37^300th.  Wow!!!  Why didn't the casino report the event??? Of course the reason is because there likely wasn't anyone looking for that pattern.  But then again, you never know.  Maybe there was some old guy that was running a progression betting against that pattern ever happening again.  Or, maybe he was betting for it to happen.   

You must learn to put this in perspective in order to escape the event horizon of the gambler's fallacy.

Best of luck,
Real
« Last Edit: February 28, 2015, 08:40:24 PM by kav »
 

palestis

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Re: Why would this ever fail?
« Reply #5 on: March 01, 2015, 12:25:57 AM »
Quote
So you wait, and wait, and wait... The probability of the dozen sleeping for another 11 times is the same as it was for the first 11 times that it slept.

Yes i know that, same if i have 21 reds in a row, it still is 50/50 situtaion, but i have never seen any report for the last 300 years any case with 300 reds
Sputnik
If I saw a dozen missing 21 spins, I would get in and bet right away. I have been looking at this situation for years. Not exclusively for dozens, but as I write numbers I have cards made in a way that keep track of a lot of things. Dozens columns DS's, streets everything. The   missing dozen  I have found 3 times at 28 spins and one time at 31. A long time retired dealer told me that once in his 35 years a dozen slept for  36 spins. 1 time  in 35 years. The usual RARE MXIMUM is 28 spins. If you see it missing 25 spins bet your house on it. Same goes for a column. The 31 missing spins record you saw sounds just about right. Don't let anybody fool you that this just another pattern of the millions that form.
You cannot make sense of things like RRRBBRRRBBRRRbRR, because it is useless and also impossible to track these patterns.
You can only track what you see. Dozens, columns R/B. These patterns are easy to spot easy to track. I don't recommend to chase these situations as they are time consuming, but if you happen to see them while you walk around or while you write numbers, then by all means it would be stupid not to take advantage of them. Don't let anybody make you think that they can go for another 31 times. That will not happen in the next million years. What you observe in testing huge numbers is what you get. The rare limits you see is the real thing. If the record is broken it will be broken by an additional spin. And that's it. As far as B/R  O/E, H/L, I personally know many people usually low paid retirees that bet the opposite after 10 RED for about 2-3 times only. And  they make more money every day to supplement their retirement many times over.  It's a fact and I see it and I have done it.  Don't get carried away with probability theories. TRUST YOUR OBSERVATION. That's history that I can use. If math and game experts disagree its their problem. Not mine.
What I have in my pocket after I leave the casino is the ultimate proof. Northing else. No history, no probability, no assumptions. 
Some can argue all they want. They can't convince anyone but themselves.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2015, 12:36:16 AM by palestis »
 

Real

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Re: Why would this ever fail?
« Reply #6 on: March 01, 2015, 12:39:03 AM »
Quote
Don't let anybody make you think that they can go for another 31 times. That will not happen in the next million years.-Palestis

Yes, you shouldn't trust history, mathematicians, or the experts.

Quote
If I saw a dozen missing 21 spins, I would get in and bet right away. I have been looking at this situation for years.-Palestis

Palestis,
Years huh?
I see it rather often.  Every few thousand spins (About 2860 to 2900 spins) you'll see at least one or two of the dozens go for 21 spins without hitting.  And yes, I've seen it go well beyond 31 times without hitting as well.

2900/years = 2900/ 3 or 4 means that you're only playing 800 to 1000 spins per year, or at most 90 to 100 spins per month.  Now, that is if you're looking for a specific dozen.  The chance that you will see any of the dozens sleep for 21 or more times actually occurs more frequently.  But for now, we'll just assume that you're looking for a certain dozen. 

I guess that tells us how much you play. 
« Last Edit: March 01, 2015, 01:28:36 AM by kav »
 

palestis

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Re: Why would this ever fail?
« Reply #7 on: March 01, 2015, 01:15:55 AM »
I've been checking  the missing dozens system for years. Not looking for years to find a dozen missing for 21 spins .
In 8 hours and 20 running roulettes, I always found  a dozen or column missing for 21 spins. Every day.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2015, 01:30:54 AM by kav »
 

Real

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Re: Why would this ever fail?
« Reply #8 on: March 01, 2015, 01:54:06 AM »
Palestis,

I get it.  You're young, you're ambitious, and you're determined to prove everyone wrong about the gambler's fallacy.
However...
Rather than swimming against the current, how about stopping for just a second and asking yourself why you believe that history and everyone is wrong? 

You really CAN beat the wheel. (just read the history)  However, you can't do it trying to side step probability, while looking for rare events.  It doesn't work.  It's like trying to side step time.   You will forever be looking for just the right progression/trigger to make your system work.  In some ways it's like trying to figure out how many times you have to divide a whole number by two before reaching zero.

You are currently at the event horizon of the gambler's fallacy.  Some lost souls will never have the intellect required to escape, others will.

Build on the knowledge of others, instead of trying to prove them wrong.
Rather than trying to play the layout, focus on trying to beat the wheel. 

-Real
« Last Edit: March 01, 2015, 02:22:59 AM by kav »
 

Sputnik

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Re: Why would this ever fail?
« Reply #9 on: March 01, 2015, 05:07:52 AM »

 Well for me it does not matter what any one says to me, i only trust my own testing, this means that i will post the results on wensday.
 I have this coded into Roulette Extreme where you can chose to bet from 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
 I will run test for several hundred tousen trails

 Then we will see if Real is right, this makes it more fun, when you can simulate reallity

 Cheers
 

palestis

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Re: Why would this ever fail?
« Reply #10 on: March 01, 2015, 11:55:02 AM »

 Well for me it does not matter what any one says to me, i only trust my own testing, this means that i will post the results on wensday.
 I have this coded into Roulette Extreme where you can chose to bet from 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
 I will run test for several hundred tousen trails

 Then we will see if Real is right, this makes it more fun, when you can simulate reallity

 Cheers
That's exactly  what I suggested. Then you will have an answer. That's all the history you will need. Not the history REAL is talking about. Don't forget to post you results on Wednesday.
And I doubt if there are chronicles in history that deal with the roulette business  in detail. And neither are there math experts willing to waste their time with roulette details. History is the one you create with tests, and the real math expert is you that comes out with definite results after testing.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2015, 12:20:10 PM by palestis »
 

palestis

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Re: Why would this ever fail?
« Reply #11 on: March 01, 2015, 12:18:21 PM »
Palestis,

I get it.  You're young, you're ambitious, and you're determined to prove everyone wrong about the gambler's fallacy.
However...
Rather than swimming against the current, how about stopping for just a second and asking yourself why you believe that history and everyone is wrong? 

You really CAN beat the wheel. (just read the history)  However, you can't do it trying to side step probability, while looking for rare events.  It doesn't work.  It's like trying to side step time.   You will forever be looking for just the right progression/trigger to make your system work.  In some ways it's like trying to figure out how many times you have to divide a whole number by two before reaching zero.

You are currently at the event horizon of the gambler's fallacy.  Some lost souls will never have the intellect required to escape, others will.

Build on the knowledge of others, instead of trying to prove them wrong.
Rather than trying to play the layout, focus on trying to beat the wheel. 

-Real
You stubbornness is remarkable. However extremely ineffective. You are not convincing anybody but your self. Here and in every forum you post.
Therefore , your postings have no value other than being a form of self gratification for you. Your posting style has been answered in the best possible way. WHAT CAN BE DONE CAN BE PROVEN. No system can remain in the darkness of the unknown. There is an answer if it is effective or not. If your mission is not to attack every posting that has to do with systems, then y don't you post your own alternative IN DETAIL, so the rest of us  of can have something to discuss. Saying that beating the device is the answer, is too vague. Give us the details so we can have something to work with. You never know. Maybe someone will finally agree with you for  change.
 

Real

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Re: Why would this ever fail?
« Reply #12 on: March 01, 2015, 05:59:10 PM »
Quote
WHAT CAN BE DONE CAN BE PROVEN. No system can remain in the darkness of the unknown.

Exactly.  Unfortunately we still have people recycling the same garbage of "triggers" and the "martingale", despite the fact that these systems have long since been proven to fail.   

Quote
I personally know many people usually low paid retirees that bet the opposite after 10 RED for about 2-3 times only. And  they make more money every day to supplement their retirement many times over.  It's a fact and I see it and I have done it. -Palestis

No you don't.  They may be playing, but they aren't winning.  Claiming otherwise is misleading other players on this forum.  "What can be done can be proven".  Nobody, has ever proven that this would work.  Furthermore, mathematics, and history have proven that it can not work over an extended period of time.  The gambler's fallacy has been simulated over zillions of trials.  It is nothing more than a fools folly.

Sorry, just the facts.

-Real
« Last Edit: March 01, 2015, 06:13:56 PM by kav »
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Why would this ever fail?
« Reply #13 on: March 02, 2015, 11:54:19 AM »
I have much problems with the login. Report to moderator is logged and I cannot past my text,

 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Why would this ever fail?
« Reply #14 on: March 02, 2015, 12:02:02 PM »
This discussion is about a long run, infinity event.

No player has an infinite life. From this point of view the discussion is senseless. My strategies are based on the features of the short run events.
The height of the sea dikes of Holland are based on a probability that could happen in 10000 years. Nobody is interested in what should happen in his lifetime.
What is a dozen? Is a dozen 12 executive numbers or the twelve numbers of a column or???. A dozen consist of  12 figures. 12 Random numbers is also a dozen. The 2/3 rule tells us that after 36 spins on average 12 numbers have not occur. These 12 numbers are together a very particular dozen. So you have not wait a very long time for a dozen that has not occur in 36 spins.
The table layout makes it possible to start betting on a dozen with one unit. The bet on a dozen of 12 random numbers ask 12 units on straight numbers.
After some trial and error I succeeded in pasting my text.
« Last Edit: March 02, 2015, 02:02:25 PM by dobbelsteen »