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Romn.Paras

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Can the spinner control the ball?
« on: December 08, 2014, 09:08:44 PM »
Hello Friends.  Here is another philosophical question that I am sure we have all thought about when playing roulette. I saw this article and found it interesting and wanted to share it with you all.

 Can the spinner control the ball for the advantage of either the Bank or Player ?  There are many people who think he can, but the majority are of the contrary opinion. What are your thoughts?  I would say that there are 2 significant factors.

(1) If the brass arrangements known as ' obstacles ' were removed from the woodwork of the interior of the machine.
(2)If he were allowed to spin as he chose.

But it is just the two 'ifs ' which make all the difference.

For, in the first place, whenever the ball comes in contact with one of the  little 'obstacles,' all the thrower's calculations
are bound to be upset ; and this is probably what happens more than three times out of five.

In the second place if you leave the ' obstacles ' out of the question altogether in order to attain any great precision, it would be necessary for the spinner
(1) To start from the exact spot he required.
(2) To spin the wheel in the same direction
and the ball in the same direction every time.
(3) To spin with exactly the same speed,
every turn.

It would also be necessary for most men to spin for at least fifty times in succession, before their hand would obtain the accuracy required. But all these provisions are rendered impossible by the rules of the Monte Carlo and Las Vegas establishments, for:

(1) The spinner is bound to start the wheel
from the place where the ball last rested.
(2) He is bound to spin the wheel first to the right and throw the ball to the left ; and then the wheel to the left, throwing the ball to the right, and to continue changing regularly every 'coup.'
(3) He is forbidden to spin the wheel and the ball very gently, and if at any time he is observed to be spinning slower than the regulations permit, the pit boss immediately
directs him to spin again .'
(4) The spinner is changed about every half-hour, so that his hand has very little time
to acquire the necessary mechanical precision.

In any case, and under the most favorable conditions, I am perfectly certain that a croupier cannot spin a particular number, or be sure of making the ball to land near it ; and the very strongest argument of all to support my theory is, that if he could, the Bank would not exist very long. Any man who had this gift would soon be able to realize a fortune, by arranging with friends outside to come and play when it was his turn to spin. It seems pretty conclusive, therefore, that it is not possible for the spinner to throw say within three points of any given number with any certainty.
« Last Edit: December 09, 2014, 12:54:55 AM by Romn.Paras »


 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Can the spinner control the ball?
« Reply #1 on: December 14, 2014, 02:57:53 PM »
Mathematically there is no connection between the rotary direction of the wheel and the ball.
The difference by counter wise rotation is that the ball has a hard landing by bouncing the pocket. Have the wheel and the ball the same direction there is a moment the rotary speed are the same. This can be a reference for prediction the landing sector of the ball.

On a real roulette on internet the rotation direction can alter, but that is a stroboscopic effect.
 

Real

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Re: Can the spinner control the ball?
« Reply #2 on: December 23, 2014, 10:28:38 PM »
The dealer CAN control the ball on some wheel designs... if a dominant ball drop is present.

Contrary to popular belief, the ball canoes/ deflectors are extremely important for what we call "sector shooting" and "visual ballistics".
The more deflectors that there are on the apron of the bowel, the better it is.


Here's why:


    When a wheel is off level, a wheel with 16 deflectors is more likely to develop a dominant ball drop location than a wheel with only eight deflectors.  The reason is that there's a greater chance that there will be a vertical deflector located at the highest off level point of the ball rotation.  Vertical deflectors limit the number of angles at which the ball can approach the spinning rotor.  This is one of the reasons that most roulette wheel manufacturers reduced both the size and the number of ball deflectors from 16 down to just eight, back in the 1980s and 1990s.  (Casinos were losing a fortune to the visual ballistic players).  When a dominant ball drop is present, and you have a good wheel design that limits ball bounce, then even a new dealer can theoretically shoot sectors.  It does not require any "super human skill".  This is because it's not the dealer that makes it possible, it's the wheel.  There are several demonstrations of this on the internet.  Casinos risk consultant, Steve Forte has provided demonstrations on it, and I too can do it, and have done it on my own wheels as well.

  If you'd like to learn the facts, then you can read on the history and evolution of the roulette wheel at http://rouletteresearch.com/Publications/PDF_Documents/EvolutionOfRouletteWheels.pdf  -where a wheel engineer discusses the reasons for changes in wheel designs. 

It seems as though wheel engineers and their hubris are always attempting to play the game of "catch up" with the advantage players, but they're always two steps behind them.

 

-Real
« Last Edit: December 28, 2014, 10:51:06 AM by kav »
 

Romn.Paras

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Re: Can the spinner control the ball?
« Reply #3 on: December 31, 2014, 12:44:54 AM »
I have a few questions that were not explained in the article. 

1.) Why didn't it address when the dealers are switched out every half hour?  Each dealer has a different tendency and rhythm. So is this for long term or short term play? 

2.) Doesn't the dealer call for last bets before the ball hits the obstacles? So wouldn't that throw the calculations off?

3.) If a dealer had this gift, why wouldn't he arrange his friends outside to come play when he is dealing and make a fortune realizing the gift he has? And even if he could control where the ball lies, wouldn't you agree that the Bank would not last long?

4.) Wouldn't it raise some suspicion to the pit boss and others after awhile?

Just trying to understand this theory.
« Last Edit: December 31, 2014, 11:27:51 AM by kav »
 

Real

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Re: Can the spinner control the ball?
« Reply #4 on: December 31, 2014, 05:15:53 AM »
Quote
I have a few questions that were not explained in the article.  1.) play?  Why didn't it address when the dealers are switched out every half hour?  Each dealer has a different tendency and rhythm. So is this for long term or short term


I'm sorry, but I don't think you're understanding the physics of it all.  For starters, dealer's go on breaks and tend to work in eight hour shifts.  Yes they take a brief break each hour but the same dealer typically returns.  Furthermore, the dealer doesn't keep the same "signature" all evening.  The dealer's "signature" changes gradually throughout the evening.  It's measured by comparing groups or individual spins in order to track consistency.


Quote
2.) Doesn't the dealer call for last bets before the ball hits the obstacles? So wouldn't that throw the calculations off?

Yes, of course the dealer calls no more bets before the ball hits the obstacles.  However, visual ballistic players can still place bets and perform the needed calculations in time to bet.

Quote
3.) If a dealer had this gift, why wouldn't he arrange his friends outside to come play when he is dealing and make a fortune realizing the gift he has? And even if he could control where the ball lies, wouldn't you agree that the Bank would not last long?

Again, it's not the dealer's "gift" that makes it possible, it's the wheel.  Even a novice could do it with very little practice.  Many dealer's can't comprehend how it's even possible.  Basically most dealers are no smarter than the cocktail waitress.  However, some do become aware of the ability to shoot sections, but most of them have no idea as to why it works on some wheels, but not others.

Quote
4.) Wouldn't it raise some suspicion to the pit boss and others after awhile? Just trying to understand this theory.

It has at times.  However, I think you're overestimating the the consistency at which the dealers may hit a section.  Such an edge is not always going to be super obvious.  It often requires careful tracking to measure it.  For example, tracking the number that is below the ball each time the dealer release it, as well as the wheel speed, and yardage shot consistencies.
« Last Edit: December 31, 2014, 11:28:21 AM by kav »
 

kav

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Re: Can the spinner control the ball?
« Reply #5 on: December 31, 2014, 12:34:41 PM »
Guys please allow me to quote a great article about dealer's signature. I think Real is the original writer of it. Real, I hope to read more valuable post from you where you EXPLAIN the basis of your knowledge.
Quote
I'm going to keep it super simple at first.

DS does not work because the dealer is super human or extremely skilled.   It happens because the wheel enables it to happen and the dealer is basically lazy.

There is actually quite a bit of confusion about Dealers signature.  It's not so much that a dealer even really has a particular skill, but that the wheel is ideal for it.  The wheel speed and a dominant drop is what makes it look as though the dealer is "super" skilled.  It has more to do with matching up the "frames" or sections of the wheel that are most likely to pass under the dominant drop when the ball is present.

For example: Let's say the dealer "shoots" the ball and that the ball makes 17,18,19,20,21 revolutions over a series of different spins.  At a certain wheel speed, the dealer may have the same chance of hitting a specific "frame" or section of the wheel on more than one ball pass.  In some instances, the dealer may have as many as three chances at a section of the wheel, if it is traveling at the ideal speed. 

(This is a very rough explanation)

At wheel speed X the dealer may have the opportunity to hit the same section of the wheel from the ball release number on ball rotation 17,18, and 21

At wheel speed Y the dealer may have the opportunity to hit the same section of the wheel only on ball rotation 17, and 19.

At wheel speed Z the dealer may have only one opportunity to hit the same section as the previous spin, if the ball drops on ball rotation 19 only.  Understand?

That's why I use to call it "framing"- (looking for the best wheel speeds for the largest number of opportunities of a sectional hit).  The above example is ONLY an example.  It leaves out so much information.  There are actually more variations to it.  If you want to really grasp the concept, you need to film a wheel.  The above example is really to illustrate how a dealer may hit the same section of the wheel, even if the ball makes an additional rotation.

I have already tested this method to several thousands of spins.   Would you like to see some of the real test results?-See below.  I did not segregate by wheel speed.  I did not want to curve fit the trials.  I also wanted to measure the raw effect over more than one dealer.  The biggest difference the dealers made, were spinning their wheels at a less than optimal speeds.  The advantage of the method still emerged even in the raw trials. 

When I tested this method on wheels that had completely random drops the edge evaporated.

The two steps that you MUST include in your test for it to work is:

1.  Compare only the change in travel yardage between every two spins of the dealer.  Compare only spin 1 travel yardage to spin 2 travel yardage etc. ,. . .  The reason is that the dealers will continually fine tune each spin and the wheel speed continually drifts throughout a session.  The signature is therefore perishable. 
This also removes any doubt that the test results were some how "peak picked" or "curve fit". 

2.  A wheel with dominant drops. 

If I would have cut and pasted the Excel program it would have looked all screwed up, so I have posted only the totals and the test results.  I tested this years ago on Mark4,5 Huxleys, and Paul-sons.  The chi square and the standard deviation results were impressive. 

These numbers represent the change in the dealers travel yardage between consecutive spins only. 

For example: spin 1 the dealer releases the ball from a specific number and the ball lands 10 pockets from the release number.  The travel yardage for spin one is 10 pockets. 

Spin 2 the dealer releases the ball from a specific number and the ball lands 12 pockets from the ball release number.  The travel yardage for spin two is 12 pockets. 

Now this is how you determine how accurate the dealer is:

Measure the change in travel yardage between every two sets of spins.  In the above example the change in travel yardage is Spin 2 - Spin 1 = change in yardage of +2 pockets.  Understand?
Spin 2 is 12 pockets.  - Spin 1 is 10 pockets = a change of yardage of +2 pockets. 

Here is how the plot looked on Wheel 1 (only 623 spins).  I actually have tracked and recorded just over 7800 spins on a few different Mark4's and 5's to test dealers on these wheel designs with dominant drops.  I will post those as I find them.  This plot is actually 4 different dealers over the course of a few days.  The relative positions that we are most interested in are of course, for relative positions -1,0,+1. 
This three number sector was already over 4. 28 st dev.  at only 623 spins. 
The chance of randomness for the twelve pocket sector was 2. 078 followed by 9 zeros. 
While the standard deviation could be considered random given the small trial, what makes it significant is that it is where we would predict it to be.  Understand?
The scatter out to the left and right of relative position 0 is also interesting considering the location of the ball deflectors. 

When the sum of the neighbor 5 and 10 are examined the signature is quite obvious.   There is also other frequencies that should be tested.   I have software that does the work for me.

relative position

 -18-7 hits
-17-15
-16-15
-15-11
-14-16
-13-17
-12-12
-11-21
-10-23
-9-12
-8-11
-7-20
-6-13
-5-23
-4-16
-3-13
-2-15
-1-28
0-26
+1-24
+2-13
+3-13
+4-22
+5-15
+6-19
+7-25
+8-15
+9-20
+10-12
+11-14
+12-16
+13-12
+14-17
+15-13
+16-16
+17-11
+18-17
+19-15

(Sorry, I don't know how to post my program graphs on this website. )

While this method is interesting and does provide you with a real edge, there are better ways to play using real VB. 

When testing your results, collect statistically relevant sample sizes.   Start by collecting at least 1000 spins for your tests.   (Measuring just 10 or 20 spins is meaningless).
« Last Edit: December 31, 2014, 04:42:01 PM by kav »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Can the spinner control the ball?
« Reply #6 on: December 31, 2014, 02:56:28 PM »
Again, it's not the dealer's "gift" that makes it possible, it's the wheel.  Even a novice could do it with very little practice.  Many dealer's can't comprehend how it's even possible.  Basically most dealers are no smarter than the cocktail waitress.  However, some do become aware of the ability to shoot sections, but most of them have no idea as to why it works on some wheels, but not others.


A few lines before you were writing about the "dealer's signature" is changing slowly on the evening and on the very next paragraph you are replying that it's not the dealer's gift,but the wheel's attitude...
Don't you think this is a little bit contradictory...??

And one last thing,if you think that you, or anyone could spot those "signatures" you are way far from the truth!
The truth is the repetitive numbers, sections...etc could happen on a RANDOM game like roulette AND if there was 1 in 100000 wheels biased,then it would be immediately replaced and fixed before you even take a place at a table!
Modern wheels are leveled and of the highest standards in order NOT to produce flaws like a sector being dominant more than its probability!
« Last Edit: December 31, 2014, 04:09:33 PM by kav »
 

Real

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Re: Can the spinner control the ball?
« Reply #7 on: December 31, 2014, 04:34:18 PM »


Quote
A few lines before you were writing about the "dealer's signature" is changing slowly on the evening and on the very next paragraph you are replying that it's not the dealer's gift,but the wheel's attitude...
Don't you think this is a little bit contradictory..?
  NO
Quote

And one last thing,if you think that you, or anyone could spot those "signatures" you are way far from the truth!
The truth is the repetitive numbers, sections...etc could happen on a RANDOM game like roulette

« Last Edit: Today at 09:09:33 AM by kav »

NO, actually I'm not.  This is one of my areas of expertise.  You're not grasping the physics of it, or the data collected to measure it.  You're assuming that the player is only looking at the raw data, rather than what number is below the ball when the dealer is releasing it, the speed of the wheel, the presence of a dominant ball drop, etc.

Quote
AND if there was 1 in 100000 wheels biased,then it would be immediately replaced and fixed before you even take a place at a table!Modern wheels are leveled and of the highest standards in order NOT to produce flaws like a sector being dominant more than its probability!



I'm guessing that you don't really know anything about bias either.  There are two types:

1. A bias that pertains to a worn or defective ball track/apron that creates a dominant ball drop zone.  This type of bias is not what causes some numbers to hit more frequently than others.  This is the type of bias on which visual ballistic players rely.  A dominant ball drop can also occur when a wheel is off level.  Most wheels have a dominant ball drop zone to some degree.

2. A rotor bias is the type that can create a pocket bias, or section bias.  This is the type of bias that can cause some numbers to hit more frequently than other numbers.

Every wheel is biased to some degree.  Even modern wheels will occasionally be biased enough to overcome the house edge.  It's not always wear and tear that creates bias, it can also be the result of poor assembly or damage during shipping and reassembly.

Contrary to popular believe, a biased wheel is not easily spotted, and it's not immediately removed from the floor.  Biased wheels often make the same amount of money for the casino as more random wheels make.  Sometimes, even more depending on the type of bias, and the numbers that may be affected.

Roulette wheels are very expensive.  They are not just pulled from the floors on a whim.  The casino is more interested in whether or not the wheel is making money.  If it is, then there's no reason to pull it.  Biased wheels are usually just moved around the casino floor, rather than replaced.  It's uncommon for either the dealer or players to realize that a wheel is biased.  Furthermore exploiting a biased wheel is too complicated for most gamblers.

The area of roulette bias is my area of expertise.  I have a great deal of experience with them.  I've worked on them, repaired them,  I own various models of them, defect spot them, and I play them for a living.

-Real

« Last Edit: December 31, 2014, 05:06:13 PM by Real »
 

Romn.Paras

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Re: Can the spinner control the ball?
« Reply #8 on: January 05, 2015, 12:18:34 AM »
I am a person who enjoys the game of roulette. I enjoy the challenge and philosophy behind it.  I don't however like the fact that some players have something negative to say to people all the time.  What gives a player the right to talk to someone in a condescending way or tone? What gives the right for a player to be arrogant? Why would you talk to someone that way?   I never hear players trying to build each other's confidence. We are not competing against each other, we are competing with ourselves. Each person is on his or her own individual journey.  Who are we to tell that person what is right and wrong with them? Keep in mind that we ALL started out as beginners once. I understand if a player specifically asks another player a question on a technique , but to impose their beliefs on someone in a demeaning. condescending matter is just plain wrong. I personally feel if we started telling our fellow players what they are doing right as appose to what they are doing wrong, we would not only get better feedback, but we could build a wonderful network of fellow players who can share ideas and philosophies and experiences and actually enjoy the game and build wonderful friendships across the world.  I think some of us need to leave our ego at the door. 
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Can the spinner control the ball?
« Reply #9 on: January 05, 2015, 11:02:34 AM »
I am a person who enjoys the game of roulette. I enjoy the challenge and philosophy behind it.  I don't however like the fact that some players have something negative to say to people all the time.  What gives a player the right to talk to someone in a condescending way or tone? What gives the right for a player to be arrogant? Why would you talk to someone that way?   I never hear players trying to build each other's confidence. We are not competing against each other, we are competing with ourselves. Each person is on his or her own individual journey.  Who are we to tell that person what is right and wrong with them? Keep in mind that we ALL started out as beginners once. I understand if a player specifically asks another player a question on a technique , but to impose their beliefs on someone in a demeaning. condescending matter is just plain wrong. I personally feel if we started telling our fellow players what they are doing right as appose to what they are doing wrong, we would not only get better feedback, but we could build a wonderful network of fellow players who can share ideas and philosophies and experiences and actually enjoy the game and build wonderful friendships across the world.  I think some of us need to leave our ego at the door.

In general I agree,but there is normal to have arguments,however sometimes these arguments are becoming more personal...
A good way to perceive everything is that there is not right or wrong,but only different kind of approaches on the same subject.
And one last thing,I believe is more useful the criticism than flattery and/or building confidence.
Of course there is the bad intentioned criticism,in purpose to mislead,deceive,but we could separate the "wheat from the chalk"...
 

kav

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Re: Can the spinner control the ball?
« Reply #10 on: January 05, 2015, 05:49:48 PM »
Just to spice up the discussion.
A demonstration of hitting the exact number in three tries.
 See this very short video
Note that this is a real casino wheel, in an official casino, and it is used for actual betting.
If you don't understand the audio, there are English subtitles.
« Last Edit: January 05, 2015, 05:57:53 PM by kav »
 

palestis

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Re: Can the spinner control the ball?
« Reply #11 on: January 05, 2015, 08:06:35 PM »
Just to spice up the discussion.
A demonstration of hitting the exact number in three tries.
 See this very short video
Note that this is a real casino wheel, in an official casino, and it is used for actual betting.
If you don't understand the audio, there are English subtitles.
Wow. Where did you find this dealer in the video?
I know him very well, as he used to be a dealer in Parnitha and I played with him many times. He's also a player in other casinos.
It looks like he left the Parnitha Casino and he's probably a dealer in one of the underground casinos in Athens.
« Last Edit: January 05, 2015, 08:08:14 PM by palestis »
 

Romn.Paras

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Re: Can the spinner control the ball?
« Reply #12 on: January 05, 2015, 10:09:33 PM »
Kav,

I liked the video. That is pretty interesting. Nice post Kav.  Has there ever been a video on a dealer hitting the same number 3 times consecutively and calling it?  Here is a gentleman performing what is called Kesselgucken. There is not a German to English translation of the word.  Here is a short video on it:  youtube.com/watch?v=jSTHOPALpzw&feature=youtu.be

One can hope but wonder if there were "obstacles" on the wheel if the outcome would be the same.
« Last Edit: January 05, 2015, 11:04:06 PM by kav »
 

kav

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Re: Can the spinner control the ball?
« Reply #13 on: January 05, 2015, 10:34:59 PM »
Hello Romn,
Thank you very much for your comment.

The important difference between the video I posted and this video, is that we don't know the conditions of the latter experiment which is performed by a VB system seller (ie. how many spins were recorded in order to choose the specific series, if the wheel was rigged or tilted etc)
While the first video takes place in an official casino with an actual "legit" wheel and we see the experiment from the start, before even the dealer reaches the wheel.

That is to say that the first video is much more transparent and reliable, while the second video is less trustworthy.
« Last Edit: January 05, 2015, 11:01:07 PM by kav »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Can the spinner control the ball?
« Reply #14 on: January 08, 2015, 04:29:37 PM »
This is very rare,it's like trying to roll the dice the way you want...
If this was easy and simple,every gambler could win on craps by practice on dice rolling in order to gain significant advantage.
Believe me,I've tried it for months,day after day to develop this so called "dice influence" technique,but on the end I realized it results in insignificant advantage.
So the same goes for the croupiers of roulette.
As for the ones who believe in "dealer's signature",it doesn't make sense!
It's like you are saying:"I don't want to move my hand but it's moving by itself"!
This,to say the least is laughable!
Just think about it.