Author Topic: Why do you think we lose at roulette?  (Read 5428 times)

kav

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Why do you think we lose at roulette?
« on: November 02, 2014, 10:13:00 AM »
Hello friends.

I prepare an article with valuable insight about why roulette players lose.
However the issue of loss in roulette and gambling in general has already been touched upon in these two articles:
Why gamblers lose: Where we explain the mechanisms, thought processes and psychological aspects of loss in skilled and non-skilled gambling (lottery, slots, poker etc.)
The House Edge Myth: Where I explain why the negative expectation is not the primary reason roulette players lose.
I the latter article I define volatility as our primary enemy.
As this article got discussed in various forums, people added some other important factors that lead to losses or impede our efforts. Notably the roulette table limits.
Another extremely important factor is as I have already pointed out is our bankroll. Specifically the size of our bankroll and our bankroll management.

Let's discuss, why we lose. Yes there is the negative expectation and all that but let's go beyond that. Let's look at ourselves, our and other player's experiences and discover little or bigger things that lead us to our doom. If you were to give advice (it is easier to give advice than follow it yourself :-)) to a player what would that be?  What outside and inside (greed comes to mind) factors should someone keep an eye on?

Let's take a step back for a moment and try to figure out and realize the enemy (or enemies). Most people on this board are intelligent and experienced players and I'd love to read your opinion.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2014, 02:10:13 PM by kav »


 

Sputnik

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Re: Why do you think we lose at roulette?
« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2014, 12:38:57 PM »
This is based upon my opinion.

My first point.
One thing i been thinking about is to cut loses short, that the game is about not losing to much.
Then the winnings will take care of the other side of the coin.

Lets say i have 100 and win target 20.
Then if i don't reach my 20 direct ,,, and are down 20 i should aim to break even and not push for +20 - then i hade to travel +40 to reach that goal.
If i am down -20 i only have to travel to 0 and bet same distance as from 0 to +20.
This means i can reach my win goal twice with the same probability and distance or betting.
I regard +20 or break even as winning as there is no loses and get there betting the same.

That is one way cut loses short.
After that if i would be down -40 is time to accept loses or maybe fight back to -20 and stop.
As the distance or traveling/betting would be the same as the first indication to reach win goal or break even.

This is my line of thinking why we lose at roulette, we need strict and clever rules when it comes to money management.
And this put me to my other point of view.

My secound point of view:
I think there is a false positive thinking i can win 20% (a low win-target) to win more regulary.
Sure it cut loses short but i don't end up winning in the long term.
Lets say i win five days in a row +20 +20 +20 +20 +20 then the sixth day i lose my 100 and i am back at 0.
I gave it all back.

I belive we need to generate more money when we play and set win-targets.
Using a money management method that allow us to push for more with out giving it all back.

For example if i win +20 +35 +40 +25 +10 during five days and bust at the sixth day with 100,,, then i still have +30.
Because my win-target was 20% but i push for more and some time succed or hit saftey net.
The only method that allow for this is John Patrick and Brett Mortons Money Management methods.
I still read and learn from that and think that is very important to cut loses short.

I call this the 20/100 flaw that we have to overcome.

My third point.

Sometime i ask my self that we all develop ways to play roulette in the wrong way.
For example when you read gambling forums - then the most common thing you see is one bet selection and one progression - no more or less.
We know that will not work and still all continue in the same way.

My point is that we should start from the Money Management rules first.
For example i sett a win-target of 40 and that would make me happy.
Then i know what makes me happy and feel good to go home, the reason why i gamble.
Now the question comes what i am prepeared to risk to win 40
Lets say 200.

Here it comes, i have 200 and if the minimum bet on the table is 10 i only get 20 bets flat betting and less using a progression.
Now the Money Management tell me the rules and limits i have to deal with, i can not use any kind of sloppy method.
The staking plan has limits and same goes for bet selection.
So i can not just create a mehtod with a 12 progression.

No one start from this end when developing methods.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2014, 12:41:04 PM by Sputnik »
 

kav

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Re: Why do you think we lose at roulette?
« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2014, 02:25:23 PM »
Hi Sputnik,

Really great points. Bankroll management is of paramount importance. It is the strategic point of view, while the progression is more like a tactical point of view. As in all battles -and roulette play is a battle, with offensive and defensive moves and enemies and surprise attacks- you need not only a good fighting tactic on the field, but also a great general strategy. Bankroll management is about the big picture. And indeed it is a great and fresh starting point for developing a system.

You also touch on the issues of stop-loss and stop-win. And sometimes the wrong stop-win can be equally or even more important that the stop-loss. However, I'm more of the school of thought that say stop limits should not matter and that all your sessions should be considered and treated like ONE long session, based on the principle of personal permanence.  Oops! I still owe to write that article ;-)

Thank you very much for an amazing reply Sputnik.
 

Sputnik

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Re: Why do you think we lose at roulette?
« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2014, 04:23:08 PM »
-

Thanks for your kind words Kav.

I like that you mention personal permanence, thats all we have.
But my opinion is different and i think short burst is better then all in.
Even if i know it does not change the long term results, so does short attacks feel better in my book.

Cheers
« Last Edit: November 02, 2014, 04:24:42 PM by Sputnik »
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Why do you think we lose at roulette?
« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2014, 12:29:36 PM »
The ER has a profit of about 2,7% of the bets.You are a very succesful player ,if you can realise a profit of about 1 to 2% of your bets. From my point of view only a strategy based on statistic features can beat the roulette. This is only possible, when the player has the knowledge. the experience and the skill. More than 90% of the players have no strategy and play random.Playing without common sense is gambling.
 

kav

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Re: Why do you think we lose at roulette?
« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2014, 01:26:28 AM »
What are the common mistakes players do at roulette? This was the original question.
 

kav

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Re: Why do you think we lose at roulette?
« Reply #6 on: November 09, 2014, 08:08:01 AM »
Here's is a great example of a weakness that makes us lose. I call it: Roulette Player's Tilt or maybe more correctly Losing Steaks Tilt .

Quote
ati:
I had a very unlucky series of numbers in today's session, and I had to bet over 1000 units, and that still wasn't enough to cover the losses.
I got mad, raised the stakes, and lost about 6000 units total.

and an insightful reply by GLC
Quote
Dear Ati, 

I'm sorry for the bad streak that caused your weakness to surface.  I'm sure it's revealed its ugly head before.

My brother, Nathanael, has the same problem.  When he has a really bad streak and he gets this all or nothing mentality.  Many times he will win big right at the end of his bankroll.  That's bad because the memory of those wins causes him to go crazy and risk it all, every time, in hopes of hitting another lucky win just before tapping out.  I can tell you that he's lost every dime he's ever invested in gambling because he plays to either win a ton or lose it all.  Even when he wins a ton, it's only temporary because he's never satisfied. 

I can't tell you how many times he's come up with a good plan of attack, to play within certain parameters.  He does good while he's winning, but as soon as he gets that streak from he!!, he loses it.  It's like he's under some kind of hypnotic spell and can't stop.  I'm not saying you're as bad as he is, but even close to him is bad.  His only saving grace that he's been able to keep his losses to money that he's set aside for entertainment purposes.

He has two hobbies.  Golf and gambling.  Both expensive.

My advice.  Cash out the remaining 3000 units and stop gambling. 

There's a trigger in you that can't be controlled, at least not at this time, and you never know when it will flip on.  When it does, it controls you.  I'm surprised that you pulled up before losing everything.  That does show that there's hope.

Believe me when I say that we're all concerned for you.  Most of us have been where you are.  Chasing bad money with good money.  It's a real wake-up call. Our dear friend Bazeegar almost crashed and burned completely, and had to turn from gambling, permanently.  We were all concerned for him and hope he's hanging tough. Maybe you feel this advice is over-the-top for you.  Better over-stated than under-stated.

Good luck my friend
 

kav

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Re: Why do you think we lose at roulette?
« Reply #7 on: November 09, 2014, 10:56:46 AM »
Two more good reasons we lose:

Gambler's Conceit

Existential Inhumility
« Last Edit: November 09, 2014, 01:10:16 PM by kav »
 

Downthehatch

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Re: Why do you think we lose at roulette?
« Reply #8 on: December 21, 2014, 04:26:59 PM »
hi
first post here as a new member

well because roulette sends people potty! the game seems to be able to change us from rational reasoning people
into the equivalent of you tube conspiracy fruitcakes, who mysteriously find 'connections' between numbers/groups/dozens etc,
we construct systems based on our own fantasies and then wonder why we lose.

Not that system construction is essentially bad in fact its the way to go as a frame work for doing something other than simply
throwing the chips on the table and hoping, i think its best to have a strategy, all one can hope for is that the 'bad run' that always defeats
the latest system/method in the long run occurs when you are not there.

Cheers Dth
 

kav

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Re: Why do you think we lose at roulette?
« Reply #9 on: December 21, 2014, 10:21:46 PM »
Hello and welcome to the forum Downthehatch.
Very nice first post!
 

Real

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Re: Why do you think we lose at roulette?
« Reply #10 on: December 21, 2014, 10:40:00 PM »
Players lose because of the house edge.  Variance is a double edged sword, that at times benefits the player, and at other times the casino.

Players waste far too much time worrying about money management and gaming discipline, greed, etc.  This leads to a mental trap, from which most players can not escape.  Instead, they should focus more energy and time on getting the edge over the casino. If you can't get the edge, then you simply can't win in the long run.  Escape the confines of the trap, find a way to get the edge. 

-Real
« Last Edit: December 23, 2014, 04:01:40 PM by kav »
 

palestis

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Re: Why do you think we lose at roulette?
« Reply #11 on: December 22, 2014, 03:23:22 AM »
hi
first post here as a new member

well because roulette sends people potty! the game seems to be able to change us from rational reasoning people
into the equivalent of you tube conspiracy fruitcakes, who mysteriously find 'connections' between numbers/groups/dozens etc,
we construct systems based on our own fantasies and then wonder why we lose.

Not that system construction is essentially bad in fact its the way to go as a frame work for doing something other than simply
throwing the chips on the table and hoping, i think its best to have a strategy, all one can hope for is that the 'bad run' that always defeats
the latest system/method in the long run occurs when you are not there.

Cheers Dth
Dth
You only become a fruitcake if you let yourself to become one. Connections among numbers and groups of numbers such dozens, columns EC's etc. do not exist in fantasies. Roulette numbers are not a lose cannon doing whatever they want. They have an obligation in their totality. Nothing can escape this obligation. A shrewd player can identify these  connections.  And take advantage of them. Bad runs can happen, but you are not obligated to play when they happen. You have every right to stop. Just as you have every right to walk away when you win. Something easier said than done. The biggest trap is getting  color chips and sitting down. Have you noticed the dealers when the pay a winning number, they push as many color stacks as they  possibly can? They do, unless you insist on high value chips.  Having 8 color stacks in front of you it's inviting  to bet more, especially after a hit. Or would you push all of them back to the dealer and ask for exchange?
3 minutes after sitting at the table and hitting a sizable win?  Most likely you will continue, now that you have plenty of armor in front of you.
A smart player is on the outside looking in. When they hit they step back. And they only come back when a new opportunity arises.
Have you thought y they have limits at the tables?  On numbers or groups. If statistics didn't matter and the numbers always behaved unpredictably, then there would be no need for limits. If the probability of RED was always 18/37, it shouldn't matter whether you placed 3 bets on red or 20 bets on red with progression. But the limits do not allow you to do that. I wonder why. Or do they know that with 18/37 chances you can't always lose? The reason most players lose is because they fall in the traps. And the biggest trap is to sit down and get color chips, and a glass of scotch. A recipe for disaster.
« Last Edit: December 25, 2014, 01:01:42 AM by palestis »
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Why do you think we lose at roulette?
« Reply #12 on: December 26, 2014, 12:48:50 PM »
About ten years ago, Holland Casino introduced the color chips. The France roulette was too expensive. In busy moments one table used three croupiers and a table chief.
 I always play on more than one table. I never bought the color chips. Many times , I was paid out my profit in color chips. It happens that I had three different color chips in my pockets. This was not appreciated by the table managers.

Most losing players stop when they had lost their color chips. I see the same  happens on the Multi Roulette with the credits or units. Color chips and credits are against the players who visit the casino only for pleasure.  The lost is not owing to the house edge, but is caused by the features of a small (nano) session. The variance is unpredictable and the results of the spins are not statistic expectations. The experience players use these features in their advantage.
 

Dane

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Re: Why do you think we lose at roulette?
« Reply #13 on: December 27, 2014, 08:03:49 AM »
Hi dobbelsteen!
Many years ago in Germany at a French roulette table I won after placing a jeton or chip. Some of the other players maintained: "Hey, that is MY
bet". In German it is called "STREIT-SATZ". Such incidents are not pleasant neither for the player nor the employed. Another time (in the middle of the night) some of my placed chips mysteriously disappeared. Some other guest obviously was a clever thief
The development in the Casinos in Denmark seems to be similar to the one in your country. The French roulette dominated in the beginning, but now another version (with coulored chips) is everywhere! When we leave a table, we must change the coulor chips into the traditional jetons.
I think it is fine. But I have no need to run from table to table.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Why do you think we lose at roulette?
« Reply #14 on: December 27, 2014, 11:56:20 AM »
Every thing in the Holland Casinos is recorded. Coupiers and tyhe table manager has notime to solve claims between the players. In such cases the video recorder is watched. Nowedays there are much less problems with the players.