Author Topic: Target Twist  (Read 606 times)

Sheridan44

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Target Twist
« on: March 13, 2017, 03:34:27 AM »
The "Target" or "Parachute" methods described on various posts are excellent. They focus on escalating payouts rather than escalating bet amounts. In someways they make the wheel "work for you" rather than the opposite.

The standard "progression" (I'm reluctant to use the term 'progression') is usually in the form of ... Even Chance > Dozen > Double Street > Quad > Single Street > Split > Straight Up (one number).

I've been tinkering with a variation on this theme... with interesting results. I would like to share this information for comments, suggestions and further development.

My "tweak" on it is to begin with three Straight Up bets - then go to 2 Double Streets, 3 Quads, 3 Single Streets, 6 Splits then 18 Straight Ups.  As typical with the "Target", these are all one unit flat bets. A win at any point locks up at least a one unit profit, and calls for starting the process again from the beginning.

By installing 3 Straight Ups at the start of each cycle, you have ongoing multiple shots at a 35-1 payout, and it costs no more than the EC, Dozen and one Double Street that normally fill these slots.

I play the SU's like Kav does... by picking one number and sticking with it all the way through. It's usually the number 1, which has no particular significance other than the ease of betting it on the computer with my mouse. I know that others prefer selecting other SU numbers in various ways... and there's nothing wrong with that... I believe it all comes out in the wash eventually. For me, staying with one number makes things easier to calculate and and analyze at the end of the day.

By reverting back to the starting SU bets at the end of each cycle, I was pleasantly surprised how many hits I got...and in times when things were slumping, the SU hits were really nice. it also gives you more shots at your SU's than you'd normally get running the basic Target/Parachute.

The below post is an image of my first results. These are not hand-picked...I am condemned to play the double zero wheel - being that I'm on the left side of the Atlantic. I suspect that single zero wheels might do slightly better.

I gave it a 1444 spin test run, which is one full numerical rotation of the double zero wheel (38 numbers x 38 spins = 1444 total spins).

Some items of note:

My starting point is 5,000 units. At my lowest point (4,954)... I was only down 9/10ths of 1% of my bankroll.

There were only 95 actual winning bets out of the 1444 bets placed... which is only 6.58 percent winning bets - yet I ended up with a 128 unit profit at the end of it all... which speaks highly of utilizing an increasing and varied  payout method versus bet amount escalation.

There are other things to figure out with this such as optimal times to "parachute" out, recovery methods, win goals/loss limits, and other adjustments.

As always, I'm open to any and all suggestions and comments. Pride is no issue with me. We're all in this together... and I could have not thought of (or overlooked) some things. That's why feedback is important to me... I learn something new almost every time I visit this forum...and I'm grateful for it!
« Last Edit: March 13, 2017, 03:41:56 AM by Sheridan44 »


 
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Sheridan44

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Re: Target Twist
« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2017, 03:40:05 AM »

Target Twist...
« Last Edit: March 13, 2017, 04:13:24 PM by Reyth »
 
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BlueAngel

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Re: Target Twist
« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2017, 08:56:45 AM »
This is an original idea, I like it.
In the past I've tried two variations, the first was to start by betting 2 units instead of 1 on any EC, if            the bet won then the second bet was 1 unit on the same EC.
If I had a winning streak the bets continue like this 2,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 if I had 9 wins in a row I'd restart by betting 2 units.
If I lost any bet except the first, I'd restart from scratch, but when lost first bet the 'target' initiates.

The second variation I've tried was waiting for the same line hit back to back, then lay it by backing the rest, If won I'd wait for another,if lost I'd skip the first 5 steps of the 'target' and continue by betting quads.

I've tested both methods with the same file which included approximately 2000 spins and there were victorious with no significant difference.
I don't like waiting for triggers, thus I'd prefer the version with the 'golden progression' but it doubles the cost of the 'target'.

I like your reversed parachute, you've kept it flat and to 35 units, there could be plenty similar variations but don't forget the main question, what's the target?!
 
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Bayes

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Re: Target Twist
« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2017, 11:06:45 AM »
Hi Sheridan, the sequence is an improvement in terms of the win probability over the other sequence you posted in the Talos_Dump thread; the probability is now around 85% instead of 75%. The trade off is that the average win amount will be smaller. But it raises the question - is this the optimum probability given the constraint of a max outlay of 35 units/bets?

The "solver" feature in excel or libreoffice calc might be a way to find out. It seems to me that linear programming  (what solver uses ) could help to design and optimize systems subject to various constraints. More generally, there's an entire field of applied maths called operations research:

Quote
It is often considered to be a sub-field of applied mathematics.[2] The terms management science and decision science are sometimes used as synonyms.[3] Employing techniques from other mathematical sciences, such as mathematical modeling, statistical analysis, and mathematical optimization, operation research arrives at optimal or near-optimal solutions to complex decision-making problems.

An avenue worth exploring perhaps, rather than using a trial and error approach.
 
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Reyth

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Re: Target Twist
« Reply #4 on: March 13, 2017, 04:08:23 PM »
Holy crap can I thank your OP twice!?

I think I will make a duplicate account for this purpose!



Ok sorry, yes ma'am (gulp)
« Last Edit: March 13, 2017, 04:11:28 PM by Reyth »
 
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Jesper

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Re: Target Twist
« Reply #5 on: March 13, 2017, 04:14:05 PM »
For good or bad trial and error made our civilisation! Currently it is leaning at the bad.
 
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Reyth

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Re: Target Twist
« Reply #6 on: March 13, 2017, 07:02:39 PM »
... there's an entire field of applied maths called operations research:

Quote
It is often considered to be a sub-field of applied mathematics.[2] The terms management science and decision science are sometimes used as synonyms.[3] Employing techniques from other mathematical sciences, such as mathematical modeling, statistical analysis, and mathematical optimization, operation research arrives at optimal or near-optimal solutions to complex decision-making problems.

An avenue worth exploring perhaps, rather than using a trial and error approach.

I think you should start a thread about it and post reguarly because I think us unlettered folk will be overwhelmed and need someone to break it all down for us?
 
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Re: Target Twist
« Reply #7 on: March 13, 2017, 09:57:15 PM »
Hi Sheridan44, I like your idea! I tried playing a few games it seems to win a lot.

One Question, though. Mostly out of curiosity. Why is it you only bet 2 Double Streets, and not 3 (like all your other bets)? Your other bets are in multiples of 3. If you pick 3 S/U's to begin, it seems you could place 3 DS on those same numbers, then 3 Quads, 3 SS's, 3 Splits. It seems more uniform this way to me. Then, just place 17 SU at the end instead of 18.

I realize you have 35 units to work with and have to subtract 1 unit from ONE of those bets. I'm just curious why you chose the DS?

Thanks.

 
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Sheridan44

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Re: Target Twist
« Reply #8 on: March 13, 2017, 09:59:12 PM »
This is how I'm currently experimenting with the so-called "Target Twist". I select a number of focus. It can be any SU number, I just happened to pick the number 1. All wagers gravitate towards and include #1.

The first 3 SU bets are obviously placed on the number 1. The 2 following DS bets are the 1-6 DS since no other DS includes the #1. Likewise.. I then bet 3 times on the 1-2-4-5 quad (or corner) - since it's the only quad that contains #1 (American Wheel) European quads can use #1 other ways. Next 3 bets on the 1-2-3 street. The six split bets give you an option..either a 1/2 split or the 1/4 split...(European wheels have more)... either or a combination of both is fine.... I usually bet the 1/2 to keep things "vertical" on the screen. And then of course all the 18 latter SU's are on #1 itself. The concentration is on #1 and it's table "neighbors". Keep in mind - it's all arbitrary... any number can be used. And BA's "follow the last result" method is just as applicable. My experimental method is pretty much fixed....while BA's is more flexible, as it follows the previous spin result (trend).  I'm not saying one way is better than the other....it's a matter of taste...and there may be other ways to apply the bet selection(s).

Bayes brings up a good point.... SU's may not be the optimal way to start the sequence....perhaps splits or something else. Or... if the SU's are used initially....perhaps just one or two would be sufficient (possibly more). I don't know at this point...I just wanted to start somewhere.

I've got a lot of fine tuning and maths to do on it for sure. I like throwing out fresh new ideas and getting community involved feedback. Collective minds can be powerful... and I always try to keep my mind as open as possible.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2017, 12:00:54 AM by Sheridan44 »
 
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Sheridan44

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Re: Target Twist
« Reply #9 on: March 13, 2017, 10:09:55 PM »
Hi Terminator....   
The reason I scaled back to 2 bets on the DS is that you' already burned 3 units on the SU's and only 2 bets on the DS's (whichever wins) could clear a 1 or 2 unit profit ..... a third DS bet if won would be a push (0 profit).  There maybe other ways to structure it....by rearranging.
 
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Re: Target Twist
« Reply #10 on: March 13, 2017, 11:15:08 PM »
Thanks for clarifying. I was playing wrong. When you said you begin with 3 Straight Up bets, I thought that meant 1 unit each on 3 different numbers for the first bet. My bad. So, I guess it's 1 unit on a S/U. Then if that fails, it's another 1 unit on S/U. and so on.
 
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Sheridan44

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Re: Target Twist
« Reply #11 on: March 13, 2017, 11:24:16 PM »
Hey Terminator....... don't trash your results just because you weren't betting the system correctly. You said it was doing well....keep it!   .......you may be on to something.
 

Reyth

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Re: Target Twist
« Reply #12 on: March 13, 2017, 11:49:24 PM »
I then bet 3 times on the 1-2-4-5 quad (or corner) - since it's the only quad that contains #1.

Sorry, there is 0-1-2-3 :/

Quote
Next 3 bets on the 1-2-3 street. The six split bets give you an option..either a 1/2 split or the 1/4 split...

Sorry, there is 0-1 :/

 
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Sheridan44

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Re: Target Twist
« Reply #13 on: March 13, 2017, 11:53:20 PM »
Ooops...I keep thinking American Wheel.........
 

Reyth

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Re: Target Twist
« Reply #14 on: March 14, 2017, 12:53:06 AM »
No problem that's what we are all here for, to help each other out.

Stil 0-1 available though, right?