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Author Topic: DS CALCULATIONS  (Read 311 times)

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Dane

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DS CALCULATIONS
« on: March 11, 2017, 08:07:35 AM »
I am not a mathematician, so please correct me if I am wrong. It seems that the probability of winning twice in a row (in two spins) on one Double Street (Six Line, Sechser-Transversale) is almost  similar to that  of winning immidiately on one single number. 1/37 = 0.02702702702.
                                                                                             (6/37)^2 = 0.02629656683.
The difference is just 0.00073046019!!!!
It should be obvious that the two steps on DS give us many opportunities. Right after the first hit we don´t have to risk everything.   We may choose be bet 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or six chips right after the first hit.

There is, however, another difference (there is nothing like stating the obvious): It takes TWO spins (or more). I am painfully aware of the TIME factor. Visiting my favourite  B&M Casino in my country only allows me to  see approx. 120 spins (I´ve got a train to catch). I am sure that 120 spins
 might not be sufficient. Next month, however, I am going to visit a Casino in Hamburg.  I´ll be able
to see approx. 160 or more spins per visit.
So I have chosen to look at this number and TWO independent Double Streets (chosen at random).
My goal is to win twice in a row on one of these within 160 spins.

                                                        TO BE CONTINUED.

« Last Edit: March 11, 2017, 08:09:06 AM by Dane »


 
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Jesper

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Re: DS CALCULATIONS
« Reply #1 on: March 11, 2017, 08:23:24 AM »
Look at the pay out of a single, and compare to the payout of a parlay on a DS.

1 gives 6 and parlay it 6 gives 36.   The pay out is as a single, but the single has a fraction better chance on a wheel with house advantages (i.e zero and double zero). On NOZ it is the same.
 
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Bayes

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Re: DS CALCULATIONS
« Reply #2 on: March 11, 2017, 08:55:14 AM »
I was about to say that; Jesper beat me to it.  :)

Of course you could always parley + X chips, but then you run the risk of losing more during the unsuccessful attempts. There's always a trade-off. Incidentally your chance of success is almost 90%.
 
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Dane

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Re: DS CALCULATIONS
« Reply #3 on: March 11, 2017, 09:22:56 AM »
Of course you are right. And rather quick! Time is still important, you know!  At some point  someone has to tip the staff  ("Stück")- but this pressure might be less  when winning on DS than winning on single numbers.

1 - (6/37)^2 = 0.97370343317. This is the probability of NOT winning twice  on ONE randomly chosen DS.
0.97370343317^160 = 0.01406929076.
As you know I intend to wager TWO DS.   So: 0.01406929076^2 = 0.00019794497.
There is a very small risk that I don´t reach the goal
It is close to 1/5052 = 0.0001979414.
360 X 14 = 5040.  It might happen in one session within 14 years  :)
 
 
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