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Author Topic: Dont Follow The Leader  (Read 765 times)

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Jake007

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Dont Follow The Leader
« on: February 14, 2017, 11:43:24 PM »
Ive been making use of some android roulette apps to track my spins lately. This one for example...

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.rain.bridge.rouletteassistant

Here is how Im playing right now...

I will spin 10 times, then log in my spins into the app. If I see an imbalance of outside bets or dozens, I will bet on those the next 10 spins. No more than 3 units bet at a time.

If I see 3 red & 7 black, I will bet on red.
If I see similar imbalances on 1-18 or 19-36, as well as even or odd I place 1 unit bet on them.
If I see an imbalance on the dozens, say 5 (1st doz), 4 (2nd doz), and 1 (3rd doz)... I will bet on the 3rd dozen. I also check the columns for any imbalance.

For the next 10 spins I may have 1 unit bet each spin or 2 or 3 depending on the imbalances. Every 10 spins I recheck the statistics to see if there are any imbalances going on and then bet accordingly the next 10 spins. So far i really like what I am seeing. Sometimes Im up 5 units after 10 spins, sometimes 1, sometimes none. Never any big holes of substance to dig out of. If after 50-100 spins if everything is fairly even, Im done at that table.

I am playing this way to minimize draw downs and I feel the wheel balances out over time. Its a conservative approach and while you dont get huge wins, theres really nothing at risk.

Give it a try and let me know what you think!
« Last Edit: February 14, 2017, 11:45:24 PM by Jake007 »


 
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Dane

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Re: Dont Follow The Leader
« Reply #1 on: February 15, 2017, 10:17:53 AM »
"Don´t follow leaders. Watch the parking meters" (Bob Dylan).
The parking meters may represent TIME! As far as I know, balance must not come soon.  I have often seen dozens of imbalances for days.  One dozen may appear only approx. 1/4 of  today´s spins.
Nothing at risk? I am afraid there is.  Modern equipment and progressions cannot save us from imbalances.  The idea of balance in itself may be superior in our heads today or in the head of d´Alembert ( the  French Age or Enlightenment).
 

Reyth

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Re: Dont Follow The Leader
« Reply #2 on: February 15, 2017, 02:49:33 PM »
Yes, I believe balance viewed in the conventional way simply does not have to happen for us in our very short sessions that are not even 1000 spins long. 

Statisticians seem to indicate that the balance is not with x & y spins balancing out in a 1:1 ratio but that as the number of trials increase, the overall % of the difference of x & y shrinks but for us "little guys" on the felt, the difference between x & y is like the Grand Canyon or Mt. Everest. 

However, that doesn't mean there isn't imbalance that we can exploit.  25 Red in a row is an imbalance regardless of how many Blacks have occurred in X amount of spins.  65 Red in 200 spins is also an imbalance. 

There are different ways of finding these imbalances and different ways in which they appear.  I strongly suspect that they are so common that we would be shocked if we knew how much.

I believe the safest and most advantageous "imbalances" to work with are EC's and/or groups of 18 numbers.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2017, 02:54:53 PM by Reyth »
 

MrPerfect.

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Dont Follow The Leader
« Reply #3 on: February 15, 2017, 03:57:46 PM »
Yes, I believe balance viewed in the conventional way simply does not have to happen for us in our very short sessions that are not even 1000 spins long. 

Statisticians seem to indicate that the balance is not with x & y spins balancing out in a 1:1 ratio but that as the number of trials increase, the overall % of the difference of x & y shrinks but for us "little guys" on the felt, the difference between x & y is like the Grand Canyon or Mt. Everest. 

However, that doesn't mean there isn't imbalance that we can exploit.  25 Red in a row is an imbalance regardless of how many Blacks have occurred in X amount of spins.  65 Red in 200 spins is also an imbalance. 

There are different ways of finding these imbalances and different ways in which they appear.  I strongly suspect that they are so common that we would be shocked if we knew how much.

I believe the safest and most advantageous "imbalances" to work with are EC's and/or groups of 18 numbers.
Whyle black or red is just a bunch of random numbers ( equally distrebuted on wheel ) and any imbalance in their apiarence is just stats fluctuations,  18 consequtive numbers is all other story. It's a half of wheel itself , wich can idicate that something is really going on ( depending on sample size, std observed, etc. .)
   However, if physical reasons are present, situation may and often will be dependent on conditions in wich sample have been taken.
   Sometimes ( often) it's not about half wheel but smaller sector ( sectors ) that do in fact show advantage. Rarely this " imbalance" is equally destributed in half of wheel, but it can happen as well....

     
 
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Dane

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Re: Dont Follow The Leader
« Reply #4 on: February 15, 2017, 04:22:18 PM »
You are right, Reyht. Short term balance INSIDE does not have to come today. I remember a statement from a math guy: You can throw a dice 100 times without hitting "six". Playing with my cheap calculator  I found that the probability is close to the absence of a randomly chosen number
in 665 spins!
The chance of hitting one particular chosen side  of a dice is of course close to hitting one chosen Double Street. We often see small series of sequences with DS.  Not every DS must come twice in a row tonight, as we alle know.  With just a few more numbers the probabilities change: Recently I have been looking at EIGHT NUMBERS. If you choose eight numbers, they probably appear tonight and probably in a series too! There are many ways to bet eight numbers. The cheapest way might
be wagering two independent Squares.  You may choose fours independent splits or carreaux,
eight single numbers or one DS plus one cheval.
Eight numbers also play a role in the basic IMBALANCE at the table: Exactly eight of the 18 Red numbers are EVEN. And exactly eight of the Black numbers are ODD. These simple facts ought to inspire someone. Most progression fans here use negative progressions. If I use  a progression at all, I prefer PAROLI in this way: Betting Black & Odd at the same time. And I only double after winning both at the same time. In all other cases: Back to minimum bets
« Last Edit: February 15, 2017, 04:24:35 PM by Dane »
 
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Reyth

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Re: Dont Follow The Leader
« Reply #5 on: February 15, 2017, 04:53:37 PM »
Hey thanks Dane, you losing your mojo, no word based quips for us in that last post? :P

Yes, I have looked into 8 numbers as well.  Here is what I ultimately found (despite the other advantages like you have cited too):

8 numbers with an imbalance, also leaves 29 other numbers on the board that can affect the statistics, so even if we are able to "sneak up" on a particular set of 8 numbers, we are also likely to encounter worse streaks than usual due to this "reverse engineering curse" from the other 29 numbers.

Its really hard to explain but we can clearly discover it if we run every possible set of 8 numbers through the same 57 spin sequence.  We will find that SOME of those number combinations will significantly exceed the normally max expected 57 hit timeframe for 8 numbers in general.

Its like a hidden dark side of roulette that waits to destroy the effect of our triggers, literally rendering them useless and then turning them against us because we dared to venture into the deep dark woods of sets of 8 numbers that remain imbalanced; each step we take into that darkness, the total number of combinations multiplies exponentially until we are looking at fantastically rare combinations that far, FAR, F-A-R exceed normal statistical expectation.



DON'T FAINT, DON'T RUN!  I HAVE GOOD NEWS!

If we work with at least 18 numbers this hidden dark side of roulette DISAPPEARS!



Put that in your cap and smoke it! :P
« Last Edit: February 15, 2017, 05:22:03 PM by Reyth »
 
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Dane

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Re: Dont Follow The Leader
« Reply #6 on: February 16, 2017, 12:14:00 PM »
Hey thanks Dane, you losing your mojo, no word based quips for us in that last post? :P

Yes, I have looked into 8 numbers as well.  Here is what I ultimately found (despite the other advantages like you have cited too):

8 numbers with an imbalance, also leaves 29 other numbers on the board that can affect the statistics, so even if we are able to "sneak up" on a particular set of 8 numbers, we are also likely to encounter worse streaks than usual due to this "reverse engineering curse" from the other 29 numbers.

Its really hard to explain but we can clearly discover it if we run every possible set of 8 numbers through the same 57 spin sequence.  We will find that SOME of those number combinations will significantly exceed the normally max expected 57 hit timeframe for 8 numbers in general.

Its like a hidden dark side of roulette that waits to destroy the effect of our triggers, literally rendering them useless and then turning them against us because we dared to venture into the deep dark woods of sets of 8 numbers that remain imbalanced; each step we take into that darkness, the total number of combinations multiplies exponentially until we are looking at fantastically rare combinations that far, FAR, F-A-R exceed normal statistical expectation.



DON'T FAINT, DON'T RUN!  I HAVE GOOD NEWS!

If we work with at least 18 numbers this hidden dark side of roulette DISAPPEARS!



Put that in your cap and smoke it! :P
As easy it was to tell black from white
it was all that easy to tell wrong from right
and our choiches were few so the thought never hit
that the one road we traveled would ever shatter or split

                     (Bob Dylan´s Dream)

Words chosen for certain people still trapped  in some dualistic thinking!  Better be holistic - and I don´t mean alco-holistic. Take 8 and push it - there it is for you: The symbol of infinity. Of course
holistic thinking should not be limited to looking at only eight, Reyth!

 
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Reyth

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Re: Dont Follow The Leader
« Reply #7 on: February 16, 2017, 06:02:59 PM »
Dang Dane, sorry I doubted you man! :/
 
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