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Jake007

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Your Thoughts on Outside Bet Progressions?
« on: February 10, 2017, 12:14:25 AM »
Ive been doing some research on outside bets. RED/BLACK, EVEN/ODD, and so on. Some of my early data right now suggests these findings...

If I place a bet on BLACK I have a 50% chance of hitting it. If I miss I then have a 72% chance of hitting black. If I miss that the third attempt has an 83% chance of hitting. And then if I miss that the fourth attempt has a 94% chance of hitting my outside bet.

Of course we know this could go on and on (even 30x being the record I think). Im just trying to look at the data differently. Our odds of hitting an outside bet go up if we miss.

If I were to do a 4 step progression (or less), what would be a conservative risk factor?

1u, 2u, 4u, 8u = 15u total (this would be the standard martingale)

What about something more conservative?

1u, 1u, 2,u 4u = 8u total
1u, 3u = 4u total

Those are just some ideas Im floating around. What would you attempt in this scenario?
« Last Edit: February 10, 2017, 12:16:31 AM by Jake007 »


 
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Reyth

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Re: Your Thoughts on Outside Bet Progressions?
« Reply #1 on: February 10, 2017, 12:22:22 AM »
Using this approach I so very heartily recommend that you do two things:

1) Find a post by Palestis and view his profile and select "show posts"
2) Perform the same for Harry J

They SERIOUSLY have the best approaches to this method.

Here is a method I like:

1) Bet one color until you lose twice and switch to the other color (1,2)
2) Bet until you miss twice and switch to the other color (4,8)
3) Bet until you lose twice (16,32)
4) Begin a very conservative labby

This method is described in full detail here:

http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=173.msg8285#msg8285

Its called the Wrangler's System.  Before you leave that book I suggest you also look up the one called The Author's System.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2017, 12:42:47 AM by Reyth »
 
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Real

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Re: Your Thoughts on Outside Bet Progressions?
« Reply #2 on: February 10, 2017, 12:33:36 AM »
Quote
1) Bet one color until you lose twice and switch to the other color (1,2)
2) Bet until you miss twice and switch to the other color (4,8)
Or you can:

Just stay on the same color and the system will perform the exact same.
 
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Jake007

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Re: Your Thoughts on Outside Bet Progressions?
« Reply #3 on: February 10, 2017, 12:46:07 AM »
Reyth, thanks for taking the time to post this! I really appreciate it.

Using this approach I so very heartily recommend that you do two things:

1) Find a post by Palestis and view his profile and select "show posts"
2) Perform the same for Harry J

They SERIOUSLY have the best approaches to this method.

Here is a method I like:

1) Bet one color until you lose twice and switch to the other color (1,2)
2) Bet until you miss twice and switch to the other color (4,8)
3) Bet until you lose twice (16,32)
4) Begin a very conservative labby

This method is described in full detail here:

http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=173.msg8285#msg8285

Its called the Wrangler's System.  Before you leave that book I suggest you also look up the one called The Author's System.
 
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Reyth

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Re: Your Thoughts on Outside Bet Progressions?
« Reply #4 on: February 10, 2017, 12:53:11 AM »
Quote
1) Bet one color until you lose twice and switch to the other color (1,2)
2) Bet until you miss twice and switch to the other color (4,8)
Or you can:

Just stay on the same color and the system will perform the exact same.

The two sequences are:

RRRRRR
RRBBRR

Broken down as follows:

1) Bet Red and it misses.

One Black has occurred, the chances of another is diminished in a sequence of 2.  Therefore it is best to bet Red again and this continues for all 6 spins.

Therefore I assert that betting one color is the best bet selection and I do not agree that they are "exactly the same".

Streaks are less probable than chop in their respective sequences; i.e. the longer a streak runs, the higher the probability that it will break OR the smaller the chance that it will continue.

Some mad scientists may argue that chop is also a streak and I will agree that it is the most likely streak of all possible streaks.

Here is how the statistics work out for an EC:



The above percentages show how many times (each figure represents a spin) a single set of 18 numbers failed to hit in a row and the percentage chance of that same EC hitting on that particular spin; this data is generated by taking the total number of hits and dividing it by the total number of spins. 

Notice the upward slope in the numbers.  This shows that the chances of an EC missing decrease with every spin as the entire sequence is continually examined as a whole.  Its just indisputable fact.

Watch out below for hair-splitting, "thats not how probabilty works" blah-blah-blah but dispute these results, they cannot do; you will hear them say, "of course that's the probability of getting a hit in x # spins" and then they have to stick their big fat BUT into it. 

I suggest examining the data and thinking for yourself.

PS Yes I am smarter than everyone else (just to get that old tired and worn out objection out of the way).
« Last Edit: February 10, 2017, 02:02:49 AM by Reyth »
 
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Trilobite

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Re: Your Thoughts on Outside Bet Progressions?
« Reply #5 on: February 10, 2017, 12:29:38 PM »

PS Yes I am smarter than everyone else (just to get that old tired and worn out objection out of the way).

Yes you might be smarter than me

But with EC I have the Funky D'

That squares us up at least I plea

So smarter than me? We're yet to see.

 :) :) :)
« Last Edit: February 10, 2017, 01:13:36 PM by Trilobite »
 
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Jake007

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Re: Your Thoughts on Outside Bet Progressions?
« Reply #6 on: February 10, 2017, 04:06:57 PM »
This wins internet of the day award :)


Yes you might be smarter than me

But with EC I have the Funky D'

That squares us up at least I plea

So smarter than me? We're yet to see.

 :) :) :)
 
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Jesper

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Re: Your Thoughts on Outside Bet Progressions?
« Reply #7 on: February 11, 2017, 04:04:48 AM »
How many spins before we are rather sure to be close to 48% hit-rate? 
We will sooner or later be there. I use to check it and very few sessions has more hits than miss.

We need a larger bank and allowed to place low bets.

Try 3 cent up on a loss and 2 cent down on a win. 5 cent down on every second win in a row.
This use to be longer sessions and we win if we can hit at expection (48%).

30+
25 win
29 loss
46.3 % hit

2+
4 win
7 loss
36.3 % hit

6+
2 win
3 loss
40% hit

6+
5 win
3 loss
62.5% hit

19+
9 win
10 loss
47.3% hit

101+
44 hit
38 miss
53.6%
« Last Edit: February 11, 2017, 04:56:22 AM by Jesper »
 
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palestis

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Re: Your Thoughts on Outside Bet Progressions?
« Reply #8 on: February 11, 2017, 04:47:30 PM »
Ive been doing some research on outside bets. RED/BLACK, EVEN/ODD, and so on. Some of my early data right now suggests these findings...

If I place a bet on BLACK I have a 50% chance of hitting it. If I miss I then have a 72% chance of hitting black. If I miss that the third attempt has an 83% chance of hitting. And then if I miss that the fourth attempt has a 94% chance of hitting my outside bet.

Those are just some ideas Im floating around. What would you attempt in this scenario?
Jake
If your research shows that the 4th attempt (after the first 3 failures), is 94% for a hit, then it makes a lot of sense to wait until you lose the first 3 attempts and then bet on the 4th , 5th and 6th attempt or more if you like.
Where the probability (as you say) of a hit starts with 94% and it probably goes all the way to 99% as you continue.  (You trade TIME for increased CERTAINTY).
The only thing you should do differently is to lose the first 3 bets without risking any actual money.
Instead you will lose those 3 bets VIRTUALLY.
As long as you make a bet before the roulette spins, it actually counts for all statistical purposes.
Whether you bet a penny, $5 or nothing it doesn't matter. What matters is that you actually made a bet.
With several roulettes under observation is not hard to find a roulette that caused you to lose the first 3 bets.
Then you start the actual betting  on the 4th spin and probably limit it up to 6 spins. Or more if the minimum is low.
The question is this:
After encountering 3 losses (virtual), and then betting the next 3 spins, will you always find yourself losing 7 times in a row?
Or if you bet 4 spins after 3 virtual losses, will you  continue to lose 8 times in a row frequently enough to lose your B/R?
I don't think so.
The only thing I do differently is that I don't rely on READY MADE virtual losses.
I don't walk around looking  to find 3 black, and then bet red. (or bet black to continue the streak -is the same thing).
Instead,  I make my virtual bets right there and then starting fresh.
The power of someone's "random guess" should not be underestimated.
It's only when the results are being handed ready made, when the power of guessing loses its strength.

« Last Edit: February 11, 2017, 06:21:40 PM by palestis »
 
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Rinad

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Re: Your Thoughts on Outside Bet Progressions?
« Reply #9 on: February 12, 2017, 02:09:17 PM »
Ive been doing some research on outside bets. RED/BLACK, EVEN/ODD, and so on. Some of my early data right now suggests these findings...

If I place a bet on BLACK I have a 50% chance of hitting it. If I miss I then have a 72% chance of hitting black. If I miss that the third attempt has an 83% chance of hitting. And then if I miss that the fourth attempt has a 94% chance of hitting my outside bet.

Those are just some ideas Im floating around. What would you attempt in this scenario?
Jake
If your research shows that the 4th attempt (after the first 3 failures), is 94% for a hit, then it makes a lot of sense to wait until you lose the first 3 attempts and then bet on the 4th , 5th and 6th attempt or more if you like.
Where the probability (as you say) of a hit starts with 94% and it probably goes all the way to 99% as you continue.  (You trade TIME for increased CERTAINTY).
The only thing you should do differently is to lose the first 3 bets without risking any actual money.
Instead you will lose those 3 bets VIRTUALLY.
As long as you make a bet before the roulette spins, it actually counts for all statistical purposes.
Whether you bet a penny, $5 or nothing it doesn't matter. What matters is that you actually made a bet.
With several roulettes under observation is not hard to find a roulette that caused you to lose the first 3 bets.
Then you start the actual betting  on the 4th spin and probably limit it up to 6 spins. Or more if the minimum is low.
The question is this:
After encountering 3 losses (virtual), and then betting the next 3 spins, will you always find yourself losing 7 times in a row?
Or if you bet 4 spins after 3 virtual losses, will you  continue to lose 8 times in a row frequently enough to lose your B/R?
I don't think so.
The only thing I do differently is that I don't rely on READY MADE virtual losses.
I don't walk around looking  to find 3 black, and then bet red. (or bet black to continue the streak -is the same thing).
Instead,  I make my virtual bets right there and then starting fresh.
The power of someone's "random guess" should not be underestimated.
It's only when the results are being handed ready made, when the power of guessing loses its strength.
the power of making virtual is definitely a tool to be used. I can testify to its logic. I use it all the time. as well as virtual sessions even. probabilities and odds dont just abide in casinos on the roulette wheel. they can be transported. so why not use virtual losses to your advantage? the cost is absolutely 0 $$$
 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: Your Thoughts on Outside Bet Progressions?
« Reply #10 on: February 12, 2017, 03:32:17 PM »
The triangle of Blaise Pascal tells us that a random streak of 4 ECs has the probability of once on 16 spins. So also a streak of the same EC has this probability. Start betting after  this has not happen in the last 16 spins You can also start the betting when the ratio R/B, E/O or H/L is much larger than 1.

SSB for the ECs uses also a virtual random streak of 10 numbers.

Real makes every time the mistake  that he does not make the difference between a strategy and a system
 
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scepticus

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Re: Your Thoughts on Outside Bet Progressions?
« Reply #11 on: February 13, 2017, 12:56:15 AM »
Dobbelsteen
Real makes the mistake of answering a different question to the one he thinks he is answering. And he doesn't know it !

« Last Edit: February 13, 2017, 06:59:32 AM by scepticus »
 

MrPerfect.

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MrPerfect.
« Reply #12 on: February 13, 2017, 02:20:37 AM »
Real makes the mistake of answering a different question to the one he thinks he is answering. And he doesn't know it !
Unfortunately he is right. I walked this path of following and switching patterns of EC. It just doesn't work on the long run. I would love it to be so easy, but it's definitely not the case.
 
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scepticus

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Re: MrPerfect.
« Reply #13 on: February 13, 2017, 07:06:18 AM »
Real makes the mistake of answering a different question to the one he thinks he is answering. And he doesn't know it !
Unfortunately he is right. I walked this path of following and switching patterns of EC. It just doesn't work on the long run. I would love it to be so easy, but it's definitely not the case.
Mr Perfect
I should have made it clear that  I was  agreeing with Dobbelsteen's opinion that Real lacks understanding.
Please avoid using the term "the long run" . A prediction / forecast without a timeline is absurd.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Your Thoughts on Outside Bet Progressions?
« Reply #14 on: February 13, 2017, 10:12:37 AM »
Most participants of this forum do not know the definition of the long run. Every experience players know that all systems end with a negative result. Long run is depended on  the largeness of the number bet. See my theory about the DTOP!