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Reyth

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12 X 7
« on: January 28, 2017, 01:04:29 AM »


Bet selection: Any Dozen
Win Goal: 10 units
Recovery Win Goal: 1 unit
Stop Loss: 546 units
Fail-Safe Bank: 1092 units

Progression: 1(0) 1(1) 2(2) 3(4) 4(7) 6(11) 9(17) (94%) (-26)

Recovery Schedule

1   26      26
2   52      78
3   78      156
4   104      260
5   130      390
6   156      546

If the main progression fails we fight using the recovery schedule.  The left-most number represents the unit size for the main progression.  With each progression failure, we move down in the recovery schedule. 

Its a judgment call when to move up (or even down) in the recovery schedule; I tend to move up prior to actually reaching profit, so as to protect against a second drawdown and I tend to like moving down in the schedule (temporarily) after a late hit. 

Moving upward locks in profits (but slows subsequent recovery) and moving downward increases recovery speed (but increases the risk as losses are increased if the progression should fail).

So far I have not seen anything below 4 in the recovery schedule and I have over 390 units in profit, which is why I decided it was time to post this.

I recommend 546 units because it will withstand the worst expected direct drawdown.



The Fail-Safe Bank is for when the worst loss should occur and allows for doubling (or more) the unit size for profit recovery.  I think its possible to make the Fail-Safe Bank from profits.  I would increase the Fail-Safe Bank before increasing the default unit size.

The Win Goal is 10 units at which time I would logout from any online server and switch tables for B&M wheels; this is an attempt to avoid the whipsaw removal of profits over prolonged sessions.

No trigger or bet selection method is recommended; I simply bet DZ1 non-stop.

I think this has an advantage over other methods for the following reasons:

1) Costs are kept very low because 12 numbers are being bet from the outside
2) Dynamic profit is obtained in 3 instances within the progression
3) High progression win rate is maintained because of betting 12 numbers
4) Recovery method is robust due to the low costs & high coverage
5) Sessions are kept extremely short to minimize adverse statistical exposure

This method is an inspired amalgamation of the methods of several players: Harry/Pales, Sputnik, Dobble, Talos, Kav & C.K. who is now over 220K in account balance.  The Fail-Safe Bank is my own idea. ;)

Special credit goes to a enthusiastic Youtube player who excitedly extolled the benefits of placing a single dozen bet over using the Martingale on an EC bet.  If you could hear how delighted this fellow was over his discovery, it would make you smile but unfortunately I cannot find his video anymore.

As things have evolved, I must also give special credit to another Youtube player known as Nick who wished that I should become a better roulette player.



Second Chute Bailout Option

There is a phenomenon that occurs once significant loss has been experienced, where the loss is larger than can be practically recouped for profit because of the statistical rarity that is required to produce that profit AND recoup all of the loss.

It is in these cases that it may be best to simply accept a smaller loss that can be recouped later, in a more "normal" statistical environment.

Even though C.K. doesn't specifically require this method, he has made passing mention of it and I think it is a hidden factor in his long-term success.

Here is an example from my own worst session:



Here we went down to level 4 and I even dropped voluntarily to level 5 to take advantage of some extra profit. 

This session see-sawed up and down, failing several times on level 2.  After over 200 spins, I decided that it was best to utilize the Bailout option and accept 19 units of loss rather than continue to try and force a profit from a statistically compromised wheel.

I think all great and successful roulette players do this; remaining aware of the behavior of the wheel during the session, recognizing a dangerous state & cutting the losses as soon as it is practical.

Here we can see that DZ2 was significantly over-represented and was the cause of my difficulties where I hit level 4 on two separate swings. 

A case may be made for staying in and waiting for the increased hits but in actuality there is no guarantee that this will occur and the state of the wheel is quite rare in its imbalance; i.e. profit can be taken later in a much safer statistical environment.

In fact, I simply started a new session & doubled my unit size for 14+ units of gain and then went back to 1 unit size for 6 more units to immediately regain all my losses in a single shot.



Here is a second example where I was struggling a bit up and down.  I noticed it alot sooner this time and recognized when I had an acceptable level of loss so I could end it, down 17 units.

The appropriate time will always occur as a series of clustered wins after a large amount of losses but profit is not fully restored.  This is a clear statistical sign that it is best to end the session and try to recoup the smaller loss in a NEW and hopefully NORMAL session.

And in fact, I recouped all losses in the very next session starting out doubling the unit size and back down to a single unit for the final 1/3rd of all the debt.



On this one, I took a loss of 16 units but this time I had some struggle down on Level 2 and had to end the new recovery session up a couple of units, before I came back and eclipsed all the debt in the above described and usual way.

UPDATE: I just doubled my 546 unit bank! TWICE IN A ROW!!!


I HAVE NEVER DONE ANYTHING LIKE THAT EVER IN THE GAME OF ROULETTE!


I am attempting to double it a THIRD TIME (not increasing the unit size).

Profit Status: +375 units
Working Debt: (-131 units) (-122 units) (-117 units)

(-185 units) (-64 units) (-93 units)

(-296)

Active Balance: 831 units

https://youtu.be/G1F9XIAzDRg
https://youtu.be/SyaIDcDoCV8
« Last Edit: February 01, 2017, 08:29:12 PM by Reyth »


 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: 12 X 7
« Reply #1 on: January 28, 2017, 09:07:37 AM »
When can we expect the graph of a session?
 
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Bayes

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Re: 12 X 7
« Reply #2 on: January 28, 2017, 12:19:55 PM »
Reyth, I assume you've tested this over a gazillion spins by simulation?  :)

BTW, who is "C.K"?
 

Reyth

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Re: 12 X 7
« Reply #3 on: January 28, 2017, 01:24:19 PM »
When I say "I haven't seen anything below Level 4", I mean that in my manual testing which is probably around 2000 spins by now.  I know that if I run a gazillion spins I am guaranteed to hit level 6 at least once (by direct drawdown) and I am pretty certain that isolated games will extend much lower (successive drawdowns).  I can study these sequences at a later time.

For now, I am just manually testing to get a first-hand experiential feel for how things flow.  I am also looking to double my bank which will be quite a significant event in my eyes.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2017, 01:31:12 PM by Reyth »
 

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Re: 12 X 7
« Reply #4 on: January 28, 2017, 04:29:08 PM »
If the method works, then why is there a win goal?

If you win, then how long must you stay away before you can play again? 1 day, five hours, five minutes?

Do you need to do anything special in between sessions that will enable you to win when you return?
 

Reyth

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Re: 12 X 7
« Reply #5 on: January 28, 2017, 04:34:15 PM »
If the method works, then why is there a win goal?

Because the longer a session runs, the greater the chances of profitable results being reversed.

Quote
If you win, then how long must you stay away before you can play again? 1 day, five hours, five minutes?

Just need a new session environment.  I play online and for me that simply means logging out and logging back in.

Quote
Do you need to do anything special in between sessions that will enable you to win when you return?

If it was a particulary tough or enlightening session, I should probably want to analyze what happened.

The success of any system is based on our ability to be actively aware of playing conditions so that we can make critical decisions about our course of action.  A player cannot win consistently playing robotically.
 

Reyth

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Re: 12 X 7
« Reply #6 on: January 28, 2017, 08:14:01 PM »
I will post additional spin reports here (until further notice).

I just accidentally hit level 5 (got tagged when voluntarily on level 4) and voluntarily went to level 6 to grab some extra profit.  I brought it back up to 20 units and crashed back down to level 4 again before it suddenly dawned on me that I was in a bad wheel state.

So I carefully brought it back up to 19 units again and simply took the small loss after a cluster of wins.  Its pretty much as simple as listening to what the wheel is telling us.

So far no problems, plenty of bankroll to handle it all.  However, it was pretty shocking to watch it blow through 2 levels so rapidly.  I should of realized my situation and took the 20 units small loss the first time.

Its kind of fun surfing the levels, focusing on expectation and spin results.

Update: Next session restored all profit.





This is an expectation tracker.  It generates a running total like in counting cards with blackjack, based on where you gain each hit in the progression; positive means you're due, negative means you're being overpaid.

The first hit in a session is always free (0 value) unless it is a positive figure.

Its no surprise when you are -5 that the bottom drops out on the progression. 

This is the reason we keep the sessions so short; we are attempting to grab profits and bail before the wheel can swing back and take them away.  I just had a session with 11 units of profit and a count of -8, MAN it felt good to bail on that!!

When we drop to a lower level, every spin is +1 to the count until we get a hit and things continue as normal from there.

3:+1 is the sweet spot because not only do you get paid 2 units but you get to increase the count by 1 as well!  We shouuld always want to take our hits outside of expectation so the profit train just keeps a rollin' along!

Tracking the expectation in this way has inspired me with an experimental practice which is to not end a session that has a significantly positive count until there is a sign of at least a minor reversal; in other words, stay in the session as long as conditions are looking at their best.

A concrete example occurred in one of my recent sessions where the count was +3 when the 10 unit goal was achieved.  I stayed in and took an additional hit on the the very next spin which brought the count down to +1 and that was enough for me to see in order to end the session; i.e. there is no need to see how much the wheel would regard an early hit like that.

In another session, I had a failure and the count went out to +11.  I decided to drop down to Level 3 and I stayed there and got several hits until it dropped to +8, surpassing my original 10 unit exit goal.  I then dropped back to Level 1, taking a couple more hits and exited at +6. 

The reason I exited at +6 is because it represented a 5 point reversal in the count which would quite likely require a short term drawdown to compensate; i.e. counter-swings work both ways, for us (when we are down) and against us (when we are up).

Early test results on this expectation tracking are indicating that even Red Level outcomes are being easily reversed by carefully following the count, staying at lower than natural Levels until the count starts to reverse, which generally creates actual session profit.

Its definitely a judgment call on how much profit you want to attempt to generate subsequent to two or more failures (i.e. Red Level Outcome):

small loss (extremely conservative)
small win (conservative)
large win (aggressive)

Outcomes

Easy Win [+10-+12 units] -- The progression simply doesn't fail for 10-12 units of win. (51%-61% chance)

Struggle Win [+1 or +2 units] -- The progression fails but recovery is easily gained. (59%-82% chance)

Struggle Loss [(?)15-30(?) units] -- The progression fails at least twice and the session must be ended as soon as practical, gauging the Expectation Count and current debt.

It is elementary to recognize which outcome we are facing as the results unfold and thus the proper course of action is clearly defined.

The reason for the range of percentages is the random outcomes of either 1 unit or 2 units in payout; this clearly shows the benefit of dynamic payout (as opposed to EC static payout).

Here is the progression if we win 2-3 units on every coup:

1 2 3 4 6 9 14 (-39)

I wonder if it is worth it?  An extra 13 units on Level 1 would increase profitable chances to more than 72% per session....

It could be that "Expectation Count Surfingtm" should be used to increase profit percentages while keeping the progression cost as low as possible...?

I will try and map out this surfing method:

Some of the criteria are based on the result of the last spin while others are absolute rules.

INTERPOLATION OF THE ZERO: This tends to make the current score 1 point weaker (+1) for each zero encountered BUT it also tends to indicate a strong future since the zero is the least likely to repeat of any number (since it appeared).  I am not sure we will be able to make sense of the zero as each counter-move we make is a catch-22.

Expectation Count Surfing

COUNT<>DEBT<>ACTION

-1 (or less)<>+10 (or greater)<>END SESSION
-5 (or less)<>+0 (or less)<>REDUCE CHIPS TO 1 UNIT
+4 (or greater)<>+0 (or greater)<>MOVE DOWN 1 LEVEL
-1 (or less)<>+1 (or greater & prev. failure)<>END SESSION

There is a method that runs while there is debt and the count is positive.

If the last spin is:

-EV go up a Level
+EV go down a Level
+0 EV remain at the same Level


This surfing method should be monitored with the debt where benchmarks are noted for +1 profit & +10 profit and risk is reduced as the profit grows and/or the count shrinks. 

In other words, keep in mind that counter-swings WILL happen and you when they do, you want to be at Level 1 or close to it (or better yet closed out of the server). 

Keeping in mind the previous, you don't want to raise up a level TOO soon; i.e. if the debt in units isn't close to or below 10 X (current level-1) you probably don't want to lower but remain on the same level until the debt is lowered to a more acceptable amount.

Obviously if the count becomes negative or there has been an overall swing in the count of +5 or more, you should be rushing towards the exit as fast as is practical.

The key concept is that apart from whether the count is actually negative or positive, its not the number of the count as much as it is THE MOVEMENT IN A SINGLE DIRECTION that the count has undergone; by way of example, in a recent Red Outcome session, I ended it with a count of +7 because it had come down from +15!!  My total profit there was +27 units and I intended to give 0 units back on a short-term drawdown because 15 points in any one direction is such a statistical rarity!

The Two Cardinal Rules

1) The more the count shrinks, the closer you should be to Level 1/logged out. 
2) The more profit you have, the closer you should be to Level 1/logged out.

https://youtu.be/zqYGLiUXDLA

Most of the time Red Outcomes will be profitable (PURPLE) but on the rare occasion they will simply loop in a stale manner, seemingly to not recognize a largely inflated count (BLACK); this is due to short-term counter-swings and is characterized by multiple failures (3-4+) in a single session.

When our session is BLACK we need to either terminate it in the Red (-15 to -30 units) or in the Orange (+1 or +2 units). 

So far I have not encountered a BLACK session that could not be ended in the Orange (when attempted); this is because there is a short-term recovery loop that generates profit for the aggressive bettor.

UPDATE: Ok, I finally had my first BLACK-BLACK session.  The count went to over 50 and after seeing that it just kept blowing through thresholds and not recovering, I decided to simply end the session at 1025 units bankroll, down from 1331 units.

This sort of session is obviously very rare, where it ignores the count.  Therefore I think the solution is to put a stop loss on the count of +20.  It will be much less expensive to simply take that loss instead of trying to battle a crazy wheel.

I have never seen a count above 20 before now, so the stop loss is quite stable.

Now, as far as recovering my 306 units of debt, I think I should try to double my unit size but only shoot for a win goal of 15 units.  This should fully recover the debt in 20 sessions and lower my overall risk because only 6-7 coups will end the session.

I will update any debt recovery details here and track it all in the main post.

UPDATE: All the debt is now eclipsed.  Very interesting that I encountered my second 20 count ever during this recovery; it was because the wheel kept giving late hits over and over during the progression.  So, because of this, I logged out before I had fully recovered the debt and got the rest in the very next session.

Final note on this 300 unit debt, it represents me trying to deal with a 20 count and then a 30 count and 40 and 50 before giving up.  Surrendering at only 20 will be far less expensive.

UPDATE: I am now trying a new method where if the count goes -5 or less, I end the session before hitting the 10 unit win goal.  Why push it, right?



UPDATE: Wow.  I just had my double-BLACK failure during recovery.  I guess it had to happen eventually; this 3 time around at doubling the bank has been estraordinarily tough.  The good news is that the bankroll is holding quite well.

I will track any relevant details here and the totals in the main post.

ZOMGOSH!  Triple double-BLACK failure!  At this point the bankroll is slipping quite a bit, in fact it has cracked -- making a separate note here:

(-131 units) (-143 units) (-213 units)

I will be quite aggressive on the recovery and will track the details as usual.

UPDATE: Got hit with ANOTHER double-BLACK during recovery.  My balance is reduced to 831 units, total damage from this failed recovery attempt is -638 units. 

Granted my account is up almost +300 units from where I started 3 days ago but I can't help feeling that there is something wrong with my approach somehow.

I need to think about this some more.  At the very least, the double-BLACK phenomenon is not as rare as it first appeared to be.

« Last Edit: February 01, 2017, 08:24:25 PM by Reyth »