Author Topic: A question for the math guys  (Read 241 times)

Duncan

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A question for the math guys
« on: January 27, 2017, 07:59:52 PM »
I d like to ask a question to the math guys please.

Is it possible to be so lucky and by betting only 1 doz FLAT in every spin in 2400 spins to gain +163 Chips?
If I am not mistaken this is something like +14,72 advantage for the player?

Is it possible to hit a sooooo lucky sequence of 2400 spins?

Please I am not trying to brag here!!! I am also amazed by these results and I would like to know the math guys opinions.



 
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gizmotron

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Re: A question for the math guys
« Reply #1 on: January 27, 2017, 11:08:12 PM »
I d like to ask a question to the math guys please.

Is it possible to be so lucky and by betting only 1 doz FLAT in every spin in 2400 spins to gain +163 Chips?


A low sample of 2400 spins could be eight days in a row at 300 spins per session or day. If all you were to win was 1 unit on each bet then +163 is not out of the question. If you really want to know, test it 100 times the 2400 spins. That will be close enough for a mathematical result.
 

Ainz

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Re: A question for the math guys
« Reply #2 on: January 28, 2017, 02:58:19 AM »
Quite common.

The mean of a dozen in 2400 spins: 2400 * 12/37 = 778,378
STD for a dozen in 2400 spins:  (2400 * 12/37 * 25/37)^1/2 = 22,933

So, 1STD: 22,933
      2STD: 45,866
      3STD: 68,799
      4STD: 91,732

3 and 4 STD are quite normal, so assuming you have 3STD you can have 778,378 + 68,799 = 847,177 hits.

Hitting 847 times you have a profit of 1694 and you loose other 1553 bets. 1694-1553 = 141 units (between 3STD and 4STD, but closer to 3).

So yes, you had luck selecting that dozen but the numbers spun are in a normal range.
 
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Duncan

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Re: A question for the math guys
« Reply #3 on: January 28, 2017, 06:19:14 AM »
thank you Ainz for the mathematical explanation.
The doz was not always the same doz .
I will test more.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: A question for the math guys
« Reply #4 on: January 28, 2017, 08:33:59 AM »
2400 spins have nearly the feature of a long run session. A profit is lucky exception. I expect normally a loss between 0 and 2,7%. The outcome of a short run session is unpredictable. See my theory about the Dobbelsteen Turn over point( DTOP). For a strategy the anomalies of the STD are very useful.
 
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