Author Topic: Some thoughts about the EC bet.  (Read 537 times)

Jesper

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1141
  • Thanked: 549 times
  • Gender: Male
Some thoughts about the EC bet.
« on: January 26, 2017, 11:59:30 AM »

When ever we play EC, we are in a risk of facing a longer losing streak. Our progression can sky rocket. Some methods are aggressive like Martingale and some are very slow it needs a very long good winning to recover from a bad and we turn over a lot, sometimes much more than in aggressive play.

We should not allways try to keep our bets down, at least not while checking our bank slowly drain out. The result is the same as a more aggressive betting at the end.

The math and the chance to win, is not much different what ever method we use,
it all depend on the numbers fallen, and we have very little knowledge of that.

Methods which will give a win if we succeed to win about a third of our bets, looks pretty good at the first glance. And it is not bad if and only if it survive some larger unlucky streak. Over time we should with near 50% chance be able to win more than a third.

It will however be situations when it takes  a lot of spins, it can stretch to about 200 or more. So our methods have to be able to survive things like 15 loss in a row.

A labby wins with less hits than misses, but our problem is the high stakes which can easy hit the table limit. The same goes for Martingale, which has the strength of solve the session with one hit. Still both will end as losing.

All methods will at a time end losing. Some can delay it enough to be winners for long time, at least for some players.

I sometimes try to combine classical methods (which all are, they are invented with pen and paper not computers)

Lets start as a Labby.

We write down an even number of number one:

1 1 1 1 1 1

We start as a normal labby with two chips.

If win we do as a normal Labby, remove two figures.
1 1 1 1
To try to avoid bet go high due to a
long losing streak we do not add the loss (2) to the end, rather start a new
line using the 2.
1 1 1 1 1 1
2
If we have finish the first line, we check the second. If it is less figures
than 6 (we have 6 this example), it is a sign of progress. If it has been a very bad run, resulting in more than 6 figures, we move the surplus to a third line using bet sized 4.
2 2 2 2 2 2
4

We try to finish the line containing the 2 and bet 4 at the time. On any loss we put the 4 in the line we not play, and finish the line of two.
If when start at line with 4 units, we are not bad back if they are less than 6. The same here we use a limit of number in each line, so if the line we not play is more than the starting (6), we have to make a new line with the next step.

As we can see, this is both Martingale and the labby. We should win at the point the session ends, and we have at least won a third of the spins.

I am not sure if I am right on this statement, but it has been true the sessions I have been played. Have been up to 32 units ones, and in 50 sessions won 300 units. I did the play in real money, at a zer0-wheel with chips of a cent.


 
The following users thanked this post: kav, december, Bayes, Reyth

Jesper

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1141
  • Thanked: 549 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Some thoughts about the EC bet.
« Reply #1 on: January 26, 2017, 02:31:58 PM »
609 spins and  222 in profit. It never went over 32 in progression. As it use to be most went easy and got the 6 units, but a few near endless before coming out.
 

Bayes

  • Veteran Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 653
  • Thanked: 536 times
  • roulettician.com
Re: Some thoughts about the EC bet.
« Reply #2 on: January 26, 2017, 02:40:09 PM »
Jesper, do you test all your systems manually or do you use a bot?
 

Jesper

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1141
  • Thanked: 549 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Some thoughts about the EC bet.
« Reply #3 on: January 26, 2017, 02:55:17 PM »
Jesper, do you test all your systems manually or do you use a bot?

I mostly test in real play using 1 cent . If I for some reason want to test it running a software I try to make one.

I do not own a bot for playing, the  real play is manual.
 

Jesper

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1141
  • Thanked: 549 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Some thoughts about the EC bet.
« Reply #4 on: January 26, 2017, 06:43:03 PM »
Over 1000 spins, and it went well. But one  of the sessions went very hard. It was stakes up over 1000 units, it was 16 losses in a row, and after some play, a long losing streak again.

Any other method I know would not survive. Winning slow as some session is hard and long. Win lose every second spin. The point here is not how much we are back in money, rather the quote between losses and wins, and as this wins if we have less than expected winning spins, the only defense a bank has against a large bankroll is table max and/or table min.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2017, 06:49:19 PM by Jesper »
 

Jesper

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1141
  • Thanked: 549 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Some thoughts about the EC bet.
« Reply #5 on: January 27, 2017, 02:05:29 AM »
I have tried if it is more hard to play a longer string or not. It will of course take longer time and more spins. I have done 10,20 and 40 starting numbers and I could not see much of a difference.  We win very slow, and the method is not suitable for larger chips, unless we have a lot of money we can risk.

I have in ALL the play this time had a lot more losing than winning spins.

This tests and play was done on a wheel with one zero, the results should be better on  NOZ wheel, and there are such wheels with a bit higher min bet, so the bank need to be 5 times bigger, to be able to hold the same drowndown.
 

Real

  • Fighting the war on absurdity one foolish idea at a time.
  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1210
  • Thanked: 128 times
  • Gender: Female
Re: Some thoughts about the EC bet.
« Reply #6 on: January 27, 2017, 02:09:21 AM »
Rather than waste so much time testing, why don't you just do some math instead?
 

Jesper

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1141
  • Thanked: 549 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Some thoughts about the EC bet.
« Reply #7 on: January 27, 2017, 02:51:05 AM »
Rather than waste so much time testing, why don't you just do some math instead?

It is done, and it shows it has the property which all system has, it will lose sometimes. What I have done now is to have some fun and won a few chips.

I know it can be possible to avoid a loss for rather long.
 

Jesper

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1141
  • Thanked: 549 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Some thoughts about the EC bet.
« Reply #8 on: January 27, 2017, 03:18:23 AM »
Due to the setting in this forum, whitout memory in the input, in case the log in time expired, I lost some information.
Not only it disappear, when logging in an input  window will show up, but for a new topic, and that is not easy to see.
I do not want to be logged forever, and it should be fixed.

Anyhow I do not have the all figures as I paste it into nothing.

I started using 50 in the string, and run it until the end. my point was it is not the balance which is important, it is the decrease of numbers in the string on each level.

The string was (approx as it is lost).

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

16 16 16 16

32 32

In all the play testing this I have used LOW all the time, The RNG could adopt if they want to, even if we give a cryptographic string.

If it is true we never see 200 spin with less then 65 of the losing kind, it should win here, at least with a generous table limit and a larger bank. I doubt that is a limit, it may not have been recorded, but it can not be impossible, rather very seldom happen. On a NOZ it would perform better, but there is an more narrow table limit and higher min bet.  The result shows 52 instead of 50 due to an error in betting.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2017, 03:23:27 AM by Jesper »
 

Jesper

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1141
  • Thanked: 549 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Some thoughts about the EC bet.
« Reply #9 on: January 27, 2017, 04:34:26 AM »
I started a string of hundred 100, which when should end with 100 plus( Normally).

After finished the 100 of one I got  52 in the string of 2 (not very good a lot more loss than win).
29 in the string of 4, which mean more loss than win.

9 in the string of 8, more win than loss.

13 in the string of 16, terrible over 75% losing bets, 16 in a row.

4 in  the string of 32  more win than loss.
2 in the string of 64  half win half loss. Still behind as the large number of losses before.
1 on 128  hit first time and this only bet change from minus to plus.

Total very much more losing bets than winning.

The win is 116 which is 16 more than 100, due to odd numbers in some strings.

It went trough but barley, the  losing spins outperformed winning much, sure by ratio 65 35.

We may use shorter strings.
 
The following users thanked this post: december, Reyth