Author Topic: How Long Will It Go Without Hitting? Progression Designer  (Read 7649 times)

Real

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How Long Will It Go Without Hitting? Progression Designer
« on: August 08, 2014, 12:28:03 AM »

There is a simple test to help you determine just how long a dozen number bet can go without hitting on the roulette wheel..
 
It simply requires a pen and paper.
 
 
Here's how you do it.  Take the number of numbers in your bet ...12...and divide by two, and then divide the answer by two again, and again, until you reach ZERO. 
 
For example: A dozen bet:   12/2 = 6, 6/2 = 3, 3/2 = 1.5..., etc.  Continue dividing each answer by two until you reach ZERO.  After you've reached zero, all you have to do is count the number of times that you had to divide by 2 in order to actually reach ZERO.  The number of times that you had to divide by 2 will tell you just how long your bet can go without hitting in the long run.  And it's very accurate!  It's also ideal for designing "just the right up as you lose progression".
 
 
Remember: It's important that you use a pen and paper, rather than a calculator, so that you can count the actual number of times that you had to divide by 2.  You must actually reach zero, otherwise you will get the wrong answer.
 
 
Good Luck!
 
-Real
« Last Edit: August 08, 2014, 12:29:40 AM by Real »


 

Jake007

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Re: How Long Will It Go Without Hitting? Progression Designer
« Reply #1 on: August 08, 2014, 12:40:39 AM »

There is a simple test to help you determine just how long a dozen number bet can go without hitting on the roulette wheel..
 
It simply requires a pen and paper.
 
 
Here's how you do it.  Take the number of numbers in your bet ...12...and divide by two, and then divide the answer by two again, and again, until you reach ZERO. 
 
For example: A dozen bet:   12/2 = 6, 6/2 = 3, 3/2 = 1.5..., etc.  Continue dividing each answer by two until you reach ZERO.  After you've reached zero, all you have to do is count the number of times that you had to divide by 2 in order to actually reach ZERO.  The number of times that you had to divide by 2 will tell you just how long your bet can go without hitting in the long run.  And it's very accurate!  It's also ideal for designing "just the right up as you lose progression".
 
 
Remember: It's important that you use a pen and paper, rather than a calculator, so that you can count the actual number of times that you had to divide by 2.  You must actually reach zero, otherwise you will get the wrong answer.
 
 
Good Luck!
 
-Real

DELETE DELETE DELETE... I gotta keep it clean in here!

We'll just call the first post above "trolling".
 

Jake007

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Re: How Long Will It Go Without Hitting? Progression Designer
« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2014, 12:49:40 AM »
To add some constructive tool to this thread, I use the "Steady Dozen" a lot. It has shown me once that it missed a dozen more than 30 times. Obviously its extremely rare. I ran my system as if I were playing for 365 days (one year). I saw it come up once. 20x or more is still rare but it does happen.

http://www.loothog.com/Systems/SteadyDozen.php
 

Jake007

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Re: How Long Will It Go Without Hitting? Progression Designer
« Reply #3 on: August 08, 2014, 01:08:35 AM »


Why dont we test it out. On that site I input this info...

bankroll: 999999999
profit target: 1000000
max spins: 1000000
20x fake progression: 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20
wait for 15 losses in a row before betting.

So we have 1 million spins max with a 20 spot progression plus 15 losses = possibility of losing up 35 in a row. It took a few minutes to render the data but the highest it hit was 26 dozen losses in a row, with only one other time hitting over 20. You would have to do 2,800 spins a day per year which is ridiculous. Lets do something more manageable like 300 spins a day. Thats over 9 years worth of gambling data right there and only went to the 26th loss.

THE BOTTOM LINE: You can easily create a profitable system if you study the data.
 

Real

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Re: How Long Will It Go Without Hitting? Progression Designer
« Reply #4 on: August 08, 2014, 01:20:32 AM »
Quote
20x fake progression: 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20 wait for 15 losses in a row before betting.-Jake


 Why wait?  How does waiting change the probability of winning on the next spin?


-Real

« Last Edit: August 08, 2014, 01:25:00 AM by Real »
 

Real

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Re: How Long Will It Go Without Hitting? Progression Designer
« Reply #5 on: August 08, 2014, 01:30:12 AM »

Let's see:

Probability of not hitting a specific dozen for 20 spins is: 26/38 x 26/38 x 26/38 x 26/38 x 26/38 x 26/38 x 26/38 x 26/38 x 26/38 x 26/38 x 26/38 x 26/38 x 26/38 x 26/38 x 26/38 x 26/38 x 26/38 x 26/38 x 26/38 x 26/38 and the probability that it will go one more spin without hitting is.... 26/38.  If you look carefully, you'll see that it doesn't matter how long you wait, or where you enter.  The probability of it not hitting on the next spin remains the same, regardless of where you enter the game.
 

Jake007

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Re: How Long Will It Go Without Hitting? Progression Designer
« Reply #6 on: August 08, 2014, 05:22:08 AM »

Why wait?  How does waiting change the probability of winning on the next spin?

OK look... I know exactly what you are doing.

But I'll answer the question for newbies out there. After one million spins, the greatest stretch was 26 losses of dozens in a row. You could create a 26 level progression (good luck) or you can create a smaller progression of say 16 levels and also incorporate 10 virtual misses. If a dozen doesnt come up after 10 times you start your monetary progression. 10+16 = 26. In 9 years worth of data that system would fail approximately ONE TIME. So that system would work 99.999999% of the time. Thats almost as good as flying on an airplane.

I dont know how you can refute this in any way since you like to use mathematics and what I am giving you is data, not theoretical stuff.
« Last Edit: August 08, 2014, 05:24:10 AM by Jake007 »
 

Real

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Re: How Long Will It Go Without Hitting? Progression Designer
« Reply #7 on: August 08, 2014, 05:03:00 PM »
Quote
After one million spins, the greatest stretch was 26 losses of dozens in a row.

Talk about a false sense of security.

Jake,

I've seen it go 31 times without hitting in samples that were much smaller (only 4k spins!).  In roughly 16k spins, most of the dozens had gone at least 22 to 24 times without hitting. 

I have millions of spins on which I can run simulations.  I can tell you right now, that you're testing is underestimating how long it can go, or that you haven't really run such tests.

Once, in AC at the Taj Mahal, 2007.  The black went 26 times without hitting!

-Real
« Last Edit: August 08, 2014, 05:07:17 PM by Real »
 

Jake007

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Re: How Long Will It Go Without Hitting? Progression Designer
« Reply #8 on: August 08, 2014, 05:08:54 PM »

I've seen it go 31 times without hitting in samples that were much smaller.  In roughly 16k spins, most of the dozens had gone at least 22 to 24 times without hitting. 

I have millions of spins on which I can run simulations.  I can tell you right now, that you're testing is underestimating how long it can go.

-Real

I too have seen it go 31 times in previous testing, but you and I both know how extremely rare it is. That said, if you have 16,000 spins, losing one whole round of progression to the 26th time is not going to break your bank. You know it, so why fight it.

So this is the how & why people create systems around such data. Conservative players dont want to go 26 progressions, thus preserving their capital.
« Last Edit: August 08, 2014, 05:11:15 PM by Jake007 »
 

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Re: How Long Will It Go Without Hitting? Progression Designer
« Reply #9 on: August 08, 2014, 09:51:47 PM »

Jake,
 
You are sorely mistaken if you think 26 times is the limit for a dozen to sleep in one million trials.


(38 pockets / number of numbers remaining on the wheel outside of the bet)^ length of time sleep = about how many spins it will sleep on average.  Of course it could sleep much longer or less.
 
On average, a dozen spins will go 26 times without hitting about every 19,278 spins.  Of course it could happen in the next 26 spins.
 
 
On average, a dozen spins will go 23 times without hitting about every 6174 spins.  Of course it could happen in the next 23 spins.

It's a fools folly to chase such things with an up as you lose progression.
« Last Edit: August 08, 2014, 09:55:49 PM by Real »
 

Jake007

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Re: How Long Will It Go Without Hitting? Progression Designer
« Reply #10 on: August 08, 2014, 10:05:49 PM »

Jake,
 
You are sorely mistaken if you think 26 times is the limit for a dozen to sleep in one million trials.


(38 pockets / number of numbers remaining on the wheel outside of the bet)^ length of time sleep = about how many spins it will sleep on average.  Of course it could sleep much longer or less.
 
On average, a dozen spins will go 26 times without hitting about every 19,278 spins.  Of course it could happen in the next 26 spins.
 
 
On average, a dozen spins will go 23 times without hitting about every 6174 spins.  Of course it could happen in the next 23 spins.

It's a fools folly to chase such things with an up as you lose progression.


So based on your own numbers about 4 times a year it would go 26 times (or more). Its plausible to build a system around this information.

Using a basic dozens progression for 16 levels:

Here is 3 months....
30 days = $100/day = $3000/mo
30 days = $100/day = $3000/mo
29 days = $100/day = $2900/mo
1 bad day -$800

$8900 - $800 = +$8100 per quarter or $32,400 per year

You're still up overall. Even if you only aimed at half that profit per day...

$4450 - $800 = $3650 per quarter or $14,600 per year
 

Jake007

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Re: How Long Will It Go Without Hitting? Progression Designer
« Reply #11 on: August 08, 2014, 10:14:15 PM »


On average, a dozen spins will go 26 times without hitting about every 19,278 spins.
So based on your own numbers about 4 times a year it would go 26 times (or more).


I used 300 spins per day as a reference. I personally am doing less than 300 spins a day, but your mileage may vary.
 

albalaha

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Re: How Long Will It Go Without Hitting? Progression Designer
« Reply #12 on: August 18, 2014, 05:34:36 AM »
Dear Kav,
         It is a long debate/lecture/compilation to put here. I prefer to show links in cases where it is not feasible to copy-paste the entire material. Further, this topic does not belong to me,so I used the link for reference, if anybody is really interested to know. One more thing I like, I do not write one topic in two or more forums. No duplicate posts for me. What I write here, will be exclusive to this place. If I need the same further, in any other blog/forum, I would prefer to put the link of this place than copy-paste contents from here. If it looks offensive to you, in any manner, please let me know.
 

Real

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Re: How Long Will It Go Without Hitting? Progression Designer
« Reply #13 on: August 19, 2014, 05:11:44 PM »
Quote
Well, I did not want to comment in this topic since it all started with a bad joke by Real @ Xander.  Limit of no hit of a bet can not be determined by any mathematical formula. Actually, there can be no limit of it, that can be eternal and perfect. If you have witnessed no hit of an EC for 26 spins, a day, there will be 27 or even more.Albalaha

It's not just a joke.  It's to make a point.  Randomness is randomness.  It has no limit, other than the confines of the sample size.  (Meaning, you can't see a run of 20 reds in a row if you're only playing 10 spins.) 

The point of the post was to demonstrate that you'll never be able to design an "up as you lose progression" that will work in the long run.  Just when you think you're really close to making work, infinity stands between you and your goal.

-Real
 

albalaha

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Re: How Long Will It Go Without Hitting? Progression Designer
« Reply #14 on: August 20, 2014, 02:56:57 AM »
I understood your sarcasm and hidden message too but your post and your method to calculate the limit may lead many to believe that to be true. Don't let another fallacy go rampant.