Author Topic: A Really Bad System  (Read 18903 times)

Real

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A Really Bad System
« on: August 03, 2014, 10:04:27 PM »

The reason I felt the need to speak up about this dangerous system is because I felt that the book was very misleading.   It made wild claims that the author was a professional gambler - that somehow consistently won, by playing such an absurd and dangerous system.  Such a ridiculous claim will lead na├»ve gambler's, ignorant of basic probability, into believing that they too could somehow make a living playing such a risky system.   Had the author not pretended to make a living from the system, then I would have remained silent, and the system would have simply been a source of amusement, a joke, and played for entertainment only.

Reasons why The Martin Blakey system is so dangerous, won't work, and should be only played for amusement/entertainment:

The book basically recommends playing the 16 numbers that are the coldest under performers.  Such a bet selection is a very risky scheme.  Here's why.  If the player is playing on a live wheel, then there's a chance that the wheel is biased.  (Technically, every wheel is biased to some degree).    Hunting down and selecting the worst performers increases the chances that you will be betting on what could be negatively biased numbers.  Consequently, your bet selection could theoretically be worse than choosing numbers at random!  This means that you could find yourself actually LOSING at a rate that could actually exceed the house edge! .   The theoretical value of the system's bet selection, as it's described is: (House edge or the negative edge on the negatively biased numbers.  Which ever is greater!)

The money management makes it even worse.  The book has you increasing your bets - while losing-  in a desperate attempt to recoup your losses.   All while betting on what could be negatively biased numbers!   The theoretical value of the money management part of the system is simply: (The sum of all bets made)
 

 
In the end, the value of the system is:  (House edge or the negative edge on the negatively biased numbers.  Which ever is greater)  x  (The sum of all bets made)  = (Very big loser that could exceed normal theoretical expectations)

Some systems really are much worse than others.



If you want to play the system, then be sure to let the casino know that you're coming ahead of time.  If you do, then they'll likely send a limo to pick you up!

-Real

 
« Last Edit: August 03, 2014, 10:28:11 PM by Real »


 

john518

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Re: A Really Bad System
« Reply #1 on: August 04, 2014, 02:30:28 AM »
Here is a video of his book introduction on youtube

newbielink:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-WHIaK6pW4 [nonactive]

Real's assessment seems reasonable, considering the nature and danger of the negative progression for long term use.

But on the other hand, people say there are no really good or bad roulette systems, since any one of them may work pretty nicely sometimes and fail miserably at other times. For example, many people still like martingale and get profits, even though it is a known very risky system. It really depends on the situation, timing, control and LUCK.

There might never be a holy grail to beat roulette. But playing wisely could potentially produce consistent winners. Some say, in playing roulette, there are: small win, big win, small loss and big loss; if we can eliminate the last one, we should be always ahead. Agree?

John

 

Real

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Re: A Really Bad System
« Reply #2 on: August 04, 2014, 03:48:44 AM »
John,

What makes this system so much worse, is the bet selection.  You're not just picking any 16 numbers, you're hunting for the worst 16 numbers!  On a live wheel, this increases the odds that you could be betting on negatively biased numbers.  Numbers that don't hit as often as they should because of problems with the wheel.

In short, some systems really can lose more than others in the long run.

-Real
« Last Edit: August 04, 2014, 03:50:25 AM by Real »
 

palladio

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Re: A Really Bad System
« Reply #3 on: August 04, 2014, 04:58:40 AM »
John,

What makes this system so much worse, is the bet selection.  You're not just picking any 16 numbers, you're hunting for the worst 16 numbers!  On a live wheel, this increases the odds that you could be betting on negatively biased numbers.  Numbers that don't hit as often as they should because of problems with the wheel.

In short, some systems really can lose more than others in the long run.

-Real

Real, you are in no position to comment on MB methodology or strategy. You show no understanding of the true process of bet selection used by MB, and then pathetically suggest that in a short cycle of 50-100 spins a biased wheel is going to deny the appearance of a group of 16 numbers, of which only a few need to be hit to enable a winning session. Targets are corner bets anyway. You cannot be serious to suggest that in a modern casino the wheel is so biased and out of alignment that half the numbers are skewed over a couple of hours play. Then you pose as some sort of expert. Take note John. Real is a troll looking to discredit.
 

palestis

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Re: A Really Bad System
« Reply #4 on: August 04, 2014, 08:41:59 AM »


Quote
Actually,

I am an expert on wheel defects,  and own three of my own wheels.  I also have experience working on and testing the wheels.  Sometimes a number will go for extended periods without hitting because of randomness, but sometimes there are very good reasons for the deficit.  Chasing the bad numbers (sleepers) is a really bad idea.

I can't believe that some people still believe in wheel bias in todays age. These people are stuck in the 40's.
There is no such thing as "wheel bias" today. A minute wear and tear is of no use to a player. And even for that JOHN HUXLEY (wheel manufacturer) has software to detect this ultra minor aberration. (that is if there is one)
Furthermore the casino has the option to switch wheels around and/or change parts.
I'd love to see how a player can win if 1, 10, 17 ,35 showed up 2-3 more times that their statistical share, in 2000 spins.
Play all 2000 spins and profit from the increased frequency? What a waste  of time?
What if they show up in the last 200 spins? You'll lose your bankroll before you can take advantage of them.
WHEEL BIAS IS DEAD.
The only wheel bias is by coincidence. TREND if you like. They come and go without warning and they don't obey nobody. Including probabilities.
If you are an expert in wheel defects, you can easily be hired by casinos as a consultant and make a lot more money than winning by taking advantage of them. And if all your research is concentrated on wheel defects, you are in no position to criticize people that spend years to develop math based systems. Your obsession with wheel defects  has prevented you from exploring other avenues. Excuses like lack of probability knowledge and "gambler's fallacy" means nothing to an experienced roulette researcher.

 

Real

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Re: A Really Bad System
« Reply #5 on: August 04, 2014, 04:03:09 PM »
Quote
if all your research is concentrated on wheel defects, you are in no position to criticize people that spend years to develop math based systems. Your obsession with wheel defects  has prevented you from exploring other avenues. Excuses like lack of probability knowledge and "gambler's fallacy" means nothing to an experienced roulette researcher. -Palestis


Palestis,


I'm not sure as to which conversation you're in, but I am not advocating bias wheel play.  Especially not for you.


Actually, my experience with the wheel and my strong background in math make me very well qualified to comment

Show me someone that has spent years to develop a math based system and I'll show you a fool!   Your argument above is absurd.  Dr. Edward Thorp,  every other real mathematician, and gaming expert would agree with me.

I see that others are commenting on Martin at http://www.vlsroulette.com/index.php?topic=21244.msg152943;topicseen#msg152943


-Real
« Last Edit: August 04, 2014, 04:19:14 PM by Real »
 

Jake007

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Re: A Really Bad System
« Reply #6 on: August 04, 2014, 04:19:11 PM »
Actually, I am an expert on wheel defects,  and own three of my own wheels.

Real, What constitutes a "Wheel Defect Expert"? Is it more than owning 3 wheels? You have made the "expert" claim several times now and as a newbie myself, I would be interested to know how one becomes a wheel defect expert. Self taught? A roulette wheel bias degree from an accredited university? Please enlighten us.

My personal belief on any system = If someone sells their system for $19.95 It cannot be a system that works, because the author is relying on books sales for income, not the roulette game itself. Personally, if I find the golden egg of roulette, I would never outright share it :) Generalizations, tips, etc... but not the actual system that I came up with.

First, No amount of money is worth a golden egg system that makes money. $1000? NO. $5000. NOPE. Second, I could sell the system but there are so many variable involved, and since the user is human with great chance to make errors or deviate from the system they purchased, they could claim my system doesnt work, even though they were at fault.
 

Real

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Re: A Really Bad System
« Reply #7 on: August 04, 2014, 10:37:48 PM »

Quote
Real, What constitutes a "Wheel Defect Expert"? Is it more than owning 3 wheels? You have made the "expert" claim several times now and as a newbie myself, I would be interested to know how one becomes a wheel defect expert. Self taught? A roulette wheel bias degree from an accredited university? Please enlighten us.-Jake


My experience with the wheels, research, and background training.  If you have a degree in engineering then it's easier to get training, but it's not required.  Back in the 80s, wheel manufacturer Tramble preferred to hire people that were master craftsmen/woodworkers because of their wood working skills and eye for detail.  (I did not work for him).  I was largely self taught, and then became an advantage player before being offered consulting opportunities based on my history.   I also have hands on experience creating, identifying, and fixing various wheel problems.   

My major was in business, but I still studied a great deal of math, and some engineering.  This is how I became familiar with the various tests required to test wheels, such as coefficient of resititution tests, etc...  Machine shop skills are an advantage as well.  For example experience using flex arm dial indicators, callipers, etc...  I also fully grasp and understand the various goodness of fit tests required to correctly test wheels,  and own the software as well.   When it comes to the wheels, I can tell you who makes what wheel, cause and effect of various small assembly/design flaws common to various brand series and assembly,  etc... 

Some casinos have the data download abilities for very good reasons.  Most people have no idea that even a brand new wheel will develop problems from time to time because of poor assembly, debris, residue from spilled drinks, or from being poorly leveled.  It's not just wear and tear.    For example:  VB players can exploit a drop zone bias on a wheel simply by pushing the table around enough to make it off level.  It's quite common for wheels to develop a drop bias after a busy weekend.    By the way, a drop distribution test is very easy to perform.

-Real
« Last Edit: August 04, 2014, 10:56:31 PM by Real »
 

Jake007

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Re: A Really Bad System
« Reply #8 on: August 04, 2014, 11:15:05 PM »

My experience with the wheels (honorably clipped for brevity)

Thanks for taking the time to share. Very interesting!
 

palestis

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Re: A Really Bad System
« Reply #9 on: August 05, 2014, 12:11:26 AM »
Quote
Show me someone that has spent years to develop a math based system and I'll show you a fool!   Your argument above is absurd.  Dr. Edward Thorp,  every other real mathematician, and gaming expert would agree with me.

Show you who? Someone who wrote a book? That doesn't count. Anybody can write a roulette system book with content ranging from GARBAGE to interesting.
Show you a player? There is no central registry of winners using math or any other method to beat roulette.  What every player does in a casino it's his own personal business and nobody knows what his bank account looks like but himself. Except maybe some very close friends. Concluding  that every player in this world is a loser in the long run is WRONG. There are players who are ahead of the game by far. I know some. And many members know some. (including themselves). As long as a player has the advantage to play whenever he wants to, skip spins, and vary bet amounts, he has the chance to win. Consistently.  If there were a rule that you have to play every spin, then there would be no long term winners Ever.
What is this thing with being a math expert? Phd and whatever. Are you suggesting that only math experts can win? Or are you suggesting that you have to be a math expert to see the light and realize that the roulette cannot be won? While all other math ignorant players keep pursuing a hopeless dream? A math expert has no advantage over an ordinary player. There are enough of them around, that could've driven the roulettes out of business by now. A player with extreme patience, strict self discipline,  and experience in having studied spin outcomes can beat any math expert when it comes to roulette.

« Last Edit: December 28, 2016, 09:52:47 PM by kav »
 

Real

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Re: A Really Bad System
« Reply #10 on: August 05, 2014, 12:22:07 AM »
Palestis,

Sorry, but strict self discipline and experience doesn't enable you to win. 

It's like saying that strict self discipline, and experience can enable you to live forever.

Unless you can get the edge over the casino, then all of the discipline/money management and experience is basically meaningless.

(House edge ) x (Great money management/self discipline) = Negative expectation in the long run.  Gaming discipline and money management simply don't affect the house edge in roulette.

 In order to win in the long run, you must somehow improve the bet selection so that you can get the edge over the casino. 

Sorry, just the facts.

-Real
« Last Edit: August 05, 2014, 12:26:50 AM by Real »
 

palestis

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Re: A Really Bad System
« Reply #11 on: August 05, 2014, 01:03:49 AM »

My experience with the wheels (honorably clipped for brevity)

Thanks for taking the time to share. Very interesting!

Jake007
If you look at the pic below or go to the JOHN HUXLEY site (which a major wheel manufacturer), you will see under  security, that they have software to detect any wheel bias or drop zone bias as soon as it appears. Even a tiny amount of bias (which is of no use to a player), will be detected and corrected immediately. Do you really think that a player will see it first and take advantage of it, long enough to make a hefty profit, before the casino people will? Impossible. No casino will let this situation exist without action. The wheel bias based of defects is a dead issue. There is bias developed all the time  in terms of TRENDS. Trends are not defective wheel based. They just happen and they happen very often. And the casino can't do anything about it. A sharp player can do a lot of things however.
If you see the new wheels made by HUXLEY,they have a bunch of light diodes all around it. Any wheel inclination done purposely or thru heavy weekend use will have red lights blinking like crazy . We can never underestimate our enemy. There are many ways to win where the casino has no control. Defective equipment is not one of them.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2014, 02:14:38 AM by palestis »
 

palestis

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Re: A Really Bad System
« Reply #12 on: August 05, 2014, 02:02:23 AM »


Palestis,

Sorry, but strict self discipline and experience doesn't enable you to win. 

It's like saying that strict self discipline, and experience can enable you to live forever.
That's a very poor example to discredit the virtues of self discipline in roulette.
For your info players don't lose because of the house edge. That 2.7% edge couldn't even pay the electricity and the dealers to operate the roulettes. The majority of players lose because of COMPULSION. And they lose a lot more than 2.7%. Self discipline is what makes you stop on time, and lose a little, rather than a lot, and at the same time self discipline is what pushes to close store and walk away when you win. Instead of letting greed take over.  You are talking about having the edge over the casino. HOW ABOUT THAT FOR A PLAYER'S EDGE?

The Roulette Player's Edge

Most players never realize what an advantage these offer. The casino cannot be flexible. It must continue to offer the same games, with the same rules, without the ability to react to changing conditions. The nimble player can weave and dodge and even choose not to play a particular game. Let's elaborate on the player's edge:

1. When you are losing, you can quit. You can always control your losses while the casino must continue to offer its games regardless of the outcomes. Most roulette players buy a fixed amount of chips and then don't quit until all of the chips are gone. There is no law that says you have to lose your entire buy-in before you lick your wounds and call it a game. Smart players learn to read a losing session long before all of their chips are gone and know how to walk away with at least some of their game bankroll in tact.
2. When you are winning, you can walk out with the casino's money. As a player you can always control when you stop playing. While the casino must continue offering its games twenty-four hours a day, you can jump in, grab a win and pull off. You have ultimate flexibility while the casino does not.

3. You can vary the size of your wagers. One approach a player can use is to increase the size of his wagers when he is winning and reduce them when losing. He may also choose to raise his wagers after losses so that only a win or two out of many wagers will put him ahead. A player can set up options where he doesn't have to win the majority of his bets. Using these techniques effectively goes a long ways towards minimizing the house edge and even turning it into a player edge!

4. You can pick where to play. You can play at tables offering the best situations for you. You can choose to play at tables that are almost empty by playing during slack periods. This can significantly increase your hourly win rate. 5. If you are looking for certain table conditions, you can scout for the right table before you play. You have numerous options while the house must offer the game to anyone who is old enough to play, conforms to fairly lax casinos standards and has some money to begin play.

6. You can modify your strategy based on table results and conditions. Every table develops different trends at different times.  We will take a hard look at patterns, streaks and other occurrences. You can adjust to the changing playing conditions as they occur. If the table is repeating a particular color, you can modify your strategy to take advantage of this trend. If the chop from one color to another, seemingly in an unpredictable manner, you can make still different moves. In short, you have the ability to bob and weave, duck and thrust, parry and counter punch. The table can't react to anything. Every roulette table is like an inanimate object that must endlessly grind out numbers, while you circle and pounce.

7. You can use discipline to develop a winning plan and then stick to it. The house has ultimate discipline. The very structure of the casino games and atmosphere exhibit a carefully planned approach designed to transfer funds from the players' pockets into the casino coffers in the shortest time possible. Of course, to a large extent this relies on most players' lack of discipline. Once you gain the discipline to set up a winning game plan and then follow it, you can effectively neutralize much of the casino's edge over the crowd of players.
 

Real

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Re: A Really Bad System
« Reply #13 on: August 05, 2014, 04:34:30 AM »
Quote
Jake007If you look at the pic below or go to the JOHN HUXLEY site (which a major wheel manufacturer), you will see under  security, that they have software to detect any wheel bias or drop zone bias as soon as it appears. Even a tiny amount of bias (which is of no use to a player), will be detected and corrected immediately. Do you really think that a player will see it first and take advantage of it, long enough to make a hefty profit, before the casino people will? Impossible. No casino will let this situation exist without action. The wheel bias based of defects is a dead issue. There is bias developed all the time  in terms of TRENDS. Trends are not defective wheel based. They just happen and they happen very often. And the casino can't do anything about it. A sharp player can do a lot of things however. If you see the new wheels made by HUXLEY,they have a bunch of light diodes all around it. Any wheel inclination done purposely or thru heavy weekend use will have red lights blinking like crazy . We can never underestimate our enemy. There are many ways to win where the casino has no control. Defective equipment is not one of them.-Palestic

For starters, only a few wheels have drop zone detectors.  They first came out on the Saturn Bowl.  They're at best, a gimmick.  They don't work that great.  The fail to track the true plural track of the ball. Secondly, drop zones come can come and go, and can develop quickly.  It depends on how much the players are leaning on the table, etc.

  If you think that a dominant ball drop zone will stop a game, then think again.  Most casinos simply don't care.  They'll simply wait until the next morning and check the wheel for level.  What matters most to them is whether the table is making money or losing.  However, don't take my word for it.  Simply perform a drop distribution test on a busy table or two some weekend.   Write down the position of each deflector on the bowl.  Label them from 1 to 8.  Each time the ball smacks one of the deflectors on the apron, make a mark below the corresponding deflector.  Track for about 30 or so spins.

  By the way, I'm quite familiar with the Saturn Bowl and various Huxley wheels, and I own two of them.  So you might say that I"m more than qualified to comment on the subject.

Most casinos are not very efficient.  They're efficiency is closer to that of a city water department or parks and recreations department.  For example, if the casino thought that a drop zone was developing, they'd send a memo out to the shift manager, who would then send a memo out to Ed the maintenance man, who would eventually get around to fixing the problem, provided that he had a chance to reload the paper in slot machine number 2345432, and to replace a burned out bulb on one of the displays first.

« Last Edit: August 05, 2014, 04:58:28 AM by Real »
 

Jake007

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Re: A Really Bad System
« Reply #14 on: August 05, 2014, 04:37:34 AM »
I do believe wheel bias is a moot point in this day and age, but it is still interesting to know all I can about every aspect of roulette. Right now I am sponge.

Some days I do very well with online roulette and I let my winnings ride until I feel my luck is running out. I always like to walk away ahead. If I start off with some bad luck I just quit for the day. Each day is different, but Ive learned not to press my luck.