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Author Topic: Best progression for 4 numbers bet  (Read 2356 times)

kav

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Best progression for 4 numbers bet
« on: December 29, 2016, 04:11:14 PM »
I'm looking for ideas about wagering plans for betting 4 numbers.
I have my own ideas which I will share later.

See also here:
Translating various bets to even chances


 

Sputnik

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Re: Best progression for 4 numbers bet
« Reply #1 on: December 29, 2016, 05:50:27 PM »

 Kav i mention i save some work from others with no solution as i had not time to get involved.
 But as you into 4 number bet or Quad i wanted to show you a Matrix by Kimo Li.
 Combine that with EC probability cycles and staking plan and a Matrix solution to solve.
 Some food for toughts.

 When you have time you will find thid PDF a good read - see attach file ...
 
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kav

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Re: Best progression for 4 numbers bet
« Reply #2 on: December 29, 2016, 07:00:49 PM »
Just want to quote Reyth's post here about turbo's 4-number bet progression:

Quote
I really like the Turbo method on a quad -- spin 8 times and raise 1, upon 2 hits in 8 spins, lower the chips by 1/2 rounding up.  This method is very tough to beat but the successive sequences from heck are still out there...
 
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kav

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Re: Best progression for 4 numbers bet
« Reply #3 on: December 29, 2016, 10:15:31 PM »
Some data:
4-numbers bet
Spins	Probability % to...
	...hit at least once	...hit exactly once	...hit more than once	...sleep all spins

1	10.810810810810807	10.810810810810807	0		89.1891891891892
2	20.452885317750173	19.284149013878746	1.1687363038714267	79.54711468224983
3	29.052573391506925	25.799064221270214	3.253509170236711	70.94742660849307
4	36.722565457289946	30.679968263132142	6.042597194157803	63.277434542710054
5	43.56336919163698	34.20401867173516	9.359350519901817	56.43663080836302
6	49.66462657632486	36.607544308127366	13.057082268197497	50.33537342367514
7	55.10628856807354	38.09163394224065	17.01465462583289	44.89371143192646
8	59.95966277693044	38.82699367085532	21.13266910607512	40.04033722306956
9	64.28834788212716	38.958165946770386	25.33018193535677	35.711652117872845
10	68.1490670300053	38.60719147878146	29.54187555122384	31.850932969994698
11	71.5924111348696	37.876785153507214	33.71562598136238	28.407588865130407
12	74.6635018229918	36.853088257466474	37.81041356552533	25.336498177008203
13	77.40258270699269	35.60805149201153	41.794531214981156	22.597417293007318
14	79.84554673866914	34.20149644347054	45.6440502951986	20.154453261330854
15	82.02440655070491	32.68289718053652	49.34150937016839	17.975593449295086
16	83.9677139506287	31.092918398780693	52.87479555184801	16.032286049371294
17	85.70093406407425	29.46474192857427	56.23619213549998	14.299065935925748
18	87.24677903012028	27.825209388828483	59.421569641291796	12.753220969879722
19	88.62550562145863	26.19580523542862	62.42970038603001	11.374494378541373
20	89.85518068940904	24.593501359008375	65.26167933040067	10.144819310590956
21	90.95191791217563	23.031481678098388	67.92043623407724	9.048082087824366
22	91.93008894869719	21.51976280347417	70.41032614522302	8.069911051302814
23	92.80251176505425	20.065724776212402	72.73678698884184	7.1974882349457525
24	93.5806186012646	18.67456406904844	74.90605453221616	6.419381398735402
25	94.27460577950626	17.349679456041628	76.92492632346463	5.725394220493736
26	94.89356731685693	16.09299997111753	78.80056734573941	5.106432683143063
27	95.44561409341294	14.905262967012185	80.54035112640076	4.554385906587055
28	95.9379801373683	13.786249230750006	82.1517309066183	4.062019862631699
29	96.37711741981497	12.734981190953434	83.64213622886153	3.6228825801850286
30	96.7687804014566	11.749889449248741	85.01889095220785	3.231219598543404
31	97.11810143913696	10.828952168091408	86.28914927104556	2.8818985608630365
32	97.42965804031135	9.969811237580235	87.45984680273112	2.5703419596886543
33	97.70753284676417	9.169868612943308	88.53766423382086	2.2924671532358265
34	97.95536713360048	8.426365752434391	89.52900138116608	2.0446328663995215
35	98.17640852456259	7.736448683673866	90.43995984088872	1.8235914754374107
36	98.3735535489342	7.097220877378032	91.27633267155616	1.626446451065799
« Last Edit: December 29, 2016, 10:32:23 PM by kav »
 
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kav

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Re: Best progression for 4 numbers bet
« Reply #4 on: January 03, 2017, 07:54:44 PM »
Like Bayes has pointed out and like the previous table shows, there is a 50% probability of one or more appearances in the first 6 spins and 50% probability of no hit on the first 6 spins.

The average expectation though is 1 hit every 9 spins, or to be more exact, taking zero into account) 1 hit every 9,25 spins.

I suggest you read this article where I explain the difference between probability and expectation for the 5 numbers bet (neighbours bet) which is very similar.

(this posts is a draft - to be continued)
 
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kav

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Re: Best progression for 4 numbers bet
« Reply #5 on: January 06, 2017, 12:38:55 PM »
Test of 20,000 spins
DozensLongest GapEvensLongest Gap
Dozen 1 (1-12)22Red15
Dozen 2 (13-24)20Black13
Dozen 3 (25-36)20Even15
Row 1 (1,4,7,10..)22Odd13
Row 2 (2,5,8,11..)22High13
Row 3 (3,6,9,12..)23Low14

Bet: Quad, Corner, 4-numbers, specifically these numbers:14,15,17,18
Number frequency:
14: 500 hits
15: 527 hits
17: 588 hits
18: 546 hits
Gap Analysis
Gap or Skip is the spins between two appearances of the bet.
Longest Gap: 85 spins
Count: 2162 gaps
Sum: 20000
Mean: 9.2506938020352
Median: 7
 
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Sputnik

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Re: Best progression for 4 numbers bet
« Reply #6 on: January 06, 2017, 03:28:43 PM »

 Is that a software making does results - where can i get this - i can buy it for Money.

 Cheers
 

kav

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Re: Best progression for 4 numbers bet
« Reply #7 on: January 06, 2017, 05:22:43 PM »
Hi Sputnik,

Here is the :
gaps calculator

Then I enter the raw gap data into
Mean, Median, Mode Calculator
and come up with more stats.
« Last Edit: January 06, 2017, 11:22:39 PM by kav »
 
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Scarface

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Re: Best progression for 4 numbers bet
« Reply #8 on: January 06, 2017, 09:56:11 PM »
Just want to quote Reyth's post here about turbo's 4-number bet progression:

Quote
I really like the Turbo method on a quad -- spin 8 times and raise 1, upon 2 hits in 8 spins, lower the chips by 1/2 rounding up.  This method is very tough to beat but the successive sequences from heck are still out there...

This is a good idea, but could get quite expensive.  If the worse case is a gap of 85, that would mean you would have to double at least 10 times! 

If it reaches 8 spins with no hit, I would keep the bet the same until a hit is made.  Once it hits, raise bet enough units to profit if you hit twice in the next 12 spins.  If it makes it another 12 spins with no hit, raise bet again so that you could profit in the next 12, etc
 

kav

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Re: Best progression for 4 numbers bet
« Reply #9 on: January 06, 2017, 10:24:36 PM »
Scarface,
I agree with you.
One thing we could count on is that it is rare for long sequences to follow each other. It can happen, but it is an exception. If we find a money management that can recoup the losses from the few consecutive long gaps with the wins of the many consecutive short (6 and less) gaps we will have a winner.

In all my tests the absolute longest gap is 95 spins. In 20K spins the longest gap is on average around 65 spins.
« Last Edit: January 06, 2017, 11:23:08 PM by kav »
 
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Scarface

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Re: Best progression for 4 numbers bet
« Reply #10 on: January 06, 2017, 11:51:03 PM »
With those gaps as worse case scenario, I think a workable system is very possible.  Working on a progestin for this now.  Will post back soon
 

kav

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Re: Best progression for 4 numbers bet
« Reply #11 on: January 07, 2017, 12:35:45 AM »
Our enemy is not only the 65spins type of gap but for example 2 or 3 25-spin gaps after each other, which is quite uncommon, but can be ruin if we have the wrong progression.
The good thing is that half (50%) of the gaps are 6 or less spins.
 

Sputnik

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Re: Best progression for 4 numbers bet
« Reply #12 on: January 07, 2017, 04:46:12 AM »
If you pick one particular quad or any quad you can measuring STDS as you use the quad with cycle that make it become a EC bet odds - whish make it very simple to caculate.

Minus sign - is a hit within six attempts and a plus sign + is a missing cycle and a equal sign = is a hit at the 6th attempt.

- + = + - - + - - - + - + - + - + + + = + + + + + + + + = + =

Above you can see a quad for 300 spins and a 2.5 STDS at the end.
12 contra 2 events.
With four level progression winning two in a row you would lose against 4.04 STDS.
For example:
(Level 1 - $10-$16-$22-$28-$34-$40 = $150
(Level 2 - $15-$24-$33-$42-$51-$60 = $225
(Level 3 - $30-$48-$66-$84-$102-$120 = $450
(Level 4 - $60-$96-$132-$168-$204-$240 = $900
See this topic http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=1263.0

24 contra 3
+ + + + + + - + + + + + + - + + + + + + - + + + + + +

NOTE i only bet for one quad or cycle when a quad has hit once and not the other way around.
See Bayes topic http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=1294.0

« Last Edit: January 07, 2017, 04:51:23 AM by Sputnik »
 
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kav

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Re: Best progression for 4 numbers bet
« Reply #13 on: January 08, 2017, 12:55:13 PM »
Sputnik,
I guess each + represent a sequence where the hit appeared after the 6th spin, right?
The big question is what do we do after the 6th spin? Do we keep betting? Or we only bet the first 6 spins after a hit?
If we keep betting after the 6th spin then the actual length of a + sequence if of great importance.

The probabilistic problem that makes the puzzle hard to solve is that after the 6th spin, can theoretically begin a new cycle, so betting after the 6th spin can be considered a new sequence and equal to betting in the first 6 spins. (theoretically there is no difference since roulette has no memory)
 
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Jesper

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Re: Best progression for 4 numbers bet
« Reply #14 on: January 08, 2017, 01:28:51 PM »
Corners and EU basket I may use  the progression
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 4 4 4 4 6 6 9 9 12 .

We will get runs when all steps lose, and then it is up when it happens.
 
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