Author Topic: Translating various bets to even chances  (Read 284 times)

kav

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Translating various bets to even chances
« on: December 28, 2016, 12:25:21 PM »
http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=1259.msg18102#msg18102

This is a very interesting subject of "translating" few number bets, like 6 or 5 or 4 numbers bets into Simple Chances (black, low etc.) in terms of probabilities.

 But it doesn't work exactly as expected. For example a 4 numbers bet (corner) should hit once every 6 spins to have the same probability (49%) as a hit on black for example. So far so good.

But when one tries to employ a Marty type of progression to the corner bet things get frustrating.  Because for the even chances doubling up produces a profit, but if we double up our corner bet every 6 spins, in the 18th spin with a win on a 4units corner bet we only recover 32 of the 38 units we have lost so far.

My point is that a six times corner bet should be treated differently than an even chances bet - they are not equal or analogous in every aspect.

Any comments or feedback welcome obviously.
« Last Edit: December 28, 2016, 01:15:43 PM by kav »


 
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Jesper

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Re: Translating various bets to even chances
« Reply #1 on: December 28, 2016, 12:58:33 PM »
http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=1259.msg18102#msg18102

This is a very interesting subject of "translating" few number bets, like 6 or 5 or 4 numbers bets into Simple Chances (black, low etc.) in terms of probabilities.

 But it doesn't work exactly as expected. For example. 4 numbers bet (corner) should hit once every 6 spins to have the same probability (49%) as a hit on black for example. So far so good.

But when one tries to employ a Marty yhpe of progression to the corner bet things get frustrating.  Because for the even chances doubling up produces a profit, but if we double up our corner bet every 6 spins, in the 18th spin with a win on a 4units corner bet we only recover 32 of the 38 units we have lost so far.

My point is that a six times corner bet should be treated differently than an even chances bet - they are not equal or analogous in every aspect.

Any comments or feedback welcome obviously.

No they are not identical. I use to play the corner bet seven times before a progression. And it often needs two or sometimes more hits.  An EC has the same winning every time on a martingale. Other chances has different depending when we hit. A balanced progression when we use inside numbers do not allways have to profit on the last step of a level, we hit earlier as well and gain more. So doubling after seven trials of a corner i think is well in balance, then if it sometimes needs more hits. I use to reduce on such a hit. The stakes are in most cases lesser than on an EC.
 
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Bayes

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Re: Translating various bets to even chances
« Reply #2 on: December 28, 2016, 03:13:47 PM »
Kav, you're right the bets are not entirely equivalent. But I find that because the progression is calculated for at least 1 hit in the 6 spins, it often happens that you get a couple of hits within the cycle, which makes up for not recovering the total prior losses on a single hit. As you know, there are always trade-offs when considering any MM scheme, and I prefer to err on the side of caution. I prefer something more like a D'Alembert. The marty is too aggressive for my taste even when stretched out in this way.

 
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kav

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Re: Translating various bets to even chances
« Reply #3 on: December 28, 2016, 03:34:47 PM »
Kav, you're right the bets are not entirely equivalent. But I find that because the progression is calculated for at least 1 hit in the 6 spins, it often happens that you get a couple of hits within the cycle, which makes up for not recovering the total prior losses on a single hit. As you know, there are always trade-offs when considering any MM scheme, and I prefer to err on the side of caution. I prefer something more like a D'Alembert. The marty is too aggressive for my taste even when stretched out in this way.
Good points Bayes,
Now my question is which one is better for a corner bet:
Traditional D'Alembert (Up as you lose, down as you win) or Reverse D'Alembert (Up as you win, down as you lose)?
Please note that one of the difference between Even chances and corner bets is that the corner bet fluctuates more strongly. You can see it hit 3 or even 4 times in a 9 spin cycle and also go missing for over 36 spins.
« Last Edit: December 28, 2016, 03:42:02 PM by kav »
 

Reyth

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Re: Translating various bets to even chances
« Reply #4 on: December 28, 2016, 03:40:22 PM »
I really like the Turbo method on a quad -- spin 8 times and raise 1, upon 2 hits in 8 spins, lower the chips by 1/2 rounding up.  This method is very tough to beat but the successive sequences from heck are still out there...
 
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