Author Topic: Best bet selection  (Read 1223 times)

mogul397

  • New
  • **
  • Posts: 123
  • Thanked: 32 times
Best bet selection
« on: December 26, 2016, 11:34:09 PM »
So this is ground zero, but as I was thinking about it for bet selection, lately
I have been testing simply betting the "last event". Meaning if you had red-red,
there was no change. So bet red again. Or if it was red-black, there was a change.
So bet red, for a change.

I have run through, flat betting, on a lot of data. It generally is a very flat
pendulum swing with little volatility. It grabs all short and long  streaks of
both series and chops. The doubles are the thing that are bad, and most of
the time you are in a very small variant.

I said "ground zero", not to complicate things. I think that this is simply where
you must throw in the towel and stop being fancy. But I wonder if it was played
around with (like doing the opposite) if there are any tweaks. I don't think so.

So from this you can do one of two (or maybe more) things.

1) A D'alenbert or fib wouldn't be bad.
2)  Just flat betting. You will end a series of 30 bets +/- 1 somewhere generally.
You might want to find a groove where you watch for the neg swing with the
expectation of positive. And bet $100 per spin.  Take away $200-$300 on the swing,
and do it consistently. From what I've seen you're pretty safe with this pendulum,
especially after a neg swing.  $500 should be enough.

After 40 years of chasing this, I think a simple approach with some common
sense will work.

Thoughts?
« Last Edit: December 27, 2016, 05:41:47 PM by kav »


 
The following users thanked this post: kav

mogul397

  • New
  • **
  • Posts: 123
  • Thanked: 32 times
Re: Best bet selection
« Reply #1 on: December 28, 2016, 08:33:08 PM »
So nobody here thinks?

Well I stopped by today. Generally I stop by for 1/2 hour or so, make $20
and leave.

When I walked up to the airball machine there were 11 reds in a row. I couldn't
believe it. But it was par for what to expect with this.

I'd say more, but no sense talking to the wind.  Won $35 and left.  I'm getting in
that grove where I can see several different things happening at once. And
capitalizing on them. It's working.
 
The following users thanked this post: Reyth

kav

  • www.Roulette30.com
  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1531
  • Thanked: 581 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Best bet selection
« Reply #2 on: December 28, 2016, 08:42:31 PM »
So this is ground zero, but as I was thinking about it for bet selection, lately
I have been testing simply betting the "last event". Meaning if you had red-red,
there was no change. So bet red again. Or if it was red-black, there was a change.
So bet red, for a change.

Thoughts?
Very simple and smart system.
I like that you "Follow the Last", but instead the Last Color, you follow the Last Event, chop or streak. That's fresh!

My opinion is that flat bet is a waste of time.

Now if you have tested a lot of spins, this is what I suggest.
If there are long periods of losses, then use an up as you win progression. If there are no long periods of losses then use an up as you lose progression.

Theoretically, your bet selection should produce exactly the same results as any Even Chance, any way you played it. But if your testing has produced less volatility than the average Red/Black bet then something like the Labouchere could be a good idea.
 
The following users thanked this post: Reyth

Sheridan44

  • Mature Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 226
  • Thanked: 185 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Best bet selection
« Reply #3 on: December 28, 2016, 11:02:30 PM »
Another variation is to bet what won 2 events ago. If it repeats you win, if it chops you win. The weakness is if you get caught up in a series of double chops (double alternating decisions). Double chops do occur somewhat less often than single chops or repeats.

RRRR = Win
RBRB = Win
RRBB = Loss
 

palestis

  • Veteran Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 550
  • Thanked: 279 times
Re: Best bet selection
« Reply #4 on: December 29, 2016, 01:45:59 AM »
Another variation is to bet what won 2 events ago. If it repeats you win, if it chops you win. The weakness is if you get caught up in a series of double chops (double alternating decisions). Double chops do occur somewhat less often than single chops or repeats.

RRRR = Win
RBRB = Win
RRBB = Loss
THIS IS A SYSTEM POSTED BY SOMEONE A FEW YEARS AGO IN SOME SITE. YOU MAY FIND IT INTERESTING
This is a strategy which I have come up with, I have
   tested it with multiple random number generators
   and have been using it in live play. So far it has
   it been producing very good results in live play.
   Presently there are a few members of this forum
   using it and a few personal friends. If you would
   like to get a little more insight into the strategy
   I suggest you read the Red/Black thread here on
   the forum. I have received a few IM’s from members
   asking for more details and can the strategy be
   used with a small bankroll, so I thought I’d try to
   lay out the strategy in a separate thread.

  First let me say this is not the so called “Holy Grail.”
  So if your looking for an easy way to win this
   definitely isn’t it. This is a grind and there’s no
   guarantees you’ll win.

  The strategy is based on streaks of red and black.
   All your bets will be determined by the color of the
   prior spin. The theory behind the strategy is that
   the law of appearance states all series of even money
   chances will account for 3/4 of all trials and single
   even money chance only account for 1/4 of those
   trails. A series is 2 or more of the same (RR, BB, RRR,
   BBB, RRRR, BBBB, .....) If you were to run a RNG
   test of 100,000 spins, 75,000 of those spins would
   approximately account for series of 2 or more and the
   remaining 25,000 spins would account for single events.
   I know it may sound crazy, but it is true! The Laws
   of Distribution and Appearance can easily be verified.
   Yes there will always be deviations but if you ran
   many test you’ll see the ratio always comes near that
   3/4 series to 1/4 single events. The theory of this strategy
   is to try to capitalize on those series of red and black.

  The strategy has 4 levels of play, with each level giving
     you 6 betting steps. The odds of losing 6 of these betting
     steps is approximately 1 in 64. Thus for the strategy to
     totally collapse the odds are approximately (1 in 64) (1 in 64)
     (1 in 64) (1 in 64). In my RNG testing I did suffer a few
     total losts of all 4 levels. The thing is I was way
     ahead at the time and was able to handle the losts, and
     each time I was able to recover my losts and reach new
     highs before the next lost. In my limited live play of the
     strategy I haven’t yet suffered a lost of all 4 levels. I’m
     up a little over $6,000 in live play and a lost is definitely
     due. The strategy requires a sizable bankroll of 173 units,
     if you use $10 units that amounts to $1,730 investment.
     
     I have scaled the bankroll down for one of the members
     here on the forum and as of today he’s doing well and
     up about $1,000 but only plays for a 5% profit goal per
     session. I also have a personal friend who plays this
     strategy with $50 units and HAS had one lost so far,
     but even after that lost he is still showing a profit of
     over $15,000.

    Remember this strategy is based on a “hit and run” game.
     I personally only play for 4 to 5 units profit per table. I
     average any where between 4 to 40 spins per session.
     Must of the time I reach my goal of 4 to 5 units per table in
     under 20 spins and then move to another table.

    Here are the bets for the strategy:
         (Level 1 - $10-$16-$22-$28-$34-$40 = $150 (Up $6 on a lost, down $4 on win.)
         (Level 2 - $15-$24-$33-$42-$51-$60 = $225 (Up $9 on a lost, down $6 on win.)
         (Level 3 - $30-$48-$66-$84-$102-$120 = $450 ( Up $18 on a lost, down $12 on win.)
         (Level 4 - $60-$96-$132-$168-$204-$240 = $900 ( Up $36 on a lost, down $24 on win.) 
       Any two consecutive wins decrease to whatever level value of the that level, (if Level 3
       and win two bets in a row instead of going down $18 you decrease by $30),
       but never lower than the starting level amount.
 
The following users thanked this post: Reyth, Sheridan44

tickseeker

  • New
  • **
  • Posts: 37
  • Thanked: 39 times
  • Gender: Male
  • It takes courage to be a Pig
Re: Best bet selection
« Reply #5 on: December 29, 2016, 10:11:06 AM »
    Here are the bets for the strategy:
         (Level 1 - $10-$16-$22-$28-$34-$40 = $150 (Up $6 on a lost, down $4 on win.)
         (Level 2 - $15-$24-$33-$42-$51-$60 = $225 (Up $9 on a lost, down $6 on win.)
         (Level 3 - $30-$48-$66-$84-$102-$120 = $450 ( Up $18 on a lost, down $12 on win.)
         (Level 4 - $60-$96-$132-$168-$204-$240 = $900 ( Up $36 on a lost, down $24 on win.) 
       Any two consecutive wins decrease to whatever level value of the that level, (if Level 3
       and win two bets in a row instead of going down $18 you decrease by $30),
       but never lower than the starting level amount.

Im stupid. I just don't understand the logic  >:(

So you start betting by $10 and if you miss then you increase your size to $16 and bet again and if still no hit you increase your bet size to $22 (Level 1 step is $6) and so on.

If one Level is done without a hit you go to the next level ?
If you are at the Level 2 and will get the hit at $33 then what is the next bet size ?
When do you go to lower Levels from Higher levels ?
« Last Edit: December 29, 2016, 10:15:34 AM by tickseeker »
 

Sputnik

  • Veteran Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 420
  • Thanked: 340 times
Re: Best bet selection
« Reply #6 on: December 29, 2016, 10:25:37 AM »

 This is how i understand it - you aim to win twice within six attempts for each level.

 1) If you win twice within two attempts you stay at that level and continue.
 2) If you win one or miss winning twice at one level you move up to next level.

 Cheers
 

Bayes

  • Veteran Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 577
  • Thanked: 434 times
  • roulettician.com
Re: Best bet selection
« Reply #7 on: December 29, 2016, 11:04:41 AM »
My preferred bet selection for the even chances involves betting against one of a "family" of patterns, but in a dynamic kind of way. I'll give an example in a moment but the family of patterns all contain a single, a series of 2, and series of 3. E.g.

(B) R BB RRR (B)
(R) BB R BBB (R)
(B) RRR B RR (B)

Note that the first and last outcomes (in brackets) are just "markers" or boundaries which tell me where in the pattern I am (this will become clearer in the example).

So each pattern (including markers) is 8 outcomes long. In any 8 spin sequence there are 28 = 256 possible permutations but only 12 of them form a pattern in which there is a 1,2,3. They are:

Starting with RED

1,2,3 = (B) R BB RRR (B)
1,3,2 = (B) R BBB RR (B)
2,1,3 = (B) RR B RRR (B)
2,3,1 = (B) RR BBB R (B)
3,1,2 = (B) RRR B RR (B)
3,2,1 = (B) RRR BB R (B)

Starting with BLACK (these are just mirror images of the above)

1,2,3 = (R) B RR BBB (R)
1,3,2 = (R) B RRR BB (R)
2,1,3 = (R) BB R BBB (R)
2,3,1 = (R) BB RRR B (R)
3,1,2 = (R) BBB R BB (R)
3,2,1 = (R) BBB RR B (R)

It doesn't matter which pattern you choose; just pick one and switch to another randomly (I generally switch when the current pattern isn't "performing" well, but you could just do it mechanically every fixed number of spins).

Now, say you have chosen the first pattern (starting with R). You are betting against R BB RRR. So your first bet would be on B.

If this wins, continue to bet on B until a loss.

If it loses, so you have R, the next bet will be on R (against BB forming).

If the bet on R loses the pattern is R B so you bet on R to prevent R BB.

And so on. This is straightforward enough when you have a series of losses, but where the method differs from the usual "anti pattern" system is what you do after a win. You don't recommence betting against the pattern from the first element but continue betting on the same side until a loss. This ensures that you're always on any trend which may occur.

E.g. Suppose I get 6 straight losses because R BB RRR has occurred. The pattern is not completed because it hasn't been "bounded" by a B. My next bet is therefore on R. If this wins I continue to bet R until a loss, then I bet on the B to continue. When R occurs I'm inside the first marker and so bet against the pattern as described earlier. It's simple enough but can be a bit confusing if you're only familiar with the "static" way of using this bet selection.

Example:

first bet on B

1.  R L (next bet on R)
2.  B L (next bet on R)
3.  R W (next bet on R)
4.  B L (next bet on R)
5.  B L (next bet on B)
6.  R L (next bet on B)
7.  B W (next bet on B)
8.  R L (next bet on R)
9.  R W (next bet on R)
10. R W (next bet on R)
11. R W (next bet on R)
12. B L (next bet on B)
13. B W (next bet on B)
14. B W (next bet on B)
15. R L (next bet on R)
16. B L (next bet on R)
17. R W (next bet on R)
18. R W (next bet on R)

I like this bet selection because it's simple, mechanical, and gives good results. I've experimented with other patterns involving longer streaks but the 1,2,3 seems to offer the best returns because you get some nice winning runs and losses are usually quite "choppy" (good for D'Alembert).

Of course there are times when the pattern you're betting against can repeat itself partially, in which case the losses can be running at 2-1 or more, but these sequences don't last long and are almost followed by a counter balance or nice win streak.
« Last Edit: December 29, 2016, 11:12:21 AM by Bayes »
 
The following users thanked this post: kav, december, Reyth, juice, Sheridan44

tickseeker

  • New
  • **
  • Posts: 37
  • Thanked: 39 times
  • Gender: Male
  • It takes courage to be a Pig
Re: Best bet selection
« Reply #8 on: December 29, 2016, 11:35:27 AM »
My preferred bet selection for the even chances involves betting against one of a "family" of patterns, but in a dynamic kind of way...

I'll dig this. Thank you very much for your time to explain it !

I'll do a test run (the million numbers file found here) and will publish a chart of the outcome (one version of it) in this thread. Of course if I am eble to impelement it  :P
« Last Edit: December 29, 2016, 11:42:08 AM by tickseeker »
 

kav

  • www.Roulette30.com
  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1531
  • Thanked: 581 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Best bet selection
« Reply #9 on: December 29, 2016, 12:11:43 PM »
Bayes, what an amazing post!
It is packed with useful ideas and it is very clearly explained - you don't asuume any knowledge for granted and offer an example.

PS: D'Alembert progression
« Last Edit: December 29, 2016, 12:13:52 PM by kav »
 

Sputnik

  • Veteran Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 420
  • Thanked: 340 times
Re: Best bet selection
« Reply #10 on: December 29, 2016, 12:12:51 PM »
 If you use the method winning two in a row with singles contra series or series contra singles.
 Then you bet against 3.81 STDS with 4 levels.

 Also works with sportbetting. I save the original into PDF from other forum, see attach file.
 
 
The following users thanked this post: kav, december, Reyth, juice, Sheridan44

kav

  • www.Roulette30.com
  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1531
  • Thanked: 581 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Best bet selection
« Reply #11 on: December 29, 2016, 12:18:55 PM »
If you use the method winning two in a row with singles contra series or series contra singles.
 Then you bet against 3.81 STDS with 4 levels.

 Also works with sportbetting. I save the original into PDF from other forum, see attach file.
 
This is exactly the same strategy palestis is referring to - great minds think alike :-)
Btw, Sputnik you must have a huge archive of roulette pdfs!
 

Sputnik

  • Veteran Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 420
  • Thanked: 340 times
Re: Best bet selection
« Reply #12 on: December 29, 2016, 03:59:59 PM »

Quote
Btw, Sputnik you must have a huge archive of roulette pdfs!

Hello Kav! Yes i have a hudge libary and i save things that is a winning method or need further develompment. Do this to prepear my self to get a arsenal with working methods that i can use when i start travelling around Europa.

My current favorite that i tweak to work with my comfort zone at the moment is the following:
And i regard this methods as long term winners.

1) Parchute Method (change my current solution to another solution that i find more accurate and better).
2) Using dozen distribution with EC bets and winning two in a row.
3) Chinga Li Method with my own tweak.

Have others but they rest until i have time to dive deep into them and come up with solutions.
That is one part i like with forum, one member might post one line and have to clue to final solution.
But i have the puzzel and road maps and missing one part and find it in one writen line or it start a chain reaction of toughts in a new line of thinking and i solve the issue one half year later or next week. Some times Before sleep or during sleep or during dinner or on my way to work.

Cheers
 
The following users thanked this post: kav

tickseeker

  • New
  • **
  • Posts: 37
  • Thanked: 39 times
  • Gender: Male
  • It takes courage to be a Pig
Re: Best bet selection
« Reply #13 on: December 29, 2016, 04:22:10 PM »
...
Now, say you have chosen the first pattern (starting with R). You are betting against R BB RRR. So your first bet would be on B.

If this wins, continue to bet on B until a loss.

If it loses, so you have R, the next bet will be on R (against BB forming).

If the bet on R loses the pattern is R B so you bet on R to prevent R BB.

And so on. This is straightforward enough when you have a series of losses, but where the method differs from the usual "anti pattern" system is what you do after a win. You don't recommence betting against the pattern from the first element but continue betting on the same side until a loss. This ensures that you're always on any trend which may occur.

Summary for programmers:

  • select randomly 1 sequence (out of 12) of 6 outcomes as described
  • if sequence starts with R add B to end of the sequence and vice versa
  • start betting against the sequence
  • allways when hit, repeat until loss and then start all over again
  • if loss go to the next in sequence until 7 loss and then start all over again
This is how I see this and going to do it.
 
The following users thanked this post: kav

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3013
  • Thanked: 798 times
Re: Best bet selection
« Reply #14 on: December 29, 2016, 04:32:30 PM »

If one Level is done without a hit you go to the next level ?

Yes but more specifically, its "without a hit on the last bet of the level"

Quote
If you are at the Level 2 and will get the hit at $33 then what is the next bet size ?

42

Quote
When do you go to lower Levels from Higher levels ?

I personally moved from level 2 back to level 1 when my original profit (9 units) was restored.  You can also stagger your recovery, noting your debt at the start of each level and return to the upper level when you reach "its debt level".
« Last Edit: December 29, 2016, 04:34:33 PM by Reyth »
 
The following users thanked this post: tickseeker