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What is the way to beat roulette

A great bet selection (flat betting)
A great progression (waggerng plan)
One needs both a great progression and a great bet selection
Main thing is the bet selection, but a good progression can help
Main thing is the progression, but a good bet selection can help

Author Topic: Bet selection (flat bet) or progression or both?  (Read 1089 times)

kav

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Bet selection (flat bet) or progression or both?
« on: December 26, 2016, 02:13:10 PM »
Here is an excerpt from a little message exchange I just had with a member of this forum:

 Forum member:
Quote
Kav this post was so many years ago and since then I have tested a lot lot systems that I created so I really can t remember what I was doing back then :)

In my opinion progressions doesn t work.
IF something would break this game would be flat betting (so better selections than the expected)

Me:
Quote
If a bet selection works with flat betting it can work even better with some kind of progression. I am sure of this.

There are various kinds of progressions (or wagering plans as Bayes calls them): Up as you win, Up as you lose, Stepped, differential and much more. Like I have said many times before, a progression is a tool in the arsenal of the roulette player. Even if some people believe that the way to winnings is the bet selection, there is no reason not to use an additional tool called wagering plan to improve your results. There is no bet selection that can win flat betting that can not be improved with a progression.

And since i already mentioned Bayes, let me remind his opinion on the matter, that there can not be a favoral bet selection. Only a well thought out wagering plan can offer an advantage.

So what is your opinion on the issue.
What is the way to beat roulette? Bet selection (flat bet) or progression or both?Please vote and explain your opinion here.

Related: The logic behind negative progressions
« Last Edit: January 24, 2017, 07:41:57 PM by kav »


 
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kav

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Re: Bet selection (flat bet) or progression or both?
« Reply #1 on: January 24, 2017, 07:43:07 PM »
up
 

scepticus

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Re: Bet selection (flat bet) or progression or both?
« Reply #2 on: January 24, 2017, 11:35:45 PM »
kav
I have previously said that the Bet Selection is the most important factor in roulette - and possibly in ANY form of gambling .  I have already expressed the opinion  that a one step progression is acceptable to me so I agree that 
"If a bet selection works with flat betting it can work even better with some kind of progression. I am sure of this "
 My concern is the Table Bank needed for "wagering plans ". I think that a table bank of one thousand or more is more suited to an amusement arcade than a  casino . If we are talking about units of 1 anyway. I will upset some when I say  that all too many progression methods proposed in the forum are forms of chasing losses.
just my " tuppence worth " !
 

Bayes

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Re: Bet selection (flat bet) or progression or both?
« Reply #3 on: January 25, 2017, 08:22:01 AM »
A favourable bet selection is ideal, but in my opinion there is no such animal when you're talking about random outcomes. This is because, by definition, random outcomes are unpredictable, so there can be no factors which act as "predictors" for the next bet or series of bets.

As you learn in statistics 101 courses, "correlation is not causation". Correlation means that one factor or variable "goes with" another. There are many correlations in roulette; for example the number of hits on the third column tend to be correlated with the number of hits on red (more so than the other columns, because there are more reds in it), but these kinds of correlations don't give you a favourable bet selection. There are different kinds of correlations though, and if it were possible for there to be some kind of serial correlation, "serial" meaning that some past outcomes were correlated with future outcomes, then there would be some hope. However, to discover such correlations you would have to look at physical variables (dealer or ball changes, etc).

Why? because in that case you're not relying merely on correlation, but also causation.

I don't think that progressions necessarily mean chasing losses; you may as well say that they mean "chasing wins". Nor do they have to rely on the gambler's fallacy. You may not be able to get more wins than losses (relative to the payout on a bet), but this is what a well designed progression can make up for. You may not be able to predict what's coming next with any more certainty than random, but the statistical behaviour of a bet can nevertheless be an aid in designing your wagering plan. For example, for an even chance bet 87.5% of outcomes consist of streaks no longer than 3.
 
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scepticus

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Re: Bet selection (flat bet) or progression or both?
« Reply #4 on: January 25, 2017, 11:18:03 AM »
Depends, Bayes, on what you mean by a “favourable bet selection” . If it means a selection that wins on most spins then I agree that it is highly unlikely that there is such a selection. If you mean that there is no selection that   can overcome the unfavourable odds then I disagree.
So far as I am concerned a bet selection is only what you choose to bet and  you must choose something  to bet so isn’t that “ something “a bet selection ?

As for progressions I think it is abundantly clear that most of the progression ideas in this- and other forums- are designed to make up for prior losing bets.
I think that your own particular wagering plan is designed to recover prior losses so, by definition , it is chasing losses and I don’t think that I am indulging in semantics here.

I contend that my Nine Block is correlated . How can it  be otherwise when there is a guarantee of 3 wins in 4 spins ? It reduces the options and I fail to see why that is not an advantage.
More losses than wins can be profitable using Flat Bets if we use the higher odds bets .

Ideas come first - and then the betting strategy . History shows that ideas have disproved the mantra that “ it can’t be done “ . So why not in roulette ?
 
Different strokes for different folks  !
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Bet selection (flat bet) or progression or both?
« Reply #5 on: January 25, 2017, 12:58:14 PM »
Correlation is "dependency". When we say that some factor is correlated, we essentially say that "A" provokes or demands "B". In case of bet selection , let's say we have combination of factors ( be it exact rotor speeds leading to determined ball jump, for example)...
  To sertify ourselves of this correlation beyond a doubt , we have to observe this factor CONSISTENTLY leading to selected outcome ( determined ball jumps).
    So we take data on ocasion 1 ( be it day, mini session or whatever) , select part of sample that has factor ( predictor of interest, rotor speed in this case) and plot on the graph the ball jumps. Then we do such for other ocasion ( day, mini session...ets) and plot values of ball jumps as well.
   Next step is to put our values of the ball jumps side by side with values of ball jumps on other ocasion and look is desired result ( zone that collect ball jumps the most ) is the same. Pearson correlation can be used as well.
  In short , we have to sertify ourselves that this " dependency " exist, can be traced , and it's strong in terms of statistical significance. 
    Then we can be sure that samples are " correlated" and factor ( rotor speed) does in fact produce ball jumps of interest. 
   Same can be done with any other factors , we have a freedom of relating any factor to outcome, as long as we can prove to ourselves that factor is indeed correlated with outcome. It can be numbers itself as a factor ( frequency of their appearance in "x" past spins), or any other.
   Bet selection in this case ( correlation) is not a gamblers fallacy if proven statistically.
 

Jesper

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Re: Bet selection (flat bet) or progression or both?
« Reply #6 on: January 25, 2017, 02:35:25 PM »
On a fair wheel it should not be possible to know the coming numbers. All selection if it is of use is to in a way have information on the future, which is seen in the past. ( This use to be  common using cards as well, but then we pay for the information to the future teller).  What we of best knowing have today, is we can not use the past spins or "read" trends. That can maybe change, but at the day it can be proved, the proof is such a break trough, the person coming up with it will probably get a phonecall from Stockholm in November.

Progressions has some advantages and disadvantages as well. We can play flat bet for 32 spins and win.
A Martingaler can lose the whole bank, even if he play exactly the same numbers as the flat bettor. A martingaler can first win 20 times in a row and after that bust in 12 spins.

 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Bet selection (flat bet) or progression or both?
« Reply #7 on: January 25, 2017, 04:47:48 PM »
On a fair wheel it should not be possible to know the coming numbers. All selection if it is of use is to in a way have information on the future, which is seen in the past. ( This use to be  common using cards as well, but then we pay for the information to the future teller).  What we of best knowing have today, is we can not use the past spins or "read" trends. That can maybe change, but at the day it can be proved, the proof is such a break trough, the person coming up with it will probably get a phonecall from Stockholm in November.

Progressions has some advantages and disadvantages as well. We can play flat bet for 32 spins and win.
A Martingaler can lose the whole bank, even if he play exactly the same numbers as the flat bettor. A martingaler can first win 20 times in a row and after that bust in 12 spins.
Should, if , maybe. .. and if it's not? No one stops you to verify.  I sudjest you to actually verify it, then you will see that " fair wheel" is not that common .
 

Duncan

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Re: Bet selection (flat bet) or progression or both?
« Reply #8 on: January 25, 2017, 06:48:20 PM »
newbielink:https://postimg.org/gallery/qln58vx0/09965db9/ [nonactive]

ONLY flat bet 1 COL in every spin.
in every 100 placed bets is in +

This is what the power of bet selection means.
These RX graphs are only about 500+ spins....
It has passed over 1000 in total so far(including the graphs) with +137 Profit and faced 29 zeros.
Never went more than -22 in any point.
« Last Edit: January 25, 2017, 06:57:02 PM by Duncan »
 

juice

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Re: Bet selection (flat bet) or progression or both?
« Reply #9 on: January 25, 2017, 07:43:36 PM »

ONLY flat bet 1 COL in every spin.
in every 100 placed bets is in +

This is what the power of bet selection means.
These RX graphs are only about 500+ spins....
It has passed over 1000 in total so far(including the graphs) with +137 Profit and faced 29 zeros.
Never went more than -22 in any point.
[/quote]

duncan, can you explain the mechanics of the play?  i.e., follow the last column, or stay put on any one column and flat bet it until profit??   thanks~ juice
« Last Edit: January 25, 2017, 08:19:40 PM by juice »
 

Sputnik

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Re: Bet selection (flat bet) or progression or both?
« Reply #10 on: January 25, 2017, 07:49:26 PM »

 Flat betting is a losers bet ...
 You need to know what to bet after a win and what to bet after a loss ...

 But pepole are mainstream so they will never learn the secret behind betting ...

 Cheers
 

Duncan

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Re: Bet selection (flat bet) or progression or both?
« Reply #11 on: January 25, 2017, 09:46:03 PM »
what I know I that i tested 120 more spins and it made +9 with max down -7
Juice if you want to find the bet go and read win3million pages from the way back machine.
 

scepticus

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Re: Bet selection (flat bet) or progression or both?
« Reply #12 on: January 26, 2017, 02:28:35 AM »

 Flat betting is a losers bet ...
 You need to know what to bet after a win and what to bet after a loss ...

 But pepole are mainstream so they will never learn the secret behind betting ...

 Cheers

I am always willing to learn  new tricks sputnik so will  you share the secret behind betting - and what to bet after a win and after a loss .As you may have noticed from my posts I am far from being in the mainstream. I am usually regarded as a pain in the rectum.
thanks in anticipation.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Bet selection (flat bet) or progression or both?
« Reply #13 on: January 28, 2017, 09:02:41 AM »
In my experience flat and progresive bet selection go together. Only a strategy has the possibility to beat the roulette. In one session I use the statistic anomalies of the ECs , Dozens, Columns and streets. All statistic graphs have a wave shape. This is also the case of the win/loss graph. From graphs you can learn much more than from words. On the forum the roulette theory of systems or trials are seldom explained with clear images.
 

Reyth

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Re: Bet selection (flat bet) or progression or both?
« Reply #14 on: January 28, 2017, 03:19:08 PM »
I agree, there is no "reliable" bet selection.  There is only mathematical odds (coverage) in relation to spin sequences and betting amounts.

What a system does with these sequences and amounts is what determines its worth.

Most recently I was thinking that roulette is like the real world of physics, there is no "free energy"; bet selections take up resources which must be paid for by betting amounts; no bet selection nor money management system can pay for itself in the game of roulette.
 
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