Author Topic: Clustering (Global) Effect  (Read 794 times)

gizmotron

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Clustering (Global) Effect
« on: December 25, 2016, 08:36:28 PM »
Some of you know me. I was invited here to discuss randomness.

About 24 years ago I sat in at a roulette table that was surrounded by three other tables very close by. They all had marquees showing the resulting spins on them. At that time I suspected that spins could land in sectors of the wheel and so I broke the wheel up into three groups and watched how they did. Now one of the groups hardly hit at all on all four tables for three and one half hours. I thought this impossible and bet for it to end on every table that I moved to. I lost a pay check that night betting that this could not last. Thus began my quest to understand streaks that were identifiable because of groupings of numbers.

Many years later I discovered that randomness has characteristics. An example of that could be a long run of reds or odd numbers for instance. This kind of a streak needed a short descriptive identification. In series it would be a stretch of repeats. It would be an absence of singles in series. I needed to know exactly what it was that I was seeing and I needed a bet that would best be applied at the time of seeing the same thing occur. This evolved into skillful method of bet selection and amounts.

But something else happened along the way. There were times when a characteristic would change location, like first dozen to second dozen, or second dozen to third column where the same characteristic remained in dominance. This could be a sleeping dozen or a strong sequence of singles in series. These longer stretches became global in nature. They were everywhere and continuous. So I named them the Global Effect. Others have written about it on line as described as clustering. But nobody brought forward a good way to identify them. I discovered that there are so many characteristics to identify that it was best to use a chart that made them easy to see at a quick glance. Like seeing formations in clouds that look like things like ships sailing across the sky. I can see a streak of reoccurring singles in under one second without having to think what group of dozens they belonged to.

I'm often puzzled by the reactions of others at this point. People in gambling just go blank, with no comments or questions. When these global effect are occurring you can destroy a casino and take very large amounts of money off of them. But for some reason many people just ignore the concept. So my question is, what am I missing here? Is there something that everybody knows that I can't see?

Thanks
« Last Edit: December 25, 2016, 08:43:59 PM by gizmotron »


 
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Birima

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Re: Clustering (Global) Effect
« Reply #1 on: December 25, 2016, 10:42:07 PM »
Sounds like an echo from gamblers glen. Welcome!
« Last Edit: December 26, 2016, 12:32:03 AM by Birima »
 
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gizmotron

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Re: Clustering (Global) Effect
« Reply #2 on: December 26, 2016, 03:47:02 AM »
Yes, The "Global Effect" was first mentioned at GG over ten years ago. I never got past the skeptics there with it. It's a fascinating way to seize the moment for streak players though. Having a continuing phase of the same reoccurring characteristic is no different than running into a sequence that kills a progression. I guess what I'm saying is that there are ways to see it while it's happening. Only a few people in all these years have seen it happening too. And nobody has even bothered to hypothesis how to exploit one if they were to discover that they were in one. I believe most people have not discovered them because they are not looking for them or that the way they look at occurring spins does not allow them to see these reoccurring characteristics in the first place.
 
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Duncan

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Re: Clustering (Global) Effect
« Reply #3 on: December 26, 2016, 09:52:28 AM »
Hello from me .
Mr. Giz. I have read a lot of your posts in forums saying the things you just said here in this thread.

May I ask some questions please?

The Runs and Changes that you recognize do they have certain rules of WHEN to alter the bet selection?
eg. after 2 losses reverse the bet etc?

When you want to bet lets say on Dozens , do you record the dozens movements? Or do you see for example the Ecs movements and this triggers a bet on the dozens?

I have done millions of spins of clusters over at least 8 years and I have never found a bet selection that is superior from the normal -2,7 math disadvantage over the long run.
These bet selections that I used were stable betting on events or altering the bet after 1 or 2 or 3 losses in a row.
NOTHING worked.

I will be pleased to read a reply from you :)
I d like to put me in the right direction.
Thank you in advance.
« Last Edit: December 26, 2016, 09:54:34 AM by Duncan »
 
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Bayes

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Re: Clustering (Global) Effect
« Reply #4 on: December 26, 2016, 12:00:15 PM »
Gizmo, nice to see you posting on this forum. Hope to see more of you here. This is my forum of choice these days and it's relatively troll- free (with the exception of the usual suspects - no need to mention names.  ;) ).

I made a couple of posts over at gamblingforums com but there's too high a noise to signal ratio there for my taste.
« Last Edit: December 28, 2016, 09:53:40 PM by kav »
 
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kav

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Re: Clustering (Global) Effect
« Reply #5 on: December 26, 2016, 12:24:38 PM »
Hello gizmotron and welcome to the forum!

I think the reason this type of discussion produces some sort of awkwardness is that this like so many other concepts have been spoiled/ruined by people trying to exploit the naivety of other people.

As dishonest system sellers have ruined the concept of a system for roulette, likewise people (Gambler's Glen :-) ) claiming they can "read the patterns of randomness" and win every single time, have spoiled the discussion you are trying to start.

In all fairness decoding randomness is not an easy thing to do for most of us. You see, it seems that  for every trend that keeps on, there is a trend that is being broken.

Can't wait to read more from you about the Clustering Effect.
« Last Edit: December 26, 2016, 12:27:12 PM by kav »
 
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gizmotron

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Re: Clustering (Global) Effect
« Reply #6 on: December 26, 2016, 02:26:41 PM »
These are the main points as a list of ways to deal with it. None of them are more or less of significance, as the way to win is to consider them all.

1.) see the characteristics in your data gathering method; (recommending a visual dexterity method)

2.) assess the risk vs reward component within context; (including the relevance of the current status of the session)

3.) probe for a starting point; (and know how to live with what happens)

4.) know that all win streaks come as perfect or very close to perfect when they happen.

5.) all coincidences of a win streak fall apart and end eventually. You must stop risking big when that happens.
 

gizmotron

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Re: Clustering (Global) Effect
« Reply #7 on: December 26, 2016, 02:43:20 PM »
1.) see the characteristics in your data gathering method; (recommending a visual dexterity method)

Look at this method of describing EC spin results:

 WWLWLLLWWLWLWLWWLLWLWLWLWLWL

Now take a look at this way of saying the same thing:

 wwLwLLLwwLwLwLwwLLwLwLwLwLwL

can you see how much easier it is to see the changes in the results?

Now I will show you what my mind sees when I look at my charting method and see a global effect.

In the Ec's:

OOeOeOeOeOeOeOeeLhLhLhLhLhLhLhLhLLOeOeOeOeOeOOrBrBrBrBrBrBrBrBrBBhLhLhLhLhLhLhLhLhLhLL...

When a mini streak runs out the same singles characteristic continues in another EC until the same characteristic occurring ends.

« Last Edit: December 26, 2016, 02:46:27 PM by gizmotron »
 

scepticus

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Re: Clustering (Global) Effect
« Reply #8 on: December 26, 2016, 02:56:26 PM »
I think what you are seeing , giz , is simply random at work and random fools us all  - even mathematicians.
 

gizmotron

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Re: Clustering (Global) Effect
« Reply #9 on: December 26, 2016, 03:03:33 PM »
2.) assess the risk vs reward component within context; (including the relevance of the current status of the session)

When it comes to EC's, I cut my teeth on flat betting the EC's. I learned how to live with the fifty fifty bets. If you are good enough at it you can take $100 into a casino and play for hours if you are betting only $5 per bet and just guessing on the streaks of changes. You will have a few losses in a row and you will have a few connected wins in a row. To do what I do you must become a master at staying alive flat betting. If you quit on an up moment you might have as much as $30 profit for your trouble. You might just never be able to get back to even and might need to walk away at -$30.

If you know how to recover from a single loss, and to live with it if you don't, then you understand how to probe for a win streak. You can't win a win streak if you don't make a speculation bet. So, you can't live with a session where every first attempt gets you a loss either. Well guess what? That is a trend to watch too. You must read the results of all your first attempted bets and the full accumulation of all the attempts in that session. That will tell you how difficult or easy the current session is. In fact you can play through a bad stretch in hopes of getting to a good stretch. If you have the experience to outlive a bad stretch, and have the bankroll to back it up, then you can take advantage of the good change when they come. All it takes is situational awareness.
 

gizmotron

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Re: Clustering (Global) Effect
« Reply #10 on: December 26, 2016, 03:16:12 PM »
I think what you are seeing , giz , is simply random at work and random fools us all  - even mathematicians.

It never fools me. I don't expect it to do anything but what it naturally does. It does not attribute meaning from the association of magical thinking for instance. It won't target me. It won't treat me like a fool. It never has a moment where anything is due. It never predicts a future result. It just takes its pants down at times and asks to be screwed.

I never take a session personally. It's never anything more than attacking existing opportunities to me.

So what I'm suggesting to people is that if they are ignorant of effective methods and techniques, they are not qualified to teach anything but why a thing does not work. It is my experience on gambling forums that these opinions are uninformed and groundless. I've never seen a single critical thinking argument where their blind arguments are debated and established as objective in nature.

So please, go ahead and prove your hypothesis. I'm here to prove mine. And I don't mean to offend anyone doing it. Mathematical statistics can never tell you when a win streak will start, end, or how long it will last. The same goes for magical thinking ideas like axioms and superstitions.
« Last Edit: December 26, 2016, 03:18:23 PM by gizmotron »
 

scepticus

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Re: Clustering (Global) Effect
« Reply #11 on: December 26, 2016, 03:28:10 PM »
A chart , giz , IS a mathematical  statistic.
 

gizmotron

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Re: Clustering (Global) Effect
« Reply #12 on: December 26, 2016, 03:50:53 PM »
3.) probe for a starting point; (and know how to live with what happens)

So I go into a casino, sit down and buy in for 200 chips. I can use one chip on EC bets as the table minimum is $5. I start charting results for the three EC's and the two sets of dozen/column bets, the outside bets. I'm looking for short termed trends in the sleepers and singles and for the longer termed global effect of clustering smaller streaks together of the same characteristic. I also check for any perfect occurring patterns that might be starting up.

Based on my experience of needing only to win the first bet of any streak in order to get started, I use the formation of the beginnings of all streaks as seeing them as a double, triple, quad, as 2's, 3's, 4's etc... You should also check to see if there are swarms of the sizes. there could be an endless supply of doubles and triples but no appearances of 4's and higher. This can go on for an hour or more. This overlooked phase of small clumping is a global effect type of clustering also.

Your mind must be trained to look for favorable coincidences. I figured out these observation points all by myself. Any time you can find any continuous thing occurring you can figure out a bet that will give you a huge win.

So the point of my hypothesis is simple. Can you see a continuing occurring coincidence? If you can, then can you devise a bet scheme that takes advantage of the coincidence as long as it does continue? Can you live with the result once it ends?  I get the opinion that people can't live with the losses because they don't know the nature of all the coincidences that are favorable and that go undiscovered. So they get a few losses in a row and they can't live with those results. An experienced player knows when to attack or to back off. How can anyone teach a player to be experienced? To win a huge worthwhile win a player must be aware of the experience and expectation of attacking with much larger bets than the standard probing bets. There is no point in this if the player lacks playing experience and proper observation of opportunistic moments.
 

gizmotron

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Re: Clustering (Global) Effect
« Reply #13 on: December 26, 2016, 03:57:59 PM »
A chart , giz , IS a mathematical  statistic.

Please make your point as information far more informative than "A chart." Do "statistics" as you suggest refer to probability in your statement or just data gathering? If it is just data gathering then I agree completely.

My charts don't contain an operator and therefore don't qualify as mathematical in nature.
« Last Edit: December 26, 2016, 04:02:02 PM by gizmotron »
 

gizmotron

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Re: Clustering (Global) Effect
« Reply #14 on: December 26, 2016, 04:12:36 PM »
4.) know that all win streaks come as perfect or very close to perfect when they happen.

I never speculate on patterns or trends that occur as less than 75% in quality. You can have a thing known to me as a dominance. Others here might describe them differently. You might have a situation where black is hitting in a dominant streak but not a perfect one. You can do smaller bets and just ride this dominance until it ends or something better starts up. With EC bets its easy. A loss is a signal of change unless it is part of a diminished percentage of an effective dominance. It's not as easy if you are betting on double dozens or double columns to win. That is where I make my stand on trends. I love betting on 24 to 26 numbers to win.